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  Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
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Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 6303 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #75 on: September 11, 2016, 04:01:51 am »

Does Marist usually publish a poll on Saturday night?
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #76 on: September 11, 2016, 04:06:00 am »

Alright, these polls are real, but still incredibly sketchy. Yes, they're data points and should be added, but I'll be stunned if these four states are anywhere near each other. NV/NH should be substantially more Democratic than AZ/GA.
2016 has been a very...abnormal? year

Remember when everyone was preparing for a Bush vs. Clinton snoozefest?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #77 on: September 11, 2016, 04:07:26 am »

Does Marist usually publish a poll on Saturday night?

No, but I guess they do on Sunday.

Also notice that the guy from MSNBC (if this account is real) posted it yesterday, because he probably thought that nobody would find it anyway ...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #78 on: September 11, 2016, 04:53:17 am »

If true, TN volunteer, delete your account immediately! Cheesy

Don't forget, that Marist also had D+2 house effect.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #79 on: September 11, 2016, 06:04:57 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 06:35:34 am by Fusionmunster »

I guess these are the head to heads.
Among registered voters:
AZ: HRC 41, Trump 40
GA: Trump 44, HRC 44
NV: HRC 46, Trump 41
NH: HRC 40, Trump 40
Among Likely Voters:
AZ: Trump 42, HRC 41
GA: Trump 46, HRC 43
NV: HRC 45, Trump 44
NH: HRC 42, Trump 41

https://mobile.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Edit: Oh, these might just be head to heads.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #80 on: September 11, 2016, 06:18:38 am »

Good news are the presidential numbers but I highly doubt the Senate numbers.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #81 on: September 11, 2016, 06:28:57 am »

We're a week past Labor Day and Johnson is still in the 8-17% range in all of these states. Just saying.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #82 on: September 11, 2016, 06:30:09 am »

So it is true Shocked
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-trump-deadlocked-battleground-states-polls-n646216

2-way:








4-way, LV:
Arizona                T+2
Georgia               T+2
Nevada                T+1
New Hampshire    C+2
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #83 on: September 11, 2016, 06:40:55 am »

Pretty good numbers for Trump, if you take Marist D +2.0 house effect (according to 538) into account Cheesy

According to 538 before Marist polls, Polling average/Adjusted polling average:
AR: T+1.5/T+2.8
GA: T+2.6/T+3.6
NE: C+1.5/C+0.9
NH: C+6.3/T+5.7
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #84 on: September 11, 2016, 08:29:38 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

Of course they are. Georgia and Arizona were never truly competitive.

LOL. First you use the poll to make that argument, then you ignore the poll. Good job
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #85 on: September 11, 2016, 08:39:13 am »

If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).

I added them, but since Stein isn't on the ballot in NV, I added the 2-way numbers to the database. So NV stays red... for now.

Thx for adding them, but I don't agree with your reasoning.

You are now ignoring 2 candidates, not just 1. Johnson is getting double-digits in NV, so this poll should have been added. Just leave away the Stein percentage.

PS: I find it funny that pollsters have no clue which candidates are on the ballot in some states ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #86 on: September 11, 2016, 08:43:51 am »

If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).

I added them, but since Stein isn't on the ballot in NV, I added the 2-way numbers to the database. So NV stays red... for now.

Thx for adding them, but I don't agree with your reasoning.

You are now ignoring 2 candidates, not just 1. Johnson is getting double-digits in NV, so this poll should have been added. Just leave away the Stein percentage.

PS: I find it funny that pollsters have no clue which candidates are on the ballot in some states ... Tongue

Okay, so should the Stein voters count as "undecided" then?

Nope, just leave her out.

Add Clinton, Trump, Johnson, Undecided.

Doesn't matter if it's not adding up to 100%.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #87 on: September 11, 2016, 08:59:12 am »

Yep, NV is still close.

News at 11.
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Virginia
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« Reply #88 on: September 11, 2016, 09:44:54 am »


Let's just assume that you are right here - Why would you post this? What purpose does it serve to out him? What if he gets in trouble? What purpose did it serve to put him through that trouble? You don't need to post links or names to verify it.

You & users quoting you should delete your posts on this.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #89 on: September 11, 2016, 09:48:33 am »


Let's just assume that you are right here - Why would you post this? What purpose does it serve to out him? What if he gets in trouble? What purpose did it serve to put him through that trouble? You don't need to post links or names to verify it.

