The liberal Republic

[Sir Mohamed]

Love this TL! Go RFK!

Curious to see what happens with Wallace and General Wastemoremen... Edward Brooke would be an interesting VP for either candidate on the GOP side.

[President Johnson]

February 8, 1972

★★★ DECISION ?72 ? Election Special: New Hampshire Primary: Humphrey upsets Kennedy; Rockefeller wins decisively ★★★

Democratic Primary
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 39.5%
Robert F. Kennedy: 37.0%
George McGovern: 15.1%
George Wallace: 7.3%

A huge upset in New Hampshire on the Democratic side: Hubert Humphrey wins! And the polling error is much wider than in Iowa. Obviously, the senator has picked up a lot of undecided support during the final days of the campaign. Interestingly, HHH went in just the week before the polls opened with a strong ground operation (his supporters knocked on thousands of doors). RFK?s start into the primary season turns out more troubling than both political pundits and the vice president himself expected. A spokesperson of the Kennedy campaign told the press the next day, that some organizational changes will be made before the next round of voting later that month. Both Wallace and McGovern just received little support in the Granite State.



Senator Hubert Humphrey unexpectetly triumphes in New Hampshire. "I thank you very much, my beloved Democrats", he commented.


Republican Primary
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 62.8%
Spiro Agnew: 20.0%
Ronald Reagan: 15.9%
William Westmoreland: 1.1%

On the Republican side, there is no upset: As expected, Nelson Rockefeller wins overwhelmingly. Ronald Reagan suffers a big defeat. Although he never had illusions to beat Rockefeller here, the California governor certainly expected to come in second. But Spiro Agnew received more votes and continues to perform better than expected. However, the Reagan campaign virtually wrote the state off, as Nelson Rockefeller is very popular in this region. New England, the home of the liberal Republicans, is just the perfect fit for Rocky.



No surprise at all: Governor Nelson Rockefeller wins in New Hampshire, home of the liberal Republicans


February 9, 1972 ? BREAKING: Senator George McGovern quits presidential campaign



"I have done my best but fell short", Senator George McGovern said upon dropping out of the Democratic primaries

He called it a ?brief and intensive experience?, when Senator George McGovern announced the end of his campaign. ?We put out a good message for progress, peace and justice, but despite our efforts, we fell short. I fell short. Therefore, I end my candidacy for president?, Senator McGovern told his supports, who expected him to stay longer in the race. Afterwards, he declined an endorsement for the primary, but took a clear position against George Wallace (?if it isn?t Wallace, I will support the Democratic candidate?).


Secretary General Leonid Brezhnev?s visit to the United States and signing of SALT I Treaty; February 12 ? 13, 1972


At the end of over two years of negotiations, Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev for the first time visits the United States. At Camp David, he met President Lyndon Johnson for the signing of the SALT I Treaty. President Johnson, upon the signing ceremony, described the agreement as follows: ?The agreement freezes the number of strategic ballistic missile launchers at existing levels and provided for the addition of new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launchers only after the same number of older intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and SLBM launchers had been dismantled. SALT I also limits land-based ICBMs that were in range from the northeastern border of the continental United States to the northwestern border of the continental USSR. In addition to that, SALT I limited the number of SLBM capable submarines that NATO and the United States could operate to 50 with a maximum of 800 SLBM launchers between them. If the United States or NATO were to increase that number, the USSR could respond with increasing their arsenal by the same amount. I want to thank my Soviet partners and the negotiators, who spent many hours working this piece of paper out.?^[1]

During the entire event, the U.S. press had almost unlimited access to the president and his guest. At night, a typical Texas barbecue after LBJ?s taste was served. Both leaders spoke of ?very productive talks? and expressed their willingness, to stay engaged in negotiations for further arms reduction. Just after the final communique was made public, Vice President Robert Kennedy made it clear, a Kennedy Administration would continue Johnson?s foreign policy in that regard. The vice president was originally scheduled to be on the campaign trail, but he and Senator Humphrey were invited to the ceremony. Both meet with Secretary Brezhnev, who agreed to talk to the two men, who have a decent shot to assume the presidency coming next year.

The agreement was opposed by many conservatives. Ronald Reagan described the participation of Robert Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey as a ?PR stunt by the president to boost these gentlemen?s polling numbers.?
 

February 20, 1972: Westmoreland: I?ll drop out if I don?t win South Carolina

Two days before voters heading to the polls in Nevada and South Carolina, General Westmoreland stated that he will suspend his campaign if he doesn?t win the South Carolina Republican primary. ?If I can?t win my homestate, I have no path to the nod?, the general is quoted. The state was not polled in the days before the election.



Note [1]: The original quote is largely from Wikipedia

[President Johnson]

February 22, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Kennedy wins in Nevada, Wallace in South Carolina; Reagan victorious in both; Westmoreland drops out, endorses Reagan ★★★

South Carolina Democratic Primary
✓ George Wallace: 58.5%
Robert F. Kennedy: 22.7%
Hubert Humphrey: 17.2%
 

Nevada Democratic Caucus
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 48.8%
Hubert Humphrey: 40.2%
George Wallace: 10.5%

In South Carolina and Nevada, Hubert Humphrey’s streak of two consecutive successes was broken. In South Carolina, George Wallace won over Hubert Humphrey and Robert Kennedy pretty easily. In Nevada, Vice President Kennedy could celebrate his first primary triumph. He defeated Senator Humphrey by over eight points. George Wallace just barely made it to double digits.


South Carolina Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 41.0%
William Westmoreland: 24.3%
Spiro Agnew: 17.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 16.2%


Nevada Republican Caucus
✓ Ronald Reagan: 36.9%
Nelson Rockefeller: 34.3%
Spiro Agnew: 21.5%
William Westmoreland: 5.6%



Governor Reagan won both contests of February 22, 1972

The Gipper has every reason to smile again: He won both contests on the GOP side this February 22. “I am deeply honored to receive that many endorsements. But we don’t get ahead of ourselves”, the California governor commented his victories. Nevertheless, both states were expected to vote in his favor. Spiro Agnew continues to exceed expectations, as he seems to appeal to these Republicans who regard Reagan as too conservative and Rockefeller as too liberal. For Rocky, this day is overall a disappointment, although he overperformed polls in Nevada and managed to come in a close second. More concern for the Rockefeller campaign is the poor result in South Carolina, where he came in dead last despite an intense campaign effort (some political observers suggested the New York governor may have won Nevada, had he spent the time and money there rather than S.C.). The result is an indicator that Rockefeller, a liberal New York Republican, is not appealing to many Southerners.

After General William Westmoreland came in second in his homestate of South Carolina, he officially suspended his campaign. “I made a promise. And I will keep it. As I was not successful to convince enough Republican voters that I can lead this nation, I end my campaign for president”, the general told supporters and the media. He closed his remarks by endorsing Ronald Reagan: “Looking at the remaining contenders in this race, I will support Governor Reagan for president. He is the right kind of leader in the times we live […]” With Westmoreland’s exit, the Republican field is now also narrowed down to three candidates.



General Westmoreland's campaign comes to an end, as he missed to gain enough support. No surpirse: He endorsed Ronald Reagan after leaving the race.


February 29, 1972: A ton of new polls! Released by Gallup

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 40%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 37%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 33%
Former Governor George Wallace: 20%
Undecided: 10%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Ronald Reagan: 40%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 35%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 21%
Undecided: 4%


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Ronald Reagan: 47%

Robert F. Kennedy: 43%
Nelson Rockefeller: 46%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Spiro Agnew: 45%


Hubert Humphrey: 44%
Ronald Reagan: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 44%
Nelson Rockefeller: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 45%
Spiro Agnew: 42%


George Wallace: 42%
Ronald Reagan: 47%

George Wallace: 42%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45%

George Wallace: 42%
Spiro Agnew: 44%


March 3, 1972: Reagan campaign releases economic program; Kennedy, Humphrey and Rockefeller respond



If elected president, Governor Reagan wants to cut taxes and spending at the same time. The size of government is also a problem in the Gipper's eyes. Days before Super Tuesday, he presented his plans to the public

Just days before Super Tuesday, as the media called the date where over dozen of states hold their primaries, Ronald Reagan presented his economic plan to the public. The plan consists a 35% cut in corporate taxes and a 25% across-the-board tax break for all incomes. The California governor also promised to “strip apart as many regulations as possible”. He also emphasized to decrease the size of the federal government and spoke of an “out of control bureaucracy owned by the Johnson/Kennedy Administration”. Like at most of his rallies, the Gipper directly attacks the Johnson Administration and Vice President Kennedy on policy rather than his primary opponents. Only Governor Rockefeller is frequently mentioned, criticizing his record in New York: “Governor Rockefeller talks about making government more efficient, but his record tells otherwise. Let the voters determine this question.” Reagan further outlined that his plan would lead to over six percent economic growth and compensate the revenue losses through the massive tax cuts.

