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Author Topic: FL-JMC Analytics: Trump +4  (Read 2099 times)
StatesPoll
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« on: September 12, 2016, 07:36:22 am »

All their polls are outliers, including the Clinton +7 in GA. Throw it in the trash. YouGov is most likely right here

to red avatars, underweighted white evengalicals -10% Yougov = most likely right poll?
hahahaha.


I. Ohio
1. CNN Ohio Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 31%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/

2. CBS/YouGov Ohio 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 199 LV / Total 988 LV = 20.14%
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(31%)x66%+ Non-White-Evans(69%)x32% = 42.54%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(31%)x15% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x53% = 41.22%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(31%)x10% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x6%= 7.24%
4) Stein: White-Evans(31%)x1% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x2% = 1.69%

II. Florida

1. CNN Florida Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 24%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/


2. CBS/YouGov Florida 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 166 LV /  Total 1193 LV = 13.9%
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(24%)x74%+ Non-White-Evans(76%)x36% = 45.12%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(24%)x14% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x49% = 40.6%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(24%)x5% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x5%= 5%
4) Stein: White-Evans(24%)x0% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x2% = 1.52%
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StatesPoll
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Posts: 444
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2016, 12:00:20 pm »

Junk, a virtual tie among hispanics is ridiculous. Even if you put Cuban Americans into consideration.

oh. really?

But Mohamed. even your liberal hero 'Nate Silver' adjusted this poll as TRUMP +4%.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus
Sad!

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