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Author Topic: TX - Emerson College: Trump +6 (4 way)  (Read 1761 times)
jaichind
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« on: September 13, 2016, 04:27:57 pm »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_01dca97a9c05411984c50df92d62cf50.pdf
 
Donald Trump tops Hillary Clinton 42%-36% in reliably Republican Texas, according to an Emerson College poll.
Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 10%; Green Party’s Jill Stein 6%
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2016, 04:29:17 pm »

Stein taking 6%, an Emerson poll, and landline only, and Trump is still only leading by 6? Wow.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2016, 04:30:37 pm »

this is what makes this election so weird - why are National polls so narrow, some of the swing states so narrow, when normally Republican states like Texas, Georgia, Arizona are also within single digits.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2016, 04:30:48 pm »

Fools gold, Trump will win TX unfortunately.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2016, 04:30:53 pm »

Not surprised. Trump is the worst possible fit for Texas and the state could get embarrassingly close for him, even if he wins. With numbers like that, it's impossible for Trump to win the PV, even if he wins in the EC.
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2016, 04:30:59 pm »

Not the first TX poll the Trumpster is in trouble. But I'm still not convinced that we'll see #BattlegroundTX.
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2016, 04:31:25 pm »

This is junky Emerson, but it matches what PPP found earlier. Either way, Texas is fool's gold. If Hillary is winning or tied in Texas, she's already won the election in a landslide.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2016, 04:32:06 pm »

Junk.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2016, 04:36:43 pm »

Good news! If Trump underperforming in laaaarge Texas and Utah, but Hillary is still just 3% ahead, he is overperforming in the blue states!!!!!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2016, 04:39:23 pm »

Emerson is junky mcjunk junk.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2016, 04:40:49 pm »

Emerson is trash, so...
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2016, 04:42:09 pm »

Good news! If Trump underperforming in laaaarge Texas and Utah, but Hillary is still just 3% ahead, he is overperforming in the blue states!!!!!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
https://youtu.be/42usIHA3390
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2016, 04:47:26 pm »

OK, wow.  And this is Emerson that has like every NE and Midwest competitive state within 5.  Something weird is definitely going on this year.
Or it could be that Emerson polls the wrong people.
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2016, 04:54:12 pm »

Can't trust anything from Emerson even though this is a good poll for clinton
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2016, 04:55:45 pm »

Can't trust anything from Emerson even though this is a good poll for clinton
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2016, 05:09:14 pm »

Good news! If Trump underperforming in laaaarge Texas and Utah, but Hillary is still just 3% ahead, he is overperforming in the blue states!!!!!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Well, she's generally only up in the teens in NY and CA while Obama won them by 25-30.  Also, TX has extremely low turnout.  Total votes cast were on par with NY in 2012 even though NY has 9 fewer CDs and was hit by a hurricane the weekend before the election.  If TX is closer because a ton of dormant Dems are turning out and some dormant Trumpy indies as well, that won't skew the national results as much.

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You should compare polls to polls.
Hillary is definitely not doing worse than Obama i CA, likely better (may be by a lot >5%). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ca/california_romney_vs_obama-2009.html#polls
The same in Texas (may be >5%)
NY, probably you are right, but it wasn't much polling there, actually. I'd wait until Siena's poll. She's probably doing slightly worse than Obama. (Purple heart%)

So she is in general doing better in non-swing states. In polls, at least. Don't either forget that ~50% of hispanics live in CA/TX. That might "skew" nationall polls as well.

And BTH, right now I'd only be looking into nationall polls and states that was recently polled by at least >3 A/B pollsters. Othervise, you might get some surprises, when we'll have got more good polls :-P
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2016, 05:09:38 pm »

" Trump leads Clinton    in four out of six regions.   He does best in   the Houston suburbs, where his   
advantage  is   49%   to   25%. Her   greatest strength is in the   city   of Houston, where she leads 54%   to 33%.
   "   

IF this is accurate, Clinton is likely +10 in Harris County, flipping Fort Bend (Sugarland/Pearland) and keeping Republican numbers within 30% in the heavily Republican and affluent suburbs of Montgomery County (The Woodlands), which is exactly what Dems need to do to start making Texas competitive.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2016, 05:14:57 pm by NOVA Green »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2016, 05:12:45 pm »

Wow! Looks like Texas is a toss up folks, taking into account Emerson's heavy GOP lean.
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« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2016, 05:18:44 pm »

Emerson is basically mass producing garbage polls, Stein polling 6% is hilarious.
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2016, 05:20:50 pm »

Emerson is basically mass producing garbage polls, Stein polling 6% is hilarious.
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2016, 05:23:25 pm »

Emerson must really want a horserace and just decided to make every state they poll close!
Cheesy
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2016, 05:28:45 pm »

this is what makes this election so weird - why are National polls so narrow, some of the swing states so narrow, when normally Republican states like Texas, Georgia, Arizona are also within single digits.

This is why I worry about Trump winning the EV and losing the PV. Hillary runs up the margins in states like California, barely loses Texas and Georgia, but also barely loses Iowa and Nevada.

I think the chances of this happening are now over 10%. Hopefully I'm wrong.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2016, 05:36:55 pm »

Emerson must really want a horserace and just decided to make every state they poll close!

While Emerson might be a relative junk pollster, it is worth noting that Nate Silver currently has Texas at only an 8.1% Trump lead....
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2016, 07:13:07 pm »

this is what makes this election so weird - why are National polls so narrow, some of the swing states so narrow, when normally Republican states like Texas, Georgia, Arizona are also within single digits.

And why is Clinton struggling in blue states like Maine?

Personally, I'm hoping for a strange and interesting election night, so I'm all for it.
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2016, 07:38:46 pm »

There is a large disaffected Conservative population that has yet to warm to Trump as myself. Intense state pride like nowhere else, and the strong country culture that makes the state Republican. Yea, I really don't see competitiveness.
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