Only hours later, Vice President Robert Kennedy slammed the governor's plans at one of his rallies. "Mr. Reagan seeks to make polcies for his rich crownies and not the average American. I reject his plans", the Democratic frontrunner said. His rival Senator Humphrey dennounced the plan as well, calling it "complete nonsense". And Republican hopeful Nelson Rockefeller, Reagan's top competitator, responded to the plan: "With all due respect, I do not believe this package solves our problems. I support spending cuts where possible, but Governor Reagan's proposals are unbalanced and not realistic".


Next: Super Tuesday on March 7, 1972... stay tuned!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Go Reagan

[President Johnson]

March 7, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Super Tuesday! All three Democratic candidates win key races; Reagan carries most contests, Rockefeller second, Agnew wins no states ★★★





Democratic Contests



Alabama
✓ George Wallace: 80.6%
Hubert Humphrey: 10.2%
Robert F. Kennedy: 7.8%

Alaska
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 47.8%
Robert F. Kennedy: 42.3%
George Wallace: 7.0%

Arkansas
✓ George Wallace: 51.0%
Robert F. Kennedy: 30.1%
Hubert Humphrey: 18.3%

Colorado
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 50.1%
Robert F. Kennedy: 41.3%
George Wallace: 7.7%

Georgia
✓ George Wallace: 45.6%
Robert F. Kennedy: 38.7%
Hubert Humphrey: 16.6%

Kansas
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 45.1%
Robert F. Kennedy: 34.7%
George Wallace: 19.9%

Kentucky
✓ George Wallace: 36.8%
Robert F. Kennedy: 33.3%
Hubert Humphrey: 29.3%

Louisiana
✓ George Wallace: 60.4%
Robert F. Kennedy: 22.6%
Hubert Humphrey: 17.0%

Maine
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 47.2%
Hubert Humphrey: 43.4%
George Wallace: 8.1%

Massachusetts
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 85.5%
Hubert Humphrey: 8.9%
George Wallace: 2.8%

Minnesota
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 61.3%
Robert F. Kennedy: 31.9%
George Wallace: 6.0%

North Dakota
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 49.3%
Robert F. Kennedy: 42.7%
George Wallace: 6.5%

Oklahoma
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 37.5%
George Wallace: 33.8%
Hubert Humphrey: 27.9%

Tennessee
✓ George Wallace: 46.4%
Robert F. Kennedy: 32.5%
Hubert Humphrey: 21.1%

Texas
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 38.8%
George Wallace: 31.0%
Hubert Humphrey: 29.6%

Vermont
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 53.3%
Hubert Humphrey: 40.2%
George Wallace: 5,3%

Virginia
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 33.0%
George Wallace: 32.4%
Hubert Humphrey: 31.6%

Wyoming
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 42.5%
Hubert Humphrey: 38.3%
George Wallace: 19.0%

All three remaining Democratic candidates manage to win states, mostly those they were expected to be ahead. After underperforming in Iowa and New Hampshire, Vice President Kennedy picks up the most delegates on this Super Tuesday. In an upset, he won in Texas and Virginia. The latter went extremely close into RFK’s column, with each contender winning roughly a third of the vote. Senator Humphrey did well in the Midwest and the Great Plains, as he enjoys high support among farmers in these regions. He also pulled it off in Alaska, though that states awards just few delegates. George Wallace mostly keeps his southern base also won states in the Upper South such as Kentucky. He received some fair numbers in rural states as well, but struggles in New England to win substantial support.

As of March 7, 1972, the Democratic primary map looks as follows:

Robert F. Kennedy: ~ 15% of delegates
Hubert Humphrey: ~ 13% of delegates
George Wallace: ~ 9% of delegates

(delegates won so far out of all delegates; majority needed)
 

Republican Contests



Alabama
✓ Ronald Reagan: 60.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 28.8%
Spiro Agnew: 11.1%

Alaska
✓ Ronald Reagan: 45.0%
Nelson Rockefeller: 40.8%
Spiro Agnew: 11.1%

Arkansas
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 43.3%
Ronald Reagan: 42.8%
Spiro Agnew: 12.4%

Colorado
✓ Ronald Reagan: 48.0%
Nelson Rockefeller: 36.9%
Spiro Agnew: 14.6%

Georgia
✓ Ronald Reagan: 54.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 34.3%
Spiro Agnew: 13.1%

Kansas
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 40.7%
Ronald Reagan: 38.5%
Spiro Agnew: 20.4%

Kentucky
✓ Ronald Reagan: 37.2%
Spiro Agnew: 32.8%
Nelson Rockefeller: 29.6%

Louisiana
✓ Ronald Reagan: 52.1%
Nelson Rockefeller: 38.0%
Spiro Agnew: 10.4%

Maine
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 62.0%
Ronald Reagan: 25.9%
Spiro Agnew: 11.8%

Massachusetts
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 70.8%
Spiro Agnew: 15.8%
Ronald Reagan: 13.0%

Minnesota
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 41.2%
Ronald Reagan: 41.0%
Spiro Agnew: 17.6%

North Dakota
✓ Ronald Reagan: 39.3%
Nelson Rockefeller: 37.0%
Spiro Agnew: 23.3%

Oklahoma
✓ Ronald Reagan: 43.5%
Nelson Rockefeller: 35.8%
Spiro Agnew: 20.9%

Tennessee
✓ Ronald Reagan: 45.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 27.0%
Spiro Agnew: 26.3%

Texas
✓ Ronald Reagan: 40.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 33.8%
Spiro Agnew: 24.2%

Vermont
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 65.1%
Ronald Reagan: 20.6%
Spiro Agnew: 13.8%

Virginia
✓ Ronald Reagan: 36.7%
Spiro Agnew: 31.9%
Nelson Rockefeller: 31.1%

Wyoming
✓ Ronald Reagan: 44.0%
Nelson Rockefeller: 34.8%
Spiro Agnew: 20.8%

Ronald Reagan sweeps the South and most of the Great Plains! The Gipper is the victor of the day, as he carries most states that voted. As the Reagan campaign gains momentum, Governor Paul Laxalt, a supporter, told the press: “Let me conclude one thing: The results show Governor Reagan’s broad appeal across the country. He’s the most competitive GOP candidate for November.” Meanwhile, the Rockefeller campaign downplayed the results and pointed out that Rocky won all states he was supposed to take plus Kansas, Minnesota and Arkansas, where his brother Winthrop is governor. The candidate’s supporter George Romney said at a television appearance: “As the primaries soon move to the large industrial states, I believe Nelson Rockefeller will win a large junk of the delegates. He has definitely a path to at least 50% of the pledged delegates”. For Spiro Agnew, the day was a disappointment. So far, he exceeded expectations by winning larger portions of the vote than expected before voting began. Nevertheless, the Maryland governor wasn’t able win any state so far, what puts him under increasing pressure. But he confirmed, he will continue his campaign. Some journalists and Maryland Republicans suggested Agnew may become the nominee if the convention ends up in a deadlock between Reagan and Rockefeller. Both Reagan and Rockefeller rejected this analysis. “It is either Governor Rockefeller or myself”, the Gipper remarked.

As of March 7, 1972, the Republican primary map looks as follows:

Ronald Reagan: ~ 24% of delegates
Nelson Rockefeller: ~ 11% of delegates
Spiro Agnew: ~ 2% of delegates

(delegates won so far out of all delegates; majority needed)

[President Johnson]

March 14, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: RFK wins three more states, Wallace one; Reagan ahead in three contests, Rockefeller wins important Michigan primary ★★★

Voters on both sides headed to the polls in Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi. The results are as follows:

Democratic contests

Hawaii
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 54.2%
Hubert Humphrey: 41.8%
George Wallace: 3.9%

Idaho
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 44.1%
Hubert Humphrey: 39.6%
George Wallace: 15.8%

Michigan
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 47.9%
Hubert Humphrey: 47.5%
George Wallace: 4.4%

Mississippi
✓ George Wallace: 60.1%
Robert F. Kennedy: 24.7%
Hubert Humphrey: 14.3%

Vice President Kennedy emerges victorious in three out of four contests on this day. Most important is his win in Michigan, where he received strong African American support around Detroit, that pulled him ahead of Senator Humphrey, who received many votes from blue collar workers. George Wallace was not able to gain much support in northern states, though he won Mississippi by wide margin. RFK now expanded his delegate lead over Humphrey.


Republican contests

Hawaii
✓ Ronald Reagan: 40.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 40.0%
Spiro Agnew: 19.7%

Idaho
✓ Ronald Reagan: 49.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 36.7%
Spiro Agnew: 13.0%

Michigan
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 59.8%
Ronald Reagan: 24.6%
Spiro Agnew: 15.5%

Mississippi
✓ Ronald Reagan: 57.1%
Nelson Rockefeller: 30.8%
Spiro Agnew: 10.7%

Ronald Reagan once more proved his electability in the South as well as in rural states where he won pretty easily. Surprisingly, he was also able to edge out a narrow victory in Hawaii. The biggest prize of the day, however, was Michigan, where Nelson Rockefeller could celebrate a decisive win. He was largely supported by urban voters (he won 90% in Detroit), blue collar workers as well as blacks. The endorsement of popular former governor George Romney, who campaigned for Rocky, also played a role in the New York Governor's victory. Spiro Agnew came in third in all four races, raising speculation that he soon might leave the race.


March 15, 1972: Spiro Agnew is out! Now it's REAGAN vs. ROCKEFELLER



"We worked hard, but it wasn't enough after all", said Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew upon leaving the race for the GOP presidential nomination, leaving Ronald Reagan and Nelson Rockefeller as the only remaining contenders

"We ran a decent campaign from the middle", Governor Agnew told his supports back in Maryland, "but it is now clear, that Republican voters are heavily divided between my distinguished colleagues Nelson Rockefeller and Ronald Reagan. One of these two will be the nominee. [...] I shall be neutral for the rest of the primary season and I urge each of my supporters to take a look at these two men and make their own judgement. In the end, it comes down to beat Kennedy and Humphrey. Thank you very much". Agnew hoped to position himself as the man acceptable for both wings of the party by running on a pro-civil rights, law and order and "lean government without leaving the needy behind" platform. Obviously, despite winning decent voter shares in some states, he was overshadowed by Reagan and Rockefeller. Despite dropping out now, Agnew made his name well known across the country and political pundits wrote he might be a good vice presidential pick for either of the two remaining competitors or may also take an important cabinet post in a future Republican administration.

Now that he is out, it remains to be seen where is voters and more importantly, his delegates, will go in the end. A brief poll made the next day by Gallup among Agnew supporters showed that exactly 40% each support Rockefeller and Reagan. Now, with two candidates remaining, it seems like the Republican primaries are a true nail biter between Ronald Reagan and Nelson Rockefeller. And this battle may define the party for years if not decades to come.

[President Johnson]

March 21, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Super Tuesday II: Humphrey wins key races, Wallace ahead in the South; Rockefeller gains ground in industrial Mid-West and upsets Reagan in Florida ★★★

The press spoke of a "Second Super Tuesday", as voters headed to the polls to cast their ballots for a party candidate in several more states.




Democratic contests

Arizona
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 46.8%
Hubert Humphrey: 39.1%
George Wallace: 14.0%

District of Columbia
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 81.5%
Hubert Humphrey: 17.5%
George Wallace: 0.9%

Florida
✓ George Wallace: 36.4%
Robert F. Kennedy: 33.3%
Hubert Humphrey: 30.0%

Illinois
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 46.5%
Robert F. Kennedy: 43.2%
George Wallace: 10.2%

Missouri
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 38.1%
Hubert Humphrey: 34.8%
George Wallace: 27.0%

North Carolina
✓ George Wallace:34.7%
Hubert Humphrey: 34.1%
Robert F. Kennedy: 30.9%

Ohio
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 48.0%
Robert F. Kennedy: 43.5%
George Wallace: 8.3%

Utah
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 52.2%
Robert F. Kennedy: 35.9%
George Wallace: 11.7%



Senator Hubert Humphrey talks to the press after winning important primaries. "We have a decent shot at the nomination", he remarked

The winner of the day on the Democratic side is Hubert Humphrey. After setbacks in the last few races the senator and former vice president managed to win important primaries in the Mid-West and the West. Members of the Kennedy campaign already hoped they could lock up the nomination for the vice president, but Humphrey's popularity among blue collar workers in the mid-west and the strong backing of unions gave him the newest streak of wins. Although RFK received strong support from African American communities, it was not enough to stop HHH, whose campaign now also begun to reach out to blacks, pointing out his strong support for civil rights. Surprisingly, Humphrey came in a close second in North Carolina, where he missed just a few hundred votes to come within a half percentage point to demand a recount. In addition to North Carolina, George Wallace also won in Florida, a state, where Vice President Kennedy hoped to pull off a similar victory like in Virginia, where he narrowly won with each contender getting a third of the vote.

As of late March, the nomination is still undecided, though Governor Wallace has de facto no chance anymore to win at the convention floor. The only thing he can do is preventing RFK and HHH from winning the necessary 50% of delegates and play the kingmaker (assuming neither of the two frontrunners quits before).

The state of the Democratic race so far looks like this:

Robert F. Kennedy: ~ 23% of delegates
Hubert Humphrey: ~ 19% of delegates
George Wallace: ~ 16% of delegates

(delegates won so far out of all delegates; majority needed)


Republican contests

Arizona
✓ Ronald Reagan: 60.4%
Nelson Rockefeller: 37.7%

District of Columbia
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 86.8%
Ronald Reagan: 12.7%

Florida
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 51.5%
Ronald Reagan: 48.2%

Illinois
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 59.5%
Ronald Reagan: 40.1%

Missouri
✓ Ronald Reagan: 51.3%
Nelson Rockefeller: 48.5%

North Carolina
✓ Ronald Reagan: 53.5%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45.3%

Ohio
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 58.6%
Ronald Reagan: 41.4%

Utah
✓ Ronald Reagan: 63.2%
Nelson Rockefeller: 36.6%



A smiling Nelson Rockefeller in the midst of a crowd of supporters, celebrating his upset win in Florida and the victories in other key states

Anybody who wrote off Nelson Rockefeller after a series of defeat proofed to be wrong on this day. As the primaries moved to the Mid-West, Rocky secured relatively easy wins over Ronald Reagan due to his staunch support from most unions as well as African Americans (those voting in the Republican primaries). The biggest upset, however, came in Florida, where Rockefeller defeated Reagan by a close margin. All polls had him trailing in the Sunshine State by at least six or seven points, but as the results came in, it became evident, that the New York Governor would emerge victorious. Rockefeller campaign aides claimed the results demonstrates, that their hopeful was very well able to win elections in the South. Ronald Reagan congratulated his opponent and said he still believes, he's going to be the nominee. The Gipper also got three less significant triumphs this day: He won Missouri, Utah and North Carolina.


As of March 21, the Republican map looks like this:

Ronald Reagan: ~ 33% of delegates
Nelson Rockefeller: ~ 27% of delegates
Spiro Agnew: ~ 3% of delegates

(delegates won so far out of all delegates; majority needed)


March 27, 1972: Henry Kissinger leaves White House and joins Rockefeller campaign



Henry Kissinger delivers a brief speech before leaving the White House... he now wants to help Nelson Rockefeller winning the presidency

"It was a great honor to serve President Johnson in the past two and a half years", remarked Henry Kisinger upon leaving government, "now it is time for me to focus on a new task. I want to help my old mentor and friend, Governor Rockefeller, winning the presidency. Therefore, I will depart from the White House. At least for now."

After serving President Lyndon Johnson for over two years, Henry Kissinger left his post as foreign policy advisor and returns to his old mentor Nelson Rockefeller. He joins the campaign as foreign policy advisor. Should Rocky win the Oval Office, it is certain that Mr. Kissinger will be part of the team. The New York Times listed him as the most likely Secretary of State under a President Rockefeller. It is not certain whether he would play a role in a Reagan Administration, though the liberal GOP wing could demand a Kissinger appointment as concession from the Reagan camp should Rockefeller not be the nominee. Even more unlikely is a position under another Democratic president. Especially Robert Kennedy originally opposed his appointment in 1969. But President Johnson's high regard for the former Nixon aide brought him a job in the LBJ White House. Richard Nixon himself has already endorsed Rockefeller for president in January.

[President Johnson]

March 30, 1972: President Johnson presents Universal Healthcare proposal



President Johnson talking to the press after presenting the healthcare proposal

Political observers were stunned when President Lyndon Johnson in his January 1972 State of the Union Address urged congress to enact universal healthcare legislation as soon as possible. Now that he's come forward with a specific proposal that would cover all Americans with basic healthcare, he underlined the importance of this initiative. Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), who was heavily involved in the process, said he will introduce a bill within a few weeks to the senate health committee. "We can pass this by summer", RFK's younger brother said. Ted Kennedy already pushed for such a bill in 1969, but LBJ decided to go with the ChildCare Legislation first.

Bobby Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey both endorsed the initiative and promised to continue work on the issue in any case. "If reactionary forces think they have defeated this, if it doesn't pass this year, they are wrong. I will put on top of my agenda as your president", Vice President remarked at a Wisconsin rally. George Wallace said he's open to "more benefits for the needy", but said he wants to see the entire bill before taking a final stance.

On the Republican side, Governor Rockefeller said he thinks passage this year is unlikely, but added: "Healthcare for all is a wonderful idea. As president, I will come up with a plan that covers everyone but is economically and fiscally sound. And I will get it done in a bipartisan way." Governor Reagan denounced the initiative as "another step towards socialized medicine". He promised that he will make changes to the tax code that would allow every citizen coverage.


March 31, 1972: A ton of new polls! Released by Gallup

While President Johnson's approval rating remains stable at over 50%, Hubert Humphrey narrows the gap to Bobby Kennedy's top position. Almost a fourth of Democrats want George Wallace as their candidate. On the Republican side, both Governor Reagan and Rockefeller poll almost even at 46% and 44%, respectively, but short of a majority. One in ten GOP voters remain undecided. In the general election polls, there is a shift towards the Democratic candidates. Even George Wallace now polls even with the remaining Republican contenders. However, with several more primaries to go, the race is still wide open.


President Johnson job approval
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 43%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 38%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 34%
Former Governor George Wallace: 23%
Undecided: 5%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Ronald Reagan: 46%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 44%
Undecided: 10%


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 46%
Ronald Reagan: 42%

Robert F. Kennedy: 45%
Nelson Rockefeller: 42%


Hubert Humphrey: 47%
Ronald Reagan: 43%

Hubert Humphrey: 46%
Nelson Rockefeller: 43%


George Wallace: 44%
Ronald Reagan: 44%

George Wallace: 44%
Nelson Rockefeller: 43%


April 4, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Humphrey and Rockefeller come in first in Wisconsin ★★★


Wisconsin Democratic Primary
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 52.0%
Robert F. Kennedy: 40.3%
George Wallace: 7.5%

A state in Mid-West where the electorate consists a lot of blue collar workers and unions are strong is just the perfect fit for Senator Humphrey, who wins with a clear majority in Wisconsin.


Wisconsin Republican Primary
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 55.2%
Ronald Reagan: 43.6%
Spiro Agnew: 1.0%

As several unions endorsed Nelson Rockefeller, a lot of blue collar workers voted for the New York governor. The Gipper hoped for a close race due to strong turnout in rural areas, but countryside turnout was below expectations due to harsh weather. A clear and important win for Team Rockefeller.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Well, there goes my prediction of Agnew coming from the center to become the nominee, and then proceed to get his scandal revealed in the general election and absolutely collapse
This is awesome, keep it up!

[President Johnson]

Well, there goes my prediction of Agnew coming from the center to become the nominee, and then proceed to get his scandal revealed in the general election and absolutely collapse
This is awesome, keep it up!

Thanks! I don't want to tell too much in advance, but this isn't Agnew's last appearance

[President Johnson]

April 18, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Kennedy and Rockefeller sweep to landslide victories in New York ★★★



The nation's second largest state in terms of population hold its primary this April 18. Two major candidates on both sides are from New York (though RFK is originally from Massachusetts). No surprise at all is their performance in the Empire State:

New York Democratic Primary
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 72.5%
Hubert Humphrey: 24.2%
George Wallace: 3.1%


New York Republican Primary
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 77.8%
Ronald Reagan: 21.3%

Both RFK and Rocky win overwhelmingly, capturing all delegates at stake in New York.


April 26, 1972: George Wallace says he'll "fight to the end" and refuses to rule out third-party presidential bid



Former Governor George Wallace seemingly wants to continue fighting for his cause

"I have to disappoint you, Ladies and Gentlemen", responded former Alabama governor George Wallace with a smile to a reporter, when asked whether he would drop out of the race soon. "My campaign has given voice to millions of people across this nation. I won't let them down and just turn over the entire party to Mr. Kennedy and his buddies", he added, "I will fight this through to the end. I have always been a fighter." When the reporter pointed out that his chances to capture the nomination are "slim at best", the former governor responded: "if I don't win, it will be the will of most Democratic voters, despite millions endorsed my campaign. Even though my friends at the press elite don't like it and continue to write against me."

Another journalist wanted to know whether he rules out a third party candidacy since former Governor Lester Maddox of Georgia openly floated the idea. "At the moment, my focus is on the Democratic primary voters", Mr. Wallace answered. Reporter: "That's not a No, right?" "You're going to write what you want anyway, my friend", the former governor replied with a smile.

So, a Dixiecrat general election challenge is not completely off the table. Journalists wrote that the nomination of Nelson Rockefeller would increase chances for a Dixiecrat ticket in November.


April 30, 1972: A ton of new polls! Released by Gallup

Late April 1972 polling continues to find Democrats in a strong position. The president's approval rating is robust over 50%. Political observers cite the lack of foreign crises, negotiations with the Soviets and an economic recovery, although moving on slowly, as the main reasons. Vice President Kennedy also enjoys momentum after his recent New York victory and more appearances on television. He also polls ahead of Humphrey and Wallace for the general election.

For the first time in months, Nelson Rockefeller surpassed Ronald Reagan in the national Republican nomination polls again.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 39%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 40%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 32%
Former Governor George Wallace: 19%
Undecided: 9%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 48%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 44%
Undecided: 8%


1972 congressional elections – generic ballot

For which candidate would you vote in the congressional elections?

Democrat: 48%
Republican: 42%


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 47%
Ronald Reagan: 41%

Robert F. Kennedy: 46%
Nelson Rockefeller: 42%


Hubert Humphrey: 45%
Ronald Reagan: 41%

Hubert Humphrey: 45%
Nelson Rockefeller: 42%


George Wallace: 45%
Ronald Reagan: 44%

George Wallace: 44%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45%


May 2, 1972: FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover is dead



FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover (1895 – 1972)

For a never ending 48 years J. Edgar Hoover headed the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). He was admired and feared by many Americans. His secret files about private matters of several politicians are legendary, yet many politicians were afraid of the director. This May 2, 1972, news broke that he passed away at the age of 77.

President Johnson, who was personally close to Hoover, praised his record and spoke of a "tragic loss" at the White House. The president further stated he intends to nominate a successor within a few days and send the nomination to the senate for confirmation. His statement de facto eliminates Deputy Director Clyde Tolson to be the new FBI head. Tolson was very close to Hoover, and the two unmarried men even shared a home together, raising to rumors of homosexuality.

White House insiders spread claims LBJ intends to name Attorney General Ramsey Clark as new director. However, a Clark nomination was officially debunked for now.


May 2, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Indiana primary voters give Humphrey and Reagan the edge ★★★

Indiana Democratic Primary
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy: 41.6%
George Wallace: 11.8%

Hubert Humphrey is back! The senator from Minnesota continues to perform well with his Mid-Western base and edges out RFK in Indiana. As some campaign staffers told the press in backroom conversations, the Kennedy team gets increasingly agonized over Humphrey and want him to drop out to focus on a general election strategy. "The vice president will capture the nomination and it is time for Senator Humphrey to leave the race", an aide said. However, RFK himself denounced the comment the next day, saying the primary season is "invigorating for our democracy."

The state of the Democratic race as of May 2, 1972 looks like this:

Robert F. Kennedy: ~ 31% of delegates
Hubert Humphrey: ~ 24% of delegates
George Wallace: ~ 16% of delegates

(delegates won so far out of all delegates; majority needed)


Indiana Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 54.9%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45.0%

Indiana has always been one of the more conservative states in the Mid-West and therefore Ronald Reagan comes in first with almost 55% of the vote despite a last-minute effort by the Rockefeller campaign to make this a close one.

After the Indiana primary, the delegate count is now exactly tied between Reagan and Rockefeller. The New York governor briefly took the lead following his homestate win after he trailed badly on Super Tuesday. The Republican race, truely a dead heat, now looks as follows:

Nelson Rockefeller: ~ 35% of delegates
Ronald Reagan: ~ 35% of delegates
Spiro Agnew: ~ 3% of delegates

(delegates won so far out of all delegates; majority needed)


BREAKING: May 4, 1972 – ROCKEFELLER and REAGAN will DEBATE on TV!

BREAKING NEWS FROM CBS: The television age doesn’t stop at presidential politics! The Rockefeller and Reagan campaigns confirmed to CBS News that their candidates agreed to debate each other live on the air. Sponsored by the League of Women voters, the debate will be the first live televised contest for a primary. It will consist questions about all political topics. Neither candidate will know the questions in advance.

As the Republican primaries developed into a dead heat between the Rockefeller and Reagan camp, the debate is expected to take place on Wednesday, May 10, the week before Nebraska and Oregon will hold their elections.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Kennedy and Senator Humphrey also agreed to debate, but George Wallace declined. After Wallace declined, RFK also took himself out, what Humphrey criticized. He urged both to debate, and Wallace later said he would reconsider.

