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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Keyboard Jacobinism, Apocrypha)
  The liberal Republic
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President Johnson
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« Reply #525 on: March 12, 2019, 03:44:25 pm »

ASKEW/GLENN ‘80

This would have been a pretty strong ticket regardless of this TL.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #526 on: March 16, 2019, 06:32:28 am »

October 3, 1979: Jere Beasley enters race for Democratic presidential nomination

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Governor Jere Beasley of Alabama has announced his presidential bid

If there was an Alabamian in the race, it was expected to be Albert Brewer. Since the senator declined, indications pointed into the direction of Governor Jere Beasley running. In early October, Beasley has formally entered the race. He is a centrist, some even argue conservative, Democrat who was lieutenant governor under Brewer from 1971 to 1975, before winning the governorship himself in 1974. He was easily reelected in 1978. Political observers expect Beasley’s impact on the race very limited, without a clear chance to become the nominee.


October 10, 1979: Ford Administration sets up Solar Research program as energy prices rise

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President Gerald Ford announcing the plan to invest large sums into solar energy research at a press conference

As energy prices continue to rise, in part due to the turmoil in Iran, the Ford Administration has undertaken various attempts to combat inflation in the energy sector. Secretary of Energy John B. Anderson has approved more oil drilling and even begun looking for more imports from South America. In addition, recently developed solar energy has attracted the president’s attention. Ultimately, President Gerald Ford approved over 1.2 billion dollars in research funds for solar energy and set up a new program, multiplying the sum that has been spent before. The new program, which consists actors of the private sector, will be headed by Vice President William Scranton.

Conservatives expressed doubts about the technology and think it’s a waste of money, but the administration has rejected criticism.


October 23, 1979: Iranian Shah seeks cancer treatment in US, President Ford to decide soon

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The Shah of Iran has requested cancer treatment in the US. Now it is incumbent to President Ford to decide.

No end in sight with regard to the crisis in Iran: The Shah, who fled Teheran in January, has officially requested the American government to seek cancer treatment in the United States. The Shah currently stays in Mexico, while the new Iranian regime demands to extradite him and threatened with a harsh response, should the Ford Administration grant him treatment in New York. The final decision would soon be made by President Gerald Ford. White House interns told the press, that National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger warned the president approval of the request would be considered an act of hostility by Iran.

According to sources within the State Department, Secretary Richard Nixon has ordered to review current security standards for diplomatic offices in Iran, which became subject to severe street protests.


October 25, 1979: Frank Church not running, seeks reelection to senate

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He's out: Senator Frank Church (D-ID) isn't running for president and focusses on his senate reelection bid

He ran in 1976 with modest success in the primaries, now Senator Frank Church (D-ID) ruled out another bid for the White House. In an interview with a local radio station in Boise, Idaho, he declared his candidacy a fourth term in the senate, this ruling out another presidential run. The senator emphasized the Democrats to nominate a fairly liberal candidate who can unite the party and the country. He didn’t endorse anyone, but spoke favorably about Jerry Brown and Reubin Askew.


What will Lloyd Bentsen do?

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Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) might soon enter the presidential race

Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) has long been considered a frontrunner for the nomination, especially since RFK declined to run and he (Bentsen) performed way better than expected in 1976. However, he has not yet declared a run. “It’s definitely on the table and I’ll be making a decision by the end of the year”, the Texas senator said in a September interview. In the latest survey, he has a lost the lead among Democratic primary voters to Reubin Askew, but is still within the margin of error.


October 31, 1979: New Gallup polls, including for 1980

President Ford job approval
Approve: 58% ▼
Disapprove: 35% ▲


1980 Republican Party presidential nomination

President Gerald Ford: 57% ▲
Former Governor Ronald Reagan: 31% ▼
Someone else/undecided: 12%



1980 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Governor Reubin Askew: 23% ▲
Senator Lloyd Bentsen: 21% ▼
Governor Jerry Brown: 11% ▲
Senator Walter Mondale: 8% ▲
Senator John Glenn: 7% ▲
Governor Jere Beasley: 3% ▲
Senator Birch Bayh: 2% ▬
Senator Alan Cranston: 2% ▼
Senator Wendell Ford: 2% ▼
Someone else/undecided: 21%
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President Johnson
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« Reply #527 on: March 19, 2019, 01:54:55 pm »

