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Author Topic: Portugal's politics and elections  (Read 82185 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #625 on: December 28, 2017, 11:28:43 am »

Rui Rio presented, yesterday, his manifesto for the 13th January leadership elections:

The former mayor of Porto, Rui Rio, unveiled his manifesto, or motion, for the PSD elections. Presented in Leiria, the manifesto called "From the PSD to the country", Mr Rio laid out many of his plans for the party and for the country. Rio wants a PSD that goes from the center-right to the center-left, and wants a more decentralized Portugal, with more focus on rural and more poorer areas. He also said he wants to free the country from the mooring to the far left.


Rui Rio presenting his manifesto in Leiria.

His main policies are the following:

- Reforms of the political and the justice system;

- Rigor in the public finances, promote the sustainability of public finances, and reduction of the national debt;

- Lower taxes for middle class families and for companies;

- Reforms in the Education system, promoting more attention to teachers worries and to the quality of the pedagogy;

- Higher investment in the NHS to improve services quality;

- Reforms in Social Security;

- Creation of a national crisis prevention and response strategy;

- Decentralization of public institutes, and others, from Lisbon to the rest of the country in a way to revive other areas across the country;
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Mike88
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« Reply #626 on: January 05, 2018, 12:33:21 pm »

Updates on the political scene:

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has vetoed the controversial new party financing law. In a letter to Parliament, Marcelo said that the lack of scrutiny the making of the law had, obligated him to stop the new law.


Main chamber of the Portuguese Parliament.

All parties have accepted the President's decision, with the exception of the Communists. The Communists accuse Marcelo of vetoing, the law, without any fundament and want to impose the law, regardless of the opinion of the President. Nonetheless, the new law is in a "coma", right now. All parties have agreed in delaying any new discussions about the law until late February, after the new PSD leader is elected and confirmed in congress. However, the 2 candidates for the PSD leadership elections, Rio and Santana, are against the changes in the law, and if the left parties continue to support the same changes in the law, PSD may align with CDS to struck down the law.

Also, the 1st debate for the PSD leadership occurred yesterday, and it had one winner... António Costa:

Rui Rio and Santana Lopes went face to face, for the 1st time, in a debate. The debate started normal with the 2 candidates criticizing the new party party financing law, but it got ugly when Santana confronted Rio with his accusation that Santana's term in office was "a mess".


1st debate between Rio and Santana, broadcast on RTP1.

Santana hammered heavily Rio, accusing him of being disloyal, Rio was VP of the party during the short tenure of Santana (2004-2005), adding also that he has criticized more the party than António Costa. Rio responded by remembering Santana of his feud with Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the 90's, where Santana threatened to leave the PSD to form a new party, the PSL - Social Liberal Party. The debate was heavily centered in the past, and not in the future. On the 2nd half of the debate, Rio recovered. Rio laid out a more convincing set of policies, while Santana was quite vague. In the final remarks, Santana proposed to create a "moderate alternative" against Costa, while Rio asked voters who is in better shape to be PM, he or Santana, adding that Santana already was PM and didn't performed well and that the party needs to take a step ahead, and not backwards.

Pundits are giving Santana the victory in the debate, for his ability of putting Rio on the defense. And, at the same time, are saying the debate was weak, poor and too focused on the past.

The next debates are on January 10th, on TVI, and January 11th on the radio.

Full debate: Link. (It can be translated: Português -> Inglês)
« Last Edit: January 05, 2018, 12:47:54 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #627 on: January 05, 2018, 02:05:25 pm »

Eurosondagem poll on ministers recognition:

Q: Can you name, at least, 5 ministers of the current government?

49.9% No
27.3% Have doubts/Don't Know
23.6% Yes

Poll conducted between 20/21 and 26 to 29 December. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #628 on: January 06, 2018, 11:53:13 am »

Eurosondagem poll on the voting system:

Q: Should compulsory voting be introduced in Portugal?

52.8% No
41.1% Yes
  6.1% Don't Know

Poll conducted between 20/21 and 26 to 29 December. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #629 on: January 08, 2018, 07:44:02 pm »

The PSD leadership election campaign is entering in its last days:

Rui Rio says he would let Costa govern if the PS fails to win a majority in the next election; He adds that he will not do the same thing Costa did in 2015 and block the most voted party from governing.

Santana Lopes says he will never help or support Costa, that Rio is becoming desperate and that Rio is trying to justify his proximity to the PS.

