OH - Suffolk: Trump + 3

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/776449329217220608

Trump - 42
Clinton - 39
Johnson - 4
Stein - 1

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like good debate performances can lock this up for Clinton. She has to be at the top of her game and promptly dispatch Trump, especially in the first debate.

[Fusionmunster]

Seems right.

[KingSweden]

Definitely a Trump advantage here right now. I think this is probably the right margin as of this moment, too.

[The Other Castro]

Is that Richard Duncan with 1%?

[Classic Conservative]

It looks like Ohio is between Trump +3-5

[bilaps]

Looks like good debate performances can lock this up for Clinton. She has to be at the top of her game and promptly dispatch Trump, especially in the first debate.

LOL

That's your comment on another poll showing Trump ahead in OH

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like good debate performances can lock this up for Clinton. She has to be at the top of her game and promptly dispatch Trump, especially in the first debate.

LOL

That's your comment on another poll showing Trump ahead in OH

That's right. It is by no means locked up.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php link to the full crosstabs and such

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA is a blue state and OH is a red state, now.

[StatesPoll]

[Xing]

Yeah, Trump's a bit ahead here, but Hillary led by this same margin not that long ago, so it's not like he's got Ohio.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't need OH, Clinton makes up for it in VA and CO.

[Person Man]

Dems don't need OH, Clinton makes up for it in VA and CO.

The new must win states for Ds: VA,CO, WI, and PA.

[Mr. Smith]

Dems don't need OH, Clinton makes up for it in VA and CO.

The new must win states for Ds: VA,CO, WI, and PA.

NC for good measure.

[Shadows]

Yeah, Trump's a bit ahead here, but Hillary led by this same margin not that long ago, so it's not like he's got Ohio.

At this stage consistent tracking polls for 3-4 months are only good enough to support historical date to decide which states to decide.

No swing state is locked up. If Hillary or Trump have 3 brilliant debate performances, this race is going +3/+4 to either side nationally & then you can forget worrying about individual states.

Obama did fantastic in the debates against Romney & McCain which helped his convincing victory!

[Suburbia]

This will make the Rust Belt Dems upset. Rendell, Brown, etc better campaign in OH NOW. And I mean NOW.

[Kempros]

Just makes it all certain that Trump must be up, since this is the 3rd poll in his favor.

[NOVA Green]

It looks like Ohio is between Trump +3-5

This sounds about right.... OH is getting to a point where even a top notch GOTV ground game are unlikely to flip at this state in the race.

National numbers need to move to Clinton +3% to make a ground game work, and Clinton needs to find a way of addressing Millennial holdouts and shift of support from Clinton to Johnson ASAP.