Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from March:

39.2% PS (-1.4)
27.0% PSD (+0.6)
10.0% BE (+1.2)
  7.4% CDU (-0.3)
  5.4% CDS (-0.7)
  8.7% Others/Invalid (+1.0)
  2.3% Undecided (-0.2)

Popularity ratings (scale between 0 and 20):

13.6 António Costa
11.6 Rui Rio
11.3 Catarina Martins
  9.9 Jerónimo de Sousa
  9.3 Assunção Cristas

Preferred PM:

62.9% Costa
27.8% Rui Rio
  9.3% Neither/Both/Other/Undecided

Poll conducted between 2 and 5 March 2018. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

CDS congress started today and will end tomorrow:


Assunção Cristas speaking in the CDS congress in Lamego.

CDS will reelect Assunção Cristas as their leader in the party congress during this weekend in Lamego, Viseu District. The congress happens in a time when the CDS feels they have the upper hand over the PSD. Many CDS politicians, and even Cristas herself, say that their goal is to make CDS the biggest party in the center-right. Nonetheless, this idea seems remote, as the Aximage poll from yesterday can confirm, and even many within the CDS doubt if it is a good idea the CDS going solo in the 2019 elections, rather than in a coalition with the PSD.

[Former President tack50]

Actually, unless CDS is expected to drop out, running alone is usually a better choice in my opinion for 2 reasons:

1: In politics 2+2 =/= 4. In other words if PSD is at 30 and CDS at 5 the coalition won't get 40% but a bit less

2: They have more autobomy and airtime instead of being a PSD appendix

[Mike88]

Actually, unless CDS is expected to drop out, running alone is usually a better choice in my opinion for 2 reasons:

1: In politics 2+2 =/= 4. In other words if PSD is at 30 and CDS at 5 the coalition won't get 40% but a bit less

2: They have more autobomy and airtime instead of being a PSD appendix

About the air time and autonomy, i agree with you. CDS has to be out of the PSD shadow, although this shadow was quite good for them in the past, particularly in the 2015 elections. About the lists, i disagree. The electoral system favours coalitions, so with the PSD and CDS running separately, they will always have fewer seats than if they were running together. An example, using the numbers you posted Tack:

Running in separate lists:

38% PS, 105 seats
30% PSD, 84
  9% BE, 17
  8% CDU, 16
  5% CDS, 6
  2% PAN, 2

Running in a joint list:

38% PS, 100 seats
35% PSD/CDS, 95
  9% BE, 18
  8% CDU, 16
  2% PAN, 1

[Former President tack50]

Sure but my point was that even on that scenario the joint list wouldn't get 35% but more like 32%. Of course it could still be worth it in the end since it seems that Portugal's system is very similar to ours (and thus punishes small parties unless they are regional based, but those are illegal in Portugal anyways).

[Mike88]

Sure but my point was that even on that scenario the joint list wouldn't get 35% but more like 32%. Of course it could still be worth it in the end since it seems that Portugal's system is very similar to ours (and thus punishes small parties unless they are regional based, but those are illegal in Portugal anyways).

According to that poll, they would get 32%, yes, but it isn't that difficult for PSD and CDS to gather 35-36% of the votes in a general election. The lowest they polled, running together or separately, was in 1975 winning 34% of the votes, and more recently the worst results they had was in 2005, winning just 36%. And don't forget that CDS is almost always underestimated by polls by around 2-3%, while PSD isn't.

Anyway, more news on the CDS congress. This congress in being filed with ideas and more and more suggestions that CDS can, and will, surpass PSD as the largest party in the center-right and that Cristas can become PM. At the same time, Cristas was reelected with fewer votes than in her election two years ago. She won 89.2% of the votes, while in 2016 she won 95.6%. Her list also lost 3 seats to other more conservative lists.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Anyway, more news on the CDS congress. This congress in being filed with ideas and more and more suggestions that CDS can, and will, surpass PSD as the largest party in the center-right and that Cristas can become PM.

Is there a reason for this outbreak of... exuberance?

[Mike88]

Anyway, more news on the CDS congress. This congress in being filed with ideas and more and more suggestions that CDS can, and will, surpass PSD as the largest party in the center-right and that Cristas can become PM.

