Axiom Strategies Swing Counties September 2016
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Author Topic: Axiom Strategies Swing Counties September 2016  (Read 1624 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: September 15, 2016, 10:40:26 AM »

https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/776441023819948033
http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/



Jefferson CO: Clinton +2 (Trump +1)
Hillsborough FL: Trump +1 (Trump +3)
Washoe NV: Trump +17 (Trump +12)
Watauga NC: Trump +8 (Trump +7)
Sandusky OH: Trump +7 (Trump +11)
Luzerne PA: Trump +15 (Trump +23)
Loudoun VA: Clinton +2 (Clinton +3)

new counties reported
Hamilton OH: Clinton +1
Northampton PA: Trump +8
Door WI: Clinton +9
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2016, 10:44:16 AM »

Interesting that Trump's below many of his post-Comey high marks, but this is before the 911 pneumonia thing. Definitely worth tracking counties like this
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2016, 10:45:03 AM »

That's a really good lead in Door County.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2016, 10:46:31 AM »

That's a really good lead in Door County.

That's typically pretty swingy Green Bay Area, yes?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2016, 10:46:55 AM »

The PA and NV margins look way off in favour of Trump.

Unless he's running up the margins in the rural areas, while Hillary does better in the urban areas.

But still, these numbers would suggest that Trump easily wins PA.

NV not so much, if there's good turnout for Hillary in Clark County.

The numbers also suggest that Trump leads in OH.

VA and CO are swing states (or lean Hillary) according to the county numbers, WI is safe Hillary.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2016, 10:48:11 AM »

That's a really good lead in Door County.

Obama only won Door by 7 in 2012. If Clinton is up 9...

Still, of all the Wisconsin counties to poll, you pick Door? Why not Racine or Outagamie?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2016, 10:48:36 AM »

That's a really good lead in Door County.

That's typically pretty swingy Green Bay Area, yes?

Yeah, Obama won it by 7 in 2012 when he carried the state by the same margin.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2016, 10:51:33 AM »

That's a really good lead in Door County.

Obama only won Door by 7 in 2012. If Clinton is up 9...

Still, of all the Wisconsin counties to poll, you pick Door? Why not Racine or Outagamie?

I guess they saw an... opening.

Smiley
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2016, 11:28:49 AM »

Would suggest that PA is more winnable for Trump than WI. Hmm...

We haven't had a good PA poll in a while
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2016, 11:31:25 AM »

https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/776441023819948033
http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/



Jefferson CO: Clinton +2 (Trump +1)
Hillsborough FL: Trump +1 (Trump +3)
Washoe NV: Trump +17 (Trump +12)
Watauga NC: Trump +8 (Trump +7)
Sandusky OH: Trump +7 (Trump +11)
Luzerne PA: Trump +15 (Trump +23)
Loudoun VA: Clinton +2 (Clinton +3)

new counties reported
Hamilton OH: Clinton +1
Northampton PA: Trump +8
Door WI: Clinton +9

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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2016, 11:45:22 AM »

LOL at Washoe. Also the PA numbers look a bit too favorable for Trump.
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Absolution9
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2016, 12:07:21 PM »

The PA and NV margins look way off in favour of Trump.

Unless he's running up the margins in the rural areas, while Hillary does better in the urban areas.

But still, these numbers would suggest that Trump easily wins PA.

NV not so much, if there's good turnout for Hillary in Clark County.

The numbers also suggest that Trump leads in OH.

VA and CO are swing states (or lean Hillary) according to the county numbers, WI is safe Hillary.

Not sure that's true, many polls have shown Trump flipping NE PA (and the Erie PA area) for the first time in generations, its overwhelmingly blue collar white, but he loses it back in the Philadelphia suburbs which Romney lost by 10-15 and some polls show him losing by twice that.

This race will be decided by turnout for non-college educated whites.  Historically it has been vastly below turnout for college educated whites, for instance 55/45 was the split in 2012 when it should be more like 68/32 based on national population.  If the split goes to something like 60/40-62/38, Trump will have a chance to win if not he is finished.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2016, 12:13:28 PM »

Chester would probably be a better county for PA.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 12:18:31 PM »

Chester would probably be a better county for PA.

