FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5

[NOVA Green]

Trump getting into the upper 40s means he's probably brought a good chunk of the wavering Republicans home and that his leads are from him getting a boost in support; can't just be blamed solely on lack of D enthusiasm.

It's a mix of both.... as I argued elsewhere Trump has been consolidating Republican base support and Clinton has seen some defection to 3rd Party candidates and/or LV models screening out some soft Clinton supporters (enthusiasm)..

Florida still looks to be a potential squeaker come November, and 3rd Party support is weaker there than many other "swing states".

Ohio--- There are still a large number of "persuadables" at 26% according to this poll, more so among "Trump could change mind" (9%)  and "Johnson could change mind" (8%) compared to "Clinton could change mind" (6%).  RV/LV models don't change much in this poll. FAV/UNFAV numbers look much worse for Clinton than Trump, and Obama approve-disapprove 48/49 is definitely a major cause of concern for Teamp Clinton. At this point it looks like OH is running 4-5 points to the Right of national polling, and Trump appears to have a small but significant edge at this point in the election.

[NOVA Green]

I, for one, welcome our new Trump overlords.

Knew you would come around! We're gonna put you in the biggest, classiest home in the tallest tower we build with really elegant lighting. If you're lucky, you may even get the side facing The Wall!

So is the wall to keep us from leaving for sunnier climes South of the Border, or to keep all of the "undesirables" out.

[NOVA Green]

Even on the CNN map, Clinton is at 273 with Virginia, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. So Trump could win here and Ohio and still easily lose.

Nevada looking a bit iffy for Clinton despite in theory some positive recent electoral history and demographics.

[NOVA Green]

You go ahead let these polls boost your heads up. It's going to be a dramatically hard fall on election day. This man will never win these states. If Romney couldn't pull it off, how can Trump?

Economic Protectionism/ Isolationism and also blurring the lines when it comes to the Neo-Liberal shock therapy fiscal agenda of the Rep House/Senate leadership gutting (Social Security, spending, health care, etc...)

[NOVA Green]

You go ahead let these polls boost your heads up. It's going to be a dramatically hard fall on election day. This man will never win these states. If Romney couldn't pull it off, how can Trump?

Lack of enthusiasm among Dems

Seems to me like there is plenty considering who is on the ballot. As 2012 showed, plenty of people showed up who no one every thought who show up.

Obama was running for reelection....

[NOVA Green]

Wow!!!

Just ran to the store for a few minutes, and it looks like overall today has likely seen the biggest wave of posts on the polling thread in at least four years....

There is a whole lot of Red avatar freakout, Blue avatar crowing, and "I told you so" going on here.

That all being said, what has happened in the past few weeks boils down to this:

1.) Contrary to Media/Atlas/CW Trump has been able to consolidate the Republican base in the past few weeks to a normal GE level of Republican support. This accounts for the significant improvement in Trump numbers not only in the National Polls, but also in key swing states (OH/FL/WI) in particular. Additionally, it looks like AZ and GA are shifting to a point that are moving them almost out of range for Clinton, regardless of ground game or an air war strategy.

2.) Clinton's core weakness has always been the Millennials, which is the one core Obama coalition constituency that she has had major issues with from way back in the early primaries/caucuses. The fact that she is significantly under-performing Obama numbers and margins, with the largest age defined demographic in America, is a major drag not just in her national polling numbers, but even more significantly in her swing-state polling numbers.

3.) Clinton has done much to reach out to Bernie primary supporters, both by Co-opting many of his Progressive policy platforms during the primary season, adopting and providing significant concessions towards the DNC platform prior to the convention, and has managed to recapture the vast majority of Bernie Primary voters/supporters > 40 years.

4.) Clinton has greater room to grow than Trump in both national and swing-state polls, however she has done virtually nothing to push core aspects of the Bernie Millennial coalition from environmental issues, student loan reform, Dreamer Act, Marijuana Policy Reform, and regulation of Wall street.

5.) The attempt to portray Trump as a racist bigot is clearly not working with persuadable White/Anglo voters at this point. She has already captured a significant chunk of White College educated voters over a certain age in key suburban regions (Philly 'Burbs/ NoVA) etc.... Her media strategy focusing on "Trump the crazy" has already maxed out. She needs to shift to a new strategy focusing on what she will do for us (Not a Millennial but.... ) to bring the Goods back to the Hood. Basically, focus on a base turnout strategy, rather than trying to peel off a few Republicans here and there, and actually make a real argument for Millennials as to why they should vote for her and not Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

Just like Gore in 2000 this is Hillary's race to lose.... and for all the Clintonistas out there, don't blame me I voted for Bernie.

