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  Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 6346 times)
Seriously?
YaBB God
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« on: September 10, 2016, 10:50:51 pm »

I don't see these numbers. Where are you getting them from?
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Seriously?
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,029
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2016, 11:04:46 pm »

Mark Murray hasnt said anything about a poll, and hes usually my go to guy for NBC polls. But maybe they got leaked?

Possibly, but then why does only OP have the numbers? I don't see anything about any Marist polls anywhere. I'm inclined to believe them though, because he found the ABC/WaPo poll early.
The OP is down with Wikileaks? Smiley
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Seriously?
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,029
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2016, 11:23:39 pm »

So McCain is outperforming Trump by 17 points... yeah, I need a link for this ASAP.
McCain for whatever his shortcomings are is the incumbent. I don't doubt these numbers if he got ABC News right first.
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Seriously?
YaBB God
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2016, 11:28:00 pm »

I dont think this is legit, arent they just going into the field now?
You'd think NBC would want something for Meet the Depressed in the morning. OP did nail the WaPo numbers.
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Seriously?
YaBB God
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2016, 11:42:17 pm »
« Edited: September 10, 2016, 11:44:29 pm by Seriously? »

Probably an embargoed copy.

Mirrors the sample shown here for the RV polls on 8/15 to some extent, but that poll was LV: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL160803/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202016.pdf#page=2

It would take a lot of work to cut and paste things and additional LV language to just show that page for Georgia.
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Seriously?
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,029
United States


« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2016, 11:54:33 pm »

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
I'd tend to agree, but the OP did have the WaPo numbers before they were released as well. The WaPo jumped the gun on the embargo, but he had the numbers before that story was posted.
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Seriously?
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,029
United States


« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2016, 12:52:45 am »

You just said what I thought. Didn't want to out the guy. I thank him for the gift though.
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Seriously?
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,029
United States


« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2016, 01:28:29 am »

If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).
I'd wait for the official releases, even if this seems credible.

NV should roughly be in the tossup range right now looking at the state of recent data. There are two datapoints (both small internet polls, one Ipsos, one Google, one pro-Trump, one-pro Clinton) that shows a lead outside of 5% on either side with 538 total. Not sure what our definition is here, but for me it's +5 to get it out of tossup, with a tossup/slight lean designation at about +2/3.
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