November 4, 1979

BREAKING: Iranian Protesters break into US Embassy, take 52 hostage

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Following President Gerald Ford’s decision to allow the Iranian Shah cancer treatment in New York City, protesters in Tehran, encouraged by the Mullah regime, broke into the US Embassy and took 52 diplomats and their employees hostage. At the White House, President Gerald Ford immediately summoned his closest advisors: Vice President William Scranton, Secretaries Richard Nixon and Dan Evans as well as National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger. All voices surrounding the president agreed to put in place sanctions against the regime. The next day, President Ford signed an Executive Order, barring oil imports from Iran; in addition over 8 billion dollars of Iranian assets in the United States were frozen by the Treasury Department under Raymond Shafer. The White House furthermore insisted that all options are on the table, including the use of force.

Official sources remained largely silent in the following das other than condemning the regime in Tehran and Iranian students, but insiders from within the administration report that the State Department is engaged in negotiations. What troubles these efforts is the resignation of the Iranian government on November 6, following complains over “an invasion of radicals into the institutions.”

On November 15, a number of Democratic lawmakers, including presidential candidate Walter Mondale, expressed reservations about President Ford’s decision to grant the Shah U.S. entry. Governor Jerry Brown, another presidential contender, urged the administration to change course and expel the Shah right after another country grants him asylum. The White House rejected these calls, but President Ford is reportedly upset behind the scenes over the CIA’s underestimation of the threat his decision posed.


Ronald Reagan emphasizes use of force against Iran

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Ronald Reagan, still flirting with a presidential bid, emphasizes a tough response to Iran

Former California Governor Ronald Reagan, who is still thinking about a presidential run, publically emphasized the use of military force against Iran during a November 16 interview. When asked what he would do as president, he answered: “I would strong consider to set a deadline for the release of all our hostages. If the responsible, who are clearly controlled by this murderous regime, chose to ignore it, I would definitely authorize the use of force in order to send a clear signal. When cannot tolerate this kind of tyranny against our own citizens, who are entirely innocent. I applaud President Ford for issuing sanctions and pray he will do the right thing, but he needs to go a step further if necessary.” Reagan insisted he was only expressing his opinion and refused to announce any plans to run for president.

The White House did not comment Reagan’s remarks, though a spokesman for Secretary Nixon said the former governor was not speaking for the administration.


November 23, 1979: Lloyd Bentsen announces bid for president

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Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) has finally thrown is hat into the ring

He finally made his decision: Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas declared his candidacy for president. Bentsen gained national profile when he ran in the 1976 primaries and did well, finishing a strong third behind Edmund Muskie and George McGovern. A moderate to liberal Democrat, the Texas senator is considered not just a favorite for the nomination of his party, he is also someone who is perceived to have a real chance to win nationwide. If elected, he would be the second consecutive Democratic president from the state of Texas after Lyndon B. Johnson. Bentsen also starts off with a clear fundraising and organization advantage over most of his rivals.


November 30, 1979: New Gallup polls, including for 1980

President Ford job approval
Approve: 61% ▲
Disapprove: 34% ▼


1980 Republican Party presidential nomination

President Gerald Ford: 58% ▲
Former Governor Ronald Reagan: 33% ▲
Someone else/undecided: 9%



1980 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Senator Lloyd Bentsen: 26% ▲
Former Governor Reubin Askew: 21% ▼
Governor Jerry Brown: 14% ▲
Senator John Glenn: 10% ▲
Senator Walter Mondale: 8% ▬
Governor Jere Beasley: 4% ▲
Senator Wendell Ford: 2% ▬
Someone else/undecided: 15%
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President Johnson
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« Reply #528 on: March 23, 2019, 06:25:30 am »

December 1, 1979: Ronald Reagan declares presidential candidacy – challenges President Ford for Republican nomination

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In a broadcasted video, Ronald Reagan announced his candidacy for president, challenging incumbent President Gerald Ford for the Republican nomination

“Ladies and Gentlemen, my fellow Americans, I am pleased to share with you my decision to seek the Republican nomination for President of the United States”, former California governor Ronald Reagan told his audience in a now released 25-minute video he broadcasted. In his remarks, Reagan reminded people how far America has come in the just over 200 years of its existence. “Yet, we face unprecedented challenges that we have to meet”, he further said, pointing to the turmoil on the world stage and the slowly overheating economy over recent months. He explicitly emphasized his presidential candidacy is not intended to run against something or someone. “It is not for me or anyone the question the patriotism or commitment of Gerald Ford. We know that he is gentle and honest person”, Reagan remarked about the sitting president. Instead, his campaign would intend to offer an alternative to the centrist-oriented administration and Republican Party built by late President Nelson Rockefeller. “The Rockefeller/Ford Administration has delivered on several issues, but leaves challenges open that we have to face with a new approach instead of continuing the old”, he commented. In the end, it was up the Republican voters and he (Reagan) would live with whatever they decide.

