TX - Emerson College: Trump +6 (4 way) (user search)
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  TX - Emerson College: Trump +6 (4 way) (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX - Emerson College: Trump +6 (4 way)  (Read 3487 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: September 13, 2016, 04:36:43 PM »

Good news! If Trump underperforming in laaaarge Texas and Utah, but Hillary is still just 3% ahead, he is overperforming in the blue states!!!!!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2016, 05:09:14 PM »

Good news! If Trump underperforming in laaaarge Texas and Utah, but Hillary is still just 3% ahead, he is overperforming in the blue states!!!!!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Well, she's generally only up in the teens in NY and CA while Obama won them by 25-30.  Also, TX has extremely low turnout.  Total votes cast were on par with NY in 2012 even though NY has 9 fewer CDs and was hit by a hurricane the weekend before the election.  If TX is closer because a ton of dormant Dems are turning out and some dormant Trumpy indies as well, that won't skew the national results as much.

I was kind of joking, but not really Smiley


You should compare polls to polls.
Hillary is definitely not doing worse than Obama i CA, likely better (may be by a lot >5%). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ca/california_romney_vs_obama-2009.html#polls
The same in Texas (may be >5%)
NY, probably you are right, but it wasn't much polling there, actually. I'd wait until Siena's poll. She's probably doing slightly worse than Obama. (Purple heart%)

So she is in general doing better in non-swing states. In polls, at least. Don't either forget that ~50% of hispanics live in CA/TX. That might "skew" nationall polls as well.

And BTH, right now I'd only be looking into nationall polls and states that was recently polled by at least >3 A/B pollsters. Othervise, you might get some surprises, when we'll have got more good polls :-P
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2016, 05:23:25 PM »

Emerson must really want a horserace and just decided to make every state they poll close!
Cheesy
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