Is there a reason for this outbreak of... exuberance?

First reason, CDS polled ahead of the PSD in Lisbon city, 21% vs 11%, in the October local elections. This happened because the PSD literally chose a candidate at the last minute and didn't even tried to support her. The 2nd reason is that many, on the right, see Rui Rio as too centrist and fell that CDS could steal some voters from PSD. Will it work? Until now, nothing has changed, and according to that poll i posted above, the opposite is happening.

[Mike88]

Political news update:

A lot of strikes this week: On Monday, railway workers went on strike in protest for the low increase on wages the company Portugal Infrastructures is proposing. Workers unions want a 4% increase in wages while the company only proposes less than 1%. Over the day, of the more than 1,300 trains schedule to run only 300 ran. Unions say that the strike was a success, with 90% of workers responding positively to the strike. All of this happens at the same time a report of the state of the railways in Portugal is unveiled. The reports finds that 60% of all railways in Portugal are in very bad shape.


Train stopped in Campanhã station, Porto.

Teachers are also on strike this week. During 4 days, from Tuesday to Friday, teachers in all regions of the country will strike against the government. Today, Tuesday, 13th March, teachers in Lisbon and Madeira went on strike, although in Madeira the strike is very low because there is already an agreement between the PSD regional government and the unions, on Wednesday teachers in the Center region will strike, on Thursday it's the turn for teachers in the South and Friday for teachers in the North and Azores. The strike happens as the negotiations between the government and the unions ended in failure. Teachers want the 9 years of no progressions in their careers to be counted but the government refuses and only wants to count the last 2 years and 10 months.  

Prision guards are also on strike against the government. Porto prisons are today on strike, while Lisbon's, and others, had been on strike a few days ago. Prision guards unions are against the government's new working hours lists. There could be a protest in front of Parliament during this month. Public workers unions will also protest, on Friday, against the government's slow attack on the precariousness of public workers.


Feliciano Barreiras Duarte, general-secretaty of the PSD

There is also some controversy around the new general-secretaty of the PSD, Feliciano Barreiras Duarte. Mr. Barreiras Duarte is suspected of falsely using the title of "Professor" from the University of California in Berkeley. The problem is that he was never a professor there and was forced to change his CV.

[Mike88]

Feliciano Barreiras Duarte, general-secretaty of the PSD

There is also some controversy around the new general-secretaty of the PSD, Feliciano Barreiras Duarte. Mr. Barreiras Duarte is suspected of falsely using the title of "Professor" from the University of California in Berkeley. The problem is that he was never a professor there and was forced to change his CV.

The DA office has open an inquiry about this. In declarations to SIC TV, Mr. Barreiras Duarte said be was warned that some people within the PSD were spreading news to damage Rui Rio's team.

Also this from Freixo de Espada à Cinta, Bragança district: The former deputy mayor, Pedro Mora (PS), confessed that he diverted public money because he was blackmailed by his lover, a Brazilian stripper. Pedro Mora diverted almost 9,500 euros from a public company to his accounts.

[Mike88]

More on the controversy surrounding the PSD general secretary:

Feliciano Barreiras Duarte, PSD general secretary, has said he's open to work with the DA office, about his investigation, and refuses to resign from his office. In a statement sent to the press, says he did nothing wrong and will calmly wait for the inquiry results adding that his family and friends are being hurted and reinforcing the idea that all of this is being done by people in the PSD to damage Rui Rio's image.

More corruption investigations are underway also. The mayor of Covilhã, Vitór Pereira (PS), is being charged with crime of prevarication of a holder of political office. He, and a former chairman of the municipal assembly, Manuel Santos Silva, are being accused of ignoring 2 court rulings that obligated Santos Silva of paying 400,000 euros he had in debt to the city of Covilhã about a land he had to give to the city according to an very old agreement. The mayor of Covilhã could be ousted from his office because of this accusation.  

Josecardoso17 said in a few posts before, he was from the Serra da Estrela region, where Covilhã is located. Jose, do you know more things about this case?

