OK-SoonerPoll/NewsOK: Trump+15
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Author Topic: OK-SoonerPoll/NewsOK: Trump+15  (Read 1053 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 17, 2016, 09:35:57 PM »

51% Trump
36% Clinton
  6% Johnson

The poll of 515 Oklahoma likely voters was conducted between September 13-15. It carries a margin of error of 4.32 percent. The poll's results were stratified to represent the state's likely voter population.

http://newsok.com/clinton-gains-some-ground-on-trump-in-oklahoma-poll-shows/article/5518562
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2016, 09:37:17 PM »

Very low-energy lead. Of course, he'll win the state by 30+ regardless.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2016, 09:37:58 PM »

I've seen shockingly few Trump signs here. But yes, this poll is wrong, Trump wins this state by at least 28.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2016, 09:41:31 PM »

this was one of the states which disliked obama the most....and it is quite similar to texas....not really a surprise.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2016, 09:42:02 PM »

Oh, another Austrian ...
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2016, 09:42:20 PM »

Butthurt over Cruz?
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2016, 09:46:03 PM »

lolno. Trump's going to win OK by at least 30.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2016, 09:48:20 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2016, 09:51:12 PM by Maxwell »


for some reason, it's not that... it's DEMOCRATS coming home. (trump only getting 20% of Democrats as opposed to 26%).

Which is super odd but in statewide politics it makes sense - Democrats are actually running credible candidates in a lot of areas for State Senate and House where Democrats were left for dead awhile ago, thanks to Mary Fallin and the Republican leaderships utterly incompetent reign. 
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2016, 09:51:44 PM »

Trump in freefall.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2016, 09:52:02 PM »


generally surprised how many europeans are here in general, thought i was quite alone with my geeky interest in foreign elections. :-P
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2016, 10:11:44 PM »

I do warn everyone that SoonerPoll is not very good at this.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2016, 10:41:09 PM »

Wow, looks like a full-on nationwide Trump collapse. SAD!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2016, 10:47:03 PM »

Clinton will probably get 36% in the end.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2016, 10:48:13 PM »

watching those numbers, i wonder if this election really is going to become a double-wave-election with white-collar voters running for camp hillary and blue-collar-voters entering trump fortress.

could make the electoral college more out of synch with the public vote than in the past, since white collar/blue collar voters are concentrated in different states.

if trump wins or loses by a really small margin, i guess the republican orthodoxy of reaganism will be updated in a most decisive way. personally i am most interested, if the union-bashing, which seems to have become the heart and soul of republicanism, would really continue to work in overdrive and try to "convert" all states available to the right-to-work-paradigm, if more and more potentially unionized voters enter the party.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2016, 12:29:18 AM »


for some reason, it's not that... it's DEMOCRATS coming home. (trump only getting 20% of Democrats as opposed to 26%).

Which is super odd but in statewide politics it makes sense - Democrats are actually running credible candidates in a lot of areas for State Senate and House where Democrats were left for dead awhile ago, thanks to Mary Fallin and the Republican leaderships utterly incompetent reign. 

Any pickup predictions, Maxwell?
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2016, 12:47:36 AM »


for some reason, it's not that... it's DEMOCRATS coming home. (trump only getting 20% of Democrats as opposed to 26%).

Which is super odd but in statewide politics it makes sense - Democrats are actually running credible candidates in a lot of areas for State Senate and House where Democrats were left for dead awhile ago, thanks to Mary Fallin and the Republican leaderships utterly incompetent reign. 

Any pickup predictions, Maxwell?

I don't have exact numbers, but I believe one very possible one is my very own state senate district, where fairly moderate (read: for Oklahoma) Republican Brian Crane (and even then only won by like 10 in 2012) is retiring, and the Democrats are running a likable, intelligent, former social studies teacher named John Waldron, who has made his focus nearly 100% on education, a subject that is getting a lot of play here. His opponent, Republican Dave Rader, is a former TU football coach and someone whose candidacy is based almost entirely on name recognition. I suspect Waldron narrowly beats Rader.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2016, 02:54:18 AM »

RIP Bushie and his Christian Candidate Trump.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2016, 03:56:51 AM »

lolno. Trump's going to win OK by at least 30.

I'm not so sure about that this year. For the first time since 2000, there will be more than two parties on the ballot this year in Oklahoma. I've always heard Oklahoma has some of the strictest ballot access laws in the country (and that is apparent through that fact), but how rigorous are the requirements and why is that state particularly bad?

Oklahoma is interesting only in the fact that is not interesting. The past three elections have been a virtual statis in terms of presidential politics. The difference in each parties result between 2004 and 2008 was 0.08%. Romney managed to gain 1.12% to break the 2/3 mark. But in all three elections, Republicans swept every county. Kerry came very close to winning at least one or even a couple counties. The same cannot be said for Obama. I do wonder if Hillary can break that streak, but I'm hesitant on account of her particularly poor primary performance. I don't know how much that will make a difference one way or the other. Personally, I think Trump probably wins Oklahoma by 25-30%. It she wins a county, it could be Oklahoma or one of the counties to the southeast of Tulsa.

Looking at past results, is it a high Native American vote that drives up Democratic performance in counties like Cherokee, Muskogee, and McIntosh? It sounds obvious by some of the names, but I feel like asking anyway for those in the know.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2016, 09:14:13 AM »

Clinton will probably get 36% in the end.
That would be a good performance still. Obama got 33 when no 3rd party on the ballot. Trump might not even break 60.
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