Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from May:

Vote share:

37.7% PS (-0.3)
27.6% PSD (+0.9)
10.0% BE (n.c.)
  7.7% CDU (n.c.)
  6.7% CDS (-0.3)
  8.2% Others/Invalid (+0.1)
  2.1% Undecided (-0.3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

12.6 António Costa
11.0 Rui Rio
10.9 Catarina Martins
  9.6 Jerónimo de Sousa
  8.8 Assunção Cristas

Preferred PM:

59.8% António Costa (-2.0)
29.0% Rui Rio (+2.6)

Poll conducted between 5 and 9 May 2018. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Provisional results: Costa reelected as PS leader with 96% of the votes:

António Costa won a 3rd term as PS leader. With 86% of the votes counted, Costa won 96% of the votes against the 4% of his challenger, Daniel Adrião. The results are still provisional and the final tally, with turnout numbers, will be announced later. Costa also won, until the moment, 1,668 delegates to the congress, while Adrião has won just 36 delegates.

[Mike88]

Voting trends graphic with the most recent polls:

From here.



A slight trend downwards for the PS, added with a slight trend upwards for the PSD. No changes in the 3 smaller parties. Remarkably stable.

[Mike88]

Euthanasia legalization will be voted on 29 May:

MPs will vote to legalize, or not, euthanasia practices in Portugal. At the request of CDS, the vote will be member by member, not by party groups. At the moment, these are the party standings for the crucial vote:

PSD - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
PS - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
BE - In Favour
CDS - Against
PCP - Undecided
PEV - In Favour
PAN - In Favour

Because of this vote, religious communities in Portugal - Islamic, Jewish, Buddhists, Hindu, Bahia, Catholic, Protestant, Evangelic and Adventists - all signed a common document stating their opposition to the legalization of euthanasia. The document will be sent to the President of the Republic, which will have to decide if he signs in the law, vetoes it or sends it to the Constitutional Court, if it passes in Parliament, of course.

[VPH]

Euthanasia legalization will be voted on 29 May:

MPs will vote to legalize, or not, euthanasia practices in Portugal. At the request of CDS, the vote will be member by member, not by party groups. At the moment, these are the party standings for the crucial vote:

PSD - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
PS - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
BE - In Favour
CDS - Against
PCP - Undecided
PEV - In Favour
PAN - In Favour

Because of this vote, religious communities in Portugal - Islamic, Jewish, Buddhists, Hindu, Bahia, Catholic, Protestant, Evangelic and Adventists - all signed a common document stating their opposition to the legalization of euthanasia. The document will be sent to the President of the Republic, which will have to decide if he signs in the law, vetoes it or sends it to the Constitutional Court, if it passes in Parliament, of course.

Jeez, I hadn't even seen this on the news. Seems like all they've been talking about is the insane mess that Sporting has become.

[Mike88]

Jeez, I hadn't even seen this on the news. Seems like all they've been talking about is the insane mess that Sporting has become.

The Sporting mess has already turned political, basically. Marcelo and Ferro Rodrigues have criticized Bruno de Carvalho, Sporting's President, and Ferro Rodrigues was especially harsher than Marcelo towards Bruno de Carvalho. Carvalho has already said he will sue the 2nd highest figure of the Portuguese state. This is how things are involving.

António Costa has also announced he will propose new laws to tackle violence in sports, although there is one similar proposed law that is in a coma for more than a year.

[DC Al Fine]

Euthanasia legalization will be voted on 29 May:

MPs will vote to legalize, or not, euthanasia practices in Portugal. At the request of CDS, the vote will be member by member, not by party groups. At the moment, these are the party standings for the crucial vote:

PSD - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
PS - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
BE - In Favour
CDS - Against
PCP - Undecided
PEV - In Favour
PAN - In Favour

Because of this vote, religious communities in Portugal - Islamic, Jewish, Buddhists, Hindu, Bahia, Catholic, Protestant, Evangelic and Adventists - all signed a common document stating their opposition to the legalization of euthanasia. The document will be sent to the President of the Republic, which will have to decide if he signs in the law, vetoes it or sends it to the Constitutional Court, if it passes in Parliament, of course.

