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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5
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Author Topic: FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5  (Read 5553 times)
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #150 on: September 15, 2016, 12:25:23 am »


I'm probably the only one who isn't overreacting because Trump will destroy himself at the first debate. So if anyone likes seeing Trump ahead, you better enjoy it now.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #151 on: September 15, 2016, 12:29:46 am »


I'm probably the only one who isn't overreacting because Trump will destroy himself at the first debate.

This is exactly what I banked on in 2015. Trump doing badly in the debates, dropping to 4th or 5th in the polls, and then we watch Bush or Walker or Rubio get nominated. Problem solved. But this didn't actually happen.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #152 on: September 15, 2016, 12:59:00 am »

It would be great if we got a University of Cincinnati poll for OH, because they used to be the gold standard in the state 5-10 years ago.

But it seems they are not doing their OH polling anymore ... Sad
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #153 on: September 15, 2016, 04:06:03 am »

Wow, there's definitely somthing going on right now ... in favour of Trump.

All the polls conducted after "basket of deplorables" and her collapse on 9/11 seem to have Trump ahead or tied.

All the other pro-Hillary polls were conducted (long) before that, but were only posted now.

For once Tender is right. She exacerbated her problems further by turning around and apologizing for her basket comment.

Dems need to take a lesson from the GOP brand of politics. Never apologize.

It helps if you don't nominate a race-baiting nutter too, but still, never apologize. -
You are not that bright. She didn't apologize Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #154 on: September 15, 2016, 04:09:14 am »


Of course. It's still too early to conclude anything.


While it is true, it was not fair to compare with McCain having post convention bump.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #155 on: September 15, 2016, 06:21:59 am »


Of course. It's still too early to conclude anything.


While it is true, it was not fair to compare with McCain having post convention bump.

Yeah and it was just a couple of days before the financial system tanked.
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Shadows
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« Reply #156 on: September 15, 2016, 06:33:17 am »

If this holds true Trump is a Virginia or a PA away from Presidency which is scary. I think the Delusional Hillary fans have to take responsibility for the damage a Trump presidency will do when you nominate someone with this much baggage who most Americans consider a lier or dishonest & who has flip flopped in every thing.

I am not happy with Trump winning. This guy has the temperament of a spoiled brat, you can praise n ridicule him n get him to change major views. The damage he will do to Climate change with indiscriminate drilling will be irreversible & the future of the planet is at stake, not to add that there will be more racial tensions, more violent tendencies n these politics of hatred.

Some facts about the polls -

Hillary is leading among Registered Voters or tied but falls behind in Likely voters - Why?

I think it is due to a low millennial turnout & enthusiasm gap. It is difficult to command 30 year old guys without a good job or who lost a limb in Iraq to vote for Hillary just because Trump is a threat. You have to appeal to them, inspire them n focus on the issues.

Sanders hammered on Free College, Marijuana, Climate Change, Healthcare, Infra Spending & Trade Agreements time n again n people got the message he cared.

Clinton has not said a word about the 15$ Minimum Wage or the Dakota pipeline after DNC Convention. Those are big issues. If only she could have said she wants a cultural impact on native Americans or further studies if there are environmental concerns would have really appealed to people. She has forgotten the Progressive votes & has taken it for granted. It is ironical that Trump is proposing maternity leave.

She has got 1 Scam after the other from Clinton Foundation to classified emails, etc. And she is not reaching out. This is what Bernie said time n again - Make an effort to reach out.

She is courting Bush donors & Republicans when she is getting 3-5% of the GOP as every Republican seems to hate her. This was a blunder of a strategy.

I also think she is doing very bad among White Women - In this poll Trump is only doing marginally worse among White women than men - She can't reply on Minority & especially Minority women to boost her members.


I am also circumspect about the debate because Clinton was not good in the NBC Townhall & Trump made ridiculous statements but was way better as in he found a way to string together his narrative. Look at the ex - I got Intelligence brief & I couldn't believe Obama didn't follow X or Y. No1 knows what he heard & no1 can cross-check. He likely lied but was clever in the way he used it. The guy is a master manipulator - Look at the way he said 22% are dying & not 20% & see the expression change of the girl as if Trump cares.

Trump maybe lying n saying outrageous stuff but he looks more authentic n is a master manipulator of all these. I think he will do well in debates.

Clinton has to do better n deliver in a way that is not robotic


As much as I dislike Hillary, she has to win, there is no other choice.
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Shadows
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« Reply #157 on: September 15, 2016, 06:34:50 am »

The link about 08 polls showed Obama leading by 2 odd in Florida & 4 in Ohio which was roughly the result, given n take 1-2% here n there.

I don't see a major change. Polls should not be discounted if you don't like them. Clinton has to hold PA & VA otherwise it's doomsday
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Simfan34
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« Reply #158 on: September 15, 2016, 07:41:55 pm »
« Edited: September 15, 2016, 07:43:49 pm by Simfan34 »

The Drumpf surge will implode in a short period of time. With the first debate at latest. If he doesn't make another terrible gaffe someone before.

