CBS/YouGov: Clinton +7 in Ohio, Clinton +2 in Florida

[NOVA Green]

I think we can all assume that Ohio will be +1-2% to the left or right of the national numbers...

If Clinton is +3-5% nationally, these numbers seem realistic.

If Clinton is up 1-3% these sound a bit favorable for the Democrat.

All that being said, Trump has had a harder time consolidating Republican support in this swing state than in many others....

Trump has yet to prove he can get anywhere close to 45% in a 3rd party race, let alone 47% in a two-person matchup.

[politicallefty]

These are very good numbers for Hillary. To be honest, they'd be a lot more believable if they were reversed (not that I'm discounting them).

For the Presidency, it does seem like Democrats tend to over-perform in the polls in Ohio. I remember in 2012 that President Obama was up by about six points in one of the last polls. President Obama's strength in Ohio was one of the reasons I never seriously doubted his reelection. I'm surprised he didn't do better as I really thought 2012 was going to be a year when Ohio voted to the left of the nation. If you look at the county swing map though, I think there were a lot of working class whites that swung to Obama in 2012. I have to believe he lost a lot of college-educated whites, which would explain why the Northeastern part of the state swung against him (particularly the Cleveland suburbs and the loss of bellwether Lake County).

[Lachi]

Lol, you can't use the 2012 exit poll in a 2016 electorate.

[NOVA Green]

These are very good numbers for Hillary. To be honest, they'd be a lot more believable if they were reversed (not that I'm discounting them).

For the Presidency, it does seem like Democrats tend to over-perform in the polls in Ohio. I remember in 2012 that President Obama was up by about six points in one of the last polls. President Obama's strength in Ohio was one of the reasons I never seriously doubted his reelection. I'm surprised he didn't do better as I really thought 2012 was going to be a year when Ohio voted to the left of the nation. If you look at the county swing map though, I think there were a lot of working class whites that swung to Obama in 2012. I have to believe he lost a lot of college-educated whites, which would explain why the Northeastern part of the state swung against him (particularly the Cleveland suburbs and the loss of bellwether Lake County).

Don't forget John Kerry's polling numbers in OH way back in '04 that looked really good until ED.

[politicallefty]

Don't forget John Kerry's polling numbers in OH way back in '04 that looked really good until ED.

Not only that, but I remember the early returns out of Ohio. They looked very good for Kerry, but obviously we know how that turned out (my mom knew how much the election meant to me and called to get me out of school the next day). The day after Election Day is almost my own personal holiday. Anyways, when the final Ohio polls are released, it might be a good idea to take about 2-3 points away from the Democratic margin. However, considering how much stronger Hillary's ground game is this year, I'm not sure. I'd be more than stunned if Hillary won Ohio by 7%. Ohio will be close, but I do feel pretty good about it. Trump is not going to come remotely close to winning Mahoning County, a county that swung towards President Obama in 2012 and gave him over 63% of the vote.

[SirMuxALot]

What am I missing about Mahoning County?  Kerry won it 63-37 in '04 (Obama also similar margin over McCain in '08), so it doesn't strike me as a bellwether county.

[Vosem]

What am I missing about Mahoning County?  Kerry won it 63-37 in '04 (Obama also similar margin over McCain in '08), so it doesn't strike me as a bellwether county.

It is a place that is both very working-class, very white, and very Democratic, and perhaps one of the few places in the country where anti-trade sentiment is really, really salient. This was the heart of Jim Traficant's old district, for instance. So the idea exists (and it's probably true, though I doubt he actually carries it) that Donald Trump will improve significantly on prior Republican performances in Mahoning County.

[Tender Branson]

Someone needs to add the OH poll to the database ...