What share of PS and PSD legislators are expected to vote for the bill?

[Mike88]

Euthanasia legalization will be voted on 29 May:

MPs will vote to legalize, or not, euthanasia practices in Portugal. At the request of CDS, the vote will be member by member, not by party groups. At the moment, these are the party standings for the crucial vote:

PSD - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
PS - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
BE - In Favour
CDS - Against
PCP - Undecided
PEV - In Favour
PAN - In Favour

Because of this vote, religious communities in Portugal - Islamic, Jewish, Buddhists, Hindu, Bahia, Catholic, Protestant, Evangelic and Adventists - all signed a common document stating their opposition to the legalization of euthanasia. The document will be sent to the President of the Republic, which will have to decide if he signs in the law, vetoes it or sends it to the Constitutional Court, if it passes in Parliament, of course.

What share of PS and PSD legislators are expected to vote for the bill?

The PSD is very divided on this issue, so it's expected to go around 50/50 on the final vote. The PS will, overall, vote in favour of the bill, as the PS was one of the proponents of the new bill but decided to give freedom of vote anyway. In the PS, probably 85-90% of their MPs will vote in favour.  

[Mike88]

Some weird controversies:

The mayor of Castelo Branco signs contracts with a company with connections with his father and his wife:


Luís Correia, Mayor of Castelo Branco since 2013.

The mayor of Castelo Branco city, Luís Correia (PS), has signed two contracts with a company that has as partners, his father and his wife, a MP also from the PS. The contracts were direct, meaning there wasn't a selection between several companies, as it is custom, sort of. While Mr Correia was a councillor, between 1997 and 2013, he also signed deals with the same company. The mayor reacted in a very weird way. After the story broke in Público newspaper, he said that it was a "mistake", and that he didn't realize that his father's signature was in the contracts.

Luís Correia may be in trouble now because the law forbides this kind of deals and the penalty is removal from office. The DA office will have to see if it puts forward charges against the mayor. We'll see how this plays out.

Also, António Costa is involved in a weird real estate deal: Costa, and his wife, bought a house for 50.000 euros and then sold it for 100.000 euros eight months after:


António Costa and his wife, Fernanda Tadeu.

During his term in office, since November 2015, Costa has made several real estate deals. One of them is a house in Lisbon, near the PS headquarters in Lisbon, which he bought from an old couple for 50.000 euros. The old couple say they are shocked by the news, because the PM's wife told them that the house was for their daughter to live in. He then rehabilitated the house and sold it, 8 months later, in April 2017, for 100.000 euros. Nothing wrong here, unless this: First, the house was worth around 120.000 euros, according to real estate companies, and second, this goes against the PS, and Costa's, policies and speech towards the housing crisis. Costa and the PS have been very critical of the "real estate speculation" in Lisbon and Porto, in which houses are bought and sold for prices below their real value. So, all of this doesn't flatter António Costa.

Adding to this, some sad news: António Arnaut, the know "Father of the NHS" has died at age 82. RIP.

[Mike88]

Vacalar parish by-elections, PSD wins:

The PSD has hold on to Vacalar parish. The party won last Sunday's by-elections over an independent movement of "PSD dissidents" called Progress for All (PPT). The PSD got 79 votes, the PPT 67 votes and 4 votes were Invalid (2 Blank and 2 Null). The results were the following:

52.7% PSD, 4 seats
44.7% PPT, 3
  2.7% Blank/Invalid

77.3% Turnout

Next Sunday, there will be another local by-election in the parish of Croca, Penafiel.

[Mike88]

Another controversy: Deputy Minister, Pedro Siza Vieira, accumulated a management job in a real estate firm while he was already a minister:

Pedro Siza Vieira, deputy minister of Costa's government, is in a center of a controversy. One day before he was sworn in to the government, Mr Siza Vieira created, alongside his wife, a real estate consulting firm where he was a management partner. This function continued after he was sworn in as minister in October 2017. The problem is that this hits the incompatibility laws, and the highest penalty is removal from office. He even forgot to mention this to the Constitutional Court when he delivered his tax returns, as he is obliged by law.


