The liberal Republic

[America Needs R'hllor]

GO GLENN!

[President Johnson]

I'm still in favor of an Askew/Glenn ticket if I can't have President Mondale.

Brown is icky. Bentsen is... meh.

I'm going to assume that Clements won the TX Governor's Mansion for the GOP in 1978 in this TL as he did in real life.

Yes, he still won the governorship.

Could we see a map of the primary results so far?

I'll do one after the next update, which consists Super Tuesday

[LoneStarDem]

I'm also going to assume in this TL, Briscoe was defeated in the nasty Dem Primary to then-State AG John Hill (D), who choked to Clements in the GE.

Here's hoping White beats Clements in 1982....

[President Johnson]

March 4, 1980

DECISION 1980: Reagan takes lead by sweeping the South, puts pressure on Ford; Brown and Bentsen take commanding leads




Alabama Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 63.0%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 36.3%

Arkansas Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 64.3%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 33.9%

Colorado Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 54.5%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 44.2%

Georgia Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 58.2%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 41.7%

Massachusetts Republican Primary
✓ Gerald Ford (inc.): 66.0%
Ronald Reagan 31.8%

Minnesota Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 49.9%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 49.6%

Oklahoma Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 52.7%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 46.7%

Tennesee Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 50.0%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 49.7%

Texas Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 60.3%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 38.8%

Virginia Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 53.2%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 45.7%

Vermont Republican Primary
✓ Gerald Ford (inc.): 81.3%
Ronald Reagan 17.3%


Summary: A warning sign for Gerald Ford



Ronald Reagan had a very good night

What a resounding victory for Ronald Reagan: He won all but two contests over an incumbent president, whose campaign failed to rally enough Republican support behind him. All political observers now agree that this has shifted the power balance within the party and that the Gipper has a real shot at the nomination. However, it must be admitted that the contests of Super Tuesday took mostly place in states favorable to him. Once the Atlantic North East and Mid-West start voting, President Ford is expected to make up a lot of ground. Nevertheless, the president must increase his presence on the campaign trail, something that even his advisors told him lately. Up to this point, Ford was not taking the challange that serious. The Super Tuesday results are a warning sign for the occupant of the Oval Office.


The Republican primary map:

Ronald Reagan: ~19% of delegates
Gerald Ford (inc.): ~6% of delegates


Alabama Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 32.5%
Jerry Brown: 24.4%
Reubin Askew: 23.1%
John Glenn: 12.3%
Walter Mondale: 7.0%

Arkansas Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 29.9%
Reubin Askew: 27.4%
Jerry Brown: 24.1%
John Glenn: 10.5%
Walter Mondale: 5.7%

Colorado Democratic Caucus
✓ Jerry Brown: 30.6%
Lloyd Bentsen: 25.7%
John Glenn: 25.0%
Walter Mondale: 11.3%
Reubin Askew: 6.8%

Georgia Democratic Primary
✓ Reubin Askew: 29.4%
Lloyd Bentsen: 26.1%
Jerry Brown: 22.4%
John Glenn: 14.2%
Walter Mondale: 5.7%

Massachusetts Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 26.5%
John Glenn: 24.1%
Lloyd Bentsen: 21.9%
Walter Mondale: 13.6%
Reubin Askew: 6.6%

Minnesota Democratic Caucus
✓ Walter Mondale: 28.9%
Jerry Brown: 26.1%
John Glenn: 18.4%
Lloyd Bentsen: 17.6%
Reubin Askew: 8.3%

Oklahoma Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 27.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 27.0%
John Glenn: 19.2%
Reubin Askew: 18.0%
Walter Mondale: 7.8%

Tennessee Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 23.6%
Lloyd Bentsen: 23.3%
Reubin Askew: 23.0%
John Glenn: 18.9%
Walter Mondale: 7.2%

Texas Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 41.5%
Jerry Brown: 21.5%
Reubin Askew: 15.2%
John Glenn: 14.1%
Walter Mondale: 5.1%

Virginia Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 25.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 22.6%
Reubin Askew: 19.7%
John Glenn: 19.0%
Walter Mondale: 11.8%

Vermont Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 29.5%
John Glenn: 28.1%
Lloyd Bentsen: 17.9%
Walter Mondale: 15.4%
Reubin Askew: 8.6%