[NOVA Green]

5.) The attempt to portray Trump as a racist bigot is clearly not working with persuadable White/Anglo voters at this point. She has already captured a significant chunk of White College educated voters over a certain age in key suburban regions (Philly 'Burbs/ NoVA) etc.... Her media strategy focusing on "Trump the crazy" has already maxed out. She needs to shift to a new strategy focusing on what she will do for us (Not a Millennial but.... ) to bring the Goods back to the Hood. Basically, focus on a base turnout strategy, rather than trying to peel off a few Republicans here and there, and actually make a real argument for Millennials as to why they should vote for her and not Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

Has Clinton even mentioned Johnson or Stein? Or been questioned about their candidacies?

Good question... I can't recall a single incident of either, and by virtue of a position where I was able to work remotely, have been able to obsessively follow  the cable news outlets and forum.

Also, I am struggling to recall any post-convention speeches where she called out primary campaign policies, nor Democratic Party platform decisions, that she supported during the primary season, which would actually appeal to Millennial Voters.

At this point, considering the tightening of the race and the lack of discussion about core Millennial issues for the past two months, I really think she has little choice but to focus on more of a base strategy and outreach to what should be considering support for Obama and Millennial disgust with Trump, should be a solid core constituency for her that could easily add +1-2% in her national numbers, and likely even higher in several swing-states.

Also, whatever happened to a $12/Hr minimum wage with $15/Hr in more expensive Metro areas (Dem primary season)? This should be gold standard in OH/WI/IA and even in other places like MO/GA/AZ/NV.... etc.......

Voters don't forget and it's time to start throwing out the red meat in terms of actual support for policy changes and not just beating up on the dude with higher unfavorables....

[NOVA Green]

Some millennials like Clinton, some don't. The crazy rabid SJWs may go for Stein, or not vote, but who cares about their opinion. They've already done a lot of damage to the academic image of America.

Clinton's health is hurting her in the polls. The Lower Manhattan September 11th anniversary episode did not help at one bit.

Millennials--some of them are too idealistic. You can't always get what you want. Ending TPP would be a good thing, but they shouldn't care about TPP because most of them won't join public sector unions.

Most millennials don't vote, so who cares? Some of them are so Zinnified they think that America is a horrible place. Leave the country then. Live in North Korea and Iran if you hate "white colonialism and corporations". They think that things come free. They don't understand work (some of them). Money don't grow on trees. Sanders would have been DESTROYED by Trump. You would hear "commie, commie" from Giuliani and Christie day after day.

The polls are tightening, and Ohio and Florida will be close on Election Day. Clinton will most likely win millennial voters, but they don't vote so much. Most Americans don't care for millennials, they haven't produced in the economy yet.

I am not a Millennial, actually in my private sector career would likely fall into the "Job Creator" category considering that I was a Senior Hiring Manager, pushed and won significant expansion of business services (and associated FTEs) to our major corporate client.

However I do need to defend the Millennial Generation in certain areas:

1.) The reality is that the Millennial generation has suffered the most from the elective wars overseas, Iraq in particular. I lost a friend in Iraq back in '04 outside of Taji, seen a close friend's boyfriend go back to Iraq for his 3rd tour in the USMC (Falluja 2.0), had my son-in-law suffer a permanent disability that sent him into a coma for a week, as a result of an allergic reaction to the vaccine cocktail injected a week before he was to deploy to Afghanistan back in 2010.

2.) The Millennial generation also suffered heavily as a result of the economic collapse of the Great Recession in terms of overall debt, home ownership, and lack of jobs that were more likely to go to unemployed from generations with much more work experience and background.

3.) The Millennial generation has the worst prospects of any generation in modern American History, when it comes to the future of the American Dream. Obama has been the only President that they remember, other than the extreme failure of the George W. administration on foreign and economic policy.

If Clinton wants any chance of winning this election, she needs to pivot back to the base, and get down and pray to God that she hasn't already pushed away so many Democratic Primary voters by running away from core promises and pledges she made in the primaries.

[NOVA Green]

4.) Clinton has greater room to grow than Trump in both national and swing-state polls, however she has done virtually nothing to push core aspects of the Bernie Millennial coalition from environmental issues, student loan reform, Dreamer Act, Marijuana Policy Reform, and regulation of Wall street.

It really is disappointing to see how much she is trying to win over some Republicans, even going so far as to wrangle up endorsements from Bush administration officials that liberals hate, all for basically nothing. It's not helping her and I don't understand why her campaign doesn't see this.