Rio responded to Santana's attacks, in an interview to SIC TV, saying that if Santana wins the leadership, the PS will be thrown to the arms of the extreme left and that's bad for the country.
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Mike88
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« Reply #630 on: January 09, 2018, 03:17:02 pm »

Two controversies are surrounding two ministers from Costa's government:

Mário Centeno, the finance minister, is being accused by the media of creating tax benefits to the son of the President of SL Benfica. The story broke after it was reported that Mr Centeno asked, in the 2016/17 season, for 2 tickets to a Benfica-Porto match directly from the club and that he wanted to be seated in the presidential stand. The minister justified his move for security reasons, but pundits and security experts are rebuffing this. The DA office is reportedly pondering if they open, or not, an investigation about Mr Centeno's actions.


Mário Centeno speaking to the President of Benfica, Luís Felipe Vieira, on Luz Stadium.

The minister of Justice, Francisca Van Dunem, got herself in hot waters after saying, in an interview to TSF radio, that the current attorney general, Joana Marques Vidal, will only have one term because that's what the Constitution says. Ms Marques Vidal is seen as an anti-corruption attorney general and has advocated for a more hard line in the justice system. She has also been a strong supporters of the attorneys and investigators in the case against José Sócrates.


The Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem.

These statements from the minister created a bad reaction from the media and the opposition. The PM has already disavowed his justice minister, saying that nothing is being discussed right now, and many Constitutional experts are saying that there's nothing in the Constitution the blocks a second consecutive term for the attorney general.

Also, related to the PSD leadership campaign, a video has surfaced, from 2013, of Santana Lopes saying he will never again win an election. The video was posted by support groups of Rui Rio, not his campaign.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 03:25:24 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #631 on: January 09, 2018, 09:19:37 pm »

PSD leadership election.

Map of the support from the PSD's 18 district party structures by candidate:



Rio has the support from the big bastions of the PSD: Aveiro, Bragança, Viseu, Vila Real and Leiria; Santana Lopes has the support of the biggest districts in terms of voters: Porto and Lisbon and dominates in the South. Braga, a district that's becoming more and more pró-PSD, and Setúbal didn't support any candidate.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 09:21:39 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #632 on: January 10, 2018, 12:48:54 pm »

Medical marijuana will be voted tomorrow in Parliament, but it's still uncertain if it will pass:


Medical marijuana.

The bill proposed by BE and PAN to legalize medical marijuana will be put before the floor of Parliament tomorrow, but it's fate is still in doubt. The bill is supported by doctors and researchers from the NHS and from private hospitals, and even the former President of the Republic Jorge Sampaio came out in favour of the legalization of medical marijuana.

In terms of party standings on the bill, PS is in favour but will give freedom of vote to its MPs; BE and PAN will vote in favour; CDS will vote against. PSD and CDU are still undecided and will announce their position tomorrow. Nonetheless, the vote is expected to be close.

What seems to be holding back parties isn't the legalization of medical marijuana itself, but the fact that the bill proposed by BE/PAN also allows the self-cultivation of the plant, in limited quantities, by the patient and with the agreement of authorities.
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« Reply #633 on: January 10, 2018, 12:59:54 pm »

PSD leadership election.

Map of the support from the PSD's 18 district party structures by candidate:



Rio has the support from the big bastions of the PSD: Aveiro, Bragança, Viseu, Vila Real and Leiria; Santana Lopes has the support of the biggest districts in terms of voters: Porto and Lisbon and dominates in the South. Braga, a district that's becoming more and more pró-PSD, and Setúbal didn't support any candidate.


What's the electoral system for PSD leadership elections? FPTP or 2 rounds? (Though with only 2 candidates it doesn't really matter)

Also, who is allowed to vote? All Portuguese people over 18? (like France and the USA) Only registered party members who pay membership dues? (like 3/4 parties here) Only those who attend the "PSD national congess"? (like PP here or PSOE up until 2015)
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 01:04:52 pm by tack50 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #634 on: January 10, 2018, 01:08:27 pm »

It's quite simple, wins who has more votes. I don't think the party has second rounds because in 2008, Manuela Ferreira Leite was elected with only 38% of the votes.

Only members members who pay membership dues can vote. The PSD has around 120,000 active members, although the party has a total of 215,000 members but 90,000-95,000 are inactive. To be registered to vote, members have to pay membership dues until a certain date, and for this leadership election, 70,385 members of the PSD are registered to vote.
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Mike88
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« Reply #635 on: January 10, 2018, 07:58:45 pm »

The second debate between the PSD candidates was, once again, focused on the past, but Rui Rio was able to gain some points against Santana:

The second debate, on TVI, between the two candidates for the PSD leadership saw, according to pundits, a much more stronger Rui Rio and a somewhat subdued Santana Lopes. Nonetheless, the debate was once again very focused on the past, particularly in the moves and statements each had in 2004-2005 and in the last few years, but Rio was able to outmaneuver Santana's attacks from the last debate about his remarks of the "mistakes" Santana did as PM. But overall, the debate was a tie.


