Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from November:

Vote share %:

37.8% PS (-1.1)
26.4% PSD (+2.4)
  9.1% BE (nc)
  7.7% CDS (-1.5)
  6.2% CDU (-1.2)
  9.7% Others/Invalid (+0.3)
  3.1% Undecided (+1.1)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

11.1 Catarina Martins (+1.3)
10.6 António Costa (-0.2)
10.4 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.7)
  8.5 Assunção Cristas (-0.3)
  6.9 Rui Rio (-1.4)

Preferred PM:

53.5% António Costa (-1.8 )
30.3% Rui Rio (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 9 and 12 November 2018. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do Portuguese people actually like bullfighting, or is it the domain of old people like in Spain?

[Mike88]

Do Portuguese people actually like bullfighting, or is it the domain of old people like in Spain?

Well, bullfighting is still relatively popular in Portugal. Although there isn't, i believe, numbers to prove it, common sense would say that younger people, particularly in urban/suburban areas, would be quite disinterested with bullfighting compared with older of middle age people. In rural areas, particularly in Alentejo, things may be different, but, this is just my understanding.

Now, and this can be proven with official numbers, bullfighting is gaining new spectators year after year. In 2017, there were 435,660 spectators in bullfighting events, meaning an average of 2,591 spectators by event, an increase of 9.1% compared with 2016.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do Portuguese people actually like bullfighting, or is it the domain of old people like in Spain?

Well, bullfighting is still relatively popular in Portugal. Although there isn't, i believe, numbers to prove it, common sense would say that younger people, particularly in urban/suburban areas, would be quite disinterested with bullfighting compared with older of middle age people. In rural areas, particularly in Alentejo, things may be different, but, this is just my understanding.

Now, and this can be proven with official numbers, bullfighting is gaining new spectators year after year. In 2017, there were 435,660 spectators in bullfighting events, meaning an average of 2,591 spectators by event, an increase of 9.1% compared with 2016.

Could the latter figure simply represent more disposable income rather than renewed interest in the fights?

[Mike88]

Do Portuguese people actually like bullfighting, or is it the domain of old people like in Spain?

Well, bullfighting is still relatively popular in Portugal. Although there isn't, i believe, numbers to prove it, common sense would say that younger people, particularly in urban/suburban areas, would be quite disinterested with bullfighting compared with older of middle age people. In rural areas, particularly in Alentejo, things may be different, but, this is just my understanding.

Now, and this can be proven with official numbers, bullfighting is gaining new spectators year after year. In 2017, there were 435,660 spectators in bullfighting events, meaning an average of 2,591 spectators by event, an increase of 9.1% compared with 2016.

Could the latter figure simply represent more disposable income rather than renewed interest in the fights?

It could also be a reason, no doubt. The fact people have more money in their pockets makes them more willing to go all type of events, bullfights included, and this whole bullfighting controversy is clearly inserted in the huge controversy about the tax rates for cultural, or other, events that the government proposes. But, there's also the view that the increase in bullfights events is a counterresponse, by the public, of the growing anti-bullfighting movement in Portugal.

[Lord Halifax]

Do Portuguese people actually like bullfighting, or is it the domain of old people like in Spain?

Well, bullfighting is still relatively popular in Portugal. Although there isn't, i believe, numbers to prove it, common sense would say that younger people, particularly in urban/suburban areas, would be quite disinterested with bullfighting compared with older of middle age people. In rural areas, particularly in Alentejo, things may be different, but, this is just my understanding.

Why do young people not like bullfighting?

[crals]

Do Portuguese people actually like bullfighting, or is it the domain of old people like in Spain?

Well, bullfighting is still relatively popular in Portugal. Although there isn't, i believe, numbers to prove it, common sense would say that younger people, particularly in urban/suburban areas, would be quite disinterested with bullfighting compared with older of middle age people. In rural areas, particularly in Alentejo, things may be different, but, this is just my understanding.

Why do young people not like bullfighting?

There isn't much to like, is there? Apart from growing awareness of animal rights, there are new forms of entertainment for young people nowadays, so traditions can't really compete.

I'm from a bullfighting area where the norm still is that young people mostly support bullfighting, but the generational divide is already very visible.