The Republican debate makes it likely that there will be at least one debate between the Democratic and Republican nominee in the fall. Stay tuned!

[President Johnson]

May 10, 1972

★★★ THE GREAT REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Rockefeller vs. Reagan ★★★

HOWARD K. SMITH: Alright, we have to leave it there and switch topics. I want to come to foreign policy. The Vietnam War has formally ended, yet there are reports, Hanoi might break the peace accords of Paris. Possibly within the first weeks and months of your administration. How would deal with such a crisis as president? Governor Rockefeller, you begin. GOVERNOR ROCKEFELLER: While I believe there are serious flaws in the Paris treaty, I don’t intend to leave it. If communists violate the accords and diplomacy fails, I will order a military response. Make no mistake about it. I won’t allow Ho’s successors to humiliate the United States at the world stage. GOVERNOR REAGAN: We have already been humiliated, Governor Rockefeller. By the Johnson government, which begged in Moscow and Beijing for assistance to settle the Vietnam issue for us. Mr. Johnson and his administration, including your friend Dr. Kissinger, has sold out American values and weakened our position because they allowed Moscow greater influence. Like Mr. Rockefeller, I wouldn’t break the Paris Peace Accords, but would respond with relentless force if the communists seek to challenge us again. That’s for sure. And I won’t allow them to take over an additional inch from free nations. HOWARD K. SMITH: The Johnson Administration has been engaged in various negotiations with the Soviets about a weapons reduction. Just a few days ago, Richard Nixon called for a continuation of these talks after the elections. What would each of you do? Governor Rockefeller? GOVERNOR ROCKEFELLER: I fully support Richard Nixon’s statement. I will continue to be engaged in various talks to promote peace across the globe. This will be my first priority as president. However, I won’t pay any price Moscow wants us to pay. I offer them fair talks. Not more and not less. I can promise, though, that I won’t do anything that weakens our defense. GOVERNOR REAGAN: First, I will let the Kremlin know that a new president has been elected who won’t allow them to spread communism, lawlessness and tyranny over the world. While I would open for discussions with them, I don’t believe in the theory of equal partners, when there can be no balance of power, when one of these powers is imposing its system of oppression and tyranny upon several other nations in Europe, Asia and Africa. HOWARD K. SMITH: Thank you both. We will be back after a short break. Stay with us.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Go Reagan !!!

[President Johnson]

Civil and individual rights



HOWARD K. SMITH: And we are back at the Republican debate for the nomination 1972. The subject of abortion has become a topic of great public awareness. What’s your take on that? Various states have implemented an abortion ban or intend to do so, what could end up before the Supreme Court. If given the opportunity, what kind of judges would you nominate?

GOVERNOR REAGAN: I fully support the right to life and don’t believe abortions should be permitted. I would a favor a national ban, though a judge has to be selected by several criteria and not by the question on his or her stance on a single issue.

GOVERNOR ROCKEFELLER: I disagree. I don’t believe the government should interfere in such private matters of people. The government has no business to do this. I don’t like abortions, but I the politicians have to right to completely restrict it. There should be ban for late-term abortions. I believe 20 weeks are appropriate. That’s what we’ve done in New York. However, I would like to point out that Governor Reagan signed an abortion bill in 1967 shortly after taking office, that permits abortions.

GOVERNOR REAGAN: That is correct. And I sincerely regret signing this bill. But let us not distract from the difference between Governor Rockefeller and myself on this topic.

GOVERNOR ROCKEFELLER: It is important though when it comes leadership qualities. You said, you were inexperienced when the bill came to your desk. Sir, I just like remind you that we are running for the biggest job in the world. You have to be prepared from Day 1 after you come in. There is no room for error. I believe that I can provide that kind of leadership with my broad experience in government and business.

[…]

Individual topics and closing statements

HOWARD K. SMITH: Now, looking at the nomination battle, it is obvious that there is a great division within your party. Both of you are receiving an almost equal level of support. Doesn’t this underline the necessity that the ultimate nominee choses the other one as his running mate?

GOVERNOR ROCKEFELLER: [Laughs] I have always said that I don’t want to be vice president of anything. I also don’t believe in talking about this in advance. It will be up the nominee to determine is question upon his selection by the delegates. If I win the nomination, I will carefully look at several talented politicians for the second spot. That is likely to include Governor Reagan, though there is no automatism.

GOVERNOR REAGAN: I strongly agree with Governor Rockefeller’s remarks. The only thing I want to add is that he or she must be prepared to take over if necessary and work well together with the president. Whether Governor Rockefeller is considered for the vice president's office has to be seen if I get the nomination.

HOWARD K. SMITH: Thank you. Let’s come to the closing statements. Governor Reagan, you begin. Then Governor Rockefeller.

GOVERNOR REAGAN: Ladies and Gentlemen: Over the past few years, we have seen a dramatic increase in the federal government’s size, taxes that go through the roof, a weakened national defense and a declining U.S. stance in the world. Today, I came before you to offer a different path that will allow us to regain true national greatness. By getting government out of your lives and limit it to these functions the founding fathers intended to. Despite his good intentions, I believe the proposals by Governor Rockefeller will not reverse this course that is so necessary in order to prosper again and stand tall at the world stage. I have specific plans for America to be that shining city upon a hill again. Together, let’s move forward and work for this America. Thank you very much, god bless you and god bless America.

GOVERNOR ROCKEFELLER: My fellow Americans and dear Republicans: The next election will determine who will be the president leading us into the third century of our great American experience. I want this future to be one of prosperity, peace and freedom. I believe that I can provide this kind of leadership we need to achieve these goals, by finding pragmatic solutions that leaves nobody behind. Government ought to be servant of the people. To promote economic growth, provide safe homes and streets, protecting individual rights, and being engaged in the world through spreading democracy and our values. Thank you for your interest. God bless you and god bless and America.


HOWARD K. SMITH: That was our debate for the Republican nomination battle. I hope we could bring you the candidates a bit closer and make it easier for you to make decision at the ballot boy, if you haven’t already. Thank you for your interest in our program and good night.


May 12, 1972

Polling Special: Post-debate Gallup-Polls

Gallup took a few post-debate polls, to interview Republican voters upon the two governors performances.


Republican presidential nomination

Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 49%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 46%
Undecided: 5%


Questions

Question: Who you think won the debate over all?
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 42%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 40%
Undecided or tie: 18%


Question: Who won the argument abou the economy and taxes?
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 45%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 38%
Undecided or tie: 17%


Question: Who do you think won the argument over healthcare?
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 35%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 35%
Undecided or tie: 30%


Question: Who you think won the debate over foreign policy?
Governor Ronald Reagan: 50%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 42%
Undecided or tie: 8%


Question: Who do you think won the argument over individual rights?
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 47%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 40%
Undecided or tie: 13%


Question: Who do you think brings more experience to table and has the better administrative skills?
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 59%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 33%
Undecided or tie: 8%


Question: Who did you find more authentic and likeable?
Governor Ronald Reagan: 51%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 40%
Undecided or tie: 9%


Question: Who you think is better able to win the general election?
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 45%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 40%
Undecided or tie: 14%


Question to Rockefeller supports only: Do you think Nelson Rockefeller should offer Ronald Reagan the vice presidential nomination if nominated?
Yes: 43%
No: 40%
Unsure: 17%


Question to Reagan supports only: Do you think Ronald Reagan should offer Nelson Rockefeller the vice presidential nomination if nominated?
Yes: 40%
No: 35%
Unsure: 25%


Question to Rockefeller supports only: Would you support Ronald Reagan if he is nominated?
Yes, definitely: 32%
Lean yes: 28%
Lean no: 24%
Definitely not: 16%


Question to Reagan supports only: Would you support Nelson Rockefeller if he is nominated?
Yes, definitely: 29%
Lean yes: 34%
Lean no: 25%
Definitely not: 12%

[President Johnson]

May 16, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Humphrey and Reagan secure victories in Nebraska and Oregon, Rocky wins West Virginia ★★★

May 16, 1972 saw three smaller states holding their primaries.


Democratic contests

Nebraska
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 55.3%
Robert F. Kennedy: 38.5%
George Wallace: 6.1%

Oregon
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 48.1%
Robert F. Kennedy: 44.6%
George Wallace: 7.0%

West Virginia
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 53.7%
Robert F. Kennedy: 23.4%
George Wallace: 22.8%

Another three important wins for Hubert Humphrey. Had he lost both of these states, it would have been almost impossible to stop RFK anymore, but as he won, the RFK camp is still not over the top. Especially the vice president's performance in West Virginia was disappointing for his team, though RFK hopes to lock up the nomination after the primaries next week.