Debate between Rio and Santana on TVI.

But there were some differences between them in the debate. On the question of what should the PSD do if the PS wins the 2019 general elections without a majority, Rio said he would let Costa govern because he wouldn't do the same thing Costa did to Passos Coelho in 2015, while Santana said he could allow a PS government but only if Costa isn't leading it. Rio, like Santana, added that his goal is to win the 2019 election but, if he fails, he wants to remove BE and CDU from supporting the government. Santana proposed a written agreement with the PS. Other point that was different between both, was the possible 2nd term of the current attorney general, Joana Marques Vidal. Santana said he would support a 2nd term while Rio said this is a non issue.

The last debate is tomorrow morning on TSF/Antena 1 radios.

Link to the debate.
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Mike88
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« Reply #636 on: January 11, 2018, 08:22:34 am »

The Final debate between Rio and Santana was different. Both candidates didn't talk about the past and talked more about the future:

The final debate between Rui Rio and Santana Lopes happened this morning on TSF and Antena 1 radios. The debate was less violent and more focused on each candidates' ideas and policies. Nonetheless, some differences were visible. Rio promissed to put the party "in order", and asked for respect whoever wins the election; Santana agreed and invited Rio to be in his team if he wins the elections.


Rui Rio and Santana Lopes in the final debate on the radio.

In terms of policies, both agree on the urgency of a reduction of corporate taxes, but disagree on some social issues. Rui Rio is open to discuss the legalization of prostitution, while Santana says it's complicated. Rio is also in favour of medical marijuana, while Santana is aligned with the PSD caucus which will vote against the policy.

Rio and Santana are also open to reform the Constitution. Rio wants a shorter and less ideological Constitution, while Santana says he favour reforms in the Constitution in regard on electoral laws. The big argument between both in this last debate, was the entry, or not, of Santa Casa da Misericordia, the largest state charity institution, in the capital of Montepio bank. Rio is totally against saying that the money is to close holes in the bank and that the money in Santa Casa is to help the poor. Santana, who was president of Santa Casa da Misericordia between 2011-2017, responded saying that he did everything to see if the deal was good or not.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 12:55:54 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #637 on: January 11, 2018, 12:54:14 pm »

Parliament cancels vote on medical marijuana and sends the bill to the Health committee for improvements:

After PSD, CDS and PCP announced they would vote against the BE/PAN bill legalizing medical marijuana, Parliament decided to skip the vote and send the bill to Health committee for improvements. Parties agree that marijuana can be used for medicinal practices but PSD, CDS and PCP say that the BE/PAN proposed bill has a secret agenda of making the cultivation of the plant legal and they reject that.

Nonetheless, PSD was going to present a bill to allowing the use of marijuana only for medicinal purposes, so everything points that medical marijuana will be legal in Portugal but only sold in pharmacies or hospitals.
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Mike88
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« Reply #638 on: January 11, 2018, 02:38:52 pm »

Aximage poll on the PSD leadership and preferred PM:

Q: Preferred PSD leader,

All voters:

69.0% Rui Rio

22.5% Santana Lopes
  5.5% Neither
  3.1% No opinion

PSD voters:

60.4% Rui Rio
37.1% Santana Lopes
  1.6% Neither
  0.9% No opinion

Q: Preferred PM,

All voters:

55.7% Costa
33.0% Rui Rio
  8.1% Neither
  2.0% Both/No opinion

PSD voters:

75.6% Rui Rio
  7.8% Costa
16.6% Neither/Both/No opinion

All voters:

71.0% Costa
19.0% Santana Lopes
  8.5% Neither
  1.5% Both/No opinion

PSD voters:

54.9% Costa
29.8% Santana Lopes
15.3% Neither/Both/No opinion
   
Poll conducted between 6 and 9 January 2018. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%
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Mike88
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« Reply #639 on: January 11, 2018, 03:17:11 pm »

Eurosondagem poll on the PSD leadership:

51.1% Santana Lopes
48.9% Rui Rio

Poll conducted between 7 and 9 January 2018. Polled 548 registered members of the PSD. MoE of 4.16%.

PS: This poll was asked by Santana Lopes campaign, so it's more an internal poll.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 05:46:42 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #640 on: January 12, 2018, 11:14:49 am »

POLITICO's take on the PSD leadership race: "Thomson and Thompson battle for control of Portuguese right"

Quote
Their similarities have triggered comparisons with Thomson and Thompson, the hapless lookalike detectives in the Tintin comic strips.

Rio and Santana Lopes are both veteran Social Democratic Party (PSD) bigwigs, which has prompted doubts over their ability to inject new life into a party in urgent need of renewal and which is languishing far behind Prime Minister António Costa’s Socialists in the polls.

