ME-SurveyUSA/Colby College/Boston Globe: Clinton +3
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  ME-SurveyUSA/Colby College/Boston Globe: Clinton +3
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Author Topic: ME-SurveyUSA/Colby College/Boston Globe: Clinton +3  (Read 3718 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: September 13, 2016, 05:51:19 PM »
« edited: September 13, 2016, 06:18:13 PM by Castro »

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 5%

The poll of 779 likely voters statewide was conducted via automated phone calls and web surveys from Sept. 4 through 10. It had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html?event=event25
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2016, 05:52:38 PM »

I love the lumberjacks!
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2016, 05:53:19 PM »

College poll, college poll.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2016, 05:54:41 PM »

Yay, looks like ME will be closer than NH! Cheesy

Congrats, TN.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2016, 05:55:30 PM »

They elected LePage; Trump is just a step down from there to the bottom or just at the same level. Clinton will win ME-01 and the at-large vote. ME-02 could swing for Trump.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2016, 05:56:03 PM »

Happy Dance
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2016, 06:03:26 PM »

Deplorables
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2016, 06:04:32 PM »

Never heard of this pollster, but I'll believe Maine being even remotely close when I see it.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2016, 06:05:50 PM »

Yay, looks like ME will be closer than NH! Cheesy
You'll better wait until new polls from NH Wink
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2016, 06:08:32 PM »

Never heard of this pollster, but I'll believe Maine being even remotely close when I see it.
Wait, whaaat?

You've never heard about SurveyUSA, a top-five pollster according to 538? Huh
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2016, 06:09:36 PM »

This thread has a wrong title. Mods, please change it to SurveyUSA! Smiley
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2016, 06:14:36 PM »

By the sheer amount of times LittleBigOctopus has posted, im sure hes bieng obnoxious.

Ehh, Maine wont be close. Neither will the second district, just like 2012.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2016, 06:15:29 PM »

This thread has a wrong title. Mods, please change it to SurveyUSA! Smiley

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2016, 06:17:01 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 06:19:14 PM by LittleBigOctopus »

This thread has a wrong title. Mods, please change it to SurveyUSA! Smiley

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They bought the poll that was conducted by...

Ehm why didn't you quote the whole part?
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So poll is from Colby College-Boston Globe, but conducted by SurveyUSA Wink
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2016, 06:18:17 PM »

This thread has a wrong title. Mods, please change it to SurveyUSA! Smiley

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They bought the poll that was conducted by...
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So poll is from Colby College-Boston Globe, but conducted by SurveyUSA Wink

It doesn't matter who conducts it, but who designs it.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2016, 06:19:21 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 06:21:34 PM by Castro »

This thread has a wrong title. Mods, please change it to SurveyUSA! Smiley

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They bought the poll that was conducted by...
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So poll is from Colby College-Boston Globe, but conducted by SurveyUSA Wink

Ah woops, I missed that part. I assumed when they said Colby College-Boston Globe poll that they actually meant it was a Colby College-Boston Globe poll. The OP has been changed.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2016, 06:20:36 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 06:22:27 PM by LittleBigOctopus »

It doesn't matter who conducts it, but who designs it.
Ehm...







Oh, and this poll was conducted before "Deplorables"/pneumonia...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2016, 06:22:25 PM »


?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2016, 06:23:42 PM »

The one county that votes Republican only did so by about 4% in 2012. I'm not sure why everyone is so determined to believe that Trump will win ME-2, because it's really not all that favorable to normal Republican presidential candidates. Bush only got 46% there both times.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2016, 06:25:25 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 06:27:12 PM by LittleBigOctopus »

What do you mean by "designs it"? LV-model?

I don't think, that it works that way...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2016, 06:28:22 PM »


The methodology can be designed by entity A, yet the project could be conducted by entity B. The quality of the results are primarily restricted by entity A's methodology more than entity B's field practices.

The same logic was used against the PPP polls conducted in a number of states when they were hired by the local Democratic party.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2016, 06:36:48 PM »


The methodology can be designed by entity A, yet the project could be conducted by entity B. The quality of the results are primarily restricted by entity A's methodology more than entity B's field practices.

OK. As I said, I don't think, that it works that way. They can probably influence how questions are formulated or which model to use: 2-way/2-way, RV/LV etc. But even then, I think, that political part of the poll is done solely by USASurvey.

The same logic was used against the PPP polls conducted in a number of states when they were hired by the local Democratic party.

The criticism was mainly about that the client chooses whether publish the pol or notl. But I doubt that Boston Globe would do it.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2016, 06:45:45 PM »

Let's not get bogged down by that, it's a SUSA poll. Important questions: What does this poll mean? Does it mean things? Let's find out.
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mencken
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2016, 06:48:29 PM »

Let's not get bogged down by that, it's a SUSA poll. Important questions: What does this poll mean? Does it mean things? Let's find out.

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Free Bird
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2016, 07:00:31 PM »

Why oh why would you poll Maine statewide instead of CD by CD?
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