VA-PPP: Clinton +6/+8

[Wiz in Wis]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-by-6-8-in-virginia.html

PPP's new Virginia poll finds that Hillary Clinton is still in a pretty good position in the state. In the full field she leads with 45% to 39% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head contest just against Trump, she leads 50/42.

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%
McMullin - 1%

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 42%

878 likely voters surveyed between September 9th and 11th.

This is an improvement for Clinton, who was up just 3 in the last PPP Poll of VA, though that was back in June.

[Dr. Arch]

So this even includes the day of the health issue. Great. You should include that she leads by 8 in the head to head and 6 in the four way.

[Classic Conservative]

So this even includes the day of the health issue. Great. You should include that she leads by 8 in the head to head and 6 in the four way.

Five Way

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So this even includes the day of the health issue. Great.

But it is a positive for Clinton, you told me?

[Wiz in Wis]

So this even includes the day of the health issue. Great. You should include that she leads by 8 in the head to head and 6 in the four way.

Five Way

Is McMuffin on the ballot?

[Gass3268]

Looks good, Hillary's approvals are only a -7 net compared to -26 for Trump. Obama is at +6. That's probably the ballgame right there.

[Dr. Arch]

So this even includes the day of the health issue. Great.

But it is a positive for Clinton, you told me?

No, I told you that it could be spun positively and some media sources were starting to pick up on that. My overall determination was that it would be a wash.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So this even includes the day of the health issue. Great. You should include that she leads by 8 in the head to head and 6 in the four way.

Five Way

Is McMuffin on the ballot?

Yes

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Consistent with Clinton up 2-4

[Xing]

Not bad, looks like Virginia will definitely trend D this year.

[Fusionmunster]

Thats in line with PPPs +5 national poll.

[Person Man]

Consistent with Clinton up 2-4

Moo Moo Moo

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Consistent with Clinton up 2-4

Moo Moo Moo

?
538, Upshot, RCP. You choose

[Person Man]

Consistent with Clinton up 2-4

Moo Moo Moo

?
538, Upshot, RCP. You choose

Yeah. So much about Clinton collapsing. My guess is that there is the debate that determines the three major scenarios-

A) Hillary wins in a 2012 style. Maybe trades NC with Florida. Georgia and Arizona are very close but Trump wins them Wednesday morning.

B) Hillary wins a 2004 style. Trump wins IA, OH or NC but not both, FL and keeps NV from being called until Wednesday morning. Maybe the race takes that long to call. Clinton holds on by taking NV,CO,VA,PA. Trump wins AZ and GA comfortably but not by as much as McCain or Romney.

C) Trump wins between 2000 and 2004 by winning Wisconsin or another rust belt state on top of B. That puts him on top. He does as well in GA and AZ as McCain and Romney.

The two most extreme realistic scenarios is Trump makes all the Bush states come home (Colorado + Virginia are within 3 points) and takes MI,WI,NH, and PA or that Clinton actually wins AZ, NC and GA plus 2012.

[KingSweden]

Still think 2012+NC with precariously narrow D Senate majority is eventual result

[The Other Castro]

Junk poll, Pumpkin Spice only has a +8 favorability rating:

[Heisenberg]

Well, a lot of NeverTrump Republicans in Virginia holding back Trump. It would be closer, but sadly, it is trending away from Republicans. Man I miss the old Virginia from 15-20 years ago.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Junk poll, Pumpkin Spice only has a +8 favorability rating:

When will millennials learn that none of us want your fads!

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Virginia President by Public Policy Polling on 2016-09-11

Summary: D: 45%, R: 39%, I: 9%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Ebsy]

Glorious poll!

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Fantastic, seems to be locked down down, along with PA. Now we need some new WI & CO polls.

[MasterJedi]

Trump wasn't going to win Southern MD VA, we all knew that.

You can come listen to Wisconsin conservatives, a lot of them think Trump is up with 70%+ of the vote!

[Eraserhead]

I don't see Trump making a serious play for Virginia unless he takes a decent lead nationally.

[Gass3268]

I don't see Trump making a serious play for Virginia unless he takes a decent lead nationally.

He's currently pumping a ton of money into the state. I think it's #2, only behind Florida. Really stupid.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was a must win state. Because it takes away a loss in Iowa.