Summary: Bentsen and Brown emerge as frontrunners

On the Democratic side, two contenders took the lead: Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas and Governor Jerry Brown of California. Bentsen has gained ground through his strong performance in the South while finishing with respectable results in the North. Even though Reubin Askew was able to cut into his support among Southerners and win contests, Bentsen remains to overall favorite. Meanwhile, Governor Jerry Brown and his youthful grassroots campaign for government reform has gained steam and he won several important states. Even Tennessee, Oklahoma and Virginia; states, that he wasn't expected to win. He certainly took advantage of the Southern rivalery between Bentsen and Askew, what allowed him to come in first with a relatively low vote share.

For John Glenn, it was not enough to win any state at this point. He pledged to continue his campaign, though. Walter Mondale managed one win in his homestate of Minnesota, but had poor showings almost anywhere else. Especially in the South he mostly failed to get out of single digits.

As of now, the Democratic contest looks like to become a matchup between Bentsen and Brown.


The Democratic map:

Jerry Brown: ~10% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~10% of delegates
John Glenn: ~3% of delegates
Reubin Askew: ~3% of delegates
Walter Mondale: ~2% of delegates


March 5, 1980: Walter Mondale suspends campaign after poor showing

Senator Walter Mondale is out

Walter Mondale takes a logical step after Super Tuesday: The senator officially ended his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. "Even though the upcoming states to hold primaries look more favorable to us, it is clear that I can't win the nomination. I thank you all for your support", he said. Mondale left open whom he would support.

[LoneStarDem]

Ford must be that lazy LOL.

[President Johnson]

I think Reagan would do better in NH than IA , remember in OTL he did much better in NH than IA both in 76 and 80. NH was a pretty conservative Republican state in those days .

I've modified these results a little now

[LoneStarDem]

I think Reagan would do better in NH than IA , remember in OTL he did much better in NH than IA both in 76 and 80. NH was a pretty conservative Republican state in those days .

I've modified these results a little now

POTUS Ford must've been off his game lately.... Reagan's getting the mojo & Ford wishes he had picked Reagan for VP.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I think Reagan would do better in NH than IA , remember in OTL he did much better in NH than IA both in 76 and 80. NH was a pretty conservative Republican state in those days .

I've modified these results a little now

POTUS Ford must've been off his game lately.... Reagan's getting the mojo & Ford wishes he had picked Reagan for VP.

I don't have the map memorized, but I think these are all states that Reagan won in the RL 1976 primaries, with the exception of perhaps Minnesota.

EDIT: I checked, and it looks like TN is the only exception.

[LoneStarDem]

I wonder if Ford & Reagan will hold any primary debates ?

[President Johnson]

March 8, 1980: Reagan challenges Ford to debate; Brown, Bentsen and Askew agree to participate in Democratic forum



While Ronald Reagan wants a televised primary debate, President Ford remains reluctant about that

Republican presidential contender Ronald Reagan has officially called upon President Gerald Ford to debate him live on TV. ?I believe that it is in the voters interest to have to major candidates for the Republican nomination debating the issues of this campaign?, he told supporters at a Mississippi rally. The Ford campaign remained lukewarm in a response. Later on, President Ford said he did not make up his mind, but he doesn?t think additional debate is necessary since voters ?already know where he stands?.

Meanwhile, the Democratic contenders have reached an agreement: Senator Lloyd Bentsen, Governor Jerry Brown and Governor Reubin Askew have agreed to participate in a televised forum later that month. The Glenn campaign has also been invited, but not given an official response. Senator Glenn, however, indicated he would welcome the opportunity to debate.


March 9, 1980: Ahead of Maine primary, Edmund Muskie endorses Brown



Former Senator and 1976 presidential nominee Edmund Muskie endorsed Jerry Brown ahead of the Maine primary

Two days before Maine holds its primaries, former Senator and 1976 presidential nominee Edmund Muskie has endorsed Jerry Brown?s candidacy. Muskie said that the 42-year old California governor has energized the Democratic base and run a spectacular grassroots campaign. Brown has been locked in a close fight with John Glenn in Maine polls. Muskie denied speculation he aims a political comeback after he left the senate in 1977 following his crushing defeat against Nelson Rockefeller in 1976.


March 11, 1980

DECISION 1980: Ford wins two of three primaries; Brown upsets in Michigan and Maine, Bentsen crushes field in Mississippi



Maine Republican Primary
✓ Gerald Ford (inc.): 57.4%
Ronald Reagan: 40.9%

Michigan Republican Primary
✓ Gerald Ford (inc.): 70.7%
Ronald Reagan: 27.6%

Mississippi Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 52.8%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 46.6%

After his weak performance on Super Tuesday, President Gerald Ford has rebounded: He both won Maine and, by a wide margin, his homestate of Michigan. And even in Mississippi, he managed to keep it relatively close. However, it underlines that he has trouble in the South. This gives Democratic hopefuls such as Lloyd Bentsen confidence to win back the region in a general election match-up, should Ford win the nomination (which he is still expected to).

The Republican primary map:

Ronald Reagan: ~20% of delegates
Gerald Ford (inc.): ~11% of delegates


Maine Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 33.6%
John Glenn: 30.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 25.1%
Reubin Askew: 10.3%

Michigan Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 29.6%
John Glenn: 28.4%
Lloyd Bentsen: 24.2%
Reubin Askew: 17.0%

Mississippi Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 43.2%
John Glenn: 19.3%
Reubin Askew: 18.9%
Jerry Brown: 18.0%



Governor Jerry Brown continues his momentum: He edged out narrow wins in Maine and Michigan. Especially the latter is a huge success for his campaign, that didn?t started off in the top-tier. His victory in Michigan pressures John Glenn, who hoped to make inroads in the Midwest after only winning New Hampshire so far. In Mississippi, Lloyd Bentsen easily defeated his competitors, who all finished close at each other with about a fifth of the vote. His two most recent victories give Jerry Brown the lead at this point. However, Lloyd Bentsen, who performed respectable in the North, is still within striking distance. First media observers already start talking about a Bentsen/Brown or Brown/Bentsen ticket.


The Democratic map:

Jerry Brown: ~13% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~11% of delegates
John Glenn: ~3% of delegates
Reubin Askew: ~3% of delegates
Walter Mondale: ~2% of delegates

[LoneStarDem]

On NC Governor: Holshouser was term limited from succeeding himself in 1976, so I don't think he would've been allowed to run again for the Governorship that year.

I'm going to assume Jim Hunt (D) won the Governorship in 1976 in this TL like he did in real life.

[President Johnson]

On NC Governor: Holshouser was term limited from succeeding himself in 1976, so I don't think he would've been allowed to run again for the Governorship that year.

I'm going to assume Jim Hunt (D) won the Governorship in 1976 in this TL like he did in real life.

Holshouser became a senator in 1979 after a successful primary challange to Jesse Helms that was supported by Nelson Rockefeller.

[LoneStarDem]

Which means that Hunt became NC Governor in 1977 after getting elected in 1976 in real life.

Speaking of Helms, what's he going to do in this TL ? Run for the other US Senate seat in 1980 ?

[LoneStarDem]

Looking forward to seeing if Ford manages to entice Reagan become VP ?

[UWS]

Looking forward to seeing if Ford manages to entice Reagan become VP ?

That would be a very smart move in order to unite all the wings of the party.

[LoneStarDem]

Looking forward to seeing if Ford manages to entice Reagan become VP ?

That would be a very smart move in order to unite all the wings of the party.

Something tells me Ford will deeply regret NOT picking Reagan as VP although if Ford wins the nomination, he can still pick Reagan & dump the other guy.

[President Johnson]

March 13, 1980: President Ford, joined by allies, announces boycott of Olympic Games in Moscow



President Gerald Ford announces his decision to boycott the Olympic Summer games in Moscow

Within months, US-Soviet tensions have risen to levels not seen since the presidency of John Kennedy. When Nelson Rockefeller died less than a year ago, many thought the Cold War was over and some peaceful co-existence would endure for decades. That all changed with the Soviet intervention of Afghanistan. President Gerald Ford already issued a variety of sanctions against Moscow and cancelled food exports. On March 13, 1980, he announced together with key allies such as the UK, France, Canada and West Germany to boycott the Olympic Summer games in Moscow later this year. "As someone who has always been interested in sports and promoted sports, I deeply regret to take the decision, but we have no choice. The Soviet aggression must be confronted at every level", Ford said at a White House press conference.

