Consistent with Clinton up 2-4 
538, Upshot, RCP. You choose
Yeah. So much about Clinton collapsing. My guess is that there is the debate that determines the three major scenarios-
A) Hillary wins in a 2012 style. Maybe trades NC with Florida. Georgia and Arizona are very close but Trump wins them Wednesday morning.
B) Hillary wins a 2004 style. Trump wins IA, OH or NC but not both, FL and keeps NV from being called until Wednesday morning. Maybe the race takes that long to call. Clinton holds on by taking NV,CO,VA,PA. Trump wins AZ and GA comfortably but not by as much as McCain or Romney.
C) Trump wins between 2000 and 2004 by winning Wisconsin or another rust belt state on top of B. That puts him on top. He does as well in GA and AZ as McCain and Romney.
The two most extreme realistic scenarios is Trump makes all the Bush states come home (Colorado + Virginia are within 3 points) and takes MI,WI,NH, and PA or that Clinton actually wins AZ, NC and GA plus 2012.
