Portugal's politics and elections

[Josecardoso17]

thank you !

I heard some psd voters who received phone calls to go vote in Santana,but that´s some usual stuff xD
I think that what really won the election to Rui Rio was is support in the north and huge turnout there.
Not suprise if psd changes its parlamentary leader to Leitão Amaro and etc.....

Sorry about the poor English xD

[Mike88]

thank you !

I heard some psd voters who received phone calls to go vote in Santana,but that´s some usual stuff xD
I think that what really won the election to Rui Rio was is support in the north and huge turnout there.
Not suprise if psd changes its parlamentary leader to Leitão Amaro and etc.....

Sorry about the poor English xD

Yeah, receiving phone calls and text messages is quite normal in party elections, in national elections it's a whole other issue...

Rio was always going to do quite well in the North, the surprise was that he did better than expected, particularly in Braga, Aveiro and Viseu. The loss of Braga to Rio is also a heavy defeat for the PSD caucus leader, Hugo Soares, who was a supporter of Santana Lopes and president of PSD-Braga, and yes this could mean his days as PSD caucus leader are over. The name of António Leitão Amaro, like you said, is already swirling around. Aveiro, where Rio won 62% of the votes, gave also a bitter result for the possible future candidate for the PSD leadership, Luís Montenegro, the former PSD caucus leader and strong supporter of Santana.

Also, fun fact: Rui Rio lost Lisbon city, 48% to Santana Lopes's 52%, and this may have happened because of his more liberal social policies. His candidate to lead the PSD-Lisbon also lost. Ismael Ferreira, one of Lisbon's strongest PSD voting union leaders and also an evangelical pastor, was a Rio supporter until Rio came out in favour of euthanasia, medical marijuana and a possible discussion to legalize prostitution. After that, Ismael Ferreira changed its mind and supported Santana, a much more conservative candidate, and this might have helped Santana in Lisbon but, overall, it wasn't enough.

[Mike88]

A more detailed map, compared with the one i posted yesterday, about the PSD leadership election results: (from Público newspaper)

[VPH]

Because of Rio's more centrist positioning, do you foresee greater CDS strength?

[Mike88]

Because of Rio's more centrist positioning, do you foresee greater CDS strength?

Right now, it's a bit early to say, but maybe some conservative PSD voters may be appealed by CDS, particularly on social issues, but, if Rio is able to attract centrist/center-left voters from the PS with his message of being a Lisbon outsider who wants to "shake up the regime" with reforms on the justice system, education system and on the economy, those same conservative voters would vote, without any hesitation, in the PSD just to kick Costa out of government.

[Mike88]

Found some local results from the PSD leadership election:

Póvoa de Varzim (my hometown)

153 81.4% Rui Rio
  35 18.6% Santana Lopes

Porto city:

714 75.6% Rui Rio
230 24.4% Santana Lopes

Braga city:

332 57.6% Rui Rio
244 42.2% Santana Lopes

Lisbon city:

1,117 52.3% Santana Lopes
1,019 47.7% Rui Rio

Barcelos city:

500 52.6% Rui Rio
450 47.4% Santana Lopes

The party is still counting, and awaiting for, overseas ballots. The final results will be published this Wednesday.

[Mike88]

Final results of the PSD 2018 leadership election:

22,728 54.2% Rui Rio
19,244 45.8% Santana Lopes

     447   1.1% Blank ballots
     236   0.6% Invalid ballots

42,655 60.3% Turnout

[Josecardoso17]

Do you think Santana is politically dead ?
Because i think he as lost 5 or 6 elections in a row,but he still has some popular support,and people forgot the mess is government was.Not talking about the economy and that stuff ,but the cabinet ministers didn´t knew what post they would have until the day of the swearing of the government and etc.

[Mike88]

Do you think Santana is politically dead ?
Because i think he as lost 5 or 6 elections in a row,but he still has some popular support,and people forgot the mess is government was.Not talking about the economy and that stuff ,but the cabinet ministers didn´t knew what post they would have until the day of the swearing of the government and etc.

In my opinion, in terms of leading some kind of political candidacy, yes. He's 61, in 2020 he would be 63/64, so, yeah, it's basically over. He's popular in some parts of the PSD, while, in the country as a whole, polls says he isn't popular. However, that doesn't mean he's out of the political world. Maybe he could land a possible electable place in the 2019 European election lists, or, even a job in some governmental agency when the PSD returns to power, who knows.

Yeah, that scene, in 2004, when Paulo Portas was stunned to hear he was minister of more stuff than he thought was hilarious. But, the best part of his swearing in as PM, was that awkward silence when Santana decided to skip several pages from his speech, but got confused while reorganizing the pages.

[Mike88]

So, with the PSD leadership election over, it's time to take that off the title. 2018 will be a calm year, if nothing extraordinary happens, in terms of elections around here, however a few local parish by-elections may occur. In 2019, there are 3 major elections schedule to happen: the European elections, the Legislative elections and the Madeira regional elections.

[Josecardoso17]

I have to congratulate you for the topic and your unbiased opinion (something dificult to see in this country xD)

I have another question for you related to the CTT(postal service)

I think that the state did very bad in privatizing the company because it was profitable and because they made a very good service in the past delivering and helping people that lived far from the cities and "from civilization" .I know this because i live near Serra da Estrela.

What do you think about it?

[Mike88]

I have to congratulate you for the topic and your unbiased opinion (something dificult to see in this country xD)

I have another question for you related to the CTT(postal service)

I think that the state did very bad in privatizing the company because it was profitable and because they made a very good service in the past delivering and helping people that lived far from the cities and "from civilization" .I know this because i live near Serra da Estrela.

What do you think about it?

To be honest, i was in favour of the privatization of CTT. Overall, i believe that the state shouldn't run companies. But in the CTT's case, my view is that the problem isn't the privatization itself, the administration is basically the same when it was state owned, but the bad decisions they made after that to have more profit, particularly the postal bank and the stubbornness of wanting to pay the dividends to shareholders in its totality, created this whole mess. The closing of some postal agencies was ridiculous. It echoed the Caixa Geral de Depósitos restructuring, earlier this year, and CTT is already pulling back. I read today that 14, out of 22, agencies will continue to function, but without all services. Wouldn't be surprised if, in the next few months, no agency would be closed.

Nonetheless, the problem, in my view, in Portugal is the total lack of power regulators have. If you have a strong regulator, even if your company is private, the public has the reassurance that any bad practice, or management, that hurts the services and the public, will be punished and corrected.

[Josecardoso17]

I believe that the state should own some strategic companies .The privatization of the CTT was very bad because it wasn´t a significant help to the country´s finances .And because in private hands it is being led to the ridicuolus .I mean,say to the people in other countries this: The postal service in your country is also now a bank.

The lack of regulation is true ,because it is a step back to our economy .It helps the big companys and pushes the small one´s to the ground.

And no major party realises that.But i think if the Socialist Party reaches a majority in the next election they will push some things to change that.Maybe Yes,Maybe Not .Depends in the Political Mood.

[Mike88]

I believe that the state should own some strategic companies .The privatization of the CTT was very bad because it wasn´t a significant help to the country´s finances .And because in private hands it is being led to the ridicuolus .I mean,say to the people in other countries this: The postal service in your country is also now a bank.

The lack of regulation is true ,because it is a step back to our economy .It helps the big companys and pushes the small one´s to the ground.

And no major party realises that.But i think if the Socialist Party reaches a majority in the next election they will push some things to change that.Maybe Yes,Maybe Not .Depends in the Political Mood.

I hear you. But, putting CTT back in the state hands, well, it could end in a bailout, much like Caixa Geral. The privatization agreement, i believe expires this year, so the government could add something else in the agreement to protect postal agencies and services qualities. And knowing Rio, the new PSD leader, he could support something like that. But, renationalisation, Costa was clear that isn't going to happen.

Are you saying PS would change regulators laws and rules?  

[Josecardoso17]

Yes ,because with a majority ,i think the party would turn a bit to the center ,depending a bit from the mood.I think it would also try to mantain a close relation with the left,because the lack of criticism from the left makes everything easier .
The Socialist Party also needs to answer to some of his voting base (some small and medium business) and because it needs contributions(because of the financial state of the party)

[Mike88]

Yes ,because with a majority ,i think the party would turn a bit to the center ,depending a bit from the mood.I think it would also try to mantain a close relation with the left,because the lack of criticism from the left makes everything easier .
The Socialist Party also needs to answer to some of his voting base (some small and medium business) and because it needs contributions(because of the financial state of the party)

With Rio in the helm of the PSD, Costa may have a more open PSD to dialogue and pursue some reforms, although, i believe there will be fights about the degree of reforms: Rio would like to go much further, while Costa would be more low-key and say "not that much".

