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Author Topic: NV-PPP: Cortez-Masto +1  (Read 1562 times)
heatcharger
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« on: September 12, 2016, 03:58:57 pm »

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/white-house-senate-races-very-close-in-nevada
https://www.scribd.com/document/323773529/NVResults912-1?keyword=ft200noi&content=10079&ad_group=Online+Tracking+Link&campaign=Skimbit%2C+Ltd.&source=impactradius&medium=affiliate&irgwc=1

Cortez-Masto - 42%
Heck - 41%

Favorability numbers seem a little harsh I would say:

Cortez-Masto: 37/41
Heck: 39/45
« Last Edit: September 12, 2016, 04:02:29 pm by heatcharger »Logged

Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2016, 04:01:16 pm »

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2016, 04:01:36 pm »

Great news😁
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xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2016, 04:02:34 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2016, 04:19:06 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

Funny, I didn't know a one point deficit two months out was something you couldn't overcome.

Contrary to popular belief, the Democrats path to a real majority, 51-49, looks narrow. Unless you guys pull off an upset in FL, NC, AZ, MO, or LA, you have to sweep the six seats where you appear to have an advantage (IL, NV, WI, PA, IN, NH).

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2016, 04:41:24 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

Funny, I didn't know a one point deficit two months out was something you couldn't overcome.

Contrary to popular belief, the Democrats path to a real majority, 51-49, looks narrow. Unless you guys pull off an upset in FL, NC, AZ, MO, or LA, you have to sweep the six seats where you appear to have an advantage (IL, NV, WI, PA, IN, NH).


Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.

I think Dems will win at least 1 of FL, NC, AZ or MO
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LLR
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2016, 04:45:44 pm »

Very good poll.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2016, 05:09:33 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

Funny, I didn't know a one point deficit two months out was something you couldn't overcome.

Contrary to popular belief, the Democrats path to a real majority, 51-49, looks narrow. Unless you guys pull off an upset in FL, NC, AZ, MO, or LA, you have to sweep the six seats where you appear to have an advantage (IL, NV, WI, PA, IN, NH).

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.

When a one point deficit comes after you've held the lead in virtually every previous poll, and in a state where polling consistently overestimates your party, you're in trouble.
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2016, 05:24:52 pm »

There are people in the NV Democratic Party who could've thrown this race (any of their three most recent Senate nominees, for instance, or of their two last gubernatorial nominees) to Joe Heck, but it's becoming increasingly clear that they've finally made a clearheaded decision in nominating CCM. A competent Democrat beats a competent Republican in a presidential year in Nevada.
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2016, 05:28:32 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

Funny, I didn't know a one point deficit two months out was something you couldn't overcome.

Contrary to popular belief, the Democrats path to a real majority, 51-49, looks narrow. Unless you guys pull off an upset in FL, NC, AZ, MO, or LA, you have to sweep the six seats where you appear to have an advantage (IL, NV, WI, PA, IN, NH).

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.

When a one point deficit comes after you've held the lead in virtually every previous poll, and in a state where polling consistently overestimates your party, you're in trouble.

Historical polling errors don't always show up on election day, or may not show up across the board. In 2014, many believed M. Udall was safe because of a historical polling error in CO. While the polls were off for the governor's race (The RCP average underestimated Hickenlooper by 2.4%), the polling average was exactly right for the senate race. I'm not saying you can't use historical polling errors to construct ratings, but you shouldn't be all "HAHAH! Safe Masto!" based on that alone.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2016, 05:34:24 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

Funny, I didn't know a one point deficit two months out was something you couldn't overcome.

Contrary to popular belief, the Democrats path to a real majority, 51-49, looks narrow. Unless you guys pull off an upset in FL, NC, AZ, MO, or LA, you have to sweep the six seats where you appear to have an advantage (IL, NV, WI, PA, IN, NH).

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.

When a one point deficit comes after you've held the lead in virtually every previous poll, and in a state where polling consistently overestimates your party, you're in trouble.

Historical polling errors don't always show up on election day, or may not show up across the board. In 2014, many believed M. Udall was safe because of a historical polling error in CO. While the polls were off for the governor's race (The RCP average underestimated Hickenlooper by 2.4%), the polling average was exactly right for the senate race. I'm not saying you can't use historical polling errors to construct ratings, but you shouldn't be all "HAHAH! Safe Masto!" based on that alone.