[Mike88]

To put into context the areas where bullfighting is popular vs the results of the 2017 elections:


Number of bullfights events in 2016.


Results of the 2017 local elections.

[Former President tack50]

So I guess it's a north vs south cultural thing and not really connected to politics?

For all what's worth at least here across the border there's certainly not such a pattern. If anything, the dynamic would be center (or culturally "only Spanish") vs periphery.

]http://img.europapress.es/fotoweb/fotonoticia_20161022085130_640.jpg

Also interestingly, bullfighting seems reasonably popular in the Azores and Madeira while here the Canary Islands were the first region to ban bullfighting! (and technically, the only ban still standing as the Catalonia ban was overturned)

I'd have thought the reasons that made bullfighting unpopular in the Canary Islands (mainly the lack of pastures to grow bulls and the fact that they have to be brought from the mainland) would also apply to Azores and Madeira at least

[crals]

So I guess it's a north vs south cultural thing and not really connected to politics?

For all what's worth at least here across the border there's certainly not such a pattern. If anything, the dynamic would be center (or culturally "only Spanish") vs periphery.


Also interestingly, bullfighting seems reasonably popular in the Azores and Madeira while here the Canary Islands were the first region to ban bullfighting! (and technically, the only ban still standing as the Catalonia ban was overturned)

I'd have thought the reasons that made bullfighting unpopular in the Canary Islands (mainly the lack of pastures to grow bulls and the fact that they have to be brought from the mainland) would also apply to Azores and Madeira at least

It's only the Azores, not Madeira. The Azores have a very different climate from the Canary Islands (quite humid), there are more cows/bulls in the Azores than people and the dairy industry is a big slice of the local economy.

[Mike88]

So I guess it's a north vs south cultural thing and not really connected to politics?

For all what's worth at least here across the border there's certainly not such a pattern. If anything, the dynamic would be center (or culturally "only Spanish") vs periphery.

]http://img.europapress.es/fotoweb/fotonoticia_20161022085130_640.jpg

Also interestingly, bullfighting seems reasonably popular in the Azores and Madeira while here the Canary Islands were the first region to ban bullfighting! (and technically, the only ban still standing as the Catalonia ban was overturned)

I'd have thought the reasons that made bullfighting unpopular in the Canary Islands (mainly the lack of pastures to grow bulls and the fact that they have to be brought from the mainland) would also apply to Azores and Madeira at least

I posted, side by side, both maps to explain why the PS is so divided on this issue. The PS is the biggest party in the areas where bullfighting is very popular, so a divided PS on bullfights could mean, in theory, a problem just less than a year before the 2019 elections. This doesn't mean people in these areas will vote in other parties, but they could very well stay home on election day and hurt the PS. The PS needs to rack up huge margins in Setúbal, Santarém, Évora and Beja if they have a shot to win an absolute majority.

I don't think bullfight is even a thing in Madeira. I believe Madeira has had 0 bullfighting events in the last few years. Bullfighting is very popular in Azores, especially the "bulls on ropes". Azores, unlike Madeira, has a lot of pastures that grow cows and, probably bulls. Azores has a huge industry of pastures, with the myth, don't know if it's true or not, that in Azores for each inhabitant there's 3 cows. That's my opinion on the Azores, but crals could have a more detail explanation.

[Mike88]

Political update

The "ghost MPs" scandal continues. After the Silvano case, where the current secretary-general of the PSD had his presence signed in Parliament when he was in Vila Real, 400 kms from Lisbon, Observador newspaper has revealed that two more PSD MPs had presences signed in Parliament in days they didn't showed up in Parliament. The MPs are Matos Rosa, former PSD general-secretary during Passos Coelho and Duarte Marques. The newspaper also says more names, from all parties will be revealed, as, according to Observador, this is a common practice between MPs of all parties. About the Silvano case, the DA office has opened an investigation to his situation.

This week was also dominated by a road colapse in Borba, Évora district. The road, in the middle of two huge deep abandoned quarries, collapsed Monday afternoon killing at least two persons and 3 are still disappeared in the huge, and deep, muddy waters that cover the abandoned pit.


