Portugal's politics and elections

[TheSaint250]

Is Ventura like Wauquiez?

No, compared with Laurent Wauquiez, André Ventura is more moderate. For example, Ventura was in favour of Portugal receiving more refugees. Ventura is more a strict law and order politician, who likes to bring up tabu issues like the gypsy community situation in Portugal, or the race problems between police and the African Portuguese community.

Thank you

[Mike88]

PM António Costa: "Even if Centeno is indicted, i don't see any reason for him to leave the government"

António Costa made his first statement about the ongoing investigation involving the Finance minister, Mário Centeno. The PM said he has "total confidence" in the minister, that nothing that's public, about the case, harms Mr Centeno, and added that even if Centeno is indicted, arguido in Portuguese, there's no reason for him to leave office.

Costa said that it's him that decides who is in the government or not, and added that the accusations towards Mr Centeno are ridiculous. At the same time, the PM acknowledged that these reports had international repercussions, but that he believes it will not damage the good name of Mr Centeno.

[Mike88]

More politicians and office holders are being accused:

The mayor of Vila Verde, Braga district, António Vilela (PSD) is being accused by the DA office of Braga of malfeasance for giving up parking tickets. According to the accusation, the mayor gave orders to not fine motorists who had already been subject of a "notice" from the city parking concessionaire, Sociparque. This decision damaged the public coffers by more than a million euros. He is also being investigated, in another case, for corruption.

In 2017, with these accusations already known, he was re-elected with a bigger majority than in 2013, 51% to the PS's 35%.

Also, two secretaries of state during José Sócrates (PS) governments, were accused by the Prosecution Service of using credit cards, given for public use, to pay for things for their own benefit. José Magalhães and José Conde Rodrigues are accused of purchasing books, magazines and other personal stuff with credit cards to be used only for governmental reasons.

[Mike88]

PSD stops debate on Mário Centeno's investigation in the EU Parliament:

The EPP, European People's Party, wanted to discuss in the EU Parliament the ongoing investigation on Mário Centeno, the Eurogroup chairman and Finance Minister. Manfred Weber, the EPP caucus leader, was ready to put forward a motion to discuss the investigation, but a huge backlash from the PSD, and also CDS, both members of EPP, made Weber drop any discussion in the floor of Parliament. Paulo Rangel, PSD leader in the EU parliament, protested the possible discussion and defended Mr Centeno, saying that "all of this is just a storm in a glass of water".

Even in Portugal, the story has faded. The PSD didn't use the story, only CDS brought it up, but only to express their concern about what this would do to Centeno's image. Like i said in a post before, everything points that he had nothing to do with this, and that all of this a nothingburger.

[Mike88]

Mário Centeno is officially off the hook. The Public Prosecution sent to the archives the case between Centeno and the Benfica tickets:

The DA office of Lisbon and the Public Prosecution, found no evidence that Centeno may had committed crimes of gaining an advantage. Centeno was never really in play, it was basically just noise from the media. But, the bad luck for Mário Centeno was that this case, involving him, was caught in the middle of another corruption case involving Benfica and its President, Luis Felipe Vieira, and other judges who are suspected of being paid to give sentences.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on who is the prefered candidate to lead the Madeira Government:

Q1: Who do you prefer to be President of the Madeira Government in 2019?

39.8% Paulo Cafôfo (PS)
30.2% Miguel Albuquerque (PSD) - Inc.
30.0% Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 and 31 January. Polled 721 voters in Madeira. MoE of 3.64%.

This is the first time that a PS candidate is ahead of the PSD leader in a poll in Madeira.

[Josecardoso17]

do you think PS have a chance of winning in Madeira in 2019?

[Mike88]

do you think PS have a chance of winning in Madeira in 2019?

It's a possibility. One thing is certain, Miguel Albuquerque has been a huge failure as President and the PSD is being hit for his lack of leadership. The PSD Madeira, from what i've read in Madeira newspapers, is considering ditching Albuquerque in favour of Pedro Calado, the vice-president, who seems to be more popular. But, of course the fact the PSD is in power for almost 45 years has its toll.

