Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Results of the Azores 2016 election by parish:

[DavidB.]

Very interesting, thanks for all this, Mike!

[VPH]

Fairly minor, but what's up with that PPM seat on Corvo?

PPM is the only party whose regional leader/top candidate is from Corvo, and they focus much of their campaigning there to get him elected.

My grandpa who has a friend from Corvo says it's because a good number of the descendants of the last king live there.

[Mike88]

I wonder what the effect geopolitical wrangling between China and the US in the Azores has on the ground?

Well, in his visit to China, António Costa said that China was interested in investing in Lajes. The PS Azores said it could be a good idea to have a US-China base (not sure if that's even possible) while the PSD said the base should stay with the Americans.
Judging by the election results in Lajes parish, the PSD increased it's share by 10% while the PS maintained their share. Not sure if this means that the people of Lajes want US or China investment, but the trend says that maybe they are against China involvement.

[crals]

Fairly minor, but what's up with that PPM seat on Corvo?

PPM is the only party whose regional leader/top candidate is from Corvo, and they focus much of their campaigning there to get him elected.

My grandpa who has a friend from Corvo says it's because a good number of the descendants of the last king live there.

But the last king left no descendants. It's possible that there are descendants of royalty there, I've never heard of it but I've never been to Corvo and I admit I don't know that much about it. But PPM has only held that seat for the same candidate, Paulo Estêvão.

[crals]

I wonder what the effect geopolitical wrangling between China and the US in the Azores has on the ground?

Well, in his visit to China, António Costa said that China was interested in investing in Lajes. The PS Azores said it could be a good idea to have a US-China base (not sure if that's even possible) while the PSD said the base should stay with the Americans.
Judging by the election results in Lajes parish, the PSD increased it's share by 10% while the PS maintained their share. Not sure if this means that the people of Lajes want US or China investment, but the trend says that maybe they are against China involvement.

I'm from Terceira and the Lajes issue affects the whole island due to the great impact it has on employment and commerce. People are rather scared of China and everyone would much rather keep the airbase in the USA's hands, but I believe most would rather have China there than no one.

[crals]

In the end this election had something nice for everyone. PS retained their absolute majority, PSD did not do as poorly as expected, the smaller parties in the regional assembly all gained votes and even PAN I would say got a decent result even in my very pro-bullfighting island. I'm satisfied, even if the turnout was pitiful.

[Mike88]

As the Azores election is over, i took the election from the topic title.

Next year, local elections in all 308 municipalties.

[Mike88]

Today, DBRS, a Canadian rating agency and the only one that has Portugal above the level of "garbage" has updated their assessment about Portugal.
The good news is that Portugal maintains the rating above "garbage" and a stable perspective.
The bad news is that, once again, the rating doesn't go up and there's no glimpse that it will rise in the near future.

Also, the President of the Republic has been hearing the parties represented in Parliament about the budget proposal for 2017. All parties will propose changes to the budget, but the discussion of the budget could be delayed by a few weeks because the PSD threatens not to participate in the budget discussions next week if the government doesn't release the data about the budget execution in 2016 and the estimates for the end of this year. The speaker of parliament has already ask the government to send this data with urgency. The government says that the data will be available but nothing yet.

Link to DBRS rating:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/economia/2016-10-21-DBRS-mantem-rating-e-perspetiva-para-Portugal

Link to the budget debacle:
http://observador.pt/2016/10/20/psd-ameaca-nao-participar-na-discussao-do-oe-se-governo-nao-enviar-dados/

[Mike88]

The budget discussion started today in a very bumpy way. After the UTAO, the parliamentary budget unit, said that the budget lacked many documents and was a regression in terms of budget transparency, the finance minister finally allowed the release of these documents but not without creating an ever bitter relacion between the government and the opposition. Because of this delay, the budget discussion will restart next week.

Also, today, another "college degree" scandal erupted in the government, again. This time it was one of the PM's assistants that forged it's CV, apparently with the knowledge of António Costa, in which he presented himself as licensed in electronic engineer when in fact he wasn't because he didn't finished his course.

[Mike88]

Update on the PM assistant who forged his college degree: Unlike many others, he had the decency of resigning as an assistant to the Prime Minister.

Link: http://observador.pt/2016/10/25/adjunto-de-costa-so-fez-quatro-cadeiras-do-curso/

[Mike88]

Here he goes again: Schäuble: "Portugal was on the right track until it changed the government"

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/europa/uniao-europeia/zona-euro/detalhe/schuble-portugal-ia-no-bom-caminho-ate-mudar-de-governo?ref=DestaquesTopo

Although he has a point, he shouldn't say this. It looks bad.

[Mike88]

More resignations in the government involving more "college degree" scandals. This time was the cheff of staff of the Education minister who made up two college degrees and the minister, apparently, knew everything and didn't stop it.

Link: http://observador.pt/2016/10/28/chefe-de-gabinete-inventou-dois-cursos-e-o-ministro-da-educacao-segurou-o-demitiu-se-agora/

[Mike88]

Last few days have been very worrying for the government. First, the fallout after the government released, with heavy pressure from everybody, the reports and estimates for the year 2016 is growing by the day. The numbers don't add with what the government says and the opposition is using this, big time, to criticized the lack of transparency of the government.

