NV-PPP: Cortez-Masto +1 (user search)
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Author Topic: NV-PPP: Cortez-Masto +1  (Read 3859 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: September 12, 2016, 04:02:34 PM »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2016, 05:09:33 PM »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

Funny, I didn't know a one point deficit two months out was something you couldn't overcome.

Contrary to popular belief, the Democrats path to a real majority, 51-49, looks narrow. Unless you guys pull off an upset in FL, NC, AZ, MO, or LA, you have to sweep the six seats where you appear to have an advantage (IL, NV, WI, PA, IN, NH).

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.

When a one point deficit comes after you've held the lead in virtually every previous poll, and in a state where polling consistently overestimates your party, you're in trouble.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2016, 05:34:24 PM »

Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

Funny, I didn't know a one point deficit two months out was something you couldn't overcome.

Contrary to popular belief, the Democrats path to a real majority, 51-49, looks narrow. Unless you guys pull off an upset in FL, NC, AZ, MO, or LA, you have to sweep the six seats where you appear to have an advantage (IL, NV, WI, PA, IN, NH).

Yeah, this one is a pure Tossup. Could go either way.

When a one point deficit comes after you've held the lead in virtually every previous poll, and in a state where polling consistently overestimates your party, you're in trouble.

Historical polling errors don't always show up on election day, or may not show up across the board. In 2014, many believed M. Udall was safe because of a historical polling error in CO. While the polls were off for the governor's race (The RCP average underestimated Hickenlooper by 2.4%), the polling average was exactly right for the senate race. I'm not saying you can't use historical polling errors to construct ratings, but you shouldn't be all "HAHAH! Safe Masto!" based on that alone.

I don't think anyone thought Udall was safe by the fall of 2014. If Heck suddenly surges back into the lead, that changes things, but the way things have been going, it doesn't look good for him. Polling in general doesn't have a consistent bias, but NV polling tends to underestimate Democrats specifically because Latinos are either underpolled, or polls do not reach native Spanish speaking Latinos, who vote even more Democratic. I won't say this race is Safe D just yet, but if Heck is still trailing on election day, even by a small amount, he's toast.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2016, 06:43:43 PM »

This is the one state all cycle where Democrats have really underperformed their expectations (in polling at least)

quote author=xīngkěruì link=topic=245552.msg5260171#msg5260171 date=1473714154]
Well, hope you enjoyed your chances while they lasted, Heck, since they're gone now.

I hope your joking.
[/quote]

I'm standing by my prediction that NV polling will be off again this year. However, even if we assume that NV polling is accurate, Heck has still gone from being consistently ahead to being tied. If polling shifts back in Heck's favor, then of course I'll change my prediction.
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