I don't think anyone thought Udall was safe by the fall of 2014. If Heck suddenly surges back into the lead, that changes things, but the way things have been going, it doesn't look good for him. Polling in general doesn't have a consistent bias, but NV polling tends to underestimate Democrats specifically because Latinos are either underpolled, or polls do not reach native Spanish speaking Latinos, who vote even more Democratic. I won't say this race is Safe D just yet, but if Heck is still trailing on election day, even by a small amount, he's toast.
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2016, 05:39:30 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

Funny, I didn't know a one point deficit two months out was something you couldn't overcome.

Contrary to popular belief, the Democrats path to a real majority, 51-49, looks narrow. Unless you guys pull off an upset in FL, NC, AZ, MO, or LA, you have to sweep the six seats where you appear to have an advantage (IL, NV, WI, PA, IN, NH).

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.

When a one point deficit comes after you've held the lead in virtually every previous poll, and in a state where polling consistently overestimates your party, you're in trouble.

Historical polling errors don't always show up on election day, or may not show up across the board. In 2014, many believed M. Udall was safe because of a historical polling error in CO. While the polls were off for the governor's race (The RCP average underestimated Hickenlooper by 2.4%), the polling average was exactly right for the senate race. I'm not saying you can't use historical polling errors to construct ratings, but you shouldn't be all "HAHAH! Safe Masto!" based on that alone.

I don't think anyone thought Udall was safe by the fall of 2014.

Invisible Obama thought he was right up to election day. And he wasn't trolling, he said it many times and very seriously. Even in the final days, the most he got to was something along the lines of "I know what this data is saying, but I just don't see it happening. The polls are always off.". There was also another guy who predicted on election day that the dems would actually end up with a net gain in the senate, but I'm not convinced he was actually being serious.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2016, 06:04:35 pm »

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.
I am confident this one will be within 3 points. But if Heck loses it will be one painful loss.
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NV-SEN: Dean Heller
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PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz
WV-SEN: Patrick Morrisey
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2016, 06:18:27 pm »

This is the one state all cycle where Democrats have really underperformed their expectations (in polling at least)

quote author=xīngkěruì link=topic=245552.msg5260171#msg5260171 date=1473714154]
Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
[/quote]

I hope your joking.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2016, 06:43:43 pm »

This is the one state all cycle where Democrats have really underperformed their expectations (in polling at least)

quote author=xīngkěruì link=topic=245552.msg5260171#msg5260171 date=1473714154]
Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

I hope your joking.
[/quote]

I'm standing by my prediction that NV polling will be off again this year. However, even if we assume that NV polling is accurate, Heck has still gone from being consistently ahead to being tied. If polling shifts back in Heck's favor, then of course I'll change my prediction.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2016, 06:45:55 pm »

Marist was really off on polling. Ayotte is 2-3 points behind not 7 pts ahead either
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yeah_93
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« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2016, 06:58:33 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
I recall posts here saying that since Rauner wasn't leading by a bigger margin in the polls, he was toast. Guess how that one worked out, huh.
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2016, 07:08:03 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
I recall posts here saying that since Rauner wasn't leading by a bigger margin in the polls, he was toast. Guess how that one worked out, huh.

You're a Clinton supporter? lol
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« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2016, 08:02:50 pm »

I don't see this poll as meaningfully different from the majority of polls which showed Heck up by one. He's outperforming Trump. Pure Tossup still, although I do think Masto will pull it out.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2016, 05:19:35 am »

Well,
I don't think Nevada will be so close for Hillary in the end, there are too many latinos and Reid's machine is still alive. So I guess that should be enough for CCM to prevail.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2016, 11:16:14 am »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
I recall posts here saying that since Rauner wasn't leading by a bigger margin in the polls, he was toast. Guess how that one worked out, huh.

You're a Clinton supporter? lol
Well, Johnson isn't going to get elected, so...
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2016, 11:45:14 am »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
I recall posts here saying that since Rauner wasn't leading by a bigger margin in the polls, he was toast. Guess how that one worked out, huh.

You're a Clinton supporter? lol
Well, Johnson isn't going to get elected, so...

I know, but you seemed like one of the few blue avatars here who didn't hate Trump, lol.
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Figueira
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« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2016, 09:48:29 am »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
I recall posts here saying that since Rauner wasn't leading by a bigger margin in the polls, he was toast. Guess how that one worked out, huh.

You're a Clinton supporter? lol
Well, Johnson isn't going to get elected, so...

Welcome to the light side!

Anyway, still tossup, but I'd be lying if I said Masto didn't have an advantage.
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« Reply #23 on: September 14, 2016, 08:27:40 pm »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
Seattle values aren't Nevada's values, and they aren't America's values. And they sure as Heck aren't Nevadans values or Americans values.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2016, 10:03:22 pm »

Dems overlooked Heck who reminds voters of Sandoval and Heller. But, doesn't let Heller off hook in 2018, though.
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