The cornerstones of Reagans campaign, as he said in his video, are: An across the board tax reduction of 30%, a massive cut in regulations and social programs and a tougher stance against the USSR. He also calls for spending increases on defense and weapon systems.


Mixed reactions on Reagan candidacy

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Senate Minority Leader Mark Hatfield (R-OR) opposes Reagan's presidential bid and backs Gerald Ford

Ronald Reagan’s announced presidential campaign received mixed reaction from Republicans and the general public. The White House did not publically react, but a spokesman for the Ford campaign expressed confidence that President Gerald Ford would easily win the nomination and the general election: “The voters know where the president stands and they trust him.” Senate Minority Leader Mark Hatfield criticized Reagan for “once again dividing the party”. Hatfield, who supports Ford, told a reporter: “I think this is not particularly helpful and I am disappointed that Governor Reagan puts his personal interest ahead of the party and, even more important, the country. We have a Republican president, and he is doing excellent work.” President Ford also has the large part of the Republican establishment behind his campaign. Surprisingly, Senate Minority Whip John Tower of Texas, a conservative, endorsed the president over Reagan.

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Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) supports Ronald Reagan

Senator and 1964 Republican nominee Barry Goldwater was the highest ranking lawmaker to endorse the Reagan candidacy. Goldwater said he thinks the competition is healthy and would make Ford a better candidate if he beats Reagan in the end. Even more important than GoldwaterÄs helping hands is that Reagan enjoys grassroots support from conservative groups, who always were lukewarm about the Rockefeller/Ford Administrations.

Most political observers give Reagan a chance not higher than 25% to win the nomination. “He will give Gerald Ford a run and may force him adopt some more conservative policy planks into the platform”, the New York Times editorial board wrote.


December 11, 1979: Secretary Nixon rules out ransom to Iran, threatens with war if one hostage is killed

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Secretary of State Richard Nixon threatens Iran with a harsh response

Following a meeting of the National Security Council, Secretary of State Richard Nixon directed harsh words at Iran: First, he publically ruled out the payment any ransom in exchange for the 52 hostage’s release. And second, he threatened with “total destruction” if one hostage was injured or killed. “Nobody on purpose kills one of our citizens without paying a severe price”, he said. Meanwhile, backroom channels through allied nations are going on. Reports indicate that National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger has been assigned to lead the effort.


Insider reporters: President Ford instructed Pentagon the evaluate military options

December 14, 1979: A Washington Post report, citing sources within the Pentagon, reveals that President Gerald Ford has instructed the Pentagon to evaluate military action against Iran to resolve the hostage crisis. Both a maneuver to free the hostages are reportedly under consideration, as is broader operation to target the regime. However, it is unclear how exactly this would look like since not the entire Iranian military has come out in support of the new regime.

The White House declined the story but emphasized “all options are on the table”.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #529 on: March 23, 2019, 07:33:47 pm »
« Edited: March 25, 2019, 02:58:07 pm by LoneStarDem »

Terrific updates! Is George Romney still governor of MI then?

Enjoying the TL

Thanks...

No, Romney retired after two terms from 1963 to 1971. But at that time, there wasn't term limit in Michigan.

Romney was elected MI Governor in 1962 & reelected in 1964 & 1966.

Speaking of Governors: what happened to Connally ? I'm assuming he chose not to seek a 4th 2-year term in 1968 ?

I also have some tidbits on this TL: Brewer (if he had beaten Wallace in the Runoff in 1970), was allowed to seek a 2nd full 4-year term in 1974 & was NOT term limited since AL extended the term of Governor to back-to-back 4 years.

