Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

That would be awesome. Do you remember if the site was from a newspaper or something? I can help find it.

I am pretty sure it was! I remember looking at results for the villages my grandparents and parents are from but I forgot to bookmark it...

Hmmm... Is this it?
http://observador.pt/interativo/legislativas-ao-segundo/#/

[VPH]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

That would be awesome. Do you remember if the site was from a newspaper or something? I can help find it.

I am pretty sure it was! I remember looking at results for the villages my grandparents and parents are from but I forgot to bookmark it...

Hmmm... Is this it?
http://observador.pt/interativo/legislativas-ao-segundo/#/

YES! Thank you!

[Mike88]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

That would be awesome. Do you remember if the site was from a newspaper or something? I can help find it.

I am pretty sure it was! I remember looking at results for the villages my grandparents and parents are from but I forgot to bookmark it...

Hmmm... Is this it?
http://observador.pt/interativo/legislativas-ao-segundo/#/

YES! Thank you!

You're welcome! Actually it was one of my favourite sites to watch the election returns.

Ok, update on the political scene:

TSU, TSU, TSU.... The announcement by the PSD that they would vote in line with the PCP and BE to stop the reduction of the TSU in order to increase the minimum wage, is creating a huge political storm. The PS and the government are accusing the PSD of incoherency and of destruction of the Social agreement (meetings between unions/employers/government), while the PCP and BE, although accusing also the PSD of incoherency, are congratulating the PSD for, once, being on the good side, aka, their side of course. Employers don't understand the position of the PSD and are openly criticizing the party and its leader.

But, it's still unclear how this will end. Passos Coelho strategy is to show everyone that the "majority" PS/BE/PCP has no consistency and that at every little difficulty it would break. Plus, he's saying that Mr. Costa should find common ground in his coalition because Costa said in the past he didn't need the PSD. But will the PSD vote in favour of motion written by the PCP/BE? Here's what the government and  employers are hoping, that this "negative coalition" doesn't go from intentions to acts and fail to stop the policy.

Let's see how this ends.

Also, Portugal is protesting in Brussels against the Almaraz nuclear station expansion, a nuclear station in the border. Portugal accuses Spain of not informing Portugal of it's intentions and also for not taking in consideration Portugal's intentions.

Links:
About TSU:
http://observador.pt/seccao/economia/tsu/

Almaraz nuclear station:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/sociedade/2017-01-16-Queixa-de-Portugal-sobre-Almaraz-ja-seguiu-para-Bruxelas

[Mike88]

Aximage Poll about TSU cut support:

Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 40%

By party:


PSD/CDS: Approve: 55%; Disapprove: 36%
PS: Approve: 46%; Disapprove: 41%
BE: Approve: 63%!!; Disapprove: 32%
PCP: Approve: 20%; Disapprove: 65%

Summary:
PSD/CDS official position: Against TSU; PSD/CDS voters: In favour
PS official position: In favour TSU; PS voters: Slightly in favour
BE official position: Against TSU; BE voters: Totally in favour!!
PCP official position: Against TSU; PCP voters: Against TSU

So weird to see the BE voters more pro-TSU than PSD's....

Link: http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/seguranca-social/detalhe/maioria-dos-votantes-em-passos-aplaude-reducao-da-tsu

[Mike88]

Major breakthrough in the investigations against former PM José Sócrates:

The former head of BES (Banco Espirito Santo) Ricardo Salgado was charged today on accusations of corruption, breach of trust, money laundering, tax fraud and traffic of influences related to the Marquês investigation - investigation on the financial schemes of former Prime Minister José Sócrates. Ricardo Salgado was, this morning, interrogated by the police who have uncovered that the money used by Sócrates and his friends in their schemes was provided from the Espirito Santo group (which fomer BES was part of).

The investigation on the former PM, which has been lasting for more than 2 years, is expected to be concluded in March with an accusation made shortly after that.

