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| | | | |-+  Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
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Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 5225 times)
KingSweden
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« Reply #100 on: September 11, 2016, 12:55:42 pm »

NH seems too generous to Trump, AZ and GA seem way to generous to Clinton.
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« Reply #101 on: September 11, 2016, 12:58:01 pm »

Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.

Marist uses live interviewers and interviews in Spanish.  So there should be no issue surveying Spanish language Latino voters.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #102 on: September 11, 2016, 01:03:47 pm »

Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.

Marist uses live interviewers and interviews in Spanish.  So there should be no issue surveying Spanish language Latino voters.

Thanks for the correction!

So--- is Nevada basically a toss-up or just that undecideds  tend to break Democrat?

This is basically the best polling firm to survey Nevada in some time, and I'm completely buying the "non-college white voter theory" for this state in particular yet, so curious what explanations there would be for this result.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #103 on: September 11, 2016, 01:12:40 pm »

Nevada is a toss-up. We've known that for a while now.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #104 on: September 11, 2016, 01:17:57 pm »

As for the polls, NH is an outlier.

The other three are interesting though, and we keep on seeing this very narrow Clinton lead bordering on a tie in NV coupled with a very narrow Trump lead bordering on a tie in AZ. Nevada was 15 points to the left of Arizona in 2012, so what gives here?
Education gap, plus abysmal Hispani turnout in AZ.
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« Reply #105 on: September 11, 2016, 01:43:41 pm »

538 added +2 towards Trump.
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dspNY
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« Reply #106 on: September 11, 2016, 01:56:51 pm »

The RV numbers for reference

Arizona

Clinton 41, Trump 40 (2-way)
Clinton 37, Trump 37, Johnson 13, Stein 4 (4-way)

Georgia

Clinton 44, Trump 44 (2-way)
Clinton 42, Trump 41, Johnson 11 (4-way)

Nevada

Clinton 46, Trump 41 (2-way)
Clinton 41, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 3 (4-way)*

New Hampshire

Clinton 40, Trump 40 (2-way)
Clinton 37, Trump 36, Johnson 17, Stein 3 (4-way)

*Stein is not on the ballot in NV
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #107 on: September 11, 2016, 03:17:13 pm »

Hmmm....

So now we're back to more of a "traditional" scenario where Dems do better with RVs than LVs, so pollster LV modeling starts to move front and center.

Additionally, it looks like turnout and GOTV could actually make GA and AZ competitive, despite Trump's recent consolidation of Republican support in many states.
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Devils30
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« Reply #108 on: September 11, 2016, 03:42:33 pm »

We are going to get at least one state where the polls are off by 7% on election night
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #109 on: September 11, 2016, 05:31:40 pm »

Nevada usually breaks D late. Harry Reid has won some elections that the experts expected him to lose due to slight leads for opponents. 
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« Reply #110 on: September 11, 2016, 05:42:13 pm »

Any crosstabs?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #111 on: September 11, 2016, 05:48:42 pm »

Stein shouldn't have been included in the NV poll, as she is not on the ballot. NOTA however should have.
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matthew27
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« Reply #112 on: September 11, 2016, 06:15:28 pm »

I don't trust the Nv results. Clinton is very likely ahead 3-4 points.
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« Reply #113 on: September 11, 2016, 06:15:56 pm »

I don't trust the Nv results. Clinton is very likely ahead 3-4 points.
Why because you don't like the results?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #114 on: September 11, 2016, 07:07:00 pm »

Any crosstabs?
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/911-trump-and-clinton-in-close-contests-in-arizona-georgia-nevada-and-new-hampshire/

Marist has them. Interesting look at Georgia. Sadly surprised how much white college grads are sticking with Trump. I called out some numbers.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/GAPolls/GA160906/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Georgia_Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables%20of%20Adults%20and%20Registered%20Voters_September%202016.pdf

Whites
Clinton 24
Trump 64

Whites college graduates
Clinton 31
Trump 56

Whites non college graduate
Clinton 19
Trump 70

Conservative
Clinton 22
Trump 70
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Gass3268
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« Reply #115 on: September 11, 2016, 07:18:59 pm »

I know you shouldn't get too bogged down by crosstabs, but Clinton is doing better among Likely Voters in Washoe County, NV than Clark County, NV. lol
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #116 on: September 11, 2016, 07:39:50 pm »

Stein shouldn't have been included in the NV poll, as she is not on the ballot. NOTA however should have.