Second, the controversy about the income statements of the newly appointed president of the public bank Caixa Geral de Depósitos, António Domingues, continues. It has been revealed that one of the conditions for António Domingues to accept the presidency was to not have to hand to the Constitutional Court his tax records. The government changed the law, to insert the conditions of Domingues but, of course, this is creating a political storm between the PS and his leftwing allies and also the opposition, PSD and CDS. The PSD says the law is unconstitutional and threatens to send it to the court. This could become ugly for the bank and the country if this isn't resolved quickly.

About the Caixa controversy:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/economia/2016-11-01-CGD-Declaracoes-de-rendimentos-nem-ve-las

[Mike88]

Update on the other scandal that is haunting the government, the "college degree" gate.
Yesterday, the Education Minister made an interview to SIC television where he stated that he didn't knew about the college degree fiasco of his chief of staff and that he never stopped his exoneration. Well, just 4 hours after the interview, newspapers starting reporting that emails (yes, we have that to ) between the minister and his former secretary showed that the minister in fact stopped the exoneration of his chief of staff, after months of pressure from his secretary, because of his wife health and the friendship between him and his chief of staff.

Also, today, the budget discussion started in parliament with the Finance Minister having a G. H. W. Bush moment, when the minister said: "Read my lips, no new taxes". He should have checked how that worked for Bush.

Link to the email story:
http://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/532839/emails-desmentem-versao-do-ministro-da-educacao?seccao=Portugal_i

[Mike88]

New poll from Aximage:

PS: 38,3% (+0,6%)
PSD: 28,7% (-1,9%)
BE: 9,0% (+0,3%)
CDU: 7,3% (-0,2%)
CDS: 6,4% (+0,3%)
Others: 8,8% (+1,5%)
Undecided: 2,2% (-0,6%)

Turnout: 63,4%

Conducted on 31 October and November 1st. Polled 601 voters. MoE : 4,00%

[Mike88]

Donald Trump's victory just made an unexpected entry in portuguese politics. During last night, the Lisbon City Chamber put up signs around the location of the Web Summit that says "In the free world you can still find a city where to live, invest and build your future, Making bridges, not walls. We call it Lisbon."



Of course this message is not naive. The PSD and CDS have already criticized the mayor of Lisbon for doing this saying that the mayor is trying to shift focus from his bad management of the city.

Links to the story:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-11-10-Camara-de-Lisboa-coloca-cartazes-anti-Trump

http://expresso.sapo.pt/web-summit/2016-11-10-PSD-pede-explicacoes-a-Camara-de-Lisboa-sobre-cartazes-anti-Trump

[Babeuf]

Mike88, why do you think the government's scandals you were talking about seem to have no effect on the poll #s? PS seems to be holding up very well.

[Mike88]

Mike88, why do you think the government's scandals you were talking about seem to have no effect on the poll #s? PS seems to be holding up very well.

Simple, the PSD is doing a terrible opposition. And also, the main opposition voices in the past now support the government. The fact that the PCP and BE support the PS changed the way opposition now is in Portugal. In the past when a school, for example, had few employees hired in the beginning of the school year, the PCP and BE were there to protest and this opened the news. This year schools had even fewer employees hired but this time the PCP and BE weren't there, no one was there. So when the forces that are the main opposition to the status quo join the status quo, a weird silence emerges.
This helps the government, because the bad news coverage they could have, isn't going to be extensible reported. Even this scandals, which some are very serious, are being debunked by the BE and PCP, as they argue to the PSD/CDS to shut up because they also did similar stuff when they were in government.
But this doesn't excuse the PSD and CDS for the bad opposition their doing and the lack of strategy both parties have.

[Mike88]

New poll from Eurosondagem:

PS: 37,0% (+0,7%)
PSD: 30,4% (-0,3%)
BE: 9,7% (+0,2%)
CDU: 8,2% (-0,1%)
CDS: 6,6% (-0,4%)
PAN: 1,1% (-0,2%)
Others: 7,0% (+0,1%)

Conducted between 2 and 9 November. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE : 3,08%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

who do you vote for Mike?

Also how much of a distinction is there between PSD and CDS?

[Mike88]

who do you vote for Mike?

Also how much of a distinction is there between PSD and CDS?

In general, i vote for the PSD.

Both are, somewhat, sister parties. Similar to the relation between the CDU and CSU in Germany. In the early days of democracy, the PSD (then PPD) was more center-left while the CDS was more to the right. But as time moved on, the PSD started to shift to the center-right, which was cemented by the Cavaco Silva governments between 1985-1995. Both parties are liberal conservative, pro Europe (altought the CDS in the past was anti EU) but in general the biggest distintion between the two are in social issues. The CDS is anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, while the PSD is more divided. The PSD has a wing who is very conservative on social issues but more Social Democratic on economics and another which is very liberal in social issues and liberal/conservative on economics.
In general, they are parties that complement each other and that, when necessary, support each other.

[aross]

Are there wings of the respective parties that advocate an end to the alliance/looser ties?

[Mike88]

Are there wings of the respective parties that advocate an end to the alliance/looser ties?

You're asking about the PS, BE and PCP, right?

[aross]

Are there wings of the respective parties that advocate an end to the alliance/looser ties?

You're asking about the PS, BE and PCP, right?

No, PSD/CDS. Alliance was perhaps too strong a word though there's been one often enough.

By all means write about the other too though