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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +7 in Ohio, Clinton +2 in Florida  (Read 2305 times)
dspNY
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« on: September 11, 2016, 09:39:01 am »

Ohio:

Clinton 46
Trump 39
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Florida:

Clinton 44
Trump 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

13 state battleground tracker: Clinton 43, Trump 42

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2016, 09:46:09 am »

Compared to last week

Ohio:
Clinton 46  (+0)
Trump 39   (-1)
Johnson 7
Stein 2     

Florida:
Clinton 44 (-1)
Trump 42  (+2)
Johnson 5
Stein 2

13 state battleground tracker:
Clinton 43 (+0)
Trump 42 (+1)
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“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
Classic Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2016, 09:47:10 am »

Wait why is Ohio only 78% White. It's 85% White
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Sbane
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2016, 09:47:41 am »

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2016, 09:49:27 am »

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.
Ohio is 7% more African-American in this sample than IRL
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yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2016, 09:49:32 am »

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.
Didn't you hear about battleground Rhode Island?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2016, 09:50:01 am »

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.

Which is why the battleground tracker should safely be ignored. State polls will always be a better barometer of what's going on in these states.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2016, 09:50:28 am »

epic trolling, YouGov.

+7 in Ohio is a yuuuuge outlier.
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2016, 09:51:55 am »

Wait why is Ohio only 78% White. It's 85% White

Ohio's 2012 exit poll was 79% white, 15% African-American, and 6% other

Florida's 2012 exit poll was 67% white, 13% African-American, 17% Hispanic and 3% other (so YouGov's demographic sample checks out in both cases)
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2016, 09:55:21 am »

The OH number is obviously junk.
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2016, 09:56:11 am »

Wait why is Ohio only 78% White. It's 85% White

Ohio's 2012 exit poll was 79% white, 15% African-American, and 6% other

Florida's 2012 exit poll was 67% white, 13% African-American, 17% Hispanic and 3% other (so YouGov's demographic sample checks out in both cases)
I stand corrected. But either way +7 seems like a big outlier
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Snek!
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2016, 09:59:06 am »

Something might be happening. Any attempt to unskew might lead to a healthy helping of crow. That goes for all polls today.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2016, 10:01:21 am »

The OH number is obviously junk.

Gut feeling says she has a wider lead in FL than OH...my sense of how things stand is Clinton +4 in FL and Clinton +2 in OH
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2016, 10:04:21 am »

The OH number is obviously junk.

I think she has a wider lead in FL than OH...my sense of how things stand is Clinton +4 in FL and Clinton +2 in OH

I mean, their OH polls have always been quite favorable to Clinton:



Could it be that they're always polling the same sample (a sample which might be too Democratic)?
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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2016, 10:09:47 am »

The Ohio poll does seem off, but so did the Trump +4 one.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2016, 10:37:14 am »

Ohio is unionized and has the Cleveland suburbs (to a lesser extent, the Cincinnati suburbs) have a lot of educated voters. It's not unbelievable for Clinton to lead there.
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2016, 10:42:38 am »

In line with Obama 2012.
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2016, 11:07:08 am »

The polls are ALL over the place today
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2016, 11:44:56 am »

Underweighted White Evangelicals horrirbly

I. Ohio

1. CNN Ohio Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 31%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/

2. CBS/YouGov Ohio 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 199 LV / Total 988 LV = 20.14%

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(31%)x66%+ Non-White-Evans(69%)x32% = 42.54%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(31%)x15% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x53% = 41.22%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(31%)x10% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x6%= 7.24%
4) Stein: White-Evans(31%)x1% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x2% = 1.69%

II. Florida

1. CNN Florida Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 24%

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/


2. CBS/YouGov Florida 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 166 LV /  Total 1193 LV = 13.9%

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(24%)x74%+ Non-White-Evans(76%)x36% = 45.12%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(24%)x14% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x49% = 40.6%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(24%)x5% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x5%= 5%
4) Stein: White-Evans(24%)x0% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x2% = 1.52%
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Arch
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2016, 11:46:10 am »

lol, he's back ↑
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2016, 11:48:12 am »

Unskewing is BS (see: 2012)
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
StatesPoll
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2016, 11:55:04 am »

Unskewing is BS (see: 2012)


See: 2012? I unskewed poll as 2012 Exit poll? Tongue
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Bismarck
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2016, 12:42:46 pm »

This appears to be an outlier in Ohio, but it's a pro Hillary outlier so it must be exact.
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2016, 01:19:32 pm »

Unskewing is BS (see: 2012)


See: 2012? I unskewed poll as 2012 Exit poll? Tongue
1. The electorate changes
2. It didn't work in 2012, and it won't work now.
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
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« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2016, 01:21:24 pm »

There's a difference between criticizing a poll's methodology and sample composition and actually algebraically adjusting the results to fit some model you've decided to use (skewing). Skewing is beyond ridiculous and should be met with ridicule and scorn. If this site wasn't a gigantic joke Statespoll would already be banned.
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