Links:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/sociedade/2017-01-18-Dinheiro-do-caso-Socrates-vem-do-GES-a-noticia-do-Expresso-que-comprometeu-Salgado

http://observador.pt/2017/01/18/ricardo-salgado-no-dciap-no-ambito-da-operacao-marques/

[Mike88]

Motion of confidence or censure in the making?

Today, Francisco Assis, EU MP from the PS, said in an interview to Antena 1 radio that the PS should get ready for a snap election in the near future. An at the same time, an MP from the PS, Paulo Trigo Pereira, suggested that the party should put up a motion of confidence to the government. Of course both ideas were rejected by the President of the PS, Carlos Cesar and by the parliamentary affairs secretary, Pedro Nuno Santos.

Nonetheless, it's strange the PS is discussing this right now. It's to late to have an election this year but next year it's a different story. The socialists are polling very well but one thing the Portuguese electorate doesn't like is governments falling on purpose to gain more power. It could be just smoke... but it could be more evidence that the PS/BE/CDU marriage is starting to crack.

Links:
http://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/paulo-trigo-pereira-o-deputado-que-pos-os-socialistas-a-discutir-uma-mocao-de-confianca-ao-governo

http://expresso.sapo.pt/revista-de-imprensa/2017-01-19-Francisco-Assis-futuro-do-Governo-a-curto-ou-a-medio-prazo-deve-passar-por-eleicoes-antecipadas

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The decision of the PSD to contest alone the Lisbon election is creating some bad feelings between the Passos Coelho and Assunção Cristas, CDS leader. Apparently, Passos Coelho announced his decision of not supporting Cristas in Lisbon without informing her. It has Cristas herself that called Passos and demanded an explanation. The PSD candidate is still to be announced but the Lisbon mayoral race has become a foregone conclusion.

At the same time, other parties are announcing candidacies. CDU (coalition between PCP and PEV) choose Ilda Figueiredo tu run in Porto. In 2013, she was the CDU candidate in Viana do Castelo.


In Matosinhos, former mayor Narciso Miranda has also announced that he will run as an independent just like he did in 2009. His candidacy could divide even more the PS electorate in Matosinhos mainly because the local PS is in a battle with the PS-Porto District on which candidate they should choose.


Plus, newspapers are reporting on the difficulties the PS and PSD are having in finding candidates in cities where they are in opposition. The PS is in trouble in Braga, Barcelos and Fafe because of internal infighting while the PSD has cities like Guarda and Coimbra in doubt.

Links:
Passos Coelho decision in Lisbon:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-01-21-Passos-travou-apoio-a-Cristas-em-Lisboa

Ilda Figueiredo Porto:
http://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/porto/porto/interior/ilda-figueiredo-e-a-candidata-da-cdu-ao-porto-5619945.html

Narciso Miranda Matosinhos:
http://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/porto/matosinhos/interior/narciso-miranda-vai-concorrer-a-camara-de-matosinhos-5619882.html

PS and PSD difficulties:
http://www.dn.pt/portugal/interior/ps-e-psd-sem-candidatos-nas-capitais-onde-sao-oposicao-5604683.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is the system used to elect mayors and councils?

[Mike88]

What is the system used to elect mayors and councils?

D'Hondt method. Plus each municipality is awarded a certain number of councillors to elect based on the number of registered voters:

Lisbon elects 17 councillors
Porto elects 13
Municipalties with more than 100,000 voters elect 11
Municipalties between 50,000 and 100,000 voters elect 9
Municipalties between 10,000 and 50,000 voters elect 7
Municipalties with less than 10,000 voters elect 5

[Mike88]

Local elections 2017: Eurosondagem poll for Funchal (PS incumbent)

48.0% Paulo Cafôfo (PS)
25.9% Rubina Leal (PSD)
  8.7% Rui Barreto (CDS)
  6.3% Artur Andrade (CDU)
11.1% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 12 and 13 January. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.65%

Link:
http://www.dnoticias.pt/impressa/hemeroteca/diario-de-noticias/nove-meses-pela-frente-NE776384

[Mike88]

Socialist Party loses one MP.