My thoughts are that she has been leading for so long that her campaign has gotten complacent and put most of its effort into branching out instead of digging deep. If she is losing in the polls long enough, I imagine she will put a lot of effort into winning over Millennials. Would that be an unreasonable assumption? It just doesn't make sense not to.

Maybe her campaign's research has found that there is basically no way to win Millennials over? If so, she might be in trouble if things don't change. I don't know, maybe a Clinton loss will teach the DNC never to get behind a candidate with so many problems again. I don't have much against her, but she brought too much baggage to the table. It might not be possible to get Millennials on board.


@StatesPoll: Asking kindly if you could please stop posting that picture. I/we get it.

I think she has too much time trying to nail down Trump on his high Unfavs, which was already established, instead of presenting a strong argument about why voters should support her.

The more I think about it, the complacency argument appears to be the fundamental strategic mistake of the campaign, going back even to the primaries.

Americans love a fighter, an insurgent challenger, and Clinton realized halfway through the Primary season that it was better to shift to a populist platform.... I am afraid she is making that same mistake in the GE, whereas Trump has honed his skills from the Primaries and realized that there is a balance between being the insurgent challenger and also being acceptable for Moderate and Independent voters in swing states.

I don't know if the Millennials are gone when it comes to base expansion for Clinton, however that generation values authenticity above all, which is a major part of the reason that Johnson is polling crazy numbers with that age group.

[NOVA Green]

If this holds true Trump is a Virginia or a PA away from Presidency which is scary. I think the Delusional Hillary fans have to take responsibility for the damage a Trump presidency will do when you nominate someone with this much baggage who most Americans consider a lier or dishonest & who has flip flopped in every thing.

I am not happy with Trump winning. This guy has the temperament of a spoiled brat, you can praise n ridicule him n get him to change major views. The damage he will do to Climate change with indiscriminate drilling will be irreversible & the future of the planet is at stake, not to add that there will be more racial tensions, more violent tendencies n these politics of hatred.

Some facts about the polls -

Hillary is leading among Registered Voters or tied but falls behind in Likely voters - Why?

I think it is due to a low millennial turnout & enthusiasm gap. It is difficult to command 30 year old guys without a good job or who lost a limb in Iraq to vote for Hillary just because Trump is a threat. You have to appeal to them, inspire them n focus on the issues.

Sanders hammered on Free College, Marijuana, Climate Change, Healthcare, Infra Spending & Trade Agreements time n again n people got the message he cared.

Clinton has not said a word about the 15$ Minimum Wage or the Dakota pipeline after DNC Convention. Those are big issues. If only she could have said she wants a cultural impact on native Americans or further studies if there are environmental concerns would have really appealed to people. She has forgotten the Progressive votes & has taken it for granted. It is ironical that Trump is proposing maternity leave.

She has got 1 Scam after the other from Clinton Foundation to classified emails, etc. And she is not reaching out. This is what Bernie said time n again - Make an effort to reach out.

She is courting Bush donors & Republicans when she is getting 3-5% of the GOP as every Republican seems to hate her. This was a blunder of a strategy.

I also think she is doing very bad among White Women - In this poll Trump is only doing marginally worse among White women than men - She can't reply on Minority & especially Minority women to boost her members.

I am also circumspect about the debate because Clinton was not good in the NBC Townhall & Trump made ridiculous statements but was way better as in he found a way to string together his narrative. Look at the ex - I got Intelligence brief & I couldn't believe Obama didn't follow X or Y. No1 knows what he heard & no1 can cross-check. He likely lied but was clever in the way he used it. The guy is a master manipulator - Look at the way he said 22% are dying & not 20% & see the expression change of the girl as if Trump cares.

Trump maybe lying n saying outrageous stuff but he looks more authentic n is a master manipulator of all these. I think he will do well in debates.

Clinton has to do better n deliver in a way that is not robotic

As much as I dislike Hillary, she has to win, there is no other choice.

Shadows--- although the formatting of your post was somewhat hard on the eyes to read on my small laptop, these are similar to some statements that I made elsewhere on the board.

In particular, I solidly agree with your statements regarding Clinton not addressing Millennial issues in the Post-Convention era, and not giving them a reason to vote for her instead of voting Anti-Trump with a 3rd Party protest vote.

In particular, I think the minimum wage and environmental arguments can both appeal to Millennials and Moderate "Swing Voters / Persuadables".

We all know that Clinton is not the best when it comes to public speaking/likability, almost having kind of a Gore "Wonk" type personality. That being said, I think she will do well in the debates, assuming the MSM doesn't give Trump such low expectations where he "under promises and over delivers" where he is coronated as the winner of the first debate.