Inshallah, Mohamed, Inshallah! Tongue

I am not yet worried but I don't want to have to place all my hopes in the debates...
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #159 on: September 15, 2016, 07:45:56 pm »

i repeat myself..... on what base at all should debates be able to kill trump?

maybe a high-energy hillary can reclaim the youth vote and/or energie her own party but telling the public something new about trump could be kind of impossible at this point.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #160 on: September 15, 2016, 07:48:47 pm »

i repeat myself..... on what base at all should debates be able to kill trump?

maybe a high-energy hillary can reclaim the youth vote and/or energie her own party but telling the public something new about trump could be kind of impossible at this point.

Again... this freak out is why Dems cannot have nice things. Energising the youth vote is important, but people need to stop acting like this is the silver bullet. It's about increasing enthusiasm after a bad week across the board.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #161 on: September 15, 2016, 08:21:01 pm »

If this holds true Trump is a Virginia or a PA away from Presidency which is scary. I think the Delusional Hillary fans have to take responsibility for the damage a Trump presidency will do when you nominate someone with this much baggage who most Americans consider a lier or dishonest & who has flip flopped in every thing.

I am not happy with Trump winning. This guy has the temperament of a spoiled brat, you can praise n ridicule him n get him to change major views. The damage he will do to Climate change with indiscriminate drilling will be irreversible & the future of the planet is at stake, not to add that there will be more racial tensions, more violent tendencies n these politics of hatred.

Some facts about the polls -

Hillary is leading among Registered Voters or tied but falls behind in Likely voters - Why?

I think it is due to a low millennial turnout & enthusiasm gap. It is difficult to command 30 year old guys without a good job or who lost a limb in Iraq to vote for Hillary just because Trump is a threat. You have to appeal to them, inspire them n focus on the issues.

Sanders hammered on Free College, Marijuana, Climate Change, Healthcare, Infra Spending & Trade Agreements time n again n people got the message he cared.

Clinton has not said a word about the 15$ Minimum Wage or the Dakota pipeline after DNC Convention. Those are big issues. If only she could have said she wants a cultural impact on native Americans or further studies if there are environmental concerns would have really appealed to people. She has forgotten the Progressive votes & has taken it for granted. It is ironical that Trump is proposing maternity leave.

She has got 1 Scam after the other from Clinton Foundation to classified emails, etc. And she is not reaching out. This is what Bernie said time n again - Make an effort to reach out.

She is courting Bush donors & Republicans when she is getting 3-5% of the GOP as every Republican seems to hate her. This was a blunder of a strategy.

I also think she is doing very bad among White Women - In this poll Trump is only doing marginally worse among White women than men - She can't reply on Minority & especially Minority women to boost her members.


I am also circumspect about the debate because Clinton was not good in the NBC Townhall & Trump made ridiculous statements but was way better as in he found a way to string together his narrative. Look at the ex - I got Intelligence brief & I couldn't believe Obama didn't follow X or Y. No1 knows what he heard & no1 can cross-check. He likely lied but was clever in the way he used it. The guy is a master manipulator - Look at the way he said 22% are dying & not 20% & see the expression change of the girl as if Trump cares.

Trump maybe lying n saying outrageous stuff but he looks more authentic n is a master manipulator of all these. I think he will do well in debates.

Clinton has to do better n deliver in a way that is not robotic


As much as I dislike Hillary, she has to win, there is no other choice.

Shadows--- although the formatting of your post was somewhat hard on the eyes to read on my small laptop, these are similar to some statements that I made elsewhere on the board.

In particular, I solidly agree with your statements regarding Clinton not addressing Millennial issues in the Post-Convention era, and not giving them a reason to vote for her instead of voting Anti-Trump with a 3rd Party protest vote.

In particular, I think the minimum wage and environmental arguments can both appeal to Millennials and Moderate "Swing Voters / Persuadables".

We all know that Clinton is not the best when it comes to public speaking/likability, almost having kind of a Gore "Wonk" type personality. That being said, I think she will do well in the debates, assuming the MSM doesn't give Trump such low expectations where he "under promises and over delivers" where he is coronated as the winner of the first debate.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #162 on: September 15, 2016, 11:04:31 pm »

From my observations in Florida, enthusiasm for Trump has been high among Trump Supports in Broward, Palm Beach and Hillsborough County.  I frequently observe Trump supporters holding signs in Hollywood, Dania Beach, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Pompano, Tampa, Brandon, etc., and I've had canvassers come to my door on a couple of occasions in Hollywood.  I didn't see this during Romney's run in 2008.

Where are the Hillary supporters?  I'm just not seeing a presence anywhere outside of the Urban areas of Miami-Dade County. 

Again, this is just an observation, and I have no idea what affect this level of enthusiasm will have on the general election.  Being from New Jersey, I can imagine Trump has a virulent presence in the rest of FL as well as PA and OH, because there numerous Republican and Independent transplants from PA, Burbs of NY, NJ, Burbs of CT, NH and RI that are Pro-Trump.

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