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Author Topic: FL-JMC Analytics: Trump +4  (Read 2101 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: September 12, 2016, 07:05:25 am »

46% Trump (R)
42% Clinton (D)
3% Johnson (L)
1% Stein (G)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/JMC_FL_Sept_2016.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2016, 07:09:13 am »

Looks like Hillary isn't as favoured as some on this Forum expected her to be a few weeks ago.

It would be better if she stays home for the next 2 weeks or so to recover from her pneumonia, so that she's in good shape again for the first debate.

It's better anyway for her to be out of the news, because the more she's in the news, the more she drops in the polls.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2016, 07:18:47 am »

This feels like 2012 "omg swing state polls! But muh national!!"

No one really knows, outside of Trump STILL being weak on aggregate.

Plus they've produced some outlier polls.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2016, 07:25:32 am by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2016, 07:22:13 am »

So now we get the worst round of state polls, even as it looks like her national numbers are recovering.
In FL they had Trump +5  in head-to-head   JUL. 9-10.

And Clinton +7 in GA  AUG. 6-7
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2016, 07:24:11 am »

FL polls are all over the place, aren't they?
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2016, 07:25:34 am »

All their polls are outliers, including the Clinton +7 in GA. Throw it in the trash. YouGov is most likely right here
« Last Edit: September 12, 2016, 07:28:06 am by dspNY »Logged
StatesPoll
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2016, 07:36:22 am »

All their polls are outliers, including the Clinton +7 in GA. Throw it in the trash. YouGov is most likely right here

to red avatars, underweighted white evengalicals -10% Yougov = most likely right poll?
hahahaha.


I. Ohio
1. CNN Ohio Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 31%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/

2. CBS/YouGov Ohio 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 199 LV / Total 988 LV = 20.14%
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(31%)x66%+ Non-White-Evans(69%)x32% = 42.54%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(31%)x15% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x53% = 41.22%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(31%)x10% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x6%= 7.24%
4) Stein: White-Evans(31%)x1% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x2% = 1.69%

II. Florida

1. CNN Florida Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 24%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/


2. CBS/YouGov Florida 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 166 LV /  Total 1193 LV = 13.9%
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(24%)x74%+ Non-White-Evans(76%)x36% = 45.12%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(24%)x14% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x49% = 40.6%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(24%)x5% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x5%= 5%
4) Stein: White-Evans(24%)x0% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x2% = 1.52%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2016, 07:49:44 am »

This is a Republican firm that has never shown Clinton ahead.
As a matter of fact Clinton has actually improved her numbers compared to their last poll.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2016, 11:49:14 am »

Important note: this poll shows the two virtually tied among Hispanics. Be a bit wary.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2016, 11:51:57 am »

Junk, a virtual tie among hispanics is ridiculous. Even if you put Cuban Americans into consideration.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2016, 12:00:20 pm »

Junk, a virtual tie among hispanics is ridiculous. Even if you put Cuban Americans into consideration.

oh. really?

But Mohamed. even your liberal hero 'Nate Silver' adjusted this poll as TRUMP +4%.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus
Sad!

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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2016, 12:58:55 pm »

Florida flips to Trump on the RCP no tossups map.
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Young Texan
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2016, 01:04:08 pm »

I had a feeling Florida would swing to Trump in the last few days.
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matthew27
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2016, 01:16:26 pm »

Important note: this poll shows the two virtually tied among Hispanics. Be a bit wary.

Any poll that shows Hispanics tied or even close is Trash. Period.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2016, 03:46:42 pm »

Any poll that shows Hispanics tied or even close is Trash. Period.

Are you sure?

It might be worth remembering Bush in '04 won FL Hispanics 56-44.
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dspNY
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2016, 04:01:45 pm »

Any poll that shows Hispanics tied or even close is Trash. Period.

Are you sure?

It might be worth remembering Bush in '04 won FL Hispanics 56-44.

GWB never called them rapists and criminals
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2016, 04:18:18 pm »

GWB never called them rapists and criminals

Sure, but I wonder to what degree FL Hispanics (which is dominated by Caribbean origin Hispanics) identify with Mexican illegal immigrants.  I just don't know.

Not defending Trump's stupid comments, but is it possible the damage is mitigated by the nature of Florida's Latino makeup?  Only 15% of FL Hispanics are Mexican origin.
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Arch
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2016, 04:21:24 pm »

GWB never called them rapists and criminals

Sure, but I wonder to what degree FL Hispanics (which is dominated by Caribbean origin Hispanics) identify with Mexican illegal immigrants.  I just don't know.

Not defending Trump's stupid comments, but is it possible the damage is mitigated by the nature of Florida's Latino makeup?  Only 15% of FL Hispanics are Mexican origin.

Trust me. Puerto Ricans are a big part of the FL Hispanic population, and we hate him just as much.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2016, 04:26:14 pm »

Trust me. Puerto Ricans are a big part of the FL Hispanic population, and we hate him just as much.

Do we know how Puerto Ricans have voted in the past in FL?  I haven't found that level of detail in any exit poll.
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2016, 04:34:28 pm »

Trust me. Puerto Ricans are a big part of the FL Hispanic population, and we hate him just as much.

Do we know how Puerto Ricans have voted in the past in FL?  I haven't found that level of detail in any exit poll.

Not that I know of. I believe Latino Voices have done some polls or Puerto Ricans in FL though, and it's something around the 73:27 split from what I remember seeing.

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2016, 05:16:34 pm »

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state.  Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2016, 05:22:50 pm »

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state.  Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.

Not saying you're wrong, but trying to follow your logic. Are you making the case that Trump will outperform Romney among Cubans? Are you accounting for growth of PR community in Central FL, a community that does not have to apply for citizenship and is instinctively Democratic?
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« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2016, 05:29:27 pm »

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state.  Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.

Not saying you're wrong, but trying to follow your logic. Are you making the case that Trump will outperform Romney among Cubans? Are you accounting for growth of PR community in Central FL, a community that does not have to apply for citizenship and is instinctively Democratic?

Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans have moved to FL since 2012, a lot of my family members included. In Florida, where a couple thousand votes matter, it makes a huge difference.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #23 on: September 12, 2016, 05:34:23 pm »

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state.  Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.

Not saying you're wrong, but trying to follow your logic. Are you making the case that Trump will outperform Romney among Cubans? Are you accounting for growth of PR community in Central FL, a community that does not have to apply for citizenship and is instinctively Democratic?

Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans have moved to FL since 2012, a lot of my family members included. In Florida, where a couple thousand votes matter, it makes a huge difference.

Which was my point, and I'm glad you have the experience/knowledge to give it more credence.
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Lok
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« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2016, 11:48:42 pm »

oh. really?

But Mohamed. even your liberal hero 'Nate Silver' adjusted this poll as TRUMP +4%.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus
Sad!

Uhh, stop saying that Nate adjusted the polls, if you look properly, you'll see that it was Trump +4 to begin with...
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