Aerial image of the colapsed road.

The blame game has also started. The road, it seems, was marked as dangerous and at risk for decades but no one did nothing. The government, more especially the Environment ministry, was aware as was Borba city hall. The mayor of Borba is now denying he ever knew that the road was a risk to the population, but his statements are being very bad received by the press. Nonetheless, the police is already investigating the accident and the current, and previous, mayors of Borba plus many businessmen that used the abandoned pit are being surveyed by the police.

The other big story is the ongoing strike in Setúbal harbour. Since last week, or so, workers in Setúbal harbour are on strike to protest for the huge level of precariousness in their working contracts, with many being in a precarious working situation for more than 10 years. The problem is that Setúbal harbour is one of Portugal's most important harbours, as one of the country's leading factory, Volkswagen AutoEuropa, uses it to ship and export cars. Autoeuropa pleaded with the harbour workers to end the strike, but no positive response. So, the company got fed up and contracted a few longshoreman and a cargo ship to ship and export the cars.

 
Moment when a worker on strike was removed by the police.

This created moments of big tensions in the harbour and strike workers tried to prevent the entry of those contracted workers. Shock police had to be called to remove each striker from the road and free the way for the bus containing the AutoEuropa contracted workers to enter in the harbour. The police also had to remove some MPs, as members of PCP and BE also took part in the protest. Both parties are criticizing the government for the way they are handling this strike.

[Mike88]

António Costa held a press conference to mark the 3rd anniversary of his government:


António Costa during a press conference in Porto city.

Next Monday marks the 3rd year of the PS minority government, with the the support of BE and CDU, and the PM António Costa decided to make a long press conference to answer questions from the press. During his answers, he unveiled important informations, such as:

- BE and PCP will never be part of a PS minority government, although Costa wants a good relation between the 3 parties;

- He will not ask for an absolute majority in the 2019 elections, saying that majorities are deserved not asked;

- He labeled the ongoing strike in Setúbal harbour as "intolerable", adding that the situation is exclusive to Setúbal otherwise things would be really bad for the country;

- He refused, once again, any governmental responsibility in the Borba road colapse, adding that no governmental official has visited the site to not disturb rescue plans;

- Costa also criticized the opposition parties, PSD and CDS, for trying to form "negative coalitions" with PCP and BE in a way to approve legislation to the 2019 budget that could hurt deeply the deficit number of 2019;

Full press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM-dWILt9C4

Reactions have already started. PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, acknowledges that not everything in bad in the country but that the overall grade for the government is very negative as no major economic reform has been proposed to ensure long term growth and productivity increases, while CDS says that Costa never takes responsibility for nothing. 

[Mike88]

PS wants "american style" bullfights: No blood and with hook fasteners


Bullfights could have new rules in the near future in Portugal.

Some PS MPs, that voted for the bullfighting ban a few months ago, will present legislation to ease the tensions and divisions between pró and anti bullfighting organizations. These MPs propose what is already practiced in the US, Greece and Canada in which the bull doesn't suffer any harm and is covered with a layer of hook fasteners to protect even more the animal. The proposal is still being worked on, but pró and anti bullfighting organization say the proposal could be interesting. PAN MP, André Silva, says that the animal would still be explored but it's better than what we have today, while Protoiro, the biggest pró-bullfighting organization in Portugal, says that this could be a solution.

Also, the PSD has, somewhat, kicked off the 2019 elections campaigns with a rally in Esposende, a PSD bastion, called "Party of Europe" in which almost 3,000 people showed up.


PSD rally in Esposende, Braga district.

The rally was organized by the PSD-Braga and the PSD MEPs like Paulo Rangel, which could be the PSD main candidate for the EU elections next year. In a period where the PSD is very divided towards its leader, Rio wants to mobilize the party base in order to win more support for the 2019 elections, but also to stop all the attacks from other wings of the party against him. In his speech, Rio said that the 2019 budget has "big, medium and little lies" that will hurt the country and attacked the government for creating more taxes, asking when will the PS minority stop in creating more and more taxes.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on the best President of the Republic in democracy:

Q: Who do rank as the best President in democracy?

