Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Update on the local elections:

Sad news from Barcelos: PSD/CDS candidate for the parish of Cambeses died in a motorcycle crash.

Also, new poll, from Consulmark2, for Oeiras:

45% Isaltino Morais, 6 councillors
21% Paulo Vistas, 3
10% PS, 1
  9% PSD/CDS/PPM, 1
  5% CDU
  1% BE
  1% Susana Amado Gonçalves
  8% Others/Invalid

[Mike88]

Another charge of racism in the local elections. This time in the PS.

After the André Ventura case, another one. The PS candidate, Joana Campos, for the parish of São Francisco de Assis, (Covilhã municipality/Castelo Branco district), is being accused of racism and xenophobia by the CDS after she mocked, in a debate, the CDS candidate for his accent, the CDS candidate for the parish was an immigrant in Venezuela for many years.


Joana Campos, PS candidate for the parish of São Francisco de Assis.

Besides mocking the CDS candidate, Júlio Canhoto, accent, the PS candidate argued that he is only a candidate for the parish because he had to flee from Venezuela. The CDS and their candidate for mayor of Covilhã, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, said the PS candidate wanted to humiliate their candidate. Later they labeled this as xenophobia, and want the PS to withdraw their candidate. The mayor of Covilhã and PS candidate, Vitor Pereira, has already said he doesn't see any case of racism or xenophobia, and that Joana Campos is a very thoughtful and polite person.

[Mike88]

PSD and PS leaders on the campaign trail last week:

Passos Coelho, Friday night rally in Vila Real





António Costa, Sunday night rally in Faro:

[Mike88]

Aximage poll about the controversial remarks of André Ventura, PSD candidate for Loures, about the gypsy community that were labeled as racist:

Q: Tell me in all sincerity, regardless of your political options, if you agree with the statements made by André Ventura, PSD candidate for Loures, that the gypsies are favored, exemplifying it with the attribution of social housing and occupation of public spaces?

67.8% Agree
25.2% Disagree
  3.7% Neutral
  3.3% No opinion

Poll conducted on 29 and 30th August. Polled 597 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll about the controversial remarks of André Ventura, PSD candidate for Loures, about the gypsy community that were labeled as racist:

Q: Tell me in all sincerity, regardless of your political options, if you agree with the statements made by André Ventura, PSD candidate for Loures, that the gypsies are favored, exemplifying it with the attribution of social housing and occupation of public spaces?

67.8% Agree
25.2% Disagree
  3.7% Neutral
  3.3% No opinion

Poll conducted on 29 and 30th August. Polled 597 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Results by party:


All parties agree with Mr. Ventura statements. CDS, who withdrew their support to Mr. Ventura, is the party that most agrees with him, followed closely by the PSD. And even the left/leftwing electorate, in which the leaders of PS and BE labeled Mr. Ventura as racist and a xenophobe, agree with his statements, although by smaller margins.

[Mike88]

My updated forecast for the October 1st local elections: (without tossups)

Map:

Results forecast:

134 PS (-16); 35% - projected share of the vote
119 PSD (+13); 32%
  32 CDU (-2); 11%
  16 Indy (+4); 7%
    5 CDS (n.c.); 5%
    1 BE (+1); 3%
    1 JPP (n.c.); 0%
    0 Others (n.c); 7%

I will make one last forecast in the final week of the campaign when more information and polls are available.

[Mike88]

This week has been a weird one in terms of political news:

First, the Pedrógão Grande disaster funds. Some newspapers have been reporting since Monday that many funds, donated by private companies or individuals, are missing and that there's no trace of the money. This created, and it still is, a huge controversy. The PM, when asked about this, gave a weird and evasive answer saying that any questions about the money should be asked to private donors and to RTP, because they organized a massive concert to donate money to Pedógão. But the other problem is that the governmental fund is also involved in controversy. The PM said the fund has 1.9 million euros but it was estimate to have more than 3 million. The minister of Social Security has already hinted that there might be some abuse in the management of the funds. This is just...No comment.

Then, the nurses strike. The government is in a full war with nurses unions and associations. The unions want a gradual pay rise in the next to 3 years of around 100%, as Portugal is losing many nurses to the UK and other European countries. The Health minister has said no way to these proposals by the unions and, so, the nurses will go on strike. The problem is that the government says the strike is illegal because it was announced to late and, at the same time, the government is warning that if the nurses do not present to work, they will have unjustified absence which can lead to some kind of punishment. This doesn't look good.

