Emerson Polls MO, ARk, CO, GA- Trump+13,+28,+4,+6
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  Emerson Polls MO, ARk, CO, GA- Trump+13,+28,+4,+6
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Author Topic: Emerson Polls MO, ARk, CO, GA- Trump+13,+28,+4,+6  (Read 5542 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #25 on: September 15, 2016, 03:17:02 PM »

If Trump can win IA/NV/CO, he doesn't need PA.

This is scary. My endorsement returns to Hillary for now. She needs every single vote.

Great to see this is causing the fascists to jump on the Hillary train! Splendid! Just terrific!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #26 on: September 15, 2016, 03:29:50 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2016, 03:36:41 PM by GeorgiaModerate »


This; but it's interesting to see GA so close with this methodolay, as well as in the other GA poll released today (T+5 T+4).  I'll predict now that the final margin in GA will be less than 3 points, though I think Trump does win the state.

And Kander+2 in conjunction with Trump+13 in MO?  Wow!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2016, 03:30:04 PM »

Not buying CO polls until QU polls it and Selzer for Iowa.
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« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2016, 03:33:54 PM »

COLORADO= Trump's "one more state"!!

Prior to this poll, it seemed like Trump had a really good shot at 266 votes, but was struggling to have that "one more state" to win:



He would have to win one of the green "tiny tilt D" states to win.  Now, this poll shows CO as reasonable, and maybe some of the others are as well.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #29 on: September 15, 2016, 03:35:50 PM »

With co, nv, ohio, Fl and iowa going trumps way...I'd say it is now his to lose.

He sucks but I guess this is what America wants.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #30 on: September 15, 2016, 03:35:53 PM »

Not buying CO polls until QU polls it and Selzer for Iowa.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #31 on: September 15, 2016, 03:37:43 PM »

With co, nv, ohio, Fl and iowa going trumps way...I'd say it is now his to lose.

He sucks but I guess this is what America wants.
Wow! You're basically a first Democrat here who respects democracy. Kudos!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2016, 03:44:32 PM »

Wow! You're basically a first Democrat here who respects democracy. Kudos!

Considering Trump has no respect for democratic institutions, this post is incredibly ironic.
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2016, 03:45:47 PM »

Wow! You're basically a first Democrat here who respects democracy. Kudos!

Considering Trump has no respect for democratic institutions, this post is incredibly ironic.

Do you support super delegates?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #34 on: September 15, 2016, 03:46:07 PM »

With co, nv, ohio, Fl and iowa going trumps way...I'd say it is now his to lose.

He sucks but I guess this is what America wants.

Don't get carried away by one Colorado poll.  Clinton is still the favorite there at this point.  And Florida is at best a tossup.

Trump has clearly had all the momentum in the last week, but we've seen big momentum swings both ways in this campaign.  There's a long way to go until Nov. 8. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: September 15, 2016, 03:48:42 PM »

Grassley is outperforming Trump which overstates his margin there.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #36 on: September 15, 2016, 03:50:29 PM »

With co, nv, ohio, Fl and iowa going trumps way...I'd say it is now his to lose.

He sucks but I guess this is what America wants.

Don't get carried away by one Colorado poll.  Clinton is still the favorite there at this point.  And Florida is at best a tossup.

Trump has clearly had all the momentum in the last week, but we've seen big momentum swings both ways in this campaign.  There's a long way to go until Nov. 8. 

Exactly. A month ago Clinton was in striking distance in SC, after all
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Kempros
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« Reply #37 on: September 15, 2016, 03:53:12 PM »

There seems like there is going to be many "new" Democratic states, and many "new" republican states this time. What a historic election cycle.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #38 on: September 15, 2016, 03:56:08 PM »

The Arkansas number seems a bit high for Trump.... relatively inelastic state with a high Dem floor and low ceiling.

I can buy the GA & MO numbers if you take a couple points off because of the automated landline only system that Emerson uses.

I'm extremely skeptical about the Colorado poll results, like most others have said we'll need to see more data to see how tight the race really is there.

National polling numbers are probably slightly favorable to Trump, since at this point it looks like really this is more like a Clinton +1-2% lead based on the overall polling consensus and statewide numbers.
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Kempros
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« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2016, 04:25:08 PM »

If Trump can win IA/NV/CO, he doesn't need PA.

This is scary. My endorsement returns to Hillary for now. She needs every single vote.

