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Author Topic: UT: Dan Jones & Associates, SEP. 1-9, Trump +15  (Read 1489 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: September 12, 2016, 10:10:40 am »

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/10765-
Dan Jones & Associates, SEP. 1-9

Compared to    JUL. 18-AUG. 4:

Trump   39% (+2)
Clinton  24% (-1)

Johnson 13% (-3)
McMullin  9% (----)
Castle     2% (----)
Stein       0% (-1)
Other      6% (-7)
« Last Edit: September 12, 2016, 10:12:16 am by LittleBigOctopus »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2016, 10:11:39 am »

Okay, UT/ID going back to Safe R.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2016, 10:13:06 am »

Is there any chance of Hillary coming in third (or maybe even fourth) in Utah?

The awesome hypothetical:

Trump: 40%
McMullin: 25%
Johnson: 15%
Clinton: 13%
Stein: 5%
Others: 2%
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2016, 10:13:47 am »

Safe R Utah
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2016, 10:13:51 am »

Okay, UT/ID going back to Safe R.

They were always Safe R.
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2016, 10:25:57 am »

Trump will win it, but I guess the chances of him winning less than 50% of the vote here are in fact pretty good?  Two years ago, what kind of betting odds would someone have gotten on the 2016 Republican presidential nominee finishing with less than 50% of the vote in Utah?
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2016, 10:31:33 am »

Is there any chance of Hillary coming in third (or maybe even fourth) in Utah?

The awesome hypothetical:

Trump: 40%
McMullin: 25%
Johnson: 15%
Clinton: 13%
Stein: 5%
Others: 2%

Clinton's not getting less than 20% in Utah, so a third place finish would've likely required a consolidation of anti-Trump support by one of Johnson or McMuffin (which can't happen now since both are running and getting decent chunks of support).
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2016, 10:34:32 am »

Yeah, Trump will win Utah, and Hillary will come in second.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2016, 11:15:26 am »

Is there any chance of Hillary coming in third (or maybe even fourth) in Utah?

The Dem base in Utah has a solid floor. It's not very high, but it's very different from the majority of the state.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2016, 11:56:57 am »

Very disappointing.

I was not a BernieBro by any stretch, but I do believe Sanders would have been competitive in Utah, even could have won the state in a plurality.

1) He is a fresher face. Ironic, considering his age.
2) Sanders had large appeal to younger voters, and Utah has the lowest median age in the country at 30 years old.
3) His personality is very compatible with Mormons.
4) Sanders actually had significant leads over Trump in a few polls. Clinton never did.

I must say that Clinton being a female also hurts her chances in a state that largely believes men should rule. Only one female has ever been elected statewide in Utah history. Ironically, this was Democrat Jan Graham who was elected Attorney General in 1992 and re-elected in 1996. I wish she ran for a third term in 2000. Sad

And look at how Mia Love underperformed in both 2012 and 2014.

Not saying Hillary will underperform, as the Democratic floor is quite low already and the 24% of people who expressed support for Clinton in this poll always vote Democratic anyway.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2016, 11:59:23 am »

#Trumpunder40 LOL.

I would be surpirsed if he ends up below 50% in the end. But still not in play for Hillary.
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2016, 12:22:42 pm »

Is there any chance of Hillary coming in third (or maybe even fourth) in Utah?

The awesome hypothetical:

Trump: 40%
McMullin: 25%
Johnson: 15%
Clinton: 13%
Stein: 5%
Others: 2%

It is Trump who would hemorrhage votes to McMullin, and in such a case I could imagine Hillary Clinton winning with support in the high 30s. 
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2016, 02:25:39 pm »

A Republican under 40 here is amusing regardless.
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2016, 09:11:14 pm »

3) His personality is very compatible with Mormons.

How so?
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2016, 09:13:48 pm »

3) His personality is very compatible with Mormons.

How so?

He's pretty much an anti-Mormon in terms of personality. I have no idea what he's talking about.
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2016, 09:19:02 pm »

#battlegroundUT was fun while it lasted, but we knew it had to end at some point.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2016, 09:25:58 pm »

#battlegroundUT was fun while it lasted, but we knew it had to end at some point.
Now it is #battlegroundME instead. Have fun! Smiley
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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2016, 10:01:56 pm »

#battlegroundUT was fun while it lasted, but we knew it had to end at some point.

It was never a battleground to begin with. This state is unwinnable for any Democratic presidential candidate. Predicting now...

Trump: 56%
Clinton: 29%
McMullin: 7%
Johnson: 6%
Other: 2%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2016, 10:12:34 pm »

Is there any chance of Hillary coming in third (or maybe even fourth) in Utah?

The awesome hypothetical:

Trump: 40%
McMullin: 25%
Johnson: 15%
Clinton: 13%
Stein: 5%
Others: 2%

Nah I think she has a solid floor of around 20-22% of the vote.
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