Next, the "travelgates" continue. Almost everyday some kind of report that members of the government, the PS or PSD have received paid vacations by multinational companies emerge. This time involves the PSD, and especially people that want to kick Passos Coelho out of the leadership. Pedro Duarte and Mauro Xavier are members of the PSD and also of the Microsoft Portugal board. I and Sol newspapers have discovered that they have invited many local officials from the PS and PSD to travels to Microsoft headquarters in Seattle. The hotels and some expenses were paid by Microsoft. Mauro Xavier has already said these informations are coming from the leadership of the PSD and, at the same time, Passos Coelho wants a "thorough clarification" about this. The DA office is already investigating this.

And then there's this. Sábado magazine is reporting that the police asked José Sócrates former girlfriend about an alleged cocaine deal to the former Socialist PM. The magazine is suggesting that Sócrates may have consumed drugs during or after his premiership. WOW!!!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How was Socrates as PM, aside from the crookedness?

[Mike88]

How was Socrates as PM, aside from the crookedness?

He had some good policies like the modernization of public services or the incentives for companies to export their products, that were cemented during Passos Coelho governments, but, overall, he was really bad. He made really bad public investments like spending millions of euros on studies for a high speed train or a new Lisbon airport adding to this the construction of many highways that, as of today, are ghost roads. He also increased public spending to levels the Portuguese economy couldn't stand and made several U-turn's in terms of tax cuts. But it's very difficult to rate Sócrates as a PM without the crookedness. Many of the deals he made, from Public-Private deals for hospitals, roads, trains or even deals in big companies like Portugal Telecom had a really awful impact on our economy.

[Mike88]

September poll from Eurosondagem:

It seems that Costa is choking. PSD seems to have stop the bleeding and is recovering. No major changes for BE, CDU or CDS.



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 31 August and 6 September. Polled 1,007 voters. MoE of 3.09%

[mvd10]

How was Socrates as PM, aside from the crookedness?

He had some good policies like the modernization of public services or the incentives for companies to export their products, that were cemented during Passos Coelho governments, but, overall, he was really bad. He made really bad public investments like spending millions of euros on studies for a high speed train or a new Lisbon airport adding to this the construction of many highways that, as of today, are ghost roads. He also increased public spending to levels the Portuguese economy couldn't stand and made several U-turn's in terms of tax cuts. But it's very difficult to rate Sócrates as a PM without the crookedness. Many of the deals he made, from Public-Private deals for hospitals, roads, trains or even deals in big companies like Portugal Telecom had a really awful impact on our economy.

What do you mean with incentives to export? Making Portugal more competitive or actual export subsidies?

[Mike88]

How was Socrates as PM, aside from the crookedness?

He had some good policies like the modernization of public services or the incentives for companies to export their products, that were cemented during Passos Coelho governments, but, overall, he was really bad. He made really bad public investments like spending millions of euros on studies for a high speed train or a new Lisbon airport adding to this the construction of many highways that, as of today, are ghost roads. He also increased public spending to levels the Portuguese economy couldn't stand and made several U-turn's in terms of tax cuts. But it's very difficult to rate Sócrates as a PM without the crookedness. Many of the deals he made, from Public-Private deals for hospitals, roads, trains or even deals in big companies like Portugal Telecom had a really awful impact on our economy.

What do you mean with incentives to export? Making Portugal more competitive or actual export subsidies?

A bit of both. During his government, many policies in order to modernize the economy and to make it more competitive were approved. He also eliminated some government bureaucracies to help companies export more. Some companies also had subsidies if they created plans for more competitiveness and exports.

[VPH]

Wait, what's the BE hotspot in central Portugal?

[Mike88]

Wait, what's the BE hotspot in central Portugal?

Salvaterra de Magos. This municipality was the only one governed by BE between 2001 and 2013. In the 2013 elections, the popular BE mayor, Ana Cristina Ribeiro, was barred from running due to term limits and the PS gain it from the BE. This year, Ana Cristina Ribeiro is back and i believe she has the upper hand here and will, IMO, gain this city from the PS.

Here's Salvaterra de Magos election results since 2001:

2001 elections:

55.2% BE 5 councillors
17.0% PS 1
11.9% PSD 1
  9.8% CDU
  1.4% CDS

2005 elections:

49.6% BE 4
15.6% PSD 1
13.3% PS 1
12.5% CDU 1
  4.1% CDS

2009 elections:

46.1% BE 4
28.8% PS 2
11.4% PSD 1
10.3% CDU

2013 elections:

32.8% PS 3
27.0% BE 2
11.3% CDU 1
10.9% PSD/CDS 1
10.8% Indy

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Vila Nova de Gaia (Porto district), 300,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):



Poll conducted on 9 and 10 September. Polled 636 voters who intend to vote. MoE of 3.6%.

[Mike88]

BREAKING NEWS The PS has lost it's candidate for Ourém, Paulo Fonseca, as the final court ruling says he's insolvent and, therefore, barred from running.


Paulo Fonseca (PS), Ourém mayor since 2009.