On Rocky: I thought he was buried at the Rockefeller Family Cemetery in Sleepy Hollow, NY St ? Because I noticed that you'd have to be in the military to be buried at Arlington National Cemetery.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #530 on: March 26, 2019, 02:00:25 pm »

Terrific updates! Is George Romney still governor of MI then?

Enjoying the TL

Thanks...

No, Romney retired after two terms from 1963 to 1971. But at that time, there wasn't term limit in Michigan.

Romney was elected MI Governor in 1962 & reelected in 1964 & 1966.

Speaking of Governors: what happened to Connally ? I'm assuming he chose not to seek a 4th 2-year term in 1968 ?

I also have some tidbits on this TL: Brewer (if he had beaten Wallace in the Runoff in 1970), was allowed to seek a 2nd full 4-year term in 1974 & was NOT term limited since AL extended the term of Governor to back-to-back 4 years.

On Rocky: I thought he was buried at the Rockefeller Family Cemetery in Sleepy Hollow, NY St ? Because I noticed that you'd have to be in the military to be buried at Arlington National Cemetery.


Connally in this TL retired as governor in 1969, just as he did IRL. He served as Commerce Secretary in Rocky's first term but stepped down in 1977.


I don't know about the rules in Alabama whether Brewer could have run again 1974, but however, he decided to run for senate instead Wink


As president, there would have been some chance he gets burried in Arlington, especially after dying in office as a popular president.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #531 on: March 26, 2019, 03:11:04 pm »

I hope Clements got a job in the Rockefeller & Ford administrations considering he was the US Deputy Defense Secretary in real life under Nixon & Ford.

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UWS
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« Reply #532 on: April 01, 2019, 12:46:44 am »

Wow! Nixon threatening with war against Iran if a hostage is killed. It's going to be very hot, I guess.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #533 on: April 01, 2019, 10:47:13 am »

I hope Reagan becomes POTUS in this TL.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #534 on: April 02, 2019, 03:07:34 pm »

Here's the link on AL Governors:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_Alabama

*Brewer was NOT term limited in 1974 in your TL, but he would've ran for a 2nd full 4-year term.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #535 on: April 02, 2019, 03:27:14 pm »

I'll provide the next update (the final one before the primaries begin) within the next days. Have been too busy recently Smiley
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #536 on: April 02, 2019, 04:23:23 pm »

I hope Reagan becomes POTUS in this TL.

I would support Reagan but I doubt that would happen because a Reagan win in 1980 would go against the premise of this TL due to the fact his win would lead to a Conservative Republic like OTL not a liberal Republic.

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #537 on: April 02, 2019, 04:24:03 pm »

Looking forward to more juiciness in this TL.

I feel sorry for Reagan: getting denied the Presidency how many times ? I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to run for Governor again in 1982 when Moonbeam bails.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #538 on: April 06, 2019, 04:54:25 am »

December 27, 1979: Soviet Union invades Afghanistan

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Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan on December 29, 1979

On December 27, 1979, Soviet troops launched an invasion into Afghanistan and begun occupying major governmental, military and media buildings, including the Presidential Palace in Kabul. Immediately after Soviet troops entered Afghanistan along two ground routes and one air corridor, local militias begun a counter operation. Babrak Karmal, Afghanistan's new president, charged the Soviets with causing an increase in the unrest, and demanded that the 40th Army step in and quell the rebellion, as his own army had proved untrustworthy.

Along with the international community, the Ford Administration condemned the intervention as a serious violation of Afghan sovereignty. President Ford made it clear that the United States under his leadership would not remain silent and consider various sanctions and arming rebels. However, he also made it clear that he has no interest in turning Afghanistan into a close ally of the US and threaten the USSR with American military presence there. It is unclear at this point, whether a planned meeting between Ford and Brezhnev in East Berlin in March 1980 will even take place. A White House spokesman, the president considers cancel the unofficial meeting, should the Politburo stay on course.


December 31, 1979: New Gallup poll

President Ford job approval
Approve: 54% ▼
Disapprove: 39% ▲


January 10, 1980: President Ford imposes additional sanctions on Iran, sanctions Soviets

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President Gerald Ford imposed a variety of sanctions against both Iran and the USSR

No breakthrough in the efforts to release the American hostages captured in November led President Gerald Ford to impose even stricter sanctions on the Iranian regime. The Treasury Secretary was directed to cut off any Iranian access to capital markets. Meanwhile, the president renewed threats made by Secretary of State Richard Nixon to use American military force against Iran if necessary.