Republican contests

Nebraska
✓ Ronald Reagan: 57.3%
Nelson Rockefeller: 42.5%

Oregon
✓ Ronald Reagan: 52.8%
Nelson Rockefeller: 47.0%

West Virginia
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 66.8%
Ronald Reagan: 32.6%

Reagan's wins in Nebraska and Oregon came not a surprise, though he underperformed most polls. The results give him a narrow edge over Nelson Rockefeller, who handily won in West Virginia, in the total delegate count again, but he's still not near the nomination.


May 19, 1972: Senate confirms President Johnson's nomination of Mark Felt to be FBI Director



Mark Felt, the new FBI Director

Already on May 4, President Lyndon B. Johnson nominated FBI Associate Director Mark Felt to be the next director after long-time incumbent J. Edgar Hoover passed away earlier this month. Felt has been named Associate Director in 1971 by the president and now won his trust to lead the bureau for the next years. On May 19, 1972, the senate confirmed the nomination with 91 to 8 votes in favor. The nomination was also supported by Vice President Kennedy and Senator Humphrey.


May 23, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: North Atlantic primaries: Kennedy close to nomination; Rockefeller gains in light of big triumphs ★★★

Five more states voted today as the primary season nears its decisive phase.


Democratic contests

Connecticut
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 57.5%
Hubert Humphrey: 40.4%
George Wallace: 2.1%

Delaware
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 50.3%
Hubert Humphrey: 40.3%
George Wallace: 9.0%

Maryland
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 44.5%
Hubert Humphrey: 35.2%
George Wallace: 20.1%

Pennsylvania
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 51.9%
Robert F. Kennedy: 44.7%
George Wallace: 3.1%

Rhode Island
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 61.1%
Hubert Humphrey: 38.9%
George Wallace: not on ballot

Despite Hubert Humphrey won the biggest prize of the day, Pennsylvania, Robert Kennedy managed to carry all other states on this May 23. Including his uncommitted delegates, he is now the only candidate who has still a direct path to win at least 50% of the delegate count. Although only 4% of the delegate count separate him from Humphrey, the senator from Minnesota has almost no path left to a direct convention majority. In addition, Vice President Kennedy is also expected to win in California and New Jersey, the only two remaining large states.

The state of the Democratic race:

Robert F. Kennedy: ~ 35% of delegates
Hubert Humphrey: ~ 31% of delegates
George Wallace: ~ 16% of delegates

(delegates won so far out of all delegates; majority needed)


Republican contests

Connecticut
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 75.8%
Ronald Reagan: 23.9%

Delaware
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 53.9%
Ronald Reagan: 45.8%

Maryland
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 50.8%
Ronald Reagan: 40.1%
Spiro Agnew: 8.8%

Pennsylvania
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 58.0%
Ronald Reagan: 41.7%

Rhode Island
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 80.7%
Ronald Reagan: 19.0%

The North Atlantic States are good fit for Nelson Rockefeller, where he secures easy victories over Ronald Reagan, giving him a sizeable lead in the total delegate count again. However, the battle is still not won. Especially looking ahead: California, the nation's largest state, still didn't vote. The Gipper is expected to win his homestate, what could still - together with Washington state and smaller Mountain states - give him the nomination. However, Rockefeller polls close in Washington and is also expected to take New Jersey. Political observers now write, the chances for a brokered Republican Convention increased dramatically.



Governor Nelson Rockefeller and his wife Happy celebrate upon winning all five primaries of the day

The Republican map and delegate count:

Nelson Rockefeller: ~ 44% of delegates
Ronald Reagan: ~ 38% of delegates
Spiro Agnew: ~ 3% of delegates

(delegates won so far out of all delegates; majority needed)


BREAKING: May 24, 1972 – Humphrey drops out and leaves Kennedy as presumptive Democratic nominee



Senator Humphrey, addressing a crowd of supporters, upon his announcement to suspend his campaign. He endorsed Vice President Kennedy for the general election

Rumors already spread last night after Hubert Humphrey immediately returned home to Minnesota. Having lost most of the important primaries that day, he sat together with his senior staff and discussed the situation. He reportedly also phoned with President Johnson at the White House. At 11 a.m. in the morning, Senator Humphrey went before the press and gave the following statement:

SENATOR HUMPHREY: My fellow citizens, my fellow Democrats and members of the press: Today I want to inform you that I decided to drop out of the presidential race. Having evaluated the situation, I came to the conclusion that there is no realistic path left for me to become the Democratic nominee for president. I congratulate Vice President Kennedy on his victories and a spirited campaign. He will be the nominee for president in 1972, and I will do everything I can to help him succeeding Lyndon Johnson in the White House. Now let me also thank the thousands of volunteers who helped me over the last months, the millions of voters who endorsed me and my family in particular. I will remain a senator and continue to represent the people of Minnesota in the best way possible. I will be engaged in any political debate and fight for the causes I believed in for many years. Thank you all very, very much. God bless you.


Barely an hour later, Vice President Robert Kennedy gave remarks upon Humphrey’s exit of the race.



Vice President Bobby Kennedy, although still short of a delegate majority, is now the presumptive Democratic nominee for president

VICE PRESIDENT KENNEDY: Today, I want to thank Senator Hubert Humphrey for his courage. I also want to congratulate him  on running a fine campaign that focused on important issues rather than on personal attacks. Senator Humphrey has served his party, and more importantly his country, well over many years. We ought be thankful for his service and passion. I personally will fight hard to earn the trust and confidence of the voters who endorsed his candidacy.

Being the nominee of the Democratic Party is a great honor and I will do everything I can to earn your support in November. Now let us march forward as a force for progress, peace and liberty. Thank you!


Republican candidates Nelson Rockefeller and Ronald Reagan congratulated RFK on winning the nomination for president and promised “a tough but fair fight over the fall”. The same day, President Johnson reportedly invited Kennedy and Humphrey to the White House to discuss the Democratic strategy for November. He also publically expressed his congratulations to the vice president and said he would support him.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'd support RFK, but would probably also become kind of a swing voter if Rocky is the Republican nominee.

[Cold War Liberal]

I'd support RFK, but would probably also become kind of a swing voter if Rocky is the Republican nominee.

Me too. RFK v. Reagan would be instant RFK for me, but I'd only be lean RFK if Rocky was the Republican nominee.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I’m pretty surprised you gave Rocky a win on Economics but Reagan a win on Foreign Policy , because Reagan biggest support usually came from people who valued economic policy while he lost on foreign policy .



In 1980 the Economic/Buisness Establishment supported Reagan from day 1 while the Foregin Policy establishment was more reluctant to support him

[President Johnson]

I’m pretty surprised you gave Rocky a win on Economics but Reagan a win on Foreign Policy , because Reagan biggest support usually came from people who valued economic policy while he lost on foreign policy .



In 1980 the Economic/Buisness Establishment supported Reagan from day 1 while the Foregin Policy establishment was more reluctant to support him

Keep in mind that this is 1972: The economy is doing a lot better in (real life) 1980 and Rocky's middle-of-the-road approach, not too far from Nixon's, would have been more popular than Reagan's call for a return to the 1920s economic policy (that was still blamed for the Great Depression). On foreign policy, Reagan sounds tougher than Rockefeller in a time when Vietnam was maybe not lost yet, but not won either. The foreign policy establishment would still largely support Rockefeller (he also had foreign policy experience), but that doesn't have to be the opinion of the Republican base (or at least a decent part of it).

[President Johnson]

May 28, 1972: George Wallace leaves Democratic race and raises speculation over third-party campaign, alarming President Johnson over RFK's southern support



George Wallace speaking to supporters and the press upon dropping out of the Democratic race. However, he is not supporting RFK

That former Alabama Governor George Wallace can't win the nomination first hand already became evident several weeks ago, but with Hubert Humphrey's formal exit, there isn't even a chance to play the kingmaker in a deadlocked convention (or at least attempting to do so). Wallace now publically came to this conclusion as well and officially dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination.

"Congratulations to the Kennedy clan, for once more taking over our party from the ordinary man", Wallace noted upon addressing the press and supporters in Montgomery, Alabama. And he added: "Mr. Kennedy and his buddies may have won this fight, but I'll be back soon." When asked what exactly he meant, he declined. Aides to Wallace already indicated that he will attempt to win the governorship of his state again as the 1974 election is an open one (Governor Brewer, who defeated Wallace in the 1970 primary, will be term-limited).