One MP from the PS handed over his membership card and will become an independent MP. Domingos Pereira resigned as member of the PS after the party rejected his name to run in the local elections in the city of Barcelos. This departure could spell trouble for the parliamentary majority when or if the PCP decides to abstain in future votes.

With this change, the parliament looks like this:

89 PSD
85 PS
19 BE
18 CDS
17 CDU
  1 PAN
  1 Independent

Link:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/23/ps-perde-deputado-e-baralha-contas-da-geringonca/#comment-undefined-undefined-[object%20Object]

[Mike88]

The debate about the TSU compensation to increase the minimum wage will dominate the political scene today.

If anyone is interested here's a link to watch the debate:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/25/veja-aqui-o-debate-sobre-a-polemica-da-tsu/

The proposal is expected to fail with the votes against of the PSD, BE, CDU and the abstention of CDS. In the next few days the government will try to present solutions to compensate the increase on the minimum wage.

Plus, tomorrow the finance minister will be in Brussels to present Portugal's plans and the outlook of the past year. News media is reporting that the commission is going to grill the finance minister and tell him that things are not good and that they are worried about many policies and positions the government is making.

Link:
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/conjuntura/detalhe/eurogrupo-avisara-centeno-situacao-nao-esta-boa?ref=HP_DestaquesPrincipais

[Mike88]

After the TSU compensation was defeated yesterday in Parliament, the government announced the plan B. The government now proposes a reduction of the PEC (Special payment on account) which is a payment some companies make to make sure they pay some kind of comporate tax. Normaly this kind of payment is for companies and bussiness who don't have profits.

More here:
https://eco.pt/2017/01/24/o-que-e-o-pec-o-plano-b-que-une-pcp-be-e-cds/

This policy has the support of the PCP, BE and CDS and employers associations cautiously welcomed this policy. In summary, the government proposes reducing the special payment by 100, from 850 to 750 euros which is the minimum level, plus there will a reduction of 12.5% of the remaining collection payed by each company.

Link:
https://eco.pt/2017/01/26/governo-reduz-pec-por-duas-vias/

For now, this policy calms again the political scene but it will probably be for just a while. Ratings agencies are warning the government that they will only upgrade Portugal if structural reforms are made and Germany is also pressing Portugal in to making more policies to achive the targets for 2017. Let's see what happens in the next months.

[Mike88]

Newspapers and pundits are now coming to realize how the political scene drastically changed in the last few weeks. The refusal of the PSD to support the government changed everything.

https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/546078/governo-e-o-choque-da-realidade

Everyone from the BE to CDS, are now saying that for now on things will be much more difficult. When Costa became PM in November 2015, he planned on having the support, most of the time, of the the PCP and BE but when more centrist policies were proposed he could count on the support or abstention of the PSD. No more, the PSD is now in full opposition to the government and will block any policy the PS doesn't agree on with the PCP and BE. This puts the stability of the government in doubt for the future.

[Mike88]

Good article about the chances of the PSD winning the local elections:
http://observador.pt/especiais/passos-pode-vencer-as-autarquicas-e-muuuito-dificil/

The PSD is in deep trouble in Lisbon, Porto and Gaia. In the capital they still don't have a candidate, after Passos Coelho rejected the idea of supporting Assunção Cristas. In Porto, Rui Moreira is very popular and only a nuclear disaster can make him lose the election and in Gaia, the party is in a battle to find a candidate as the District party and the local party don't seem to agree on who to choose.

In the rest of the country, there are some bright spots for the PSD, especially in Braga district, while in Leiria, the capital of the most "orange" district in the country, the party is also in a battle on whom they should choose as a candidate.

This political infight isn't happening only in the PSD, the PS has also been having a lot of infighting in many cities that at the end of the day could hurt their election chances, but at the moment the PS is the favorite to win the elections.