The PS feels that, with Cafôfo, they have a chance. In fact, he's quite popular but, at the same time, he has a huge team of haters in the PS-Madeira. Will the PS maintain united until 2019? Time will tell. At the moment, the PS-M is stronger, they hold more cities in Madeira than the PSD and Albuquerque's personal ratings helps them, but the national mood will also have a very big influence in these regional elections. In 2014, the PSD was polling at around 32% and were in the verge of losing Madeira, but then they changed its leader, the economy started to improve and the PSD hold on.    

[Mike88]

Comic relief moment. Well, this just happened...

The PS had to apologize to the President of Sporting CP, Bruno de Carvalho, after posting a tweet mocking Mr Carvalho statements in a press conference earlier today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bruno de Carvalho is involved in a weird controversy about his leadership style in Sporting CP. The PS eliminated that tweet shortly after and sent an apology to Sporting's President and its supporters... that had to be re-posted because it had spelling errors:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is not the first time the PS has been embarrassed by twitter. During January, a series of tweets sent from António Costa's twitter page were mocked on social media for its grammar errors.

[Mike88]

Interesting graphics about the Portuguese electorate political positions. From here: Where will the PSD go?

Self-positioning of the Portuguese electorate in the left-right scale: 0=Left; 10=Right


Positioning of political parties, according to voters: 0=Left; 10=Right

[Mike88]

Some very good news, and warning signs, for Costa's government:

First the good news: The economy is strong, for now.

The EU has aligned its forecast with the government, and also say Portugal will continue to experience strong economic growth until 2019, but with a tendency to slow down. The forecast economic growth is:

2017: 2.7%
2018: 2.2%
2019: 1.9%

The job numbers also came out today and they are quite good: Unemployment has drooped to a 9 year low of 8.9% in 2017. In 2017, 151,400 new jobs were created and the overall working population increased to 4,756,600, while the unemployed population drooped to 462,900, a drop of 19.2% compared with 2016.

And here's the warning signs for António Costa:

The economy is growing but it's slowing. If the next general elections happens in the planed date, October 2019, the economic growth would be at the same level it was when the 2015 general elections were held. Costa needs a strong economy above 2% to have a clear case to present to voters, otherwise he could find himself in an uncomfortable position.

And then there's the job numbers. Although the number of jobs created is increasing, the number of precarious jobs, aka time limited job contracts, are not decreasing. In 2017, 22.2% of jobs were precarious, making Portugal the 3rd country with the highest % of jobs with precarious links in the EU, only behind Spain and Poland. And with PCP, and also BE, pressuring the PS government to overturn the PSD/CDS labour reforms of 2012, that Costa has already rejected, tensions between the PS and PCP/BE could escalate.

[Mike88]

Some policy updates:

Euthanasia discussion is back in the spotlight after the BE presented a bill in Parliament to legalize it. The PS will also present legislation in March and wants a final vote of the matter until July. The PSD seems more open about this issue, as Rui Rio is in favour of the legalization of euthanasia. Nonetheless, a group of Catholic doctors are against the legalization, claiming that it will destroy medicine.

Also, the PSD congress will happen in the next weekend, 16-18 February, and a total of 20 proposals will be discussed. Some of them, are raising eyebrows for being too progressive. Some of them are:

- A proposal for the total legalization of marijuana. The proposal wants to make it legal to buy and produce marijuana in Portugal.

- A proposal called "New Social Democracy for New Times" wants to discuss fiscal formats like the Universal Basic Income (UBI), and others fiscal policies.

- A proposal by the Social Democratic Women, the women's wing of the PSD, that wants to change the language in the party rules to make it more inclusive.