On January 10, the president also issued sanctions on the Soviet Union, cancelling some deliveries of grain that were approved under the Rockefeller presidency. “I am aware that this also affects civilians suffering under the Soviet regime, but their renewed aggression makes it necessary to show American determination”, the president said in a public statement.


Mid-January 1980: Momentum for Reagan candidacy grows

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Ronald Reagan during a campaign event in January 1980

Months ago, it seemed as Ronald Reagan’s announced presidential bid was a hopeless case and merely intended to push the Republican platform into a more conservative leaning. But in light of recent setbacks for the Ford Administration, the Gipper’s candidacy gains steam. He experienced a bump in the polls and there is enthusiasm on his campaign rallies. Reagan has his campaign focused on his key issues such as major new tax cuts across the board, deregulation and an increase in military spending. The renewed Soviet aggression in Afghanistan is proof to him that détente policies by the Rockefeller and Ford Administration have outlived themselves. However, Reagan has not attacked the president personally at this point.

President Ford has not much responded to his challenger, but pointed out that he is far more experienced than any of his opponents. He continues to point to the successes of the Rockefeller presidency, in which he played a key role. The incumbent is still expected to win the Republican nomination, but it looks like Reagan is making it a fight rather than a cakewalk.


January 31, 1980: New Gallup polls

President Ford job approval
Approve: 53% ▼
Disapprove: 39% ▬


1980 Republican Party presidential nomination

President Gerald Ford: 52% ▼
Former Governor Ronald Reagan: 39% ▲
Someone else/undecided: 9%



1980 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Senator Lloyd Bentsen: 25% ▼
Former Governor Reubin Askew: 21% ▬
Governor Jerry Brown: 16% ▲
Senator John Glenn: 12% ▲
Senator Walter Mondale: 10% ▲
Governor Jere Beasley: 2% ▼
Someone else/undecided: 14%



IOWA: 1980 Republican Party presidential nomination

President Gerald Ford: 50%
Former Governor Ronald Reagan: 37%
Someone else/undecided: 13%



IOWA: 1980 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Senator Lloyd Bentsen: 24%
Senator John Glenn: 17%
Former Governor Reubin Askew: 15%
Senator Walter Mondale: 14%
Governor Jerry Brown: 14%
Governor Jere Beasley: 3%
Someone else/undecided: 13%
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Cath
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« Reply #539 on: April 06, 2019, 06:59:47 am »

“Under the Rockefeller-Ford Administration, America’s place in the world has declined, with the advance of tyranny throughout Latin America and the Middle East.” Predicting success for hawkish candidates.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #540 on: April 06, 2019, 08:47:01 pm »

I'm assuming Daddy Marcos exploited the weakness of Rocky & Ford ?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #541 on: April 12, 2019, 08:56:31 am »
« Edited: April 22, 2019, 04:15:29 am by President Johnson »

February 5, 1980

DECISION 1980: Ford defeats Reagan in Iowa! Bentsen wins Democratic caucus, Glenn and Brown with strong performance!

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Iowa Republican Caucus
✓ Gerald R. Ford (inc.): 62.4%
Ronald Reagan: 37.1%

And there it goes: President Gerald Ford has won the first Republican caucus of the 1980 election by defeating challenger Ronald Reagan in Iowa. He won by over 24 points in a state, that Nelson Rockefeller lost to Reagan in 1972 election. The president has run up his margins in urban and suburban areas, while Reagan won a lot of rural counties. Fiord thanked his supporters and directly flew to New Hampshire, where is expected to win as well in the upcoming primary.


Iowa Democratic Caucus
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 24.3%
John Glenn: 22.1%
Jerry Brown: 21.7%
Walter Mondale: 16.7%
Reubin Askew: 11.0%
Jere Beasley: 3.5%

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The victory on the Democratic side belongs to the Texan: Senator Lloyd Bentsen has, as polls already predicted, won the first Democratic contest of the 1980 cycle. He garnered about a fourth of the vote. But there are two more candidates, who have a good night: Senator John Glenn of Ohio overperformed opinion polls and came in a very strong second, closely followed by California Governor Jerry Brown. To Walter Mondale, Senator from neighboring Minnesota, and Reubin Askew, the former Florida governor, this result is a disappointment. Alabama Governor Jere Beasley finished last among the major candidates.


