Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 22, 2019, 03:15:16 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 Print
Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 5276 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: September 10, 2016, 11:37:40 pm »

That's not a link...
Logged
amdcpus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 270

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: September 10, 2016, 11:39:25 pm »

That's not a link...

Sorry, but that's the most I'll show you. You can verify for yourself when they release.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: September 10, 2016, 11:39:41 pm »

These polls do sound off but I love the rush of Hillary supporters trying to unskew any poll that shows a negative result for her

not sure being in the margin of error in two states Romney won by nearly 10 points could possibly be considered "a negative result".
Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,709
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:24 pm »


You honestly could have copy-pasted a poll from earlier into a text editor and changed the indicated date before uploading. I'll need to see something with a bit more reliability.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,623


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 pm »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:54 pm »

That's not a link...

Sorry, but that's the most I'll show you. You can verify for yourself when they release.

I see.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: September 10, 2016, 11:42:08 pm »

I guess we'll see tomorrow.
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: September 10, 2016, 11:42:17 pm »

That's not a link...
Probably an embargoed copy.

Mirrors the sample shown here for the RV polls on 8/15 to some extent, but that poll was LV: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL160803/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202016.pdf#page=2

It would take a lot of work to cut and paste things and additional LV language to just show that page for Georgia.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2016, 11:44:29 pm by Seriously? »Logged
amdcpus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 270

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: September 10, 2016, 11:46:21 pm »

http://m.imgur.com/rsGEIRd,NmTzMej
Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,709
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: September 10, 2016, 11:49:53 pm »

^ Okay. That being said someone needs to hyper-analyze the crosstabs for NH and AZ when they are released.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,411
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.68, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: September 10, 2016, 11:50:45 pm »

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: September 10, 2016, 11:54:33 pm »

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
I'd tend to agree, but the OP did have the WaPo numbers before they were released as well. The WaPo jumped the gun on the embargo, but he had the numbers before that story was posted.
Logged
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,035


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: September 10, 2016, 11:58:22 pm »

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...

RCP is notoriously erratic when it comes to posting polls. People more conspiratorially-minded than I might point out that they're often posted when someone with insider knowledge could make the most money on Predictit, but I digress.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 12:00:06 am by Doctor Imperialism »Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,220
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: September 10, 2016, 11:59:47 pm »

These polls make zero sense.  All of these within 2 to 3 points of each other.  Yeah that don't sound right.
Logged
Devout Centrist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,371
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: September 11, 2016, 12:00:40 am »

OP is having an affair with Frank Underwood.
Logged
Mallow
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 765
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 am »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 12:04:09 am by Mallow »Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,623


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: September 11, 2016, 12:11:45 am »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.
Logged
Mallow
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 765
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: September 11, 2016, 12:14:41 am »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.

If you want me to say it's not impossible... well, it's not impossible. There are examples of such swings in the past. But given a) the rarity with which it happens, b) the relative steadiness of two of the states' PVIs (GA and NH) in the past several elections, c) other polling which disagrees, and d) demographic arguments, it seems highly improbable.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 12:20:31 am by Mallow »Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,952
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,907
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,492


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: September 11, 2016, 12:18:28 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

If all 4 are close, Ohio implodes.
Logged
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: September 11, 2016, 12:18:46 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

Of course they are. Georgia and Arizona were never truly competitive.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,151
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: September 11, 2016, 12:32:15 am »

Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?

Thx.
Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,709
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: September 11, 2016, 12:36:21 am »

Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?

Thx.

He's not able or willing to do so.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,623


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 am »

I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn.  So this probably checks out.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 12:44:09 am by cinyc »Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines