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Author Topic: GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4  (Read 1310 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: September 15, 2016, 01:25:40 pm »

https://twitter.com/Opinion_Savvy/status/776486657616932864
http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/09/15/poll-trump-pulls-ahead-in-ga/
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/OS-GA-General-9.15.16.pdf
Trump - 46% (43)
Clinton - 42% (43)
Johnson - 10% (11)

Clinton does better among 30-44 (53-30) than she does 18-29 (44-30).

Among whites, she has 26 to 58, a gap of only 32! Obama generally trailed by 50, and most polls had her -40....

Trump leads by getting 22% of the black vote.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 01:29:18 pm by HillOfANight »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2016, 01:26:32 pm »

So Trump is doing as well in OH as GA, and IA will be four points to the right of GA? lol
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I think Saccone has this. Remaining precincts in Allegheny are only slightly pro-Lamb.
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2016, 01:27:39 pm »

So Trump is doing as well in OH as GA, and IA will be four points to the right of GA? lol

Not surprising, given GA's demographics.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2016, 01:27:58 pm »

Someone send Obama to GA!
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2016, 01:29:07 pm »

Someone send Obama to GA!
He's not really liked there
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2016, 01:29:34 pm »

So Trump is doing as well in OH as GA, and IA will be four points to the right of GA? lol

IA has been further to the right than it has been in our life times. I'm not sure if there's a lack of youth there to move it to the left?  I've noticed them in particular being further to the right than normal this year.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2016, 01:31:23 pm »


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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2016, 01:32:30 pm »

rofl lmao the state of Iowa is even more of a clown state.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2016, 01:34:35 pm »

Georgia polls have historically overestimated dems so this lead probably is double digits, also they didn't poll in spanish or german
#nevada
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2016, 01:35:04 pm »

Someone send Obama to GA!
He's not really liked there
?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/georgia-obama-job-approval
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/07/ajc-poll-barack-obamas-surprisingly-high-approval-rating-in-georgia/

Poll after poll has shown his approval to be surprisingly high, relative to the fact that this is a red state. He's not after the deplorables, he would be here for the base that does approve.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2016, 01:36:27 pm »

Oh, boy. They unskew A pollsters as Monmouth, CNN and SurveyUSA, but gladly take a C- (worse than Rasmus) pollster as long as they like the results.

Red hacks, so hacks Smiley

Even though GA will probably be near IA Cheesy
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2016, 01:45:20 pm »

Here is another state that if Trump wins, the next Democratic president will carry.
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2016, 01:47:29 pm »

So Clinton is running 8 points ahead of Barksdale in Georgia.  That is a very good sign for her prospects in North Carolina.
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 01:48:16 pm »

Here is another state that if Trump wins, the next Democratic president will carry.

Aside from 2000 and 2004 where Gore and Kerry performed poorly in the south, when has GA been that far to the right?  Prior to Bush it wasn't very red either.  Democrats talk about GA and AZ like Republicans talk about MI and MN.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2016, 02:04:06 pm »

A bit closer than I expected, but reasonable.  There seems to be a tremendous lack of enthusiasm for both candidates here (specifically conservative, well-educated north Atlanta suburbs).
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 02:13:17 pm »

I'm just more curious of States that have not yet really been polled, such as MN, RI, NJ, MS, NM, and CO. Not been much polls recently from these states and would be interesting to see results if the national race is a dead heat, and republican states are less republican then normal.
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 02:35:36 pm »

If Trump is getting 22% of the black vote, this is a record number for him then. He has huge potential upside in the white vote & I think he will consolidate & get a bigger victory.

I am not convinced about this agency, noway is the racist getting 22% of the black vote!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 03:04:35 pm »

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/GAPolls/GA160906/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Georgia_Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables%20of%20Adults%20and%20Registered%20Voters_September%202016.pdf#page=2
He got 3% in NBC Marist, and 2% in CBS YouGov.
https://www.scribd.com/document/321143715/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Georgia-August-14-2016#from_embed
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Devils30
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2016, 03:11:23 pm »

If Georgia is within 5, NC and FL are probably blue. Of course none of the polls in this state right now exactly make sense.
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2016, 03:12:30 pm »

If Georgia is within 5, NC and FL are probably blue. Of course none of the polls in this state right now exactly make sense.

Georgia has always had Democrats polling better than they do.  Remember there's also 3 people running so some of the states might be a little closer than normal.
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« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2016, 03:16:37 pm »

Here is another state that if Trump wins, the next Democratic president will carry.

Aside from 2000 and 2004 where Gore and Kerry performed poorly in the south, when has GA been that far to the right?  Prior to Bush it wasn't very red either.  Democrats talk about GA and AZ like Republicans talk about MI and MN.
The two democratic Presidents before Obama were both Southerners, which is clear from their strength in states which would now be considered "hard R". GA, on the other hand, went from McCain+8 to Romney+8, even as the nation moved towards the Republicans. The Atlanta area, in particular, has trended D quickly.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2016, 04:09:32 pm »

Who keeps posting on the polling threads that causes the screen to stretch out?

Makes it harder to follow any thread where I need to scroll over back and forth just to read the posts!

That being said, GA numbers sound reasonable and consistent with what we have seen elsewhere.
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #22 on: September 15, 2016, 04:10:42 pm »

Here is another state that if Trump wins, the next Democratic president will carry.

Aside from 2000 and 2004 where Gore and Kerry performed poorly in the south, when has GA been that far to the right?  Prior to Bush it wasn't very red either.  Democrats talk about GA and AZ like Republicans talk about MI and MN.
The two democratic Presidents before Obama were both Southerners, which is clear from their strength in states which would now be considered "hard R". GA, on the other hand, went from McCain+8 to Romney+8, even as the nation moved towards the Republicans. The Atlanta area, in particular, has trended D quickly.

So it stayed the same in a four year span you're saying?  Trends don't go on forever.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #23 on: September 16, 2016, 08:30:57 am »

If Georgia is within 5, NC and FL are probably blue. Of course none of the polls in this state right now exactly make sense.

Georgia has always had Democrats polling better than they do.  Remember there's also 3 people running so some of the states might be a little closer than normal.

Stop with this lie. 2014 showed a close race in the summer that closed toward Perdue after she got barraged with ads tieing her to Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_mccain_vs_obama-596.html

2008 RCP final was McCain +4, ended up McCain +5.2. The September polls were McCain +13,18,16,11,8,8,6,7, and it ended up much closer.

2012 RCP Final was Romney +10, and he actually ended up with 7.8. The only September poll at the time had Romney +21.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #24 on: September 16, 2016, 08:41:35 am »

florida and georgia are special in some ways cause while latinos became quantitative (sheer numbers) and qualitative (willingness to vote) more important, the democratic party still lost even more whites/late-game dixiecrats which canceled out the process of purple-ification.

but if the influx of hispanics (through birth) holds steadily and the re-alignment of blue-collar and white-collar voters stays the same...which means, white-collar voters becoming more democratic even in the deep south) there should be a break even point reachable at least in georgia and florida, during the next 10 years or so.
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