To be honest, i have strong doubts the PS can get a majority in 2019. I may be wrong, but with BE around 8-9%, CDU around 8%, CDS around 6-7% and PSD around 27-28%, that leaves the PS with around 40% and that's not enough. A strong minority PS is more likely, with around 112 seats. And don't forget that BE/CDU will probably make a strong campaign against a possible PS majority, by remembering voters of the Sócrates years.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from January:

41.3% PS (+1.1)
26.9% PSD (-1.0)
  8.5% BE (-0.1)
  7.0% CDS (+0.1)
  6.9% CDU (-0.1)
  1.8% PAN (+0.1)
  7.6% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 January 2018. Polled 1,018 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

Interesting news coming from Madeira:

The PS-Madeira has elected Emanuel Câmara as its new leader. He defeated the current leader of the party, Carlos Pereira. Emanuel Câmara contested this leadership race with a curious proposal: he will not be the PS's candidate for the 2019 regional elections, but instead will nominate the popular, but controversial, mayor of Funchal, Paulo Cafôfo, who is not a member of the PS. This idea is not unanimous in the PS-Madeira

So, the 2019 Madeira election could be a match between Cafôfo vs Albuquerque, or, Cafôfo vs Calado, the current vice president of Madeira. Miguel Albuquerque, current Pres. of Madeira, has become very unpopular and the PSD is discussing if it's a good idea to renominate Albuquerque again in 2019.

Big elections in Madeira in 2019. The 43 year old rule of the PSD could be in jeopardy.

[Mike88]

Update on the political scene:

Rui Rio has decided to maintain the current leadership of the PSD caucus until the party's congress in mid February. Hugo Soares will continue to be, although temporary, the PSD caucus leader. After the congress, a new PSD caucus leader may be elected.

Also, the election of Rio is creating some discomfort in the BE and CDU. Catarina Martins, BE leader, accused Rio of being from the rightwing who wants a Central Bloc, a PS/PSD coalition, and Jerónimo de Sousa, CDU leader, also alerted about a possible approximation of the PS with the PSD saying "the reactionary projects, from the big capital, (...) want a formal, or informal, recovery of the so-called Central Bloc".

Nonetheless, António Costa has already said he wants to continue his relationship with CDU and BE, saying that if you are well accompanied, there's no need for a change, at the same time he's open to negotiate some policies with the PSD. Or, in other words, Costa wants to work with the Left and the Right. We'll see how BE and CDU react to this in the next few months.

[Mike88]

Today marks the 2nd anniversary of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's election as President of the Republic. Since then, he has been labeled as the "President of Affections" for his constant support and comfort to the people. Because of this, he has also enjoyed sky high approval ratings.

Marcelo's approval ratings from January 2018:

Aximage poll:

87.0% Approve
  4.8% Disapprove

Eurosondagem poll:

72% Approve
  8% Disapprove

[Mike88]

André Ventura announces he will be a candidate for the PSD leadership... in 2020:


André Ventura, PSD member.

The PSD politician who created tons of controversy for his attacks towards the gypsy community, who were labeled as racist but gave the PSD one its best results in Loures city ever, announced, today, he will contest the PSD leadership in 2020. Mr Ventura, who has been called the "Portuguese Donald Trump", although he's not rich, said he has doubts that Rui Rio can lead the PSD to victory in 2019. Adding to this, he doesn't like the proximity that Rio is proposing with the PS, plus he's also against the political correctness that, according to him, Rio is leading the party to.

[Mike88]

Some political headlines:

The DA office is investigating if Mário Centeno, Finance Minister and Eurogroup Chairmain, gave a wedge to the son of SL Benfica President, Luis Felipe Vieira. Mr Centeno is suspected to have given a housing tax exemption to the son of Mr. Felipe Vieira, at the the request of Mr Felipe Vieira himself.


Mário Centeno, Finance Minister.

The Government has confirmed that police agents and DA officials made searches in the Finance ministry building on Friday, and the DA office has also confirmed they are investigating the actions of the Finance Minister.

Also, the PSD congress will happen in 2/3 weeks and the first motions are being presented. One of them is from Carlos Moedas, EU commissioner and possible 2020 contender for the PSD leadership, that proposes the introduction of universal basic income. The motion focuses heavily of social inequalities. The motion is also supported by Pedro Duarte, former JSD leader and, also, a possible candidate for the PSD leadership in 2020.


Carlos Moedas, EU commissioner. Possible candidate for the PSD in 2020.

The motion highlights the "negative impacts of technological changes and of globalization in worsening inequalities", and that the PSD should lead "the fight against inequality and that goes through the adjustment of the model of education and training to the XXI century". If the motion passes in Congress, UBI could be included in the PSD 2019 election manifesto.

[TheSaint250]

Is Ventura like Wauquiez?

[Mike88]

Is Ventura like Wauquiez?

No, compared with Laurent Wauquiez, André Ventura is more moderate. For example, Ventura was in favour of Portugal receiving more refugees. Ventura is more a strict law and order politician, who likes to bring up tabu issues like the gypsy community situation in Portugal, or the race problems between police and the African Portuguese community.

[Mike88]

POLITICO article about Centeno's investigation: Police search offices of Eurogroup President Mário Centeno.

Honestly, i have strong doubts Centeno has anything to do with this. He would have to be incredibly naive to be involved in this.

Nonetheless, some newspapers are suggesting Centeno has already said to Costa that he would resign if he is indicted, or, in Portuguese, arguido.