39.4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (2016-Incumbent)
26.7% Ramalho Eanes (1976-1986)
17.3% Jorge Sampaio (1996-2006)
  8.8% Mário Soares (1986-1996)
  4.5% Cavaco Silva (2006-2016)
  3.3% No opinion

Poll conducted between 9 and 12 November 2018. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Former President tack50]

Why is Rabelo de Sousa so popular? (to the point where  he ends as the most popular president ever!)

[Mike88]

Why is Rabelo de Sousa so popular? (to the point where  he ends as the most popular president ever!)

Well, it's a mix of reasons. First, he was able to become a figure where the country could rally on in moments of tragedy and sorrow, the 2017 wildfires disasters were quite an example. It's no surprise he's called the "President of affections", while Costa, on the other hand, is known for being cold and distant in these periods. Plus, unlike Cavaco Silva, which was a somewhat distant President, Marcelo likes to be everytime with people and hear what they have to say. Sometimes it could become very tiring, for viewers as a whole, because he spends, in some periods, more time on TV, radio, internet than Costa. Second, he's a strong advocate of highlighting the successes Portugal is having but, at the same time, he also highlights the problems we still have, and, adding to this, he's also a very influential President in matters of government, which is quite popular.

But, also, you have to take this in mind: all presidents were hugely popular during the 2nd/3rd year of their 1st term. Eanes was quite popular, Soares was a superstar, Sampaio was also popular and even Cavaco was very popular between 2006-2009.

[Mike88]

The 2019 budget passes the final vote:

But it was a bumpy road until the end. Yesterday, parliament approved the final text of the 2019 budget with the votes of PS, BE, PCP, PEV and PAN, while PSD and CDS voted against. However, the government suffered a series of setbacks during the votes of some policies one by one.


Parliament during the 2019 budget votes and debates.

A series of weird coalitions between PSD, CDS and PCP, and also BE, made some major policies be approved and others struck down. Overall, the major setbacks for Costa government were the following:

- The government has to negotiate again with teachers unions. Parliament has obligated the government to sit down with teachers unions and reach an agreement. The meassure passed with the votes of PSD, CDS, PCP and BE;

- VAT will be reduced to all cultural event, bullfights included. Another PSD, CDS and PCP coalition voted in favour of reducing VAT for bullfights to 6%, while the government wanted 13%, as well for all cultural events held inside and outside, when the government wanted to create a difference between them;

- The civil protection tax, a new local tax proposed by the government, was also struck down by PSD, CDS and PCP;

On the other hand, the normal coalition, PS, BE and CDU, passed many policies like an increase in the housing tax for houses above 2 million euros, for example. The most controversial policy passed, seems to be the inclusion of 3 vaccines in the NHS vaccine program without the approval of the General Health Bureau. The vaccines in question are HPV for boys, meningitis B and rotavirus. The PSD, BE, PCP and PEV voted in favour, CDS abstained and PS voted against. Even, the minister of health didn't knew about these policy proposals presented in Parliament. Overall, PCP got 44 policies approvals, BE 39, PSD 13, PEV 13, CDS 11 and PAN also 11.


António Costa giving his final speech in the 2019 budget debate.

In his speech, Costa hailed the approval of the budget and announced that until the end of the year, Portugal will pay all the debt it has to the IMF regarding the 2011 bailout loan.

[Mike88]

Jornal da Madeira/Intercampus poll on the 2019 Madeira election candidates:

Preferred candidate for the 2019 elections:

30.3% Paulo Cafôfo (PS)
24.5% Miguel Albuquerque (PSD), Incumbent
  3.8% Rui Barreto (CDS)
  3.8% Élvio Sousa (JPP)
  2.3% Edgar Silva (CDU)
  1.3% Raquel Coelho (PTP)
  0.5% Paulino Ascensão (BE)
10.8% None of the above
22.7% Undecided

[crals]

Bullfighting is very popular in Azores, especially the "bulls on ropes". Azores, unlike Madeira, has a lot of pastures that grow cows and, probably bulls. Azores has a huge industry of pastures, with the myth, don't know if it's true or not, that in Azores for each inhabitant there's 3 cows. That's my opinion on the Azores, but crals could have a more detail explanation.