President Johnson is reportedly alarmed of a potential Dixiecrat campaign for president this fall that would likely hurt Vice President Kennedy's chances

Almost immediately after Wallace's drop-out, rumors began to spread that he planned a third-party challenge in the fall election. Especially former Georgia governor Lester Maddox is reportedly pushing for such a campaign. As unconfirmed reports indicated, Maddox himself would run for vice president should Wallace launch a third-party presidential bid. A possible Rockefeller nomination would increase the chance for Dixiecrat ticket, a Washington Post report said. The article further stated, that President Lyndon Johnson is actively working behind the scenes to get southern Democrats behind the Democratic ticket. Governor Brewer and senators Llyod Bentsen (D-TX) and Lawton Chiles (D-FL) are also actively engaged in this effort. Although not confirmed, the president strongly recommended Bobby Kennedy to pick a southern running mate, as did his brother twelve years before. The president is afraid that a Dixiecrat candidacy in November could hand the White House to the Republicans, especially if Ronald Reagan is the nominee (who would, unlike Nelson Rockefeller, dismantle his legacy).


May 30, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Rockefeller takes Washington State over Reagan; RFK unopposed winner ★★★



Washington State Democratic Primary
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 85.8%
Hubert Humphrey: 7.2%
George Wallace: 5.5%

Nothing more to see here at the Democratic side: RFK is now unopposed for the Democratic nomination.


Washington State Republican Primary
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 52.5%
Ronald Reagan: 47.4%

Rocky's first - and probably only - win in the West comes from Washington State. His campaign heavily targeted the state in the closing days of this primary. That's an important victory to expand his delegate lead over the California governor, who is the favorite to win his homestate early next month. In order to win the nomination, Rockefeller must win at least one more state in addition to New Jersey, where he is already expected to win by huge margin.


May 31, 1972: A ton of new polls! Released by Gallup

Despite President Johnson's concerns over a Dixiecrat ticket, RFK's win over Humphrey gave him and the Democrats new momentum at the end of May. LBJ's numbers are also pretty strong for a president in his final year. He obviously benefits from the recovering economy, the detente policies and the lack of a major crisis abroad an riots at home. On the Republican side, Nelson Rockefeller now polls at 51% for his party's nomination, though Ronald Reagan still takes almost half of GOP supporters. Rocky also polls slightly better against Bobby Kennedy. The vice president also leads in a hypothetical three-way match-up with George Wallace.

Gallup this time also polled the favorbility of leading politicans.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 39%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 51%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 46%
Undecided: 3%


1972 congressional elections – generic ballot

For which candidate would you vote in the congressional elections?

Democrat: 48%
Republican: 41%


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 49%
Ronald Reagan: 42%

Robert F. Kennedy: 48%
Nelson Rockefeller: 43%


Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Ronald Reagan: 37%
George Wallace: 13%

Robert F. Kennedy: 42%
Nelson Rockefeller: 39%
George Wallace: 13%


Opinion of leading politicans

President Lyndon B. Johnson
Favorable: 55%
Unfavorable: 40%
No opinion/never heard of: 5%

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy
Favorable: 54%
Unfavorable: 38%
No opinion/never heard of: 8%

Secretary of State Nicholas Katzenbach
Favorable: 61%
Unfavorable: 33%
No opinion/never heard of: 6%

Senator Hubert Humphrey
Favorable: 57%
Unfavorable: 37%
No opinion/never heard of: 7%

Former Governor George Wallace
Favorable: 45%
Unfavorable: 46%
No opinion/never heard of: 9%

Former Governor Lester Maddox
Favorable: 31%
Unfavorable: 40%
No opinion/never heard of: 29%

Governor Nelson Rockefeller
Favorable: 48%
Unfavorable: 43%
No opinion/never heard of: 9%

Governor Ronald Reagan
Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 43%
No opinion/never heard of: 10%

Governor Spiro Agnew
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 37%
No opinion/never heard of: 13%

Former Vice President Richard Nixon
Favorable: 44%
Unfavorable: 51%
No opinion/never heard of: 5%

Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield
Favorable: 37%
Unfavorable: 28%
No opinion/never heard of: 35%

Senate Minority Hugh Scott
Favorable: 33%
Unfavorable: 24%
No opinion/never heard of: 43%

House Speaker Carl Albert
Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable: 27%
No opinion/never heard of: 34%

House Minority Leader Gerald Ford
Favorable: 36%
Unfavorable: 22%
No opinion/never heard of: 42%

[Don Vito Corleone]

>Not having Hubert Humphrey win the Democratic Nomination
You monster!

[President Johnson]

June 2, 1972: HealthCare bill fails in committee



Senator Ted Kennedy was the main force behind the healthcare bill

The so-called Universal Coverage Act, sponsored by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and supported by the Johnson Administration, was voted down in the Committee on Labor and Public Welfare by Republicans and Southern Democrats. Although not surprising, this is a setback for the administration as well as Senator Kennedy.

However, Ted Kennedy already said he would try again this year. His brother, presumptive Democratic nominee Bobby Kennedy, promised to continue work an a healthcare-for-all legislation if elected to the Oval Office in November. According to insiders, President Johnson tries to force another liberal Democrat into the committee to ensure passage.


★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Last primaries show little surprise, RFK locks up nomination ★★★

Democratic contests

On the Democratic side, Vice President Robert Kennedy, who is unopposed in the race now, wins all remaining primaries (California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota) with each over 90% of the vote.

The final Democratic map and delegate count:

✓ Robert F. Kennedy: ~ 53% of delegates
Hubert Humphrey: ~ 31% of delegates
George Wallace: ~ 16% of delegates

Note: The delegate count only includes pledged delegates won. As Hubert Humphrey and George Wallace both released their delegates, RFK is expected to win the nomination with a much higher number (though Wallace's delegation, which consists many conservative members, will likely not vote for Mr. Kennedy anyway).

The Democratic National Convention will take place from July 10 to July 13, 1972 in Madison Square Garden, New York City.



The final primaries put Vice President Bobby Kennedy, here on campaign trail again, over the top in the delegate count: The 1972 Democratic presidential nomination is his


Republican contests

California
✓ Ronald Reagan: 65.0%
Nelson Rockefeller: 34.7%

Montana
✓ Ronald Reagan: 55.5%
Nelson Rockefeller: 44.3%

New Jersey
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 63.0%
Ronald Reagan: 36.8%

New Mexico
✓ Ronald Reagan: 51.4%
Nelson Rockefeller: 48.5%

South Dakota
✓ Ronald Reagan: 53.6%
Nelson Rockefeller: 46.2%


The Republican race:

Nelson Rockefeller: ~ 48% of delegates
Ronald Reagan: ~ 48% of delegates
Spiro Agnew or unpledged: ~ 4% of delegates


★★★ BREAKING: It's official  – REPUBLICAN NOMINATION will go to BROKERED CONVENTION! ROCKEFELLER vs. REAGAN! ★★★

First Republican nomination in history following a 50-state primary season will be decided by a brokered convention, with neither candidate having received the necessary 50% of delegates. Is this Spiro Agnew's hour?

What a Republican primary season! Even the final contests could not bring the long-awaited decision. Both candidates won about the same number of pledged delegates: Rockefeller has a small lead with 1,115 delegates behind him. Reagan won 1,106, each about 48%. The remaining 80 are uncommitted. Most of them were pledged to Spiro Agnew, who dropped out of the race and has not endorsed either of the two remaining contenders. The New York Times reported, that Agnew's released delegates are almost 50/50 divided between The Gipper and Rocky. Rockefeller has also a small lead of 0.7% in the total popular vote.

Until the convention opens in August, both campaigns have time to win over the unpledged delegates. Both campaigns are expected to reorganize their senior staff now in order to clinch the decisive delegates. Nevada Governor Paul Laxalt is reported to be Reagan's "right-handed man", while George Romney is rumored to coordinate the Rockefeller campaign's efforts. However, if neither candidate wins a majority on the first ballot, all delegates are released and can vote for whoever they want. That could be the time of Spiro Agnew! Although the Maryland governor strongly denied in an interview, he could then change his mind and attempt to win the nomination by presenting himself as an alternative acceptable to both party wings. But even if Agnew is not returning to the race, he will play an important role in the nominating process anyway. Political observers expect that Rockefeller and Reagan will reach out him and offer him a role in their campaign and administration. The Washington Post listed him as the most likely Republican vice presidential nominee. The Post also wrote, Agnew is about to meet with Senator Barry Goldwater, a Reagan backer, as well as Richard Nixon in the days to come (Nixon strongly supports Rockefeller).

The Republican National Convention will take place from August 21 to August 23, 1972 in Miami Beach, Florida.


June 24, 1972: George Wallace rules out third-party White House bid; speculation over Dixiecrat ticket remain



George Wallace on television

In a television interview, George Wallace ruled out running for president on a third-party ticket. "I do not intend to run for president on a third-party platform", he said, "but won't endorse and vote for Mr. Kennedy. One Kennedy in a century is enough".

However, some doubts remain, as several Southern Democrats from the Old Guard are very unhappy with Bobby Kennedy's nomination. But Wallace's elimination from the contest is at least somewhat good news for the Kennedy campaign since Governor Wallace is the most famous and most popular Dixiecrat in the nation.



