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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  MI-FOX2 Detroit/Mitchell: Hillary up 5 (and 6)
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Author Topic: MI-FOX2 Detroit/Mitchell: Hillary up 5 (and 6)  (Read 1176 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 12, 2016, 10:51:47 am »

IVR FOX 2 Detroit Mitchell Poll of Michigan
Conducted September 6-7, 2016 Survey
(N=940 Likely Voters)

45% Clinton
39% Trump
  7% Johnson
  1% Stein

47% Clinton
42% Trump

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-9-16.pdf
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2016, 10:55:56 am »

Looks right.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2016, 10:56:03 am »

From Clinton +11 in early August
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2016, 10:56:45 am »

Compared with their previous poll:

Clinton: +1
Trump: +6
Johnson: -2
Stein: -4
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King Francis I
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2016, 10:57:57 am »

It's MI polling so I guess it's good news lol?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2016, 11:19:38 am »

Yup, Clinton is set for a double digit win here. Great news!
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2016, 11:19:46 am »

It seems right
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2016, 11:56:46 am »

https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz/status/775353693331914753

Alan Abramowitz who writes for the Crystal Ball

Quote
Robo-dialer Mitchell Research claims Clinton leads among Latinos by 12 and among Af-Amer voters by 61 in Michigan. Both ludicrous.
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Castro
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2016, 12:17:52 pm »

Also, this is a landline-only poll according to Nate Cohn.
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2016, 12:56:25 pm »

Trump isn't going to win Michigan.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2016, 12:58:23 pm »

Michigan isn't even going to trend Republican! Terrific!
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matthew27
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2016, 01:12:20 pm »

https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz/status/775353693331914753

Alan Abramowitz who writes for the Crystal Ball

Quote
Robo-dialer Mitchell Research claims Clinton leads among Latinos by 12 and among Af-Amer voters by 61 in Michigan. Both ludicrous.

Lol, trash poll. Double Clintons lead to at least 10.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2016, 02:23:59 pm »

https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz/status/775353693331914753

Alan Abramowitz who writes for the Crystal Ball

Quote
Robo-dialer Mitchell Research claims Clinton leads among Latinos by 12 and among Af-Amer voters by 61 in Michigan. Both ludicrous.

Polling subsamples aren't intended to be accurate representations of the subsample groups. It's kind of disturbing that even people on *this* forum don't understand that.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
IndyRep
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2016, 02:25:24 pm »

https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz/status/775353693331914753

Alan Abramowitz who writes for the Crystal Ball

Quote
Robo-dialer Mitchell Research claims Clinton leads among Latinos by 12 and among Af-Amer voters by 61 in Michigan. Both ludicrous.

Polling subsamples aren't intended to be accurate representations of the subsample groups. It's kind of disturbing that even people on *this* forum don't understand that.

This. Looks like the 'unskewers' are out in full force.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2016, 02:27:43 pm »

Having said that, it's still a Michigan pollster, so if this is right it's an accident.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2016, 02:29:30 pm »

Michigan pollsters also said Obama would only win Michigan by 4 in 2012. He won by 10. Michigan pollsters are just genuinely bad at this.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2016, 03:27:59 pm »

RCP moves Michigan to tossup.  Should a couple Trump-friendly polls shift CO and MN to tossup as well, tossup would actually be "leading" both Trump and Clinton!!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2016, 03:42:17 pm »

Michigan pollsters also said Obama would only win Michigan by 4 in 2012. He won by 10. Michigan pollsters are just genuinely bad at this.

Not sure if it just Michigan pollsters in general, but as I noted on another thread elsewhere Democrats tend to close really strong in Michigan (And Wisconsin '04 being the exception) come November compared to early Fall polling.
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Lok
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« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2016, 04:52:02 pm »

Is anyone gonna notice that

          This is a landline-only poll according to Nate Cohn.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2016, 06:29:00 pm »

Is anyone gonna notice that

          This is a landline-only poll according to Nate Cohn.

No... don't highlight methodological shortcomings, that's 'unskewing'.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2016, 06:47:44 pm »

Is anyone gonna notice that

          This is a landline-only poll according to Nate Cohn.

No... don't highlight methodological shortcomings, that's 'unskewing'.

Quote
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6h6 hours ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Nate Cohn
Let me be clearer: by landline only, I mean total garbage
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2016, 07:22:32 pm »

So it looks like Michigan is actually falling in line as a +6-8 Clinton state, if not higher.

I'm curious as to what this means for Wisconsin, since one could reasonably accept that they will be
2-3% to right of Michigan.
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Arch
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« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2016, 07:24:31 pm »

So it looks like Michigan is actually falling in line as a +6-8 Clinton state, if not higher.

I'm curious as to what this means for Wisconsin, since one could reasonably accept that they will be
2-3% to right of Michigan.

Hillary will end up winning Wisconsin by no less than 5.
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