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  2016 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO/GA/CO/AR-Emerson polls: Blunt in big trouble, other incumbents ahead (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO/GA/CO/AR-Emerson polls: Blunt in big trouble, other incumbents ahead  (Read 1461 times)
Heisenberg
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« on: September 15, 2016, 03:17:17 pm »

Ooohhh crap. I was wrong, I think that I do need to start panicking about Missouri.
Why can't the GOP win statewide races in MO? Apparently, the DSCC now thinks that this race is a pure Tossup.
The Missouri GOP (along with its Colorado and Virginia counterparts) is one of the top 3 worst-run state Republican Parties. Meanwhile, expect them to pick up the AG and Treasurer seats, and maybe even the SoS seat, giving them 3 new potential statewide candidates, or 4 if the LG nominee wins. Looking back at old posts, I saw how many blue avatars were panicking about Kit Bond's retirement in 2010, and the red avatars were pumped about Missouri probably having 2 liberal female Democratic senators (Robin Carnahan was leading Blunt consistently in polls until around this time of the year in 2010).
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2016, 03:29:28 pm »

Ooohhh crap. I was wrong, I think that I do need to start panicking about Missouri.
Why can't the GOP win statewide races in MO? Apparently, the DSCC now thinks that this race is a pure Tossup.
The Missouri GOP (along with its Colorado and Virginia counterparts) is one of the top 3 worst-run state Republican Parties. Meanwhile, expect them to pick up the AG and Treasurer seats, and maybe even the SoS seat, giving them 3 new potential statewide candidates, or 4 if the LG nominee wins. Looking back at old posts, I saw how many blue avatars were panicking about Kit Bond's retirement in 2010, and the red avatars were pumped about Missouri probably having 2 liberal female Democratic senators (Robin Carnahan was leading Blunt consistently in polls until around this time of the year in 2010).

Well, Blunt took the lead as of January 19th, 2010 and he never lost his lead in the 2010 race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2010#Polling_2

I expect MO GOP to pick up Treasurer. Attorney General, I am not sold on either candidate yet. I think Koster and Carnahan both win the two highest posts. Secretary of State, I endorse Smith, but I am unsure who will win.

I also do not think the Missouri Republican Party is that badly run. Maybe relative to the advantages it has in the state (bible belt, very white, packed Democrats).


Oh, thanks for correcting me on the polls. Blunt opened in January 2009 with a consistent deficit, but came ahead much sooner than I originally thought. But I definitely saw a lot of old posts from 2009 where everyone was saying that Democrats would pick up the seat.
For Attorney General, most (of the very few polls) polls show Hawley ahead. I wish Schaefer won the primary, though. For LG, it should be close, I guess it will be a test of how powerful the Carnahan name is.
The Missouri Republican Party is pretty incompetent given the state's Republican lean, IMO. The 2012 elections really show it (Akin, blowing the very close SoS race).
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2016, 03:34:49 pm »

Nice to see Kander ahead; but it's Emerson so I still take it with a grain of salt and hope other pollsters look into this one.
Whoa, just checked your PM score, what's up with the blue avatar?
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