History says the PSD is the favorite to win the local elections as no government since 1975 has won a midterm local election, but polls, pundits and the mood of the country seem to suggest a PS victory.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will Coelho likely be ousted if the PSD fail?

[Mike88]

Will Coelho likely be ousted if the PSD fail?

That's the million dollar question right now in Portuguese politics. Passos Coelho has already said that win or lose the local elections, he will contest the 2018 leadership race. Rui Rio, the most likely opponent of Coelho, has also stated that he would put his name forward in 2018 but at the moment his name isn't well received in the party militancy. In fact newspapers reported in December that in party meetings he received a very negative response from militants of the party and because of this he stopped any attempt from his supports of summon a congress this year.

Time will tell, but who knows. The most likely outcome is that if he loses the elections he will be ousted, but he won't give up without a fight, that's for sure.

[Lord Halifax]

Will Coelho likely be ousted if the PSD fail?

That's the million dollar question right now in Portuguese politics. Passos Coelho has already said that win or lose the local elections, he will contest the 2018 leadership race. Rui Rio, the most likely opponent of Coelho, has also stated that he would put his name forward in 2018 but at the moment his name isn't well received in the party militancy. In fact newspapers reported in December that in party meetings he received a very negative response from militants of the party and because of this he stopped any attempt from his supports of summon a congress this year.

Time will tell, but who knows. The most likely outcome is that if he loses the elections he will be ousted, but he won't give up without a fight, that's for sure.

Militants is a very odd phrase to use in English. I take it you mean members/supporters?

[Mike88]

Will Coelho likely be ousted if the PSD fail?

That's the million dollar question right now in Portuguese politics. Passos Coelho has already said that win or lose the local elections, he will contest the 2018 leadership race. Rui Rio, the most likely opponent of Coelho, has also stated that he would put his name forward in 2018 but at the moment his name isn't well received in the party militancy. In fact newspapers reported in December that in party meetings he received a very negative response from militants of the party and because of this he stopped any attempt from his supports of summon a congress this year.

Time will tell, but who knows. The most likely outcome is that if he loses the elections he will be ousted, but he won't give up without a fight, that's for sure.

Militants is a very odd phrase to use in English. I take it you mean members/supporters?

Yes, i mean members of the party. I wrote militants because the word in portuguese is "militantes".

Today, newspapers are reporting that negotiations between the PSD and CDS are becoming harsh. Why? because the PSD is in some cases presenting candidates and the CDS doesn't like them or the CDS is upset because their candidates surge in illegible spots. The leaders of both PSD and CDS will meet in the next few weeks to resolve this situation.

https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/546414/psd-cds-acordo-quadro-para-as-autarquicas-em-risco-

This kind of discusions are normal, but this time around they're more in the headlines because the leader of CDS, Assunção Cristas, wants to win some political ground and power.

[Mike88]

PSD approves the first 46 candidates for the local elections.

List here:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/31/psd-aprova-primeiros-46-candidatos-as-autarquicas-saiba-quem-sao/

[Mike88]

Former PM José Sócrates is going to sue the Portuguese State for damage caused by the delay of the investigation involving him. In a press conference tonight, Sócrates accused the justice system of persecution and slander because of the length of the investigation about his money schemes. He even threatened to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights.



The Marquês investigation, involving the former PM and other high profile personalities such as Ricardo Salgado, is expected to be concluded in mid March with an accusation made shortly after. The repercussion of an accusation or a hypothetical archive of the investigation, will be very big in the political system and on the confidence of the justice system.

Link:
http://observador.pt/2017/02/03/jose-socrates-vai-processar-estado-portugues-por-demora-do-processo/

http://expresso.sapo.pt/sociedade/2017-02-03-Socrates-Se-o-Estado-nao-arquiva-nem-acusa-acuso-eu

[Mike88]

In the next few weeks, parties will approve the last candidates for the local election which will be held in late September or early October, being October 1st the most likely date.