[Josecardoso17]

I don´t know much about this especific case,because i still live a bit far from Covilhã(i live in Oliveira do Hospital).But i can tell that this cases are very common around the region.There are reports of crimes like these supposedly commited by mayors , parish presidents and etc...But usually these cases don´t receive great attention of the media,and they end in nothing most of the times or they don´t even get to court .But because of the importance of Covilhã its normal that receives greater coverage.Sometimes these cases don´t even affect the incumbent at all.

[Mike88]

I don´t know much about this especific case,because i still live a bit far from Covilhã(i live in Oliveira do Hospital).But i can tell that this cases are very common around the region.There are reports of crimes like these supposedly commited by mayors , parish presidents and etc...But usually these cases don´t receive great attention of the media,and they end in nothing most of the times or they don´t even get to court .But because of the importance of Covilhã its normal that receives greater coverage.Sometimes these cases don´t even affect the incumbent at all.

Yeah, this kind of corruption actions are quite normal in local politics. In Covilhã he actually won by a landslide. But of course, in Covilhã the PSD presented a candidate that has disappeared after stealing money from a Jewish museum. Classic.

By-election called for Vacalar Parish, Armamar Municipality, Viseu District:

Vacalar parish, population of 205, will have a by-election next May 20th to elect members for a new Parish Assembly. According to the official election calling, the by-election was called because there wasn't enough quorum to elect the Parish President and that all members of the assembly resigned. This is weird because the PSD won here unopposed:

2017 election results in Vacalar Parish:

81.3% PSD, 7 seats
10.9% Blank ballots
  7.8% Invalid ballots

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on political topics:

Q1: The agreements between PSD and PS on decentralization and community funds are?

59.4% Insufficient
12.0% Sufficient
28.6% Don't know/Undecided

Q2: In which areas do you think PSD and PS should come together?

41.3% Health care
18.0% Justice system
16.7% Social Security
11.5% Education
  6.0% Others
  6.5% Don't know/Undecided

Q3: How do you rate Assunção Cristas compared with Paulo Portas, former CDS leader?

42.1% Same
26.6% Worse
20.0% Better
11.3% Don't know/Undecided

Q4: How do you rate the CDS, politically, at the moment?

46.7% A party that competes for the same electorate as the PSD
36.5% A party to the right of the PSD
  6.8% A party to the left of the PSD
10.0% Don't know/Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 March. 2018. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%

[Zanas]

Anyway, more news on the CDS congress. This congress in being filed with ideas and more and more suggestions that CDS can, and will, surpass PSD as the largest party in the center-right and that Cristas can become PM.

Is there a reason for this outbreak of... exuberance?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magical_thinking

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from March:



Poll conducted between 8 and 14 March 2018. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%

[Mike88]

Anyway, more news on the CDS congress. This congress in being filed with ideas and more and more suggestions that CDS can, and will, surpass PSD as the largest party in the center-right and that Cristas can become PM.

Is there a reason for this outbreak of... exuberance?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magical_thinking

Yeah... But it seems they aren't trying enough. LOL

But seriously, the PSD is in a bit of a bad moment, with the internal anger towards Rio plus some controversies surrounding his team, but they are increasing and closing the gap, still a big one, with the PS while CDS is falling. It's kind of surprising.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from March:

Popularity ratings:



Poll conducted between 8 and 14 March 2018. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%

[Mike88]

Rui Rio is waiting for the resignation of his general secretary:


Barreiras Duarte, first from the right, next to Rui Rio.

The PSD establishment is very upset by the way Feliciano Barreiras Duarte, the party's general secretary, is handling the controversy surrounding his title of professor from the University of California and many want him to quit as soon as possible. According to Diário de Notícias newspaper, Rio himself is waiting for his resignation. One of Rio's vice presidents, Castro Almeida, also said, in an interview on Antena 1 radio, that things aren't going well and that he knows his friend, Mr Barreiras Duarte, is considering if he has the conditions to continue in his job.

Also, Barreiras Duarte will not accompany Rui Rio in the EPP summit next week, giving more signs that he may be out by next week.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on post 2019 government scenarios:

Q1: If no party gains a majority in 2019, should Costa and Rio form a Central Bloc between PS and PSD?

