FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5
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  FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5
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Author Topic: FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5  (Read 7870 times)
Virginiá
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« Reply #125 on: September 14, 2016, 08:06:48 PM »

4.) Clinton has greater room to grow than Trump in both national and swing-state polls, however she has done virtually nothing to push core aspects of the Bernie Millennial coalition from environmental issues, student loan reform, Dreamer Act, Marijuana Policy Reform, and regulation of Wall street.

It really is disappointing to see how much she is trying to win over some Republicans, even going so far as to wrangle up endorsements from Bush administration officials that liberals hate, all for basically nothing. It's not helping her and I don't understand why her campaign doesn't see this.

My thoughts are that she has been leading for so long that her campaign has gotten complacent and put most of its effort into branching out instead of digging deep. If she is losing in the polls long enough, I imagine she will put a lot of effort into winning over Millennials. Would that be an unreasonable assumption? It just doesn't make sense not to.

Maybe her campaign's research has found that there is basically no way to win Millennials over? If so, she might be in trouble if things don't change. I don't know, maybe a Clinton loss will teach the DNC never to get behind a candidate with so many problems again. I don't have much against her, but she brought too much baggage to the table. It might not be possible to get Millennials on board.


@StatesPoll: Asking kindly if you could please stop posting that picture. I/we get it.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #126 on: September 14, 2016, 08:07:11 PM »

if WI/MI//NH are more or less safe (and ofc PA and NM), everything could still work out nice for clinton.

there is just too much noise right now and this 50 states polls with all their weird non-results are making any sane debate (imho) impossible.

hopefully all the sound will clear at the end of this month and a reasonable number of high-quality state polls is going give us a believable average for each visible battleground.

(i don't believe that IO/NV/OH/FL will be clear anytime soon....NC seems to crawl back into the republican area)
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #127 on: September 14, 2016, 08:08:25 PM »

Voters don't forget and it's time to start throwing out the red meat in terms of actual support for policy changes and not just beating up on the dude with higher unfavorables....

It is probably not true anymore among RV, and very likely not among LV Smiley
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« Reply #128 on: September 14, 2016, 08:08:47 PM »

Some millennials like Clinton, some don't. The crazy rabid SJWs may go for Stein, or not vote, but who cares about their opinion. They've already done a lot of damage to the academic image of America.

Clinton's health is hurting her in the polls. The Lower Manhattan September 11th anniversary episode did not help at one bit.

Millennials--some of them are too idealistic. You can't always get what you want. Ending TPP would be a good thing, but they shouldn't care about TPP because most of them won't join public sector unions.

Most millennials don't vote, so who cares? Some of them are so Zinnified they think that America is a horrible place. Leave the country then. Live in North Korea and Iran if you hate "white colonialism and corporations". They think that things come free. They don't understand work (some of them). Money don't grow on trees. Sanders would have been DESTROYED by Trump. You would hear "commie, commie" from Giuliani and Christie day after day.

The polls are tightening, and Ohio and Florida will be close on Election Day. Clinton will most likely win millennial voters, but they don't vote so much. Most Americans don't care for millennials, they haven't produced in the economy yet.
Their only escape is death..

No..they should realize that Howard Zinn is long gone and utopias don't always happen. Politics is a process.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #129 on: September 14, 2016, 08:15:00 PM »

VA 13 replaces NV & Iowa as blue wall. But Clinton and McGinty are surviving the Toomey challenge 😁
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #130 on: September 14, 2016, 08:15:06 PM »



It really is disappointing to see how much she is trying to win over some Republicans, even going so far as to wrangle up endorsements from Bush administration officials that liberals hate, all for basically nothing. It's not helping her and I don't understand why her campaign doesn't see this

oh, i think this strategy would have worked, regarding trump's extreme attics to alienate most of "his own" party, with many other democrats....for example mister kaine (not sure about obama)....but the clintons have been vilified inside the "vast right-wing conspiracy" for such a long time and on so many different levels that in the end most of those intellectual or ideological republicans are still going to hold their nose and vote against the candidate who ....honestly....would be more conservative (contrary to "right-wing") than mister trump.

and in fact.....republicans have lost for such a long time at the presidential level that they are going to vote for everyone who can win.....tightening the polls is going to drive even more republicans to mister trump while bad polls would not have been so sexy for them, i guess.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #131 on: September 14, 2016, 08:16:32 PM »

4.) Clinton has greater room to grow than Trump in both national and swing-state polls, however she has done virtually nothing to push core aspects of the Bernie Millennial coalition from environmental issues, student loan reform, Dreamer Act, Marijuana Policy Reform, and regulation of Wall street.