To understand and analise the upcoming election, it's important to know the results of the previous election. And here they are:



Note: The total number of votes for the PSD is the sum of votes between PSD-only candidacies and coalitions led by the PSD with other parties like CDS, PPM and MPT.
          The total number of votes for the PS is the sum of votes between PS-only candidacies and coalitions led by the PS with other parties like PAN, BE, PND, PTP and MPT.
          The total number of votes for the CDS is the sum of votes between CDS-only candidacies and coalitions led by the CDS with other parties like PSD, MPT and PPM.

Also, after by-elections, the number of parish presidents at the moment are:

1 286 PS
1 232 PSD
   341 Independents
   171 CDU
     55 CDS

The PSD starts with a big deficit in mayors to the PS. The 44 gap is very big and for the PSD to overcome the PS, the PS needs to lose more than 20 mayors, at the same time the PSD wins the same amount. It's very unlikely to happen but, as i said in post above, no government since 1975 has won a midterm local election. History could be made this time around.

In the Municipal and Parish Assemblies elections things are much more closer. The 2013 results showed a close race between PS and PSD and in the parish elections the PSD has a strong chance of surpassing the Socialists in terms of presidents.

[Mike88]

José Manuel Coelho, a Regional MP from the Portuguese Labour Party in the Madeira parliament, was sentenced to one year in jail after accusing the former head of the PCTP/MRPP, Garcia Pereira, of being a CIA agent and for going after the "democrats" in Madeira at the request of the former President of the Region, Alberto João Jardim.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-01-30-Deputado-Jose-Manuel-Coelho-condenado-a-um-ano-de-prisao-efetiva

But here comes the hilarious part. After hearing the sentence, Mr. Coelho asked for asylum in a rock in Funchal owned by a guy who autoproclamed himself prince of the rock and independent from Portugal.

http://www.dn.pt/portugal/interior/jose-manuel-coelho-pede-asilo-ao-ilheu-da-pontinha-5651316.html

This is not the first time José Manuel Coelho is in the headlines. Since he ran for President in 2011 and achieve 4.5% of the vote, he has been known for making extravagant and weird stuff.
Last year, he appeared naked in Parliament in protest for the fact that his salary was seized.



Also last year, during the visit of the President of the Republic, he flashed an ISIS flag while next to the President.



But one of his most famous moments was in 2008 when he showed a Nazi flag in the Madeira Parliament as he accused the PSD of being fascist.



Hilarious and at same time sad...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sounds like an FF mo

[Mike88]

The Caixa Geral de Depositos (public bank) controversy is again in the headlines and this time it hits hard on the Finance Minister, Mário Centeno.

After courts obligated both the Bank and the government to release documents to the Parliamentary commission, although until now only the government released the documents, they were leaked to the press and they shed some light on the weird agreement between the Finance minister and the then appointee president of the bank, António Domingues.

The documents show that Domingues wanted to be paid as much as private bank CEO is paid and that he didn't want to released his tax records to the Constitutional Court, in total violation of a 1983 law. The Finance minister accepted his terms and started preparing legislation in which the bank would be withdrawn from the statute of the business sector, a collection of narratives in which all public companies are obliged to follow. After these changes, Domingues accepted the job.

The problem was really that old 1983 law, which obligates all public employees, such as managers in companies controlled by the state, to release their tax records. The opposition saw this and started attacking the government up to such a point that Mr Domingues had only one choice, resign. But a letter from 15 November 2016 in which Mr. Domingues accuses the Minister of missing his words and saying right their that they had an agreement, proves that the government official line that there was no agreement was false. Since August, the Finance Minister, his secretaries and the PM have been denying such negotiations and agreements, although not directly.

Opposition and Government are now in a war of words with the opposition accusing the minister and the PM of lying and of trying to cover up, while the government argues that these documents don't prove nothing. Some members of the PSD and even pundits, are suggesting that Mr. Centeno should resign. The Caixa drama, unfortunately, is still not over.

Link:
https://eco.pt/2017/02/08/ccg-carta-secreta-de-domingues-compromete-centeno/