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  2016 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
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Author Topic: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19  (Read 1851 times)
Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
IndyRep
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« on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:05 pm »
« edited: September 11, 2016, 07:34:30 am by TN volunteer »

New Hampshire
52% Kelly Ayotte (R, inc.)
44% Maggie Hassan (D)

Nevada
47% Joe Heck (R)
45% Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)

Georgia
53% Johnny Isakson (R, inc.)
38% Jim Barksdale (D)

Arizona
57% John McCain (R, inc.)
38% Ann Kirkpatrick (D)

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-trump-deadlocked-battleground-states-polls-n646216?cid=sm_twitter_feed_politics
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2016, 11:44:49 pm »

Nevada and Georgia look right but New Hampshire and especially Arizona don't.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2016, 11:45:15 pm »

I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2016, 11:52:30 pm »

I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the angry women theory, right?
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2016, 11:54:24 pm »

I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the angry women theory, right?

The same poll has Clinton up 1 over Trump, but we all know that she's leading him by at least 5 in the state. Ayotte can keep it close because she's a woman, but she can't win. Most undecideds are likely closeted Hassan supporters. Still Safe D.
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FM Scott🦋
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2016, 11:54:36 pm »

I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the angry women theory, right?

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the "socialist by association" theory, right?
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2016, 11:55:10 pm »

Junk.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2016, 11:57:49 pm »

I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the angry women theory, right?

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the "socialist by association" theory, right?

Not relevant. I wasn't referring to the content of this apparent poll, but to the fact you think the media had some ulterior motive in conducting this poll assuming they did indeed conduct it, which is utterly ludricious.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2016, 12:57:45 am »

I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn.  So this probably checks out.

So what happened to Kirkpatrick?
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2016, 01:18:52 am »

McCain was never going to lose that race anyway.
Two years ago I classified the race as safe McCain. Not changing that classification now in spite of Kirkpatrick's qualities.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2016, 01:23:19 am »

Yeah, I know he's favored, but this margin probably isn't even in Seriously's wildest dreams.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2016, 01:55:11 am »

Yeah, I know he's favored, but this margin probably isn't even in Seriously's wildest dreams.

Imagine what Donnelly's poll numbers would have looked like had Lugar managed to beat Mourdoch.



These numbers are probably excessive, but they aren't really surprising.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2016, 06:11:19 am »

From Mark Murray on twitter:
SEN in NBC/WSJ/Marist polls (among LVs)
AZ: McCain 57, Kirkp 38
GA: Isakson 53, Barksdale 38
NV: Heck 47, Masto 45
NH: Ayotte 52, Hassan 44

So all these numbers are right.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2016, 07:51:30 am »

He's defeated 4 incumbent Senators Udall, Landrieu, Hagen & Pryor, the Dems will defeat Toomey, Ayotte, Johnson & Kirk.
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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2016, 02:06:31 pm »

New Hampshire could easily be an outlier.
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Republicans for Buttigieg
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2016, 03:27:21 pm »

McCain is getting a primary bounce that will fade on his way to a comfortable 8-point win. Nevada and Georgia sound right. NH is probably an outlier - all indications are that race is very close, but Ayotte should overperform Trump decently.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2016, 06:25:35 pm »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 09:06:45 pm by Da-Jon »

NH Gov race is 4 pts. Sununu may very well win. But Hassan will be the victor
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2016, 07:42:15 pm »

Looking at the crosstabs for Arizona, some really weird numbers.

Latinos: McCain +9 (2012: Obama +49/Carmona +46)
Women: McCain +14 (2012: Romney +7/Carmona +1)
18 to 29: McCain +11 (2012: Obama +27/Carmona +18)
Moderates: McCain +8 (2012: Obama +5/Carmona +16)

Going to need another poll to confirm this.


http://maristpoll.marist.edu/911-trump-and-clinton-in-close-contests-in-arizona-georgia-nevada-and-new-hampshire/
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2016, 07:49:28 pm »

WHOA, Ayotte is winning men 62%-35% and only losing NH females by 11. Those are exactly the kind of numbers she needs, but I doubt that she will get them on election day.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2016, 08:23:30 pm »

WHOA, Ayotte is winning men 62%-35% and only losing NH females by 11. Those are exactly the kind of numbers she needs, but I doubt that she will get them on election day.
That just proves its a junk poll.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2016, 08:36:17 pm »

WHOA, Ayotte is winning men 62%-35% and only losing NH females by 11. Those are exactly the kind of numbers she needs, but I doubt that she will get them on election day.
That just proves its a junk poll.

Agreed. Democrats have a hard floor with males in NH (45% or so).
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olowakandi
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2016, 09:19:51 pm »

NH likes Ayotte and Hassan. But, Hassan is running in a very blue presidential state like NH
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whitesox130
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2016, 10:25:12 pm »

WHOA, Ayotte is winning men 62%-35% and only losing NH females by 11. Those are exactly the kind of numbers she needs, but I doubt that she will get them on election day.
That just proves its a junk poll.

Agreed. Democrats have a hard floor with males in NH (45% or so).
Ayotte had to have won males by more than that in 2010.

Anyway, assuming these aren't junk (I don't know much about Marist), excellent news!
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olowakandi
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2016, 10:43:43 pm »

PPP polls have been more reliable, I doubt Ayotte lead holds up through election with Dems GOTV effort in early voting.

They have Clinton tied in AZ and GA and Ayotte and Heck winning.
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