Quote
The rivals don’t just look alike. Similarities abound in their programs, each packed with good intentions on investment, innovation and support for public services.

Neither is likely to take the Portuguese right on a radical turn.

Santana Lopes is more conservative. Rio would shift the party closer to the center left and is open to striking deals with Costa and his Socialists.

“We’re not Thomson and Thompson,” Santana Lopes said during last week’s televised debate, telling Rio: “It’s you and António Costa who are Thomson and Thompson, you’re like Siamese twins.”

Quote
For many, however, the real winners in the Social Democrats’ mud-slinging campaign have been Assunção Cristas, youthful leader of the CDS-People’s Party, a smaller conservative outfit on the right of the Social Democrats, and Costa himself.

The prime minister may be more troubled this year with truculent leftist partners and their strike-happy union friends than any resurgence of the PSD.
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Mike88
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« Reply #641 on: January 12, 2018, 01:25:59 pm »

Aximage poll from January:

40.2% PS (+0.3)
26.2% PSD (+0.1)
  9.2% BE (-0.1)
  6.8% CDU (-0.7)
  6.2% CDS (-0.3)
  8.7% Others/Invalid (+1.0)
  2.7% Undecided (-0.3)

Poll conducted between 6 and 9 January 2018. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
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« Reply #642 on: January 12, 2018, 07:17:28 pm »

The campaign for the PSD election is over. Tomorrow, 70,385 members of the party will choose the next leader in 396 precincts across the country. Voting will start as 2:00 pm (9 am in NY) and will close at 20:00 pm (15 pm in NY).

This is a sample ballot that will be given to the voters:


My take on the campaign is that Santana Lopes, right now, is the most likely to win. He was the clear underdog in this race, but was able to gain more and more momentum as the campaign rolled on. He was much more focused on the party, while Rio was much focused on the country, and i don't know if Rio made the right call here. The PSD membership, the core base of the party, may still be heavily bitter after what happened in 2015, and Rio's proposed regime reforms, that would have to include the PS, plus his willingness of not doing what Costa did to Passos Coelho in 2015, may be too much for many party members.

If the PSD election were open to all voters, i would vote for Rio. First because i like him, and second because he doesn't have the past Santana has, and, IMO, in a Santana leadership we could see a very defensive PSD against a PS who will, over and over again, remind voters of the troubled past Santana had. I'm not saying it will be easier for Rio, but, as a PSD regular voter, the risk of electing Santana is higher than electing Rio. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
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Mike88
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« Reply #643 on: January 13, 2018, 11:22:11 am »

Turnout in the PSD elections seems to be quite high. There are long lines in voting sections in Lisbon and Porto.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 11:25:01 am by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #644 on: January 13, 2018, 11:46:49 am »

At the same time the PSD is voting on a new leader, the PS has scheduled their leadership election to be held on 11 and 12 May, with a party congress between 25 and 27 May in Batalha city, Leiria district.

There will be no suspense here. António Costa will, probably, be the sole candidate and will win 97-98% of the votes.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 12:10:38 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #645 on: January 13, 2018, 02:39:17 pm »

Less than half an hour until polls close. Turnout seems high, but we'll only see the full scale of it when all the ballots are counted. The record was 66.3% in 2010.

PSD-Macau released their results and Santana Lopes won there with 70% of the votes.
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Mike88
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« Reply #646 on: January 13, 2018, 07:51:34 pm »

Rui Rio elected new leader of the PSD:

The former mayor of Porto has defeated Pedro Santana Lopes in the PSD leadership elections. Santana Lopes has already conceded defeat. 

With 95% of voting sections counted:

22,611 54.4% Rui Rio
18,974 45.6% Santana Lopes

     440   1.0% Blank
     229   0.5% Invalid

42,254 59.8% Turnout
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Mike88
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« Reply #647 on: January 13, 2018, 08:15:53 pm »

Most voted candidate by district, or party district:

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Josecardoso17
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« Reply #648 on: January 14, 2018, 09:01:21 am »

i think the psd establishment wanted Santana to win ....
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Mike88
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« Reply #649 on: January 14, 2018, 09:20:41 am »

i think the psd establishment wanted Santana to win ....

First of all, welcome to the forum Josecardoso17. Cheesy

Yes, the "establishment", or the Passos Coelho team, all wanted Santana to win. No doubt about that. I really thought Santana might win because of the huge support the "establishment" gave to him in the last few days of the campaign, but it seems that the PSD base was frustrated by the kind of rhetoric and line the party had towards the PS and Costa. In a post above, i said that i wasn't sure if the PSD base wasn't still bitter about 2015, but, the reality, is that they're not.
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