It really is disappointing to see how much she is trying to win over some Republicans, even going so far as to wrangle up endorsements from Bush administration officials that liberals hate, all for basically nothing. It's not helping her and I don't understand why her campaign doesn't see this.

My thoughts are that she has been leading for so long that her campaign has gotten complacent and put most of its effort into branching out instead of digging deep. If she is losing in the polls long enough, I imagine she will put a lot of effort into winning over Millennials. Would that be an unreasonable assumption? It just doesn't make sense not to.

Maybe her campaign's research has found that there is basically no way to win Millennials over? If so, she might be in trouble if things don't change. I don't know, maybe a Clinton loss will teach the DNC never to get behind a candidate with so many problems again. I don't have much against her, but she brought too much baggage to the table. It might not be possible to get Millennials on board.


@StatesPoll: Asking kindly if you could please stop posting that picture. I/we get it.

Those Republicans appeal to suburbanites. When you're president, you should appeal to ALL Americans when it's said and done. Those Republicans can help her in GA, AZ, MO.

Those millennials may be right not to like those Republicans, but they matter too. Yes, some of their neo-conservatism is bad, but they despise Trump.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #132 on: September 14, 2016, 08:20:38 PM »

VA 13 replaces NV & Iowa as blue wall. But Clinton and McGinty are surviving the Toomey challenge 😁

besides ohio and maybe florida, it would really surprise me if the republicans would hold their senate seats in NH/il/WI/PA even while all those states go for clinton....even if the polls say otherwise now or are at leaster closer than we would tink.

and VA is going to be fine.....the strange polling in CO (and NM xD) is more "interesting" right now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #133 on: September 14, 2016, 08:24:35 PM »

Dems shouldn't worry about 2018, they need to worry about the SCOTUS and Garland
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #134 on: September 14, 2016, 08:29:18 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2016, 08:36:25 PM by ApatheticAustrian »

mister garland? but but....mister mcconell said, he would not be confirmed during the lame duck period.....why would anyone not believe him? i am sure the future senate minority leader is going to prefer a clinton-chosen forty-something male latino judge on the court.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #135 on: September 14, 2016, 08:47:05 PM »

In a lot of ways, we're an older country now. We are the richest and most powerful, we're the establishment country, lol. We have been for the lifetimes of the vast majority of living americans. Such conditions aren't exactly the recipe for radical exceptionalism, are they?
Your establishment is richest and most powerful; it is true. But what about regular people (without top 0.1% richest)?

Old Europe, especially Scandinavia + ~German countries, is much richer, safer, healthier, happier, more educated and you name it.

That's why we at most have 15-20% (with some exceptions) Trump'ish parties that have worked hard under many-many years to get there, despite terrible immigrations politics. And you've got Trump, coming from nowhere, who has descent chances to become the most powerful man in the world Smiley

We are actually to rich to risk. But you... What the hell do you have to lose? Smiley

Fair enough.

There is an argument though, very popular among the US right wing, that this is only so because we finance your defense. European countries spend far less on their military than the US, even by percentage. Your militarizes have not seen combat in a very long time, and are generally regarded to be in poor condition.

Donald Trump has made noises about lessening our commitments to our European allies as a result of this. I guess he wants to spend the savings to boost our economy by building more trump towers. Regardless, a withdrawal of US security for Eastern, Northern, and Central Europe would create an immense power vaccuum.

Oh well. Good thing Sweden doesn't have a large, militaristic, historical rival close to it's borders. Certainly, not one that has a history of influencing political parties in neighboring nations with implied and actual use of military force. And definitely not one that recently tested Swedish naval defenses by running a nuclear submarine under their largest port.

Nah...you guys will be fine without us. Let the good times roll...
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #136 on: September 14, 2016, 08:49:41 PM »

i am sure the future senate minority leader is going to prefer a clinton-chosen forty-something male latino judge on the court.

Yeah, isn't it near 100% certainty the President quietly pulls Garland's name at about 4pm on Monday before election day?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #137 on: September 14, 2016, 08:49:41 PM »

Some millennials like Clinton, some don't. The crazy rabid SJWs may go for Stein, or not vote, but who cares about their opinion. They've already done a lot of damage to the academic image of America.

