FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 (user search)
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  FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5  (Read 7937 times)
Virginiá
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« on: September 14, 2016, 03:08:43 PM »

I, for one, welcome our new Trump overlords.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
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*****
Posts: 18,892
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2016, 05:20:06 PM »

Trump isn't running against an incumbent. Also this country doesn't like electing back-to-back presidents of the same party. It happened in 1988 because Reagan was beloved, but before that, you have to go back to 1964 (Ford doesn't count because he was never actually elected to the office).

And Hillary is just not as good of a campaigner as Obama was.

That's not really true. America actually has a history of choosing the same party, it's just that since presidents serve 4 year terms, there haven't really been that many chances. There is a small penalty due to the grievances the public can build up towards the party in power over 2 years, but if the incumbent is even relatively popular, it's perfectly possible.

1860 - 1932 saw 56 years of Republican control with long stretches of uninterrupted Republican controlSad 1860 - 1884, 24 years straight with the exception of Johnson, who only took over after the election / 1896 - 1912, 16 years straight / 1920 - 1932, 12 years straight again.

1932 - 1952, 20 straight years of Democrats (FDR, Truman)

1968 - 1992, Republicans control White House for 20 of 24 years, with Carter just barely winning his 1 term. If Nixon had not been, well, Nixon, it could very well have been 24 years straight.

2000Sad Gore won the popular vote and Bush barely won the EC, so you could almost consider this a 3rd term in the sense that it was perfectly possible and Democrats did win the popular vote.

1960Sad Another very close election that could have easily turned into a 3rd Republican term.


Point is, America doesn't really have a problem with 12+ years of the same party controlling the White House.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,892
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2016, 08:06:48 PM »

4.) Clinton has greater room to grow than Trump in both national and swing-state polls, however she has done virtually nothing to push core aspects of the Bernie Millennial coalition from environmental issues, student loan reform, Dreamer Act, Marijuana Policy Reform, and regulation of Wall street.

It really is disappointing to see how much she is trying to win over some Republicans, even going so far as to wrangle up endorsements from Bush administration officials that liberals hate, all for basically nothing. It's not helping her and I don't understand why her campaign doesn't see this.

My thoughts are that she has been leading for so long that her campaign has gotten complacent and put most of its effort into branching out instead of digging deep. If she is losing in the polls long enough, I imagine she will put a lot of effort into winning over Millennials. Would that be an unreasonable assumption? It just doesn't make sense not to.

Maybe her campaign's research has found that there is basically no way to win Millennials over? If so, she might be in trouble if things don't change. I don't know, maybe a Clinton loss will teach the DNC never to get behind a candidate with so many problems again. I don't have much against her, but she brought too much baggage to the table. It might not be possible to get Millennials on board.


@StatesPoll: Asking kindly if you could please stop posting that picture. I/we get it.
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