February 6, 1980: Jere Beasley withdraws candidacy, endorses Bentsen

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Governor Jere Beasley's short lived candidacy comes to an end after failing to gain traction

The first major Democratic contender is out: Alabama Governor Jere Beasley suspended his campaign after a very poor showing in Iowa. His quest for the nomination has always viewed as a longshot and lacked major financial support. Several rank and file Southern Democrats have united behind the Bentsen and Askew campaigns. Beasley told his supporters that he favors Lloyd Bentsen to be party’s standard bearer.


February 12, 1980

DECISION 1980: Ford and Glenn victorious in New Hampshire primaries! Brown strong second

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New Hampshire Republican Primary
✓ Gerald R. Ford (inc.): 55.0%
Ronald Reagan: 44.5%

Another victory for Gerald Ford: New Hampshire is a conservative state in New England but has backed Nelson Rockefeller in 1972 as well. Reagan hoped to improve from his Iowa defeat, and he did, but just fell short by ten points. The hopes of his campaign are now in the two upcoming contests in Nevada and South Carolina.


New Hampshire Democratic Primary
✓ John Glenn: 27.3%
Jerry Brown: 26.0%
Lloyd Bentsen: 20.4%
Walter Mondale: 15.6%
Reubin Askew: 8.9%

The New Hampshire primary essentially produced two winners, two losers and a neutral result. John Glenn definitely belongs to the winner, as he came in first with over 27% of the vote. This is a crucial victory for his campaign. The second, and maybe even bigger winner is Jerry Brown. The 41 year old California has yet again surprised political observers by gaining a lot of grassroots support from Democratic activists. The New Hampshire primary gives him momentum in his bid to win Nevada later this month. For Lloyd Bentsen, the result is satisfying, but not too great either. Both Walter Mondale and Reubin Askew struggled to break out and came in fourth and fifth. However, for Askew, there is reason to be optimistic about South Carolina, where he is neck-in-neck with Bentsen.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #542 on: April 12, 2019, 09:51:07 am »

Go on....
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« Reply #543 on: April 12, 2019, 03:35:53 pm »

Go on....
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« Reply #544 on: April 16, 2019, 01:02:14 pm »

February 15, 1980: Vice President William Scranton walks off meeting with Soviet minister

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Vice President William Scranton walked off a meeting with the Soviet foreign minister over severe disagreements on Afghanistan

Showdown in Vienna: At a bilateral meeting between US and Soviet representatives, Vice President William Scranton walked off a conversation with Foreign Minister Alexei Gromyko. The two discussed the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, which has been condemned by the Ford Administration and several other nations. President Gerald Ford himself originally planned a summit with Secretary General Leonid Brezhnev, but cancelled the planned event after the invasion took place. However, he agreed for Vice President William Scranton, who tours Europe, to meet with the foreign minister of the USSR. Apparently, he told the vice president that the USSR won’t withdraw its troops any time soon and America should stay out of the conflict.

Right after the news broke, a White House spokesman announced that the president is considering a series of sanctions against Moscow. After the final Johnson years and the Rockefeller presidency calmed down tension between the superpowers, it begins to look like the Cold War is restarting.


February 19, 1980

DECISION 1980: Reagan upset in South Carolina! Democratic contest undecided, extremely close between Bentsen and Askew

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South Carolina Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 55.5%
Gerald R. Ford (inc.): 44.3%

Ronald Reagan stuns the political world! He upset President Gerald Ford in South Carolina primary. This is a badly needed win for him after two losses earlier this month and underlines his status a serious contender for the Republican nomination. The president’s advisors had, as insiders report, already prepared him for a potential loss, even though they hoped to pull it off and force Reagan to quit his candidacy or cost him momentum he gained over the last few days.


South Carolina Democratic Primary
Reubin Askew: 28.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 28.5%
Jerry Brown: 19.7%
John Glenn: 17.3%
Walter Mondale: 5.5%

The only thing that is clear on the Democratic side is that Jerry Brown and John Glenn finished with respectable numbers in a state of the Deep South. A region, where Walter Mondale has apparently trouble to gain traction, as he ended up with just over five percent of the vote. Reubin Askew and Lloyd Bentsen finished ahead of the rest of the field. Askew is currently in the lead with less than 100 votes. As neither candidate was declared a winner, a manual recount will take place.