The party will also discuss the possibility of PSD supporters, or voters, voting on leadership elections, or that the PSD should say no to any talks with the PS of António Costa.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from February:

Share of vote:

40.6% PS (+0.4)
26.4% PSD (+0.2)
  8.8% BE (-0.4)
  7.7% CDU (+0.9)
  6.2% CDS (n.c.)
  7.7% Others/Invalid (-1.0)
  2.5% Undecided (-0.2)

Popularity ratings (scale between 0 and 20):

12.7 António Costa
12.1 Rui Rio
10.8 Catarina Martins
  9.3 Jerónimo de Sousa
  9.1 Assunção Cristas

Prefered PM:

64.1% Costa
22.0% Rui Rio
13.9% Neither/Both/Other/Undecided

Poll conducted between 3 and 6 February 2018. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

It seems like Santana Lopes will really go to Brussels in 2019. According to Sol newspaper, Rui Rio will ask Santana Lopes to be the headlist of the PSD for the EP election in 2019, and, according to the same newspaper, Santana is inclined to accept. The same newspaper also reports that the PS will likely nominate Ana Catarina Mendes, current deputy secretary general of the party, as the Socialist's headlist to the European elections in 2019.


Left: Santana Lopes (PSD); Right: Ana Catarina Mendes (PS).

So, the 2019 EP elections will probably be a contest between Santana Lopes vs Ana Catarina Mendes. Curiously the only time Santana headed the PSD lists for an EP election, in 1987, he also faced a woman as the PS headlist, Maria Lourdes Pintasilgo, fomer PM (1979-1980). He won 37% to Pintasilgo's 22%.

[Mike88]

Constitutional Court is inclined to struck down Surrogacy Pregnancy law:

According to Expresso newspaper, the Constitutional Court is set to struck down the Surrogacy law, in which a woman agrees to carry a pregnancy for another person or persons. The law was approved by Parliament in May 2016 with the votes of PS, BE, PEV, PAN and 24 MPs from the PSD. But the CDS, and also some PSD MPs, asked the Constitutional Court to speak about the law, claiming it was unconstitutional.

There are already women with surrogacy pregnancies approved and there are concerns about would happen to the couples who used this method. The Portuguese Association of Fertilization has already said that if the law is struck down, it will be "a setback in democracy." Other legislation projects, like the legalization of Euthanasia, could be pull back because of the Court's decision.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Madeira: (compared with Nov. 2017 poll)

38.5% PSD (+2.2), 20/21 seats
33.2% PS (-0.4), 17/18
  6.8% JPP (+0.3), 3
  5.9% CDS (-0.1), 3
  4.9% BE (+0.7), 2
  3.1% CDU (-1.4), 1
  1.4% PTP (-0.7)
  6.2% Others/Invalid (-0.7)

Poll conducted between 5 and 7 February 2018. Polled 1,018 voters in Madeira islands. MoE of 3.07%.

It'still very early but, the selection of Paulo Cafôfo as the PS candidate in 2019 isn't helping the PS, on the contrary. A PSD/CDS coalition is possible, 23/24 seats just in line with the 24 needed for a majority, but a PS/JPP/CDU/BE is also possible with the same 23/24 seats. This is all speculation because the dynamics in Madeira are completely different than in the rest of the country. CDS doesn't have a good relationship with the PSD and the PS also doesn't have a good relationship with CDU, but, at the same time, PS, BE and JPP have supported same candidacies in the 2017 local elections, but, can it work in the regional parliament? Time we'll tell.

[Josecardoso17]

but i think that if in this election ,the winner wins without a majority ,will form government at the same.It happened in azores in 1996 i think .

[Mike88]

but i think that if in this election ,the winner wins without a majority ,will form government at the same.It happened in azores in 1996 i think .

Maybe, but since 2015 anything is possible. And about Azores 1996, interesting story. In that election, PS and PSD tied with 24 seats each and PSD/CDS secretly agreed to form a majority coalition but it was blocked by the then President of the Republic, Jorge Sampaio, on the grounds that who had won the election was the PS, period.

How things changed since then.

[Josecardoso17]

yes,but like in the local elections ,the winners is always the mayor,even that it doesn´t have a majority.That´s why i think that the winner will form government anyways .But as you said anything can happen ,and the decision is always in the hands of the president of the republic in office .Which i think will give the power to the winner(keeping the status quo).

