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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
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Author Topic: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8  (Read 2887 times)
Maxwell
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« Reply #25 on: September 15, 2016, 12:26:54 pm »

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Spark
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« Reply #26 on: September 15, 2016, 12:30:06 pm »

Wow that's crazy
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Shadows
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« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2016, 12:42:48 pm »

Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2016, 12:46:22 pm »

Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!

Yeah...or CO or NH.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #29 on: September 15, 2016, 12:50:45 pm »

Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!

Nobody respects Bernie Sanders. He won't help
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Shadows
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« Reply #30 on: September 15, 2016, 12:57:55 pm »

Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!

Yeah...or CO or NH.

CO looks difficult, I think it will be the next blue state similar to NM. I don't see CO in play. Even NH should not be in play but I think Trump will be strong in New England, Maine & NH, he will do better than most Republicans.

Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!

Nobody respects Bernie Sanders. He won't help

Sanders has already campaigned 2ce for Hillary in NH. And he is campaigning for Maggie Hassan in NH as well to wrest Kelly Ayotte's seat. I think Obama will campaign in NH as well.
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Fuzzy Stands With Sanchez!
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« Reply #31 on: September 15, 2016, 01:35:32 pm »

Iowa should be nothing less than Likely R at this point, if it wasn't already. Interesting that this is a state where the local GOP establishment has strongly gotten behind Yrump, more so than any other GOP-controlled state

That ought to send some local and state Republicans a message, eh?
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Kempros
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« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2016, 01:51:20 pm »

Way too early to make a call in this race but Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Maine seem to be moving right while North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Virginia seem to be moving left. History can't be easily predicted, however, that is the way it looks this year.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2016, 02:19:53 pm »

Iowa should be nothing less than Likely R at this point, if it wasn't already. Interesting that this is a state where the local GOP establishment has strongly gotten behind Yrump, more so than any other GOP-controlled state

That ought to send some local and state Republicans a message, eh?

Well, depends. They moved to him much earlier than anyone else and Branstad has great org here. Iowa IS also trending right if you take 2014 into consideration and this is the kind of Obama state whose demos should favor Trump.

Still doubt he wins by 8, but he's the favorite here.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #34 on: September 15, 2016, 02:31:03 pm »

Monmouth is a good pollster and all, but aren't we calling this one a bit too soon? This is one poll, and other polls have shown a much closer race, not to mention we're in the height of a Trump surge.

The mental jujitsu is strong with this one.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #35 on: September 15, 2016, 03:17:26 pm »

538 adjusted this to Trump +9
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #36 on: September 15, 2016, 03:25:49 pm »

She's in big, big trouble at the moment. I don't know if it'll last but there's no reason to pretend otherwise.

Either way the (R) swing in Iowa is going to be ridiculous this year.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #37 on: September 15, 2016, 03:27:43 pm »
« Edited: September 15, 2016, 03:30:16 pm by #TheShadowyAbyss »

So what's up with the Clinton collapse and Trump surge  right now?
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #38 on: September 15, 2016, 03:30:30 pm »

538 adjusted this to Trump +9

The fact Iowa is going to be almost double digits to the right of Virginia is incredible, considering how different it was as recently as 2004.
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Kempros
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« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2016, 03:42:17 pm »

Well, it may look the Colorado may go back as a tossup. Not sure how credible.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b53ca6b673c14cdab9d68832bd7e74cb.pdf
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #40 on: September 15, 2016, 03:48:40 pm »

Commence rotating primary order.

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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #41 on: September 15, 2016, 03:55:43 pm »

Iowa was always going to be difficult for Hillary to win--dating back to her 3rd place finish in the 2008 caucus.  Trump is benefiting from a unified Republican establishment and a substantial evangelical vote.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2016, 03:59:36 pm »

At this point it looks like Iowa is really starting to slip away from Clinton as a possibility....

One starts to wonder if it's getting to the point of considering pulling resources from here unless Clinton starts moving back to a 4-5% national lead.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #43 on: September 15, 2016, 04:43:54 pm »

https://youtu.be/4i89SKgfKUU?t=26
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #44 on: September 16, 2016, 11:41:00 am »

Bad! But size sample is relaitively small. The fake billionaire may be up one or two at this very moment. No reason to panic.
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Representative Carpetbagger
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« Reply #45 on: September 16, 2016, 11:55:50 am »

Doubt it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #46 on: September 16, 2016, 10:29:04 pm »

But I;m not counting on Iowa continuing as likely D indefinitely. I see signs that Iowa is beginning to look politically more like another state whose name begins with I and ends in an A. Iowa voted in Joni Ernst.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #47 on: September 16, 2016, 10:32:54 pm »

i was baffled sincw years that a rural, white, religious state like iowa was at the same time so dem-friendly....trump is in my opinion a slayer of contradictions.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #48 on: September 16, 2016, 11:16:19 pm »

i was baffled sincw years that a rural, white, religious state like iowa was at the same time so dem-friendly....trump is in my opinion a slayer of contradictions.
3 words: Reagan(ism) screwed farmers.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #49 on: September 17, 2016, 01:24:25 am »

Bad! But size sample is relaitively small. The fake billionaire may be up one or two at this very moment. No reason to panic.

Even during the Clinton surge back in August, he had the state tied or held a slight lead. Since that time, the polls have consistently shown him establishing a lead and increasing upon it. Personal incredulity at the fact Iowa is trending very Republican does not change this.
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