You were always going to vote for Clinton, we all knew that.

I'm a 20 year old college student that just moved to Texas from Minnesota and college is 50% cheaper compared to the community colleges, probably because in Minnesota you have to pay tuition for those who are on welfare. Minnesota needs a change for once. Clinton represents a lot of those who don't work and don't pay anything to this country.

Please reconsider.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #40 on: September 15, 2016, 04:28:04 PM »

Emerson was the worst pollster during the primary but apparently the posters here take every landline only junk they post as gospel.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #41 on: September 15, 2016, 04:34:22 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2016, 04:37:42 PM by pppolitics »

Trump is surging because he hasn't done anything too outrageous lately and expectations for him are so low.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2016, 04:36:23 PM »

Emerson was the worst pollster during the primary but apparently the posters here take every landline only junk they post as gospel.

I don't take Emerson as gospel, but when their polling numbers (GA and MO) actually are relatively similar to other polling organizations, I'll subtract/add a few points because of their antiquated polling model in an era, where many Americans, myself included, only have cellphones, and even then I won't answer the phone if I don't recognize the number, so without companies leaving a VM or even polling using a TM, I'll never be polled. I suspect that is the case for a huge proportion of the American public these days.
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #43 on: September 15, 2016, 04:38:36 PM »

If Trump can win IA/NV/CO, he doesn't need PA.

This is scary. My endorsement returns to Hillary for now. She needs every single vote.

You were always going to vote for Clinton, we all knew that.

I'm a 20 year old college student that just moved to Texas from Minnesota and college is 50% cheaper compared to the community colleges, probably because in Minnesota you have to pay tuition for those who are on welfare. Minnesota needs a change for once. Clinton represents a lot of those who don't work and don't pay anything to this country.

Please reconsider.

The more people realize it the better.  She's an Ivy League elitist funded by Goldman Sachs who thinks she has the right to dictate which healthcare plan people can buy. 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #44 on: September 15, 2016, 04:53:40 PM »

If Trump can win IA/NV/CO, he doesn't need PA.

This is scary. My endorsement returns to Hillary for now. She needs every single vote.

You were always going to vote for Clinton, we all knew that.

I'm a 20 year old college student that just moved to Texas from Minnesota and college is 50% cheaper compared to the community colleges, probably because in Minnesota you have to pay tuition for those who are on welfare. Minnesota needs a change for once. Clinton represents a lot of those who don't work and don't pay anything to this country.

Please reconsider.

I hope you like that state of the roads in Texas.... Wink

Probably not the best thread to discuss different methods of state funding for social services (Or lack thereof). I am a bit confused about your conflating community college tuition with "welfare" (Whatever exactly that means--- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment Insurance, SCHIPS, emergency food assistance "food stamps").

Be that as it may, we haven't yet seen any real polls from Minnesota and a ton of polls from Texas that show the race much closer than expected, which appear to indicate that Trump still has issues consolidating the Anglo College Educated voters in many states.

It does appear that there aren't enough of these voters in MO to make the state within a potential striking range for Clinton, but does appear to be a major factor in GA & CO.
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Xing
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« Reply #45 on: September 15, 2016, 04:56:57 PM »

Not surprised to see people eating up these results. Emerson is garbage, though.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #46 on: September 15, 2016, 04:57:12 PM »

Emerson was the worst pollster during the primary but apparently the posters here take every landline only junk they post as gospel.

So Ebsy---- do you think these numbers from MO are realistic based upon your statewide knowledge and sense on the ground?

I'm thinking these numbers from MO are relatively reasonable, and from the same poll that shows the DEM candidate for Senate +2% !

Has Trump consolidated support in the 'burbs of KC and Saint Louis, or is this more a Clinton collapse "downstate" like the Ozark regions/ Springfield, the "Southern Boot", "Farm Country"?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #47 on: September 15, 2016, 05:05:38 PM »

Emerson was the worst pollster during the primary but apparently the posters here take every landline only junk they post as gospel.
Stop lying, biatch!
Emerson is not the best poll, of course. It is just a average pollster. B rating with R+1.3 house effect according to 538.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #48 on: September 15, 2016, 05:06:52 PM »

Not surprised to see people eating up these results. Emerson is garbage, though.

Off by more than 4 points?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #49 on: September 15, 2016, 05:28:51 PM »

Note: Stein isn't on the ballot in GA, she's only available as a write-in.
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