Clinton's health is hurting her in the polls. The Lower Manhattan September 11th anniversary episode did not help at one bit.

Millennials--some of them are too idealistic. You can't always get what you want. Ending TPP would be a good thing, but they shouldn't care about TPP because most of them won't join public sector unions.

Most millennials don't vote, so who cares? Some of them are so Zinnified they think that America is a horrible place. Leave the country then. Live in North Korea and Iran if you hate "white colonialism and corporations". They think that things come free. They don't understand work (some of them). Money don't grow on trees. Sanders would have been DESTROYED by Trump. You would hear "commie, commie" from Giuliani and Christie day after day.

The polls are tightening, and Ohio and Florida will be close on Election Day. Clinton will most likely win millennial voters, but they don't vote so much. Most Americans don't care for millennials, they haven't produced in the economy yet.

I am not a Millennial, actually in my private sector career would likely fall into the "Job Creator" category considering that I was a Senior Hiring Manager, pushed and won significant expansion of business services (and associated FTEs) to our major corporate client.

However I do need to defend the Millennial Generation in certain areas:

1.) The reality is that the Millennial generation has suffered the most from the elective wars overseas, Iraq in particular. I lost a friend in Iraq back in '04 outside of Taji, seen a close friend's boyfriend go back to Iraq for his 3rd tour in the USMC (Falluja 2.0), had my son-in-law suffer a permanent disability that sent him into a coma for a week, as a result of an allergic reaction to the vaccine cocktail injected a week before he was to deploy to Afghanistan back in 2010.

2.) The Millennial generation also suffered heavily as a result of the economic collapse of the Great Recession in terms of overall debt, home ownership, and lack of jobs that were more likely to go to unemployed from generations with much more work experience and background.

3.) The Millennial generation has the worst prospects of any generation in modern American History, when it comes to the future of the American Dream. Obama has been the only President that they remember, other than the extreme failure of the George W. administration on foreign and economic policy.

If Clinton wants any chance of winning this election, she needs to pivot back to the base, and get down and pray to God that she hasn't already pushed away so many Democratic Primary voters by running away from core promises and pledges she made in the primaries.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #138 on: September 14, 2016, 09:07:10 PM »

it's true that europe is not spending enough on its military but there is also a lot of waste from double and tripple structures.....an united EU army would use the ressources in a much more effective way but the problem is the member states of the EU are not on the same site regarding military cooperation...and don't get me even started on the UK, which stopped any kind of move in that area for years and years......

the big problem in fact would not even be the money...but the mindset and the will.

europe hates, loathes, rejects war ...besides maybe france, which is kind of the king of all ironic twists, regarding their stereotype.

eastern european countries sure would love to have some kind of binding anti-russia alliance besides the NATO but it is not going to happen. UK, the biggest enemy of moscow in all of europe, is gone from the alliance and the german heart of europe would prefer russia as an economic partner and not a sworn enemy.

if the US votes for trump and trump does what he proposed (dwarfening or killing NATO or turn it into a pay-for-play-alliance) than question of baltic autonomy is surely a matter of submission to russia....but even now many voices have disagreed if "the west" in fact would do anything for some small, nearly unknown country in case of an invasion. (during the last years the russian have preferred economical colonialism anyway.)

to summarize it: it is not that europe, if united, couldn't withstand russia regarding a "normal" (non-nuclear) military confrontation. it is more like that we don't want at all and are lazy and have lost all ideals would prefer a safe seat in fron of the oven instead of some risky war.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #139 on: September 14, 2016, 09:50:34 PM »

4.) Clinton has greater room to grow than Trump in both national and swing-state polls, however she has done virtually nothing to push core aspects of the Bernie Millennial coalition from environmental issues, student loan reform, Dreamer Act, Marijuana Policy Reform, and regulation of Wall street.

It really is disappointing to see how much she is trying to win over some Republicans, even going so far as to wrangle up endorsements from Bush administration officials that liberals hate, all for basically nothing. It's not helping her and I don't understand why her campaign doesn't see this.

My thoughts are that she has been leading for so long that her campaign has gotten complacent and put most of its effort into branching out instead of digging deep. If she is losing in the polls long enough, I imagine she will put a lot of effort into winning over Millennials. Would that be an unreasonable assumption? It just doesn't make sense not to.

