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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 6327 times)
Mallow
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« on: September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 pm »
« edited: September 11, 2016, 12:01:54 am by Mallow »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the margin for each state compared to the national margin for the respective election have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

For Trump to be +2 in AZ and +1 in NV, those two states would have to swing more than 14 points with respect to each other in one cycle, which has happened once since 1940 (1976 -> 1980). The second largest swing was about 13 points with respect to each other between 2004 and 2008. Most swings have been significantly smaller--since 1940, not including the 13 and 15 point swings previously mentioned, the average swing has been 4.9 points from one election to the next.

Likewise, GA and NH would have to swing more than 9 points with respect to each other, which hasn't happened since the 1992 -> 1996 elections. They've actually been remarkably steady with respect to each other since 1996 (varying between a 10 and 18 point margin separation)
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Mallow
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Posts: 739
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2016, 11:30:52 pm »
« Edited: September 10, 2016, 11:36:29 pm by Mallow »

These polls do sound off but I love the rush of Hillary supporters trying to unskew any poll that shows a negative result for her

What on Earth are you talking about? Most in this thread said exactly what you said (that the polls "sound off"), or expressed no opinion on the poll's merits one way or the other. Where's this supposed "rush of Hillary supporters trying to unskew" the polls, exactly? In fact, I don't think there's a single post in here (amongst either Clinton or Trump supporters) that tries to adjust the polling numbers based on demographics, or anything else.
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Mallow
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:04:09 am by Mallow »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.
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Mallow
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Posts: 739
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2016, 12:14:41 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:20:31 am by Mallow »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.

If you want me to say it's not impossible... well, it's not impossible. There are examples of such swings in the past. But given a) the rarity with which it happens, b) the relative steadiness of two of the states' PVIs (GA and NH) in the past several elections, c) other polling which disagrees, and d) demographic arguments, it seems highly improbable.
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