45.0% No
44.4% Yes
10.6% Don't Know/Undecided

Q2: Do you believe that there are conditions for another PS/BE/CDU agreement in 2019?

54.7% Yes
30.7% No
14.6% Don't Know/Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 March 2018. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%

[Mike88]

Barreiras Duarte resigns as PSD general secretary:


Barreiras Duarte in the TSF radio interview.

Feliciano Duarte Barreiras announced, in an interview to TSF radio, that he is no longer general secretary of the PSD as he has tendered his resignation to Rui Rio, which, according to him, he accepted immediately. In the interview he said he walks out with a clean conscience, adding that there are people in Rio's team that will also be hit by some bad press because there are people, inside the PSD, who are trying to undermine Rio and want him to fail.

This resignation was expected as the media was reporting that Rio had said, privately, that if Barreiras Duarte didn't resign until Sunday night, he would act and would ditch his general secretary himself.

Update: At first it seemed that Adão Silva would be the successor of Barreiras Duarte, but, according to some sources, Rio wants an "unifying" general secretary, in a way for him to have more control over his internal opposition.

[Mike88]

I don´t know much about this especific case,because i still live a bit far from Covilhã(i live in Oliveira do Hospital).

Just realized this Jose, you live in a swing municipality, unlike me. Oliveira do Hospital has voted with the winner of every general election since 1999. If in 2019, the PS has a big early lead from the more rural areas of Oliveira do Hospital, Costa will win by a landslide.

[Mike88]

Rio chose José Silvano as general-secretary of the PSD:


José Silvano speaking in Parliament.

Rio chose José Silvano, MP from Bragança district, as the new general secretary of the PSD. He's 61 years old, was mayor of Mirandela, Bragança district and was also the leader of the PSD district party in Bragança. José Silvano will start functions immediately but his name has to be ratifed by the party's National Political Committee, where Rio doesn't have a majority, 34 out of 70. It's not clear, yet, if Rio's choice is being well received, or not, by the party.

IMO, it's not a very wise choice but... well, what can you do.

[Josecardoso17]

I don´t know much about this especific case,because i still live a bit far from Covilhã(i live in Oliveira do Hospital).

Just realized this Jose, you live in a swing municipality, unlike me. Oliveira do Hospital has voted with the winner of every general election since 1999. If in 2019, the PS has a big early lead from the more rural areas of Oliveira do Hospital, Costa will win by a landslide.

yes,but those areas are considered sleeping leaning right-wing areas so suprising things could happen and the CDS is investing there.And there is also the effect of the wildfires that almost killed us .But if everything goes correct,that is what is gonna happen.As you said ,if the PS as a big lead, in a area hit by such a disaster ,well...in a areas without a disaster xD
Did you saw that from the CNE website ,right?

[Mike88]

I don´t know much about this especific case,because i still live a bit far from Covilhã(i live in Oliveira do Hospital).

Just realized this Jose, you live in a swing municipality, unlike me. Oliveira do Hospital has voted with the winner of every general election since 1999. If in 2019, the PS has a big early lead from the more rural areas of Oliveira do Hospital, Costa will win by a landslide.

yes,but those areas are considered sleeping leaning right-wing areas so suprising things could happen and the CDS is investing there.And there is also the effect of the wildfires that almost killed us .But if everything goes correct,that is what is gonna happen.As you said ,if the PS as a big lead, in a area hit by such a disaster ,well...in a areas without a disaster xD
Did you saw that from the CNE website ,right?

The funds and the financial compensations for victims of the wildfires are starting to be released or, at least, announced. Maybe that will help the PS. By the way, how is the reconstruction going?, particularly that industrial park that was devastated?

CDS may have committed an error by asking that lady from Pedrógão Grande, who heads an organization demanding responses and responsibilities because of the wildfires, to be part of CDS's team to write their 2019 manifesto. There are people upset there. We'll see how it plays out.

Yes, i saw some maps from the CNE website, but they don't have numbers by municipality, as their format is quite old and outdated. I saw more complete numbers from Marktest website:

http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/p/id~13d.aspx

The most recent election can be viewed by everyone, but to see the rest of them, you just need to be registered in the website and you can see all the results since 1975, from local elections to legislative elections.