Maybe her campaign's research has found that there is basically no way to win Millennials over? If so, she might be in trouble if things don't change. I don't know, maybe a Clinton loss will teach the DNC never to get behind a candidate with so many problems again. I don't have much against her, but she brought too much baggage to the table. It might not be possible to get Millennials on board.


@StatesPoll: Asking kindly if you could please stop posting that picture. I/we get it.

I think she has too much time trying to nail down Trump on his high Unfavs, which was already established, instead of presenting a strong argument about why voters should support her.

The more I think about it, the complacency argument appears to be the fundamental strategic mistake of the campaign, going back even to the primaries.

Americans love a fighter, an insurgent challenger, and Clinton realized halfway through the Primary season that it was better to shift to a populist platform.... I am afraid she is making that same mistake in the GE, whereas Trump has honed his skills from the Primaries and realized that there is a balance between being the insurgent challenger and also being acceptable for Moderate and Independent voters in swing states.

I don't know if the Millennials are gone when it comes to base expansion for Clinton, however that generation values authenticity above all, which is a major part of the reason that Johnson is polling crazy numbers with that age group.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #140 on: September 14, 2016, 11:19:05 PM »

Wow, there's definitely somthing going on right now ... in favour of Trump.

All the polls conducted after "basket of deplorables" and her collapse on 9/11 seem to have Trump ahead or tied.

All the other pro-Hillary polls were conducted (long) before that, but were only posted now.
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Badger
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« Reply #141 on: September 14, 2016, 11:52:51 PM »

Wow, there's definitely somthing going on right now ... in favour of Trump.

All the polls conducted after "basket of deplorables" and her collapse on 9/11 seem to have Trump ahead or tied.

All the other pro-Hillary polls were conducted (long) before that, but were only posted now.

For once Tender is right. She exacerbated her problems further by turning around and apologizing for her basket comment.

Dems need to take a lesson from the GOP brand of politics. Never apologize.

It helps if you don't nominate a race-baiting nutter too, but still, never apologize. -
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Ljube
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« Reply #142 on: September 15, 2016, 12:01:28 AM »

Wow, there's definitely somthing going on right now ... in favour of Trump.

All the polls conducted after "basket of deplorables" and her collapse on 9/11 seem to have Trump ahead or tied.

All the other pro-Hillary polls were conducted (long) before that, but were only posted now.

For once Tender is right. She exacerbated her problems further by turning around and apologizing for her basket comment.

Dems need to take a lesson from the GOP brand of politics. Never apologize.

It helps if you don't nominate a race-baiting nutter too, but still, never apologize. -

So, are you pro-Trump now?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #143 on: September 15, 2016, 12:02:56 AM »

Looks like Clinton will need to rely on debates.
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« Reply #144 on: September 15, 2016, 12:06:49 AM »

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php

8 years ago the polls in Florida and Ohio were pretty similar, just FYI.
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Ljube
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« Reply #145 on: September 15, 2016, 12:09:18 AM »


Of course. It's still too early to conclude anything.
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« Reply #146 on: September 15, 2016, 12:25:23 AM »


I'm probably the only one who isn't overreacting because Trump will destroy himself at the first debate. So if anyone likes seeing Trump ahead, you better enjoy it now.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #147 on: September 15, 2016, 12:29:46 AM »


I'm probably the only one who isn't overreacting because Trump will destroy himself at the first debate.

This is exactly what I banked on in 2015. Trump doing badly in the debates, dropping to 4th or 5th in the polls, and then we watch Bush or Walker or Rubio get nominated. Problem solved. But this didn't actually happen.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #148 on: September 15, 2016, 12:59:00 AM »

It would be great if we got a University of Cincinnati poll for OH, because they used to be the gold standard in the state 5-10 years ago.

But it seems they are not doing their OH polling anymore ... Sad
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #149 on: September 15, 2016, 04:06:03 AM »

Wow, there's definitely somthing going on right now ... in favour of Trump.

All the polls conducted after "basket of deplorables" and her collapse on 9/11 seem to have Trump ahead or tied.

All the other pro-Hillary polls were conducted (long) before that, but were only posted now.

For once Tender is right. She exacerbated her problems further by turning around and apologizing for her basket comment.

Dems need to take a lesson from the GOP brand of politics. Never apologize.

It helps if you don't nominate a race-baiting nutter too, but still, never apologize. -
You are not that bright. She didn't apologize Smiley
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