CBS/YouGov: Clinton +7 in Ohio, Clinton +2 in Florida

[dspNY]

Ohio:

Clinton 46
Trump 39
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Florida:

Clinton 44
Trump 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

13 state battleground tracker: Clinton 43, Trump 42

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Compared to last week

Ohio:
Clinton 46  (+0)
Trump 39   (-1)
Johnson 7
Stein 2     

Florida:
Clinton 44 (-1)
Trump 42  (+2)
Johnson 5
Stein 2

13 state battleground tracker:
Clinton 43 (+0)
Trump 42 (+1)

[Classic Conservative]

Wait why is Ohio only 78% White. It's 85% White

[Sbane]

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.

[Classic Conservative]

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.

Ohio is 7% more African-American in this sample than IRL

[yeah_93]

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.

Didn't you hear about battleground Rhode Island?

[heatcharger]

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.

Which is why the battleground tracker should safely be ignored. State polls will always be a better barometer of what's going on in these states.

[Maxwell]

epic trolling, YouGov.

+7 in Ohio is a yuuuuge outlier.

[dspNY]

Wait why is Ohio only 78% White. It's 85% White

Ohio's 2012 exit poll was 79% white, 15% African-American, and 6% other

Florida's 2012 exit poll was 67% white, 13% African-American, 17% Hispanic and 3% other (so YouGov's demographic sample checks out in both cases)

[Joni Ernst 20∞]

The OH number is obviously junk.

[Classic Conservative]

Wait why is Ohio only 78% White. It's 85% White

Ohio's 2012 exit poll was 79% white, 15% African-American, and 6% other

Florida's 2012 exit poll was 67% white, 13% African-American, 17% Hispanic and 3% other (so YouGov's demographic sample checks out in both cases)

I stand corrected. But either way +7 seems like a big outlier

[Snek!]

Something might be happening. Any attempt to unskew might lead to a healthy helping of crow. That goes for all polls today.

[dspNY]

The OH number is obviously junk.

Gut feeling says she has a wider lead in FL than OH...my sense of how things stand is Clinton +4 in FL and Clinton +2 in OH

[Joni Ernst 20∞]

The OH number is obviously junk.

I think she has a wider lead in FL than OH...my sense of how things stand is Clinton +4 in FL and Clinton +2 in OH

I mean, their OH polls have always been quite favorable to Clinton:



Could it be that they're always polling the same sample (a sample which might be too Democratic)?

[Xing]

The Ohio poll does seem off, but so did the Trump +4 one.

[Invisible Obama]

Ohio is unionized and has the Cleveland suburbs (to a lesser extent, the Cincinnati suburbs) have a lot of educated voters. It's not unbelievable for Clinton to lead there.

[Buh her emails!]

In line with Obama 2012.

[Devils30]

The polls are ALL over the place today

[StatesPoll]

Underweighted White Evangelicals horrirbly

I. Ohio

1. CNN Ohio Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 31%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/

2. CBS/YouGov Ohio 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 199 LV / Total 988 LV = 20.14%

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(31%)x66%+ Non-White-Evans(69%)x32% = 42.54%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(31%)x15% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x53% = 41.22%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(31%)x10% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x6%= 7.24%
4) Stein: White-Evans(31%)x1% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x2% = 1.69%

II. Florida

1. CNN Florida Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 24%

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/


2. CBS/YouGov Florida 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 166 LV /  Total 1193 LV = 13.9%

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(24%)x74%+ Non-White-Evans(76%)x36% = 45.12%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(24%)x14% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x49% = 40.6%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(24%)x5% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x5%= 5%
4) Stein: White-Evans(24%)x0% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x2% = 1.52%

[Arch]

lol, he's back ↑

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Unskewing is BS (see: 2012)

[StatesPoll]

Unskewing is BS (see: 2012)

See: 2012? I unskewed poll as 2012 Exit poll?

[Bismarck]

This appears to be an outlier in Ohio, but it's a pro Hillary outlier so it must be exact.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Unskewing is BS (see: 2012)

See: 2012? I unskewed poll as 2012 Exit poll?

1. The electorate changes
2. It didn't work in 2012, and it won't work now.

[Ebsy]

There's a difference between criticizing a poll's methodology and sample composition and actually algebraically adjusting the results to fit some model you've decided to use (skewing). Skewing is beyond ridiculous and should be met with ridicule and scorn. If this site wasn't a gigantic joke Statespoll would already be banned.