[Mike88]

yes,but like in the local elections ,the winners is always the mayor,even that it doesn´t have a majority.That´s why i think that the winner will form government anyways .But as you said anything can happen ,and the decision is always in the hands of the president of the republic in office .Which i think will give the power to the winner(keeping the status quo).

If the PSD wins, you're right, it will be difficult for a PS-leading coalition in Madeira. If they don't get along with each other within the party, it doesn't bode well for a coalition "geringonça" style. But, it seems that the Madeira electorate isn't very fond about a leftwing coalition:

Q1: If no party gains a majority in 2019, which solution do you prefer?

37.6% PSD/CDS
24.4% PS/CDS
14.5% PS/CDS/BE/CDU/JPP/PTP
23.5% Undecided

Tomorrow, a poll on who would be the best candidate to lead the PSD in Madeira will be published.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on attributes between Rio and Costa:

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Q2: Who would you a buy a car from? (this question, asked many times by pollsters, is used to see the trust each candidate has to be PM.)

38.6% António Costa
35.2% Rui Rio
13.9% Neither
  2.4% Both
  9.8% No opinion

Poll conducted between 3 and 6 February. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

The 37th congress of the PSD is to start tonight. Until Sunday, the party will meet to establish Rui Rio as the party's new president, plus many motions, some of them very controversial, will be discussed and voted.


PSD congress in Lisbon

The opposition of Rui Rio will also be heard as they are pressing him to not make many approaches towards the PS and to present a clear alternative against Costa and PS.

The congress has 950 delegates, plus 250 participants and more than 1,000 observers

[Mike88]

Rui Rio's 1st speech in the PSD congress. He will give the final speech on Sunday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MzZOu7G-wo

(It can be translated: Português->Inglês)

[Mike88]

The PSD congress ended this Sunday afternoon. Rui Rio is now officially the new party leader and leader of the opposition. The progress started in a positive note with the party trying to unite around Rio, but some of Rio's choices for his team created discomfort in large parts of the delegates. One of them was the choice of Elina Fraga, former bar association leader, as one of his deputies. Ms Fraga was a fierce critic, and opponent, of the PSD/CDS government policies in the justice sector, so, for many delegates she isn't a very positive figure. She received some boos when her name was announced.

Other than that, the congress was less combative than expected, although some party figures, like Luis Montenegro, possible candidate in the future for the leadership, wasn't very open to Rio and will see how Rio performes as leader.


Rui Rio giving his speech.

In his final speech, under the slogan "Portugal First", Rio defended a strong approach that helps to solve the country's main problems, like the low birth rate, the rapid aging of the population or the excessive centralization in Portugal, adding, at the same time, that "The state is not strong when it gets into everything, for everything and for nothing. The state is strong when it frees the citizens." He defended more support for business and innovators, which, he said, the current government is neglecting. He also proposed to strengthen the middle class and is open to dialogues with the PS, and other parties, to solve Portugal's problems.

Rui Rio's final speech in the PSD congress.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjeSB3-bJeE

(It can be translated: Português->Inglês)

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on agreements between the PS and the left or the right:

Q: Which is better for the Portuguese, that the PS give priority to left-wing understandings with the BE and PCP, or give priority to understandings on the right, with the PSD and CDS?

All voters:

47.5% Left (BE, PCP)
39.6% Right (PSD, CDS)
12.9% Both/Neither/Undecided

By party:

PS

69.5% Left (BE, PCP)
21.1% Right (PSD, CDS)
  2.5% Both
  1.1% Neither
  5.8% Undecided

PSD

83.2% Right (PSD, CDS)
  8.6% Left (BE, PCP)
  3.8% Both
  2.3% Neither
  2.1% Undecided
 
BE

88.7% Left (BE, PCP)
  7.5% Right (PSD, CDS)
  2.3% Both
  1.5% Undecided

CDS

91.6% Right (PSD, CDS)
  4.7% Left (BE, PCP)
  3.7% Both

PCP

94.5% Left (BE, PCP)
  2.1% Right (PSD, CDS)
  3.3% Undecided

Poll conducted between 3 and 6 February 2018. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%