The incumbent mayor of Ourém (Santarém district), Paulo Fonseca, saw his reelection candidacy struck down after the local court upheld the PSD/CDS request of impeachment of the PS candidate. The court says that the candidate continues insolvent, in other words bankrupt, and, according to the law, is barred from running. Mr. Fonseca is involved in many corruption scandals and the DA office has asked for his removal from office at least twice. The PS will nominate the number 2 in the list, Célia Seixo, as they are forbidden to chose another candidate from outside the lists.

More news:

The PS will appeal this decision and the party adds they still have political confidence in Paulo Fonseca.

It's over for Paulo Fonseca: The Constitutional Court confirms the ineligibility of the PS candidate for Ourém.

The number 2 on the list, Célia Maria de Jesus Seixo, will now lead the PS list by court order.

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Maia (Porto district), 135,000 inhabitants; (PSD/CDS incumbent):



Poll conducted on 9 and 10 September. Polled 718 voters. MoE of 3.6%.

[Mike88]

Campaign headquarters of Isaltino Morais, candidate for Oeiras mayor, were vandalized and destroyed during the night. But nothing was stolen.


The headquarters after the vandalizing.

During the early hours of this morning, the campaign headquarters of Isaltino Morais, independent candidate for Oeiras, was vandalized. According to the campaign director, shop windows were broken, campaign material was destroyed and computers were also smashed. The Police is already investigating this act of vandalism.

[Mike88]

Poll from IPOM for Guimarães (Braga District), Pop. of 158,000 inhabitants: (PS incumbent)

45.3% PS
43.1% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/PPV-CDC
  6.5% CDU
  1.4% BE
  3.7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 31 August and 1 September. Polled 854 voters. MoE of 3.40%. Link.

[Mike88]

Poll from IPOM for Maia (Porto District), Pop. of 135,000 inhabitants: (PSD/CDS incumbent)

48.3% PSD/CDS
27.0% PS
  7.8% CDU
  5.9% BE
  1.7% Others
  9.3% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 26 and 28 August. Polled 882 voters. MoE of 3.40%. Link.

[Mike88]

The political scene was, today, rocked by a government proposal that made everyone mad, especially millions of voters...

On October 1st, election day, there will a match between Sporting and FCPorto at 19:15 pm with also Benfica playing at 20:00 pm. Many people didn't saw a problem with this, but the BE, CDU and the Electoral Commission saw one and criticized the fact that these football games occur on election day. But the problem is that government, once again, stepped in. This morning, newspapers started reporting that the government wants to ban football games on election days. This created a huge wave of criticism with the media suggesting the government thinks that people are stupid, while the PSD even suggested that the government thinks the electorate are a bunch of children that cannot distinguish voting from football. The government has already made a small step back saying that this is only a suggestion and will be discussed later.

Nonetheless, this is one of the stupidest moves, IMO, this government has made till date.

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Braga (Braga district), 183,000 inhabitants; (PSD/CDS/PPM incumbent):



Poll conducted on 10 and 13 September. Polled 848 voters. MoE of 3.4%.

[Mike88]

More polls:

Eurosondagem poll for Coimbra (Coimbra district), 135,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

33.1% PS, 4 councillors
26.7% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT, 3
15.2% José Manuel Silva, 2
  9.0% BE, 1
  8.3% CDU, 1
  7.7% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 11 and 13 September. Polled 717 voters. MoE of 3.7%.

Eurosondagem poll for Évora (Évora district), 55,000 inhabitants; (CDU incumbent):

38.9% CDU, 3/4 councillors
29.6% PS, 2/3
17.5% PSD, 1
  5.3% BE
  3.0% CDS/PPM/MPT
  1.8% PAN
  3.9% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 September. Polled 703 voters. MoE of 3.7%.

Eurosondagem poll for Braga (Braga district), 183,000 inhabitants; (PSD/CDS/PPM incumbent):

50.0% PSD/CDS/PPM, 6/7 councillors
27.7% PS, 3
10.0% CDU, 1
  6.0% BE, 0/1
  0.8% NC
  5.5% Invalid

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 September. Polled 711 voters. MoE of 3.7%.

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Lisbon (Lisbon district), 520,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):



Poll conducted on 16 September. Polled 764 voters who intend to vote. MoE of 3.5%.

Sometimes there's poll that is bad for almost everyone and this one is one of those cases. This poll is bad for the PS, CDS, PSD and CDU. Only BE has some good news. It's bad for the PS because they could be on the verge of losing their majority; it's bad for CDS because after all the bad press, and mockery, that the PSD candidate has had, Cristas is basically tied with the PSD; it's bad for the PSD because they're in third and it's bad for CDU because they could fall behind BE.

[VPH]

How is Andre Venturas polling in his race?