June 30, 1972: New polls are out! Released by Gallup

The ongoing nomination battle on the Republican side obviously benefits Democrats and the Kennedy campaign. RFK has now solid lead over both Republican candidates as well as Spiro Agnew (who was polled again, given the possibility of his nomination). Agnew also slightly performs better against Kennedy in the survey, possibly because he is not actively involved in the nomination battle anymore.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 41%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 49%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 48%
Undecided: 3%


1972 congressional elections – generic ballot

For which candidate would you vote in the congressional elections?

Democrat: 49%
Republican: 42%


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 50%
Ronald Reagan: 41%

Robert F. Kennedy: 51%
Nelson Rockefeller: 41%

Robert F. Kennedy: 49%
Spiro Agnew: 42%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Will Reagan choose a vp before the convention again



I would say these would be good candidates :

Howard Baker
George Romney
George HW Bush

[President Johnson]

Will Reagan choose a vp before the convention again



I would say these would be good candidates :

Howard Baker
George Romney
George HW Bush

Well, Romney had to be picked after the nomination since he's actively engaged in the Rockefeller campaign. Poppy would be a two-term congressman who twice lost the Texas Senate race (1964 and 1970). With a Democrat in the White House, he wouldn't have been anything else except maybe RNC Chair. Nixon saved his career by naming him UN Ambassador after his second defeat in 1971. Howard Baker, however, seems to be decent choice for Reagan. Even Schweiker, though that may be a little early for him.

I'll do a list of potential running mates (with pros and cons) of both parties soon. Similar to Parrotguy's 2016 TL.

[President Johnson]

BONUS: The Democratic vice presidential selection



As various reports confirmed, the Kennedy campaign considers, ahead of the Democratic National Convention, the following individuals for the vice presidential nomination.


Albert Brewer



Age: 43
Homestate: Alabama
Experience: Governor of Alabama since 1968, Lieutenant Governor 1967–1968, Speaker of the Alabama House of Representatives 1962–1966, Alabama State Representative 1954–1966
Why he is considered: A southerner with liberal stances, Governor Brewer seems a good geographical balance to Bobby Kennedy. Brewer's selection would certainly boost Kennedy's chances in the south. Whether that is enough to win states, is hard to predict this early, although he is popular in his homestate for passing reforms. Especially the African American community staunchly backs Brewer's pro-civil-rights policies. It is notable, though, that he beat Dixiecrat icon George Wallace in the 1970 gubernatorial primary and handily won a full term months later. Brewer's experience in state politics (he also served as lieutenant governor, state representative and became the youngest speaker of the state house) could be an asset for RFK's plans, to expand the welfare state in dealing with the states. Like Bobby Kennedy at 46, the 43 year old governor would stand for a new generation of leaders. The only thing he lacks so far is experience in foreign policy.


Terry Sanford



Age: 54
Homestate: North Carolina
Experience: President of the Duke University since 1969, Governor of North Carolina 1961–1965, North Carolina State Senator 1953–1955
Why he is considered: Terry Sanford was already rumored to be a running mate for John F. Kennedy's 1964 reelection campaign, though other sources claim he intended to keep then-vice president Lyndon Johnson on the ticket. Of course, that never went anywhere, as JFK was assassinated in 1963. As former governor from a state of the Upper South who is liberal-to-moderate, he's also a fair balance to RFK when it comes to experience and geography. However, like Albert Brewer, he lacks foreign policy experience and is out of politics for quite a while. Nevertheless, he is still respected among Democrats and also from an important battleground state.


George McGovern



Age: 50
Homestate: South Dakota
Experience: U.S. Senator from South Dakota since 1963, U.S. Representative 1957–1961
Why he is considered: A liberal icon from the Great Plains, McGovern ran for president this year, but dropped out early in the primaries. Nevertheless, he has still a lot of fans among the Democratic base. Especially foreign policy doves supported him for several years right now. RFK originally appealed to this group as well in his 1968 campaign, but his alliance with President Johnson cost him support among anti-war activists. However, in a time when the U.S. involvement in Vietnam is largely over and Bobby Kennedy seems to have more trouble winning support in the South, McGovern may not be the ideal running mate despite his credentials in domestic policy as a staunch Great Society supporter.


James E. "Jimmy" Carter



Age: 47
Homestate: Georgia
Experience: Governor of Georgia since 1971, Georgia State Senator 1963–1967
Why he is considered: Jimmy Carter falls into a similar category like Albert Brewer. Out of younger generation, he's a southern governor with mainly liberal stances. He made national news by declaring "the times of segregation are once and for all over" upon taking office as governor. That angered many social conservatives of the Old Southern Guard such as his predecessor and current lieutenant governor Lester Maddox. Although he's just one and a half years into his term, Carter already modernized the Georgia state government and passed progressive reforms. He would also be an asset in the South for RFK and his state may be critical in November. Governor Carter is also known as a man of high integrity and described as a likeable person. What speaks against him is that his gubernatorial experience is relatively short and that he has no experience in foreign affairs.


Stuart Symington



Age: 71
Homestate: Missouri
Experience: U.S. Senator from Missouri since 1953, U.S. Secretary of the Air Force 1947–1950
Why he is considered: Stuart Symington is probably the biggest surprise on RFK's short list for vice president. A senator from Missouri for almost twenty years, he ran for Democratic presidential nomination against JFK in 1960 and lost. Back then, JFK also considered him a potential running mate before selecting LBJ. Symington's advanced age and his long time experience in the senate may not just appeal to elder voters, he would also bring a lot of experience to the table. His good connections at Capitol Hill may ease RFK to get his agenda through congress. In addition, he has credentials in foreign and defense policy. Another pro is that the senator is from a battleground state. However, as a long-time lawmaker with a certain stance and earlier presidential ambitions, he likely won't trade a safe senate mandate in return for an irrelevant role as vice president. If chosen and elected, Symington would certainly demand a wider range of responsibilities in foreign and domestic policy, an important role in the decision-making process and a say in making government appointments.


Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson



Age: 60
Homestate: Washington (state)
Experience: U.S. Senator from Washington since 1953, U.S. Representative 1941–1953
Why he is considered: Like Senator Symington, Henry M. Jackson, better known as Scoop Jackson, has a very long experience in congress and could help Bobby Kennedy with the passage of his ambitious domestic agenda. His selection would also improve RFK's standing in the West. California, Oregon and Washington state were relatively close in 1968 and could decide the 1972 election and, for that reason, are top Democratic targets this cycle as well. However, a Jackson candidacy for vice president would alienate foreign policy doves, whose support for RFK has already been weakened. Despite being an outspoken liberal in domestic policy, Senator Jackson is a foreign policy hawk and would certainly demand a role in foreign and military policy. He's also not known as a staunch Kennedy supporter.


Carl Albert



Age: 64
Homestate: Oklahoma
Experience: Speaker of the House of Representatives since 1971, House Majority Leader 1962–1971, House Majority Whip 1955–1962, U.S. Representative since 1947
Why he is considered: Carl Albert wouldn't be the first House Speaker to run for vice president. A long career in the House and various leadership positions, he would be an asset for RFK in passing legislation with his good connections in congress and his knowledge of the legislative process. Another pro for Speaker Albert is the fact that he comes from a swing state (Oklahoma). Although he is supported by southern members of the Democratic caucus as well, it is questionable whether he would actually bring in many additional votes from the South. It is also unclear, whether he is actually interested in the vice presidency as his speakership likely gives him more influence over the Democratic policy agenda. Polls indicate that Democrats remain in the majority after the election, even if a Republican wins the White House. The vice presidential nomination may therefore not be a step forward for Mr. Albert.


Orville Freeman



Age: 54
Homestate: Minnesota
Experience: U.S. Secretary of Agriculture since 1961, Governor of Minnesota 1955–1961
Why he is considered: Despite being only 54 years old, Secretary Freeman has a long experience in the federal government after over ten years as head of the Agriculture Department. He has been a loyal cabinet member for both JFK and LBJ and is regarded as a person of integrity. In addition to his service in Washington, he has also six years of experience in the governor's chair. Although he is widely seen as qualified to take over the vice presidency, he has very limited experience in foreign affairs and is largely unknown to the American public. Freeman's homestate of Minnesota is also a Democratic stronghold and therefore not of a real asset in the general election. Maybe Freeman's lasting loyalty and his executive skills should be awarded by giving him a more important cabinet post after election, such as the Treasury Department.


The following individuals were mentioned as potential candidates but publically denied interest: Senator and former Vice President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN), Senator and Majority Leader Mike Mansfield (D-MT), Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX), former Governor John Connally (D-TX), Governor Preston Smith (D-TX), Senator Lawton Chiles (D-FL), Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME) and Supreme Court Judge and former Governor Pat Brown (D-CA)