According to various sources, US special forces have already begun to deliver arms to Afghanistan and help rebels against the Russians.


March 14, 1980

DECISION 1980: Ford and Brown win two Grest Plains primaries! Reagan and Bentsen take Louisiana




Kansas Republican Caucus
✓ Gerald Ford (inc.): 52.0%
Ronald Reagan: 47.4%

Louisiana Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 55.9%
Gerald Ford (inc.): 43.6%

Nebraska Republican Primary
✓ Gerald Ford (inc.): 53.1%
Ronald Reagan: 46.3%

Some relief for the president: He won both Kansas, where Senator Bob Dole heavily campaigned for him, and Nebraska, the state of his birth. Ronald Reagan continued his win streak in the South, where he managed to win Louisiana.

The Republican primary map:

Ronald Reagan: ~21% of delegates
Gerald Ford (inc.): ~13% of delegates


Kansas Democratic Caucus
✓ Jerry Brown: 35.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 28.1%
John Glenn: 20.5%
Reubin Askew: 15.7%

Louisiana Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 40.5%
Reubin Askew: 27.3%
John Glenn: 16.8%
Jerry Brown: 14.3%

Nebraska Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 33.3%
Llyod Bentsen: 31.7%
John Glenn: 20.8%
Reubin Askew: 13.0%

After the latest primaries, it becomes more and more clear that Jerry Brown and Lloyd Bentsen are running away. Both have won contests this night and collected almost all delegates up for grabs on this day. Jerry Brown with his grassroots campaign has highly exceeded all expectations so far and won the most contests. Political observers agree that he has a very good shot at the nomination so far. But Lloyd Bentsen has also a reasonable path. What might help Bentsen: He is currently polling better for the general election and can make the case that he's the best one win states in both the South and the North.

The Democratic map:

Jerry Brown: ~15% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~12% of delegates
John Glenn: ~3% of delegates
Reubin Askew: ~3% of delegates
Walter Mondale: ~2% of delegates


March 15, 1980: John Glenn to end campaign for president



Senator John Glenn of Ohio has decided to end his campaign after failing to win more states

New Hampshire is the only state he won so far, despite respectable showings in some other contests. For John Glenn, this is disappointing enough to suspend his campaign. "I am deeply thankful for all the support I received, but the point has come, where I have no illusions that we can still win enough delegates", the Ohio senator told supports back home. He has declined to endorse one of the remaining candidates and added it's either going to be Brown or Bentsen and he would support both in the general election.

[LoneStarDem]

I'm assuming Taiwan still has diplomatic relations with the United States & still a member of the United Nations ?

[President Johnson]

I'm assuming Taiwan still has diplomatic relations with the United States & still a member of the United Nations ?

Yes. There will be no changes before the 1980 election

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Reagan loses Illinois and Ohio would you say it’s effectively over because I don’t think California might have enough delegates to make up for losses there

[OSR stands with Israel]

Looking forward to seeing if Ford manages to entice Reagan become VP ?

That would be a very smart move in order to unite all the wings of the party.

Something tells me Ford will deeply regret NOT picking Reagan as VP although if Ford wins the nomination, he can still pick Reagan & dump the other guy.

Depends on what Reagan asks though , because Reagan may not wanna be just a figurehead VP . Sort of like in OTL Ford told Reagan he would only accept VP if he has substantial influence on foreign policy and I believe wanted to select the Sec of State , some ambassadorships and the National Security Advisor .


Similarly Reagan may want to have substantial influence on economic policy

[LoneStarDem]

In other words: Reagan wants the Presidency or nothing at all.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In other words: Reagan wants the Presidency or nothing at all.

The VP position then wasn’t considered to be an influential position .


He probably would accept Sec of State but I doubt he would accept VP without policy concessions at the very least

[America Needs R'hllor]

Switching my support, go Brown!

[LoneStarDem]

What are the odds both the DNC & GOP have contested respective conventions ?