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Author Topic: MO/GA/CO/AR-Emerson polls: Blunt in big trouble, other incumbents ahead  (Read 1412 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: September 15, 2016, 02:51:51 pm »

Missouri
42% Jason Kander (D)
40% Roy Blunt (R, inc.)

Georgia
48% Johnny Isakson (R, inc.)
32% Jim Barksdale (D)

Arkansas
44% John Boozman (R, inc.)
30% Conner Eldridge (D)

Colorado
46% Michael Bennet (D, inc.)
39% Darryl Glenn (R)

http://www.theecps.com/
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2016, 02:56:58 pm »

Why can't the GOP win statewide races in MO? Apparently, the DSCC now thinks that this race is a pure Tossup.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 03:00:38 pm by TN volunteer »Logged
Heisenberg
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2016, 03:17:17 pm »

Ooohhh crap. I was wrong, I think that I do need to start panicking about Missouri.
Why can't the GOP win statewide races in MO? Apparently, the DSCC now thinks that this race is a pure Tossup.
The Missouri GOP (along with its Colorado and Virginia counterparts) is one of the top 3 worst-run state Republican Parties. Meanwhile, expect them to pick up the AG and Treasurer seats, and maybe even the SoS seat, giving them 3 new potential statewide candidates, or 4 if the LG nominee wins. Looking back at old posts, I saw how many blue avatars were panicking about Kit Bond's retirement in 2010, and the red avatars were pumped about Missouri probably having 2 liberal female Democratic senators (Robin Carnahan was leading Blunt consistently in polls until around this time of the year in 2010).
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King Francis I
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2016, 03:18:36 pm »

Emerson is trash, so I'm not going to try to interpret these results.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2016, 03:24:17 pm »

Good news kander, koster spill over from Gov race😂
« Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 03:32:26 pm by Da-Jon »Logged
ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2016, 03:27:06 pm »

Umm... if Blunt runs 15 points behind Trump, he might actually have something to worry about.  All of the incumbents except Isakson are actually running well behind Trump in this poll, though Boozman is 100% safe.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2016, 03:28:23 pm »

Umm... if Blunt runs 15 points behind Trump, he might actually have something to worry about.  All of the incumbents except Isakson are actually running well behind Trump in this poll, though Boozman is 100% safe.

Yeah, people need to stop talking about coattails because they don't exist. Even if Trump wins MO by 15, Blunt could easily lose the Senate race.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2016, 03:29:06 pm »

Umm... if Blunt runs 15 points behind Trump, he might actually have something to worry about.  All of the incumbents except Isakson are actually running well behind Trump in this poll, though Boozman is 100% safe.

Well.. none of the Democratic Senate candidates in this poll called their opponents voters basket of deplorables.. so I expect this right now.

But I have seen evidence that Emerson is trash.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2016, 03:29:28 pm »

Ooohhh crap. I was wrong, I think that I do need to start panicking about Missouri.
Why can't the GOP win statewide races in MO? Apparently, the DSCC now thinks that this race is a pure Tossup.
The Missouri GOP (along with its Colorado and Virginia counterparts) is one of the top 3 worst-run state Republican Parties. Meanwhile, expect them to pick up the AG and Treasurer seats, and maybe even the SoS seat, giving them 3 new potential statewide candidates, or 4 if the LG nominee wins. Looking back at old posts, I saw how many blue avatars were panicking about Kit Bond's retirement in 2010, and the red avatars were pumped about Missouri probably having 2 liberal female Democratic senators (Robin Carnahan was leading Blunt consistently in polls until around this time of the year in 2010).

Well, Blunt took the lead as of January 19th, 2010 and he never lost his lead in the 2010 race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2010#Polling_2

I expect MO GOP to pick up Treasurer. Attorney General, I am not sold on either candidate yet. I think Koster and Carnahan both win the two highest posts. Secretary of State, I endorse Smith, but I am unsure who will win.

I also do not think the Missouri Republican Party is that badly run. Maybe relative to the advantages it has in the state (bible belt, very white, packed Democrats).


Oh, thanks for correcting me on the polls. Blunt opened in January 2009 with a consistent deficit, but came ahead much sooner than I originally thought. But I definitely saw a lot of old posts from 2009 where everyone was saying that Democrats would pick up the seat.
For Attorney General, most (of the very few polls) polls show Hawley ahead. I wish Schaefer won the primary, though. For LG, it should be close, I guess it will be a test of how powerful the Carnahan name is.
The Missouri Republican Party is pretty incompetent given the state's Republican lean, IMO. The 2012 elections really show it (Akin, blowing the very close SoS race).
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2016, 03:34:49 pm »

Nice to see Kander ahead; but it's Emerson so I still take it with a grain of salt and hope other pollsters look into this one.
Whoa, just checked your PM score, what's up with the blue avatar?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2016, 04:25:33 pm »

The Missouri result makes me even more suspicious of Emerson.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2016, 04:25:43 pm »

None of the incumbents are about 45? Not even Boozman? That's a bit surprising.

EDIT: Nevermind I thought the Isakson number was 43. Carry on.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2016, 04:27:29 pm »

The Missouri result makes me even more suspicious of Emerson.
[/quote

Roll call said Blunt is vulnerable
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 04:33:51 pm »

Emerson is trash and the pres numbers seem too harsh on clinton, but i want to believe the MO results so badly.....
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2016, 04:37:18 pm »

don't most polls have Bennett up 15 points?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 04:40:09 pm »

don't most polls have Bennett up 15 points?
Yeah he's beyond safe.
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 05:11:39 pm »

Blunt losing despite Trump being up by 13? I've said it once and I'll say it again: Emerson is junk. I'd lose to believe that Kander will massively overperform Hillary, but that's just not going to happen.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 05:18:34 pm »

So, even if we assume these results are accurate for MO, this is a state that tends to close hard for Republicans closer to ED, with a huge number of undecideds for this race.

The old cliche that "all politics are local" might well apply for MO. Has the Kander ad of assembling an   AR-15 blindfolded while challenging Blunt for not taking a position on background checks to keep assault weapons out of the hands of terrorists hit yet?

If this is working for Kander, it makes sense for Dems to push for responsible gun policy reform, and not going "Full Clinton" like in the primaries where she essentially alienated many rural/ small town gun owners and quite frankly appeared out-of-touch with the vast majority of gun owners that enjoy hunting, target practice and support reasonable policy reforms, but don't like to be stereotyped and demonized because of the 10% of gun owners that are "gun hoarders" and a bit nutty when it comes to "2nd Amendment Remedies".
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2016, 05:19:58 pm »

Blunt losing despite Trump being up by 13? I've said it once and I'll say it again: Emerson is junk. I'd lose to believe that Kander will massively overperform Hillary, but that's just not going to happen.

Emerson might be Junk, but...

Guns, Guns, Guns might pull. this out for Kander in an anti-incumbent year and the "Do Nothing Senate"
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