Agreed. Those #s would be telling
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2016, 12:27:14 PM »

Hillsborough County has a relatively high population percentage as Latino (25% and only 1/5 of them are Cubans).  For Trump to be ahead when Obama won by 6.7% in 2012 in a county with this sort of demographic seems to indicate that either Trump is doing better among Latinos in FL or there was a polarization of the White vote toward Trump or both.   
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Spark
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 12:31:28 PM »

Washoe & Hillsborough!
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jaichind
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 12:57:35 PM »


Well, Luzerne and Northampton of PA according to this poll will experience pro-GOP swings of 20% and 13% respectively from 2012.  I think this sort of swing might be a reaction to the electoral domination of Philadelphia in previous elections.  I think in PA counties like Bucks, Montgomery, and Delaware will be decisive on if these sort of swings and bring PA closer to Trump.
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 01:59:30 PM »

That's a really good lead in Door County.

Obama only won Door by 7 in 2012. If Clinton is up 9...

Still, of all the Wisconsin counties to poll, you pick Door? Why not Racine or Outagamie?

Because Door County is a state PVI bellwether county.  Racine and Outagamie are about 2 points more Republican than the state.

In fact, every single one of the counties they chose except Hillsborough, FL and Hamilton, OH are PVI bellwethers in their states with state PVIs less than D/R+1.   And Hillsborough and Hamilton are national PVI bellwethers, so they should tell us something about the state of the national race.

They picked good counties.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2016, 02:17:41 PM »

That's a really good lead in Door County.

Obama only won Door by 7 in 2012. If Clinton is up 9...

Still, of all the Wisconsin counties to poll, you pick Door? Why not Racine or Outagamie?

Because Door County is a state PVI bellwether county.  Racine and Outagamie are about 2 points more Republican than the state.

In fact, every single one of the counties they chose except Hillsborough, FL and Hamilton, OH are PVI bellwethers in their states with state PVIs less than D/R+1.   And Hillsborough and Hamilton are national PVI bellwethers, so they should tell us something about the state of the national race.

They picked good counties.

So a very tight race. Interesting these showed trend towards C , then, considering dynamics of last few weeks
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2016, 02:20:54 PM »

LOL at Washoe. Also the PA numbers look a bit too favorable for Trump.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/776482925709627393
Jon Ralston Nevada expert has seen polls where Trump is up a few points max in Washoe, despite what this robopoll shows.
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Shufford1
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« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2016, 02:42:28 PM »

As a native and resident of Watauga County, NC, it seems like a terrible choice as a bellwether. Using PVI and the fact that it went for Obama in 2008 and Romney 2012 ignores the county's unique demographic dynamics. The county skews incredibly young and incredibly white. College students make up around a third of population. Clinton clearly isn't inspiring the youth turnout like Obama. If you remove college students from the equation, the county is probably near 99% white. I will also note that the local GOP has been active in suppressing the youth vote by attempting to limit early voting and closing polling sites on the campus of Appalachian State. I could easily see a situation in which the county trends R, but the state of North Carolina trends D.
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cinyc
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« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2016, 02:50:53 PM »

As a native and resident of Watauga County, NC, it seems like a terrible choice as a bellwether. Using PVI and the fact that it went for Obama in 2008 and Romney 2012 ignores the county's unique demographic dynamics. The county skews incredibly young and incredibly white. College students make up around a third of population. Clinton clearly isn't inspiring the youth turnout like Obama. If you remove college students from the equation, the county is probably near 99% white. I will also note that the local GOP has been active in suppressing the youth vote by attempting to limit early voting and closing polling sites on the campus of Appalachian State. I could easily see a situation in which the county trends R, but the state of North Carolina trends D.

It is Watauga County's not-so-unique demographics that make it a bellwether.  Quite a few counties with mid-sized universities make it onto the bellwether list because the youth vote offsets the rest of the county.  You don't need to have a precise racial breakdown identical to the state to predict the state average.  In fact, due to racially polarized voting, those counties might not be the most representative, anyway.

Wautuga isn't the best bellwether for North Carolina due to its trend from 2008 to 2012, but it is one.  Other counties had smaller trends, but some are also smaller than Watauga, perhaps making them harder to poll.
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