February 26, 1980

DECISION 1980: Reagan wins his next contest in Nevada! Brown on top of Democrats!

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Nevada Republican Caucus
✓ Ronald Reagan: 53.8%
Gerald R. Ford (inc.): 46.0%

The Gipper is having a moment: With the support of his friend Senator Paul Laxalt a local Republican groups, he managed to edge out his second win against President Ford this cycle. This confirms his appeal among a certain electorate of the party. The incumbent, who never ran for national office other than Nelson Rockefeller’s vice president, has lately suffered from a slowdown of the economy and turmoil on the world stage. Reagan thanked his supporters and said the results show Republicans’ desire for something new. The Ford team downplayed the loss and expressed confidence the president will ultimately win the nomination and a full term in November. However, behind the scenes, the team is getting more nervous as Reagan’s charisma sticks with a lot of voters.


Nevada Democratic Caucus
✓ Jerry Brown: 35.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 26.3%
John Glenn: 18.0%
Reubin Askew: 12.7%
Walter Mondale: 7.1%

Jerry Brown has been leading in the Nevada polls for more than two weeks, but his leads were all within the margin of error. Now that the voters finally spoke, the California governor has not just pulled off a win, he almost beat Lloyd Bentsen, the runner-up, by double digits. Media observers described his victory as pretty impressive. As a result, the Brown, who also had strong showings in the previous contests, campaign goes with momentum into Super Tuesday.


February 27, 1980: Reubin Askew declared winner in South Carolina by 154 votes; Democratic contest produces four winners in four states

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Reubin Askew has officially won the South Carolina primary

Over a week late, the South Carolina Democratic primary results are finally certified: Former Florida Governor Reubin Askew has won the state by 154 votes over Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen. This means that the four Democratic contests before Super Tuesday have produced four different winners.


February 29, 1980 New Gallup polls, including for 1980

President Ford loses ground in all polls, even though he still leading in both the Republican primary and general election polls. Ronald Reagan on the Republican side as well as Jerry Brown and John Glenn on the Democratic side have gained traction.

President Ford job approval
Approve: 51% ▼
Disapprove: 42% ▲


1980 Republican Party presidential nomination

President Gerald Ford: 50% ▼
Former Governor Ronald Reagan: 40% ▲
Someone else/undecided: 10%



1980 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Senator Lloyd Bentsen: 24% ▼
Governor Jerry Brown: 19% ▲
Former Governor Reubin Askew: 17% ▼
Senator John Glenn: 17% ▲
Senator Walter Mondale: 8% ▼
Someone else/undecided: 15%



1980 General election match-ups

Gerald Ford (R, inc.): 48%
Lloyd Bentsen (D): 46%

Gerald Ford (R, inc.): 50%
Reubin Askew (D): 45%

Gerald Ford (R, inc.): 51%
Jerry Brown (D): 45%

Gerald Ford (R, inc.): 51%
Walter Mondale (D): 43%


Ronald Reagan (R): 47%
Lloyd Bentsen (D): 47%

Ronald Reagan (R): 47%
Reubin Askew (D): 45%

Ronald Reagan (R): 49%
Jerry Brown (D): 46%

Ronald Reagan (R): 50%
Walter Mondale (D): 43%
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #545 on: April 16, 2019, 02:42:48 pm »

I think Reagan would do better in NH than IA , remember in OTL he did much better in NH than IA both in 76 and 80. NH was a pretty conservative Republican state in those days .
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #546 on: April 16, 2019, 03:29:08 pm »

I'm assuming the administrations of Rocky & Ford have friendly relationship with Taiwan ?

Would the UN be Ok with both Taiwan & PRC as members ?

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Cold War Liberal
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« Reply #547 on: April 16, 2019, 05:14:39 pm »

I'm still in favor of an Askew/Glenn ticket if I can't have President Mondale.

Brown is icky. Sad Bentsen is... meh.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #548 on: April 16, 2019, 05:46:13 pm »

I'm still in favor of an Askew/Glenn ticket if I can't have President Mondale.

Brown is icky. Sad Bentsen is... meh.

I'm going to assume that Clements won the TX Governor's Mansion for the GOP in 1978 in this TL as he did in real life.
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El Bayamés
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« Reply #549 on: April 16, 2019, 06:41:43 pm »

Could we see a map of the primary results so far?
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