Gass is again on the mark.... unique to NV but still gets anywhere from 1-4% on any given Presidential GE.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #117 on: September 12, 2016, 07:09:35 am »

Any crosstabs?
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/911-trump-and-clinton-in-close-contests-in-arizona-georgia-nevada-and-new-hampshire/

Marist has them. Interesting look at Georgia. Sadly surprised how much white college grads are sticking with Trump. I called out some numbers.

Whites
Clinton 24
Trump 64

Whites college graduates
Clinton 31
Trump 56

Whites non college graduate
Clinton 19
Trump 70

Conservative
Clinton 22
Trump 70

That means 25% of whites for Clinton (20% in 2012; 23% in 2004/2008), with enough left to potentially get her to 27%. Twenty-seven is the magic number in Georgia this year...arguably even less if anywhere near 10% of voters actually go for Johnson.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #118 on: September 12, 2016, 12:09:49 pm »

Not sure if it makes a difference, but I realized I was using the registered voter pdf. This is likely voter.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/GAPolls/GA160906/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Georgia_Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_September%202016.pdf

Whites
Clinton 24
Trump 65

Whites college graduates
Clinton 32
Trump 57

Whites non college graduate
Clinton 18
Trump 72

Conservative
Clinton 18
Trump 75

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/09/11/donald-trump-opens-campaign-headquarters-in-sandy-springs/
Trump is also opening a Sandy Springs office to shore up his weak support among the educated in North Fulton.
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dspNY
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« Reply #119 on: September 12, 2016, 12:27:44 pm »

Some context to this poll and the other Georgia polls...

Trump is opening a campaign office in Sandy Springs (just north of ATL) so the smoke about Georgia being a battleground is now fire because he is more reluctant to open campaign offices

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/09/11/donald-trump-opens-campaign-headquarters-in-sandy-springs/
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #120 on: September 12, 2016, 12:31:49 pm »

Some context to this poll and the other Georgia polls...

Trump is opening a campaign office in Sandy Springs (just north of ATL) so the smoke about Georgia being a battleground is now fire because he is more reluctant to open campaign offices

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/09/11/donald-trump-opens-campaign-headquarters-in-sandy-springs/
We just opened an office in Hudson, MA so does that mean that it's Battleground MA
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dspNY
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« Reply #121 on: September 12, 2016, 12:34:27 pm »

Some context to this poll and the other Georgia polls...

Trump is opening a campaign office in Sandy Springs (just north of ATL) so the smoke about Georgia being a battleground is now fire because he is more reluctant to open campaign offices

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/09/11/donald-trump-opens-campaign-headquarters-in-sandy-springs/
We just opened an office in Hudson, MA so does that mean that it's Battleground MA

You're just wasting money
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #122 on: September 12, 2016, 01:21:25 pm »

NH seems too generous to Trump, AZ and GA seem way to generous to Clinton.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #123 on: September 12, 2016, 01:44:02 pm »

Some context to this poll and the other Georgia polls...

Trump is opening a campaign office in Sandy Springs (just north of ATL) so the smoke about Georgia being a battleground is now fire because he is more reluctant to open campaign offices

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/09/11/donald-trump-opens-campaign-headquarters-in-sandy-springs/
We just opened an office in Hudson, MA so does that mean that it's Battleground MA

You're just wasting money
Hillary has an office in Boston, does that mean that she is wasting money?
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dspNY
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« Reply #124 on: September 12, 2016, 01:44:39 pm »

Some context to this poll and the other Georgia polls...

Trump is opening a campaign office in Sandy Springs (just north of ATL) so the smoke about Georgia being a battleground is now fire because he is more reluctant to open campaign offices

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/09/11/donald-trump-opens-campaign-headquarters-in-sandy-springs/
We just opened an office in Hudson, MA so does that mean that it's Battleground MA

You're just wasting money
Hillary has an office in Boston, does that mean that she is wasting money?

Yes, Massachusetts is noncompetitive, unlike Georgia
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