Pedro Siza Vieira, deputy minister.

The minister has confirmed the report, saying that he didn't knew that he couldn't accumulate both jobs at the same time, adding that he immediately resigned from his post in the firm, but hasn't notified the Constitutional Court yet. He also added that his real estate firm didn't had any deals with public entities nor did he received any salary for his position as management partner, which would clearly violate the law.

This is the second time, in a short period of time, that Pedro Siza Vieira is in hot waters. A few days ago, it was reported the he had met with the Chinese shareholders of EDP, Energies of Portugal, which he denied, but the Chinese shareholders, China Three Gorges, confirmed they met with the minister to talk about "regulations". China Three Gorges has since then offered a Takeover of EDP. The minister, shortly after the takeover was announced, asked the PM to be removed from any dealings involving the energy sector, a decision that surprised pundits and the media. The PSD has already asked the minister why did he excused himself, but, until now, he hasn't responded to the main opposition party.

[Mike88]

PCP will vote against Euthanasia legalization:

PCP will join CDS in the vote against Euthanasia, throwing the final decision to the PSD, which is quite split on this issue. So, Euthanasia will probably pass next week in Parliament, but it will still have to pass the approval of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and/or the Constitutional Court.

Also, António Costa tried to clear his deputy minister, Pedro Siza Vieira, of any wrongdoing. In the PMs Q&A in Parliament, Costa said "no one is free from mistakes", and he also used this excuse to explain his controversial real estate deal, saying he did "mistakes in the past" because he was unaware of what the law obliged.

[Mike88]

PCP will join CDS in the vote against Euthanasia, throwing the final decision to the PSD, which is quite split on this issue. So, Euthanasia will probably pass next week in Parliament, but it will still have to pass the approval of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and/or the Constitutional Court.

It seems that the PSD is not that split after all. After a caucus meeting today, the PSD caucus leader, Fernando Negrão, said that a large majority of the PSD MPs will vote against the legalization of Euthanasia. And adding to this, both PSD and PS aren't shutting the door to a possible postponement of the vote, schedule to 29th May. So, if the vote does happen, the Euthanasia vote will be very, very close and it can go either way.

Also, regarding the Siza Vieira case, the DA office has opened an investigation to see if the minister did or didn't broke the law

[Mike88]

PSD wants to expel party members charged with corruption:

The PSD's national council will vote, next week, on a new party rule in which party members charged with corruption will be expelled from the party. Rui Rio, PSD leader, has confirmed this and said that this may also be extended to party members charged with corruption in the past.

[Mike88]

And there's another one: Youth and Sports Secretary also accumulated a management job in his own company:


João Paulo Rebelo, secretary for youth and sports.

João Paulo Rebelo, secretary for youth and sports in Costa's government, also accumulated a job in his own company while he was already part of the government. The secretary is a member of the government since April 2016, but only resigned from his other job in January 2018. He owns a company dedicated to the exploitation of blueberries. The secretary has already reacted to these reports, saying they are true and that he also didn't knew about the incompatibilities and immediately resigned from his post in the company when he was informed by the Parliamentary services.

This is the second member of Costa's government hitting a red line towards the law. Minister Siza Vieira is already being investigated by the DA office, the Youth and Sports Secretary may have a similar fate.


Workers giving the final touches in the PS congress stage. The slogan is "A Better Portugal".

All of this happens when the PS congress is starting. The Socialists will combine in Batalha city, curiously, one of the least PS cities in the country, between this Friday until Sunday. But the congress is being haunted by the Sócrates/Pinho corruption cases and also by the Siza Vieira case.

[VPH]

Here's hoping the euthanasia bill fails. Would love to see some principled members of PS vote against it.

[Mike88]

Here's hoping the euