FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Sometimes it's just easier to say America is a stupid country.  It's usually true, and it doesn't require math or mental gymnastics to reach that conclusion.

Gee, attacking the voters for exercising their rights with a comment that comes across as Anti-American is obviously the best way to win an election.

Don't like it?  Find a safe space, ya PC betacuck.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Lol@the people saying those polls are rigged.

New low

[ProudModerate2]

Yuck and yuck.
Ohio does not surprise me, but Florida does.

[ApatheticAustrian]

america is not stupid.

the people of the US are just not exceptional anymore ....the same waves as in good old europe.

[Wells]

They're also missing voters in Cleveland lol

No that means that the margin of error is too high to show results.

Is it the same for voters under 50?

I'd say us but they have the Under-45 Crosstab in the Ohio poll which shows Clinton:41 Trump:39 Johnson:13 Stein:4

With a margin of error more than double those 46+. In fact they polled more people over 65 than under 45. There are no results for those 18-34 or 35-49. An in Florida, there are low numbers for Tampa Bay and rural Florida that cause them to often have a sample size too small to show. Obviously with such small sample sizes, even if it is reweighted, the results are bound to be misleading and will likely be at least a little bit off. So, this poll is junk. I'm not saying it's rigged, that should be obvious to those who can read, but the subsamples have messed up the poll.

[EpicHistory]

At the very least attacking the voters does not necessarily lead to losing an election, in some cases not even a loss of support.

He lost the Iowa primary.

Don't like it?  Find a safe space, ya PC betacuck.

So again, instead of defending the prior point, you resort to a logical fallacy of the ad hominem variety?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

With a margin of error more than double those 46+. In fact they polled more people over 65 than under 45. There are no results for those 18-34 or 35-49. An in Florida, there are low numbers for Tampa Bay and rural Florida that cause them to often have a sample size too small to show. Obviously with such small sample sizes, even if it is reweighted, the results are bound to be misleading and will likely be at least a little bit off. So, this poll is junk. I'm not saying it's rigged, that should be obvious to those who can read, but the subsamples have messed up the poll.

[Person Man]

At the very least attacking the voters does not necessarily lead to losing an election, in some cases not even a loss of support.

He lost the Iowa primary.

Don't like it?  Find a safe space, ya PC betacuck.

So again, instead of defending the prior point, you resort to a logical fallacy of the ad hominem variety?

You mean FOX News?

[EpicHistory]

You mean FOX News?

You mean a logical fallacy on your part?

[PresidentSamTilden]

america is not stupid.

the people of the US are just not exceptional anymore ....the same waves as in good old europe.

In a lot of ways, we're an older country now. We are the richest and most powerful, we're the establishment country, lol. We have been for the lifetimes of the vast majority of living americans. Such conditions aren't exactly the recipe for radical exceptionalism, are they?

In addition, america used to be by far the largest warehouse of fossil energy and mineral wealth. Much of these have been tapped and have peaked in their production. We've become the consumer rather than the producer.

HOWEVER, we still feel entitled to be treated as exceptional. Hence, Trump. So yeah, I agree with you.

[Person Man]

You mean FOX News?

You mean a logical fallacy on your part?

It IS a safe space...

[NOVA Green]

Wow!!!

Just ran to the store for a few minutes, and it looks like overall today has likely seen the biggest wave of posts on the polling thread in at least four years....

There is a whole lot of Red avatar freakout, Blue avatar crowing, and "I told you so" going on here.

That all being said, what has happened in the past few weeks boils down to this:

1.) Contrary to Media/Atlas/CW Trump has been able to consolidate the Republican base in the past few weeks to a normal GE level of Republican support. This accounts for the significant improvement in Trump numbers not only in the National Polls, but also in key swing states (OH/FL/WI) in particular. Additionally, it looks like AZ and GA are shifting to a point that are moving them almost out of range for Clinton, regardless of ground game or an air war strategy.

2.) Clinton's core weakness has always been the Millennials, which is the one core Obama coalition constituency that she has had major issues with from way back in the early primaries/caucuses. The fact that she is significantly under-performing Obama numbers and margins, with the largest age defined demographic in America, is a major drag not just in her national polling numbers, but even more significantly in her swing-state polling numbers.