You & users quoting you should delete your posts on this.
NBC http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-regrets-calling-half-trump-supporters-basket-deplorables-n646126 has those links as well...
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Virginia
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« Reply #90 on: September 11, 2016, 09:59:29 am »


It's not necessarily about those links but the person's name and association to this stuff+forum. I thought I was pretty clear on that?
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cinyc
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« Reply #91 on: September 11, 2016, 11:46:01 am »


Let's just assume that you are right here - Why would you post this? What purpose does it serve to out him? What if he gets in trouble? What purpose did it serve to put him through that trouble? You don't need to post links or names to verify it.

You & users quoting you should delete your posts on this.

The source link was already out on other websites, including RRHelections, before I posted it. 

Scribd is a public website.  It's newsworthy if someone with connections to a pollster or news organization publicly posts polls there.  And people were looking for a source for these polls.
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Virginia
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« Reply #92 on: September 11, 2016, 12:34:24 pm »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:41:15 pm by Virginia »

The source link was already out on other websites, including RRHelections, before I posted it.  

Scribd is a public website.  It's newsworthy if someone with connections to a pollster or news organization publicly posts polls there.  And people were looking for a source for these polls.

As I stated before, it's not really about the scibd links so much as the guy's name. If you think that guy = amdcpus (??), why would you post it telling everyone? Why not respect the guy's privacy? Unless he publicly states/allows it, it's no one's business to go posting user's names here.
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cinyc
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« Reply #93 on: September 11, 2016, 12:39:36 pm »

The source link was already out on other websites, including RRHelections, before I posted it. 

Scribd is a public website.  It's newsworthy if someone with connections to a pollster or news organization publicly posts polls there.  And people were looking for a source for these polls.

As I stated before, it's not really about the scibd links so much as the guy's name. If you think that guy = amdcpus (??), why would you post it telling everyone? Why not respect the guy's privacy?

I don't think the guy is amdcpus.  amdcpus had the ABC News poll early, too, because of a Washington Post screw-up.

The guy's name is relevant because anyone can post to scribd.  All scribd posts are associated with an account.  If it is some pollster or media member's account, it is more likely that the poll isn't made up.  Thus, it is relevant information - and nothing that someone who didn't click on the scribd link couldn't find out.
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Virginia
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« Reply #94 on: September 11, 2016, 12:41:02 pm »

I don't think the guy is amdcpus.  amdcpus had the ABC News poll early, too, because of a Washington Post screw-up.

The guy's name is relevant because anyone can post to scribd.  All scribd posts are associated with an account.  If it is some pollster or media member's account, it is more likely that the poll isn't made up.  Thus, it is relevant information - and nothing that someone who didn't click on the scribd link couldn't find out.

fair enough
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dspNY
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« Reply #95 on: September 11, 2016, 12:43:33 pm »

As for the polls, NH is an outlier.

The other three are interesting though, and we keep on seeing this very narrow Clinton lead bordering on a tie in NV coupled with a very narrow Trump lead bordering on a tie in AZ. Nevada was 15 points to the left of Arizona in 2012, so what gives here?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #96 on: September 11, 2016, 12:47:52 pm »

First Marist poll of these states so we can't really compare their polling history in any of these states.

However, results look consistent with a Trump +3-4 lead in Arizona looking at other recent pollsters and national numbers. Georgia, Trump +4-5 in Georgia with consolidation of the Republican base and relatively low levels of 3rd party support.

Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.

New Hampshire looks a bit off... it does make intuitive sense that the race has tightened there, mainly because of a dropoff of Clinton supporters to 3rd party candidates, but not buying it being this close.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #97 on: September 11, 2016, 12:55:42 pm »

NH seems too generous to Trump, AZ and GA seem way to generous to Clinton.
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cinyc
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« Reply #98 on: September 11, 2016, 12:58:01 pm »

Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.

Marist uses live interviewers and interviews in Spanish.  So there should be no issue surveying Spanish language Latino voters.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #99 on: September 11, 2016, 01:03:47 pm »

Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.

Marist uses live interviewers and interviews in Spanish.  So there should be no issue surveying Spanish language Latino voters.

Thanks for the correction!

So--- is Nevada basically a toss-up or just that undecideds  tend to break Democrat?

This is basically the best polling firm to survey Nevada in some time, and I'm completely buying the "non-college white voter theory" for this state in particular yet, so curious what explanations there would be for this result.
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