Late reply but: it's a bit of an exaggeration from mainland Portuguese that there are that many cows in the Azores It's estimated that there are only slightly more cows than people. Otherwise this is all correct.

[Mike88]

Controversies surrounding the new parties:

First, the Alliance, Santana Lopes' party. Santana choose Paulo Sande, a specialist in EU affairs, as the main candidate for his party list in the European elections of May 2019. The problem is that, currently, Mr. Sande is an adviser to President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, and this is creating a debate on the issue of compatibility. The PSD is reacting furiously to all of this. Although Rui Rio himself is downplaying the issue, saying the President isn't hurting the PSD and that he will not make this an issue, behind the curtain the party is attacking Marcelo. Some accuse Marcelo of deliberately hurting the PSD at the expense of Alliance, while others, like Rio's social media/communication director, Ricardo Gonçalves, accuses Marcelo of being soft with the PS and other parties, other than the PSD.

 
Paulo Sande, the Alliance main candidate for the EP elections.

The other question about the Alliance candidate is his almost zero experience in election campaigns.

The other story is about André Ventura, remember him? The other PSD dissident has started his campaign to collect the necessary 7,500 signatures to form his new party called "Enough!". He already created a website, started posting on social media and has revealed an electoral poster is Lisbon.


André Ventura next to the logo of his new party, Enough! (Chega!).

But it seems that his new party website was designed by a Benfica blogger who frequently posted, or shared, fake news content on social media attacking Benfica's main rivals, FCPorto and Sporting CP. Hugo Gil, the blogger who designed the website, denies the accusation that he shared fake news content, adding this are all attacks coming from Porto and Sporting. André Ventura has acknowledged that he asked Hugo Gil to create the website because he's a friend of him and because, also, he knows nothing about computing.

[bigic]

What are the chances that Portugal also has a far-right party break through? I think everything is possible, especially after elections in neighbouring Spain (Andalusia), where Vox did above all expectations, and Andalusia is not exactly a favourable region for the far-right!

[Mike88]

What are the chances that Portugal also has a far-right party break through? I think everything is possible, especially after elections in neighbouring Spain (Andalusia), where Vox did above all expectations, and Andalusia is not exactly a favourable region for the far-right!

Nowadays we cannot rule out anything, but it seems, still, very unlikely that a far-right party will have any traction in Portugal. There's a lot of stuff here that would fuel a party like, for example, Vox: corruption scandals, sleaze political practices or the deterioration of the welfare state. But, still, no major extreme force, either on the left or right, is really fueling any anger that could be around here. Alliance is a normal center-right party and the Liberal Initiative is a normal liberal party both socially and economically. André Ventura Enough! party could be an exception, but he's a figure most known for the whole "gypsy" controversy and his inflammatory remarks defending Benfica and attacking Porto and Sporting rather from his political stances. We'll see how his party performs, of he gets the signatures and approval on time.

Of course, this is just my opinion, but i don't see any major extreme party erupting in the political scene, and what is more likely is a very low turnout rate, which is already a forgone conclusion in Portuguese election for a while now.

[Mike88]

2019 elections dates are announced: General elections on October 6th; Madeira Regional election on September 22nd.


A woman casts her ballot in the 2015 general elections.

The dates of the 2019 election were announced, today, via press release, by the Presidency of the Republic. General elections will be held on 6 October, while the regional elections in Madeira will be held two weeks earlier, on September 22nd.

These election will have some changes: early voting will be facilitated, ballots in braille will be available and voters who currently live outside Portugal will be automatically registered in the their current living country, rather than in their parish in Portugal. This means that the overseas registered voters numbers could increase to around 1 million, while the registered lists in Portugal could decrease the same amount.

[Farmlands]

Had no idea there was early voting here, but I only could vote for the first time in the last local elections and didn't look much into it because they are barely important in comparison to the legislative ones.

Also, I don't see any signs of a growing extreme-right movement either. We have very few refugees in comparison to other EU countries, salaries and pensions are being raised, etc. Assuming past trends hold, the far-right PNR should get only about 0,8% of the vote.