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  Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 6918 times)
NOVA Green
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« on: September 11, 2016, 12:47:52 pm »

First Marist poll of these states so we can't really compare their polling history in any of these states.

However, results look consistent with a Trump +3-4 lead in Arizona looking at other recent pollsters and national numbers. Georgia, Trump +4-5 in Georgia with consolidation of the Republican base and relatively low levels of 3rd party support.

Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.

New Hampshire looks a bit off... it does make intuitive sense that the race has tightened there, mainly because of a dropoff of Clinton supporters to 3rd party candidates, but not buying it being this close.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2016, 01:03:47 pm »

Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.

Marist uses live interviewers and interviews in Spanish.  So there should be no issue surveying Spanish language Latino voters.

Thanks for the correction!

So--- is Nevada basically a toss-up or just that undecideds  tend to break Democrat?

This is basically the best polling firm to survey Nevada in some time, and I'm completely buying the "non-college white voter theory" for this state in particular yet, so curious what explanations there would be for this result.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2016, 03:17:13 pm »

Hmmm....

So now we're back to more of a "traditional" scenario where Dems do better with RVs than LVs, so pollster LV modeling starts to move front and center.

Additionally, it looks like turnout and GOTV could actually make GA and AZ competitive, despite Trump's recent consolidation of Republican support in many states.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2016, 07:39:50 pm »

Stein shouldn't have been included in the NV poll, as she is not on the ballot. NOTA however should have.

Gass is again on the mark.... unique to NV but still gets anywhere from 1-4% on any given Presidential GE.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2016, 03:44:03 pm »

Some context to this poll and the other Georgia polls...

Trump is opening a campaign office in Sandy Springs (just north of ATL) so the smoke about Georgia being a battleground is now fire because he is more reluctant to open campaign offices

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/09/11/donald-trump-opens-campaign-headquarters-in-sandy-springs/
We just opened an office in Hudson, MA so does that mean that it's Battleground MA

You're just wasting money
Hillary has an office in Boston, does that mean that she is wasting money?

Yes, Massachusetts is noncompetitive, unlike Georgia

Nothing is wrong with opening offices in "safe states" assuming that those resources are primarily aimed at phone banking for actual swing states, and plus some resources going into supporting competitive Senate/House and state elections.
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