3.) Clinton has done much to reach out to Bernie primary supporters, both by Co-opting many of his Progressive policy platforms during the primary season, adopting and providing significant concessions towards the DNC platform prior to the convention, and has managed to recapture the vast majority of Bernie Primary voters/supporters > 40 years.

4.) Clinton has greater room to grow than Trump in both national and swing-state polls, however she has done virtually nothing to push core aspects of the Bernie Millennial coalition from environmental issues, student loan reform, Dreamer Act, Marijuana Policy Reform, and regulation of Wall street.

5.) The attempt to portray Trump as a racist bigot is clearly not working with persuadable White/Anglo voters at this point. She has already captured a significant chunk of White College educated voters over a certain age in key suburban regions (Philly 'Burbs/ NoVA) etc.... Her media strategy focusing on "Trump the crazy" has already maxed out. She needs to shift to a new strategy focusing on what she will do for us (Not a Millennial but.... ) to bring the Goods back to the Hood. Basically, focus on a base turnout strategy, rather than trying to peel off a few Republicans here and there, and actually make a real argument for Millennials as to why they should vote for her and not Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

Just like Gore in 2000 this is Hillary's race to lose.... and for all the Clintonistas out there, don't blame me I voted for Bernie.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

In a lot of ways, we're an older country now. We are the richest and most powerful, we're the establishment country, lol. We have been for the lifetimes of the vast majority of living americans. Such conditions aren't exactly the recipe for radical exceptionalism, are they?

Your establishment is richest and most powerful; it is true. But what about regular people (without top 0.1% richest)?

Old Europe, especially Scandinavia + ~German countries, is much richer, safer, healthier, happier, more educated and you name it.

That's why we at most have 15-20% (with some exceptions) Trump'ish parties that have worked hard under many-many years to get there, despite terrible immigrations politics. And you've got Trump, coming from nowhere, who has descent chances to become the most powerful man in the world

We are actually to rich to risk. But you... What the hell do you have to lose?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5.) The attempt to portray Trump as a racist bigot is clearly not working with persuadable White/Anglo voters at this point. She has already captured a significant chunk of White College educated voters over a certain age in key suburban regions (Philly 'Burbs/ NoVA) etc.... Her media strategy focusing on "Trump the crazy" has already maxed out. She needs to shift to a new strategy focusing on what she will do for us (Not a Millennial but.... ) to bring the Goods back to the Hood. Basically, focus on a base turnout strategy, rather than trying to peel off a few Republicans here and there, and actually make a real argument for Millennials as to why they should vote for her and not Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

Has Clinton even mentioned Johnson or Stein? Or been questioned about their candidacies?

[ApatheticAustrian]

no so sure about that.....in the end, i guess, the millenials are going to vote overwhelmingly for her, but i think the amount of previous non-voters who are going to trump is going to out-balance it again.

anyone here who thinks that bernie would have done better at this point? i politely disagree - for at least 2-3 more election cycles the democratic party isn't able to reach a majority without their remaining blue collar strongholds and bernie would have, in my opinion, alienated the sub-urban voters too.

clinton is, kind of, the perfect compromise candidate she is just not gifted and baggage-less enough, imho, to pull it off in an authentic way.

the real problem for the democratic party, on the long run, could be the......exchange of traditionally voting blue-collar party of the electorate against educated people who are easier to alienate with populism and young people who are ripe to inflame with populism.....the classical blue-collar voter may die in 10 or 20 years and be gone forever, but for the near future, this would make the electoral college hostile to democrats AND kill unionized america for good. (the blue-collar republicans just don't see to care about this fact at all and neither walker nor snyder seem to pay for it on the long run.)

[pikachu]

It's still Spetember, the debates haven't come, and there's no reason for people to be panicking/cocky right now... It's fair the remember that Obama never held a consistent lead in Florida in 2012 and was able to win, and a 4 point lead in Ohio is easily surmountable. Evidently, Trump has been able to do it in the last week.

[Suburbia]

Some millennials like Clinton, some don't. The crazy rabid SJWs may go for Stein, or not vote, but who cares about their opinion. They've already done a lot of damage to the academic image of America.

Clinton's health is hurting her in the polls. The Lower Manhattan September 11th anniversary episode did not help at one bit.

Millennials--some of them are too idealistic. You can't always get what you want. Ending TPP would be a good thing, but they shouldn't care about TPP because most of them won't join public sector unions.

Most millennials don't vote, so who cares? Some of them are so Zinnified they think that America is a horrible place. Leave the country then. Live in North Korea and Iran if you hate "white colonialism and corporations". They think that things come free. They don't understand work (some of them). Money don't grow on trees. Sanders would have been DESTROYED by Trump. You would hear "commie, commie" from Giuliani and Christie day after day.

The polls are tightening, and Ohio and Florida will be close on Election Day. Clinton will most likely win millennial voters, but they don't vote so much. Most Americans don't care for millennials, they haven't produced in the economy yet.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I no longer believe she could even beat Cruz.

You are such a waste of space. You've contributed nothing of worth for a while except jumping in to fortell doom when things look dicey, then disappear when things are looking positive.

[Person Man]

Some millennials like Clinton, some don't. The crazy rabid SJWs may go for Stein, or not vote, but who cares about their opinion. They've already done a lot of damage to the academic image of America.

Clinton's health is hurting her in the polls. The Lower Manhattan September 11th anniversary episode did not help at one bit.

Millennials--some of them are too idealistic. You can't always get what you want. Ending TPP would be a good thing, but they shouldn't care about TPP because most of them won't join public sector unions.

Most millennials don't vote, so who cares? Some of them are so Zinnified they think that America is a horrible place. Leave the country then. Live in North Korea and Iran if you hate "white colonialism and corporations". They think that things come free. They don't understand work (some of them). Money don't grow on trees. Sanders would have been DESTROYED by Trump. You would hear "commie, commie" from Giuliani and Christie day after day.

The polls are tightening, and Ohio and Florida will be close on Election Day. Clinton will most likely win millennial voters, but they don't vote so much. Most Americans don't care for millennials, they haven't produced in the economy yet.

Their only escape is death..

[Roronoa D. Law]

Can't wait till the first debate and Trump becomes a thing of the past.

[NOVA Green]

5.) The attempt to portray Trump as a racist bigot is clearly not working with persuadable White/Anglo voters at this point. She has already captured a significant chunk of White College educated voters over a certain age in key suburban regions (Philly 'Burbs/ NoVA) etc.... Her media strategy focusing on "Trump the crazy" has already maxed out. She needs to shift to a new strategy focusing on what she will do for us (Not a Millennial but.... ) to bring the Goods back to the Hood. Basically, focus on a base turnout strategy, rather than trying to peel off a few Republicans here and there, and actually make a real argument for Millennials as to why they should vote for her and not Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

Has Clinton even mentioned Johnson or Stein? Or been questioned about their candidacies?

Good question... I can't recall a single incident of either, and by virtue of a position where I was able to work remotely, have been able to obsessively follow  the cable news outlets and forum.

Also, I am struggling to recall any post-convention speeches where she called out primary campaign policies, nor Democratic Party platform decisions, that she supported during the primary season, which would actually appeal to Millennial Voters.

At this point, considering the tightening of the race and the lack of discussion about core Millennial issues for the past two months, I really think she has little choice but to focus on more of a base strategy and outreach to what should be considering support for Obama and Millennial disgust with Trump, should be a solid core constituency for her that could easily add +1-2% in her national numbers, and likely even higher in several swing-states.

Also, whatever happened to a $12/Hr minimum wage with $15/Hr in more expensive Metro areas (Dem primary season)? This should be gold standard in OH/WI/IA and even in other places like MO/GA/AZ/NV.... etc.......

Voters don't forget and it's time to start throwing out the red meat in terms of actual support for policy changes and not just beating up on the dude with higher unfavorables....

[StatesPoll]

it is so hilarious to see,
Red Avatars(Hillary Supporters) complain about 'Clinton News Network' Poll results.
They also did about, (DNC Convention Speaker Michael) Bloomberg Ohio Poll.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

it is so hilarious to see,
Red Avatars(Hillary Supporters) complain about 'Clinton News Network' Poll results.

It's our resident strain of herpes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton can still win VA, CO, Pa and NH.

[StatesPoll]

Clinton can still win VA, CO, Pa and NH.

Pennsylvania:
Google Consumer Surveys  Sep. 7-13  831 LV  TRUMP 36% | Hillary 34% | Johnson 9%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus


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