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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  VA: University of Mary Washington, Clinton +3
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Author Topic: VA: University of Mary Washington, Clinton +3  (Read 1836 times)
JRoby
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« on: September 15, 2016, 09:45:59 am »

https://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2016/09/UMW-VA-Survey-2016_First-Release-Topline.pdf

September 6-12:

LVs:
Clinton 40
Trump 37
Johnson 8
Stein 1
McMullin 1
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JRoby
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2016, 09:48:55 am »

Clinton is also up 46-41 in the H2H
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2016, 09:49:22 am »

VA is off the map.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2016, 09:49:31 am »

Img


not bad!

Cheesy
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2016, 09:50:12 am »

those VA polls are also all over the place.....would be the strangest of all places for a trump surge.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2016, 09:51:20 am »

those VA polls are also all over the place.....would be the strangest of all places for a trump surge.

If his gains are with educated whites, then, no, it would be among the most logical. But it's unwinnable for a Republican at this point.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2016, 09:51:41 am »

I think Trump's absolute best-case scenario here is losing by the same margin as Gillespie. The state is not winnable for the GOP.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2016, 10:02:39 am »

Img


not bad!

Cheesy

Lmaooooooo
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2016, 10:11:41 am »

If Trump wins Virginia, he's already won the election.



What the map probably looks like if Virginia is tied on Election Night
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JRoby
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2016, 10:13:45 am »

one possibly scary fact about this poll for Ds to consider, most of it was done before Hillary's 9/11 health scare.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2016, 10:58:51 am »

If Trump wins Virginia, he's already won the election.



What the map probably looks like if Virginia is tied on Election Night

Lol no
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2016, 11:09:08 am »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/776449568560951297

Nate Cohn of NYT Upshot says there's no defense of basically *only* including self-reported 12 vote.

Their likely vote screen excludes anyone that didn't vote in 2012, including young people.

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2016, 11:45:56 am »

Superb news for Trump. VA is probably most to the left of nation of all swing states Smiley
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 03:21:44 pm »

Superb news for Trump. VA is probably most to the left of nation of all swing states Smiley

Of the four most recent polls of Virginia, PPP was the only one not to find Clinton barely leading in the low single digits. Given that, I'm honestly starting to think that poll was an outlier.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2016, 03:30:24 pm »

Superb news for Trump. VA is probably most to the left of nation of all swing states Smiley

Of the four most recent polls of Virginia, PPP was the only one not to find Clinton barely leading in the low single digits. Given that, I'm honestly starting to think that poll was an outlier.
It seems like PPP has lately gone a bit more D. But they polled    SEP. 9-11, before/during Hillary showed who she really is.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 03:39:21 pm »

It seems like PPP has lately gone a bit more D. But they polled    SEP. 9-11, before/during Hillary showed who she really is.

There's also the fact that, statistically speaking, they will produce a bad poll every once in a while. So yeah, I'm feeling very confident in saying Virginia is pure tossup right now.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 04:07:18 pm »

I'm not sure about the veracity of this pollster....

It's a Uni poll, but they are based out of Virginia, so maybe there's a bit of an offset there.

I'd have to think VA is actually more like Clinton +5-6% considering what we have seen in other national and statewide polls (Especially NC polls).
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Ebsy
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 04:28:45 pm »

It seems like PPP has lately gone a bit more D. But they polled    SEP. 9-11, before/during Hillary showed who she really is.

There's also the fact that, statistically speaking, they will produce a bad poll every once in a while. So yeah, I'm feeling very confident in saying Virginia is pure tossup right now.

Always nice to see someone err terribly in their logic.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2016, 04:54:23 pm »

Always nice to see someone err terribly in their logic.

Please enlighten me into how I am wrong in saying every polling company will produce a bad poll at some point in their career.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2016, 10:59:06 am »

Even at a bad point in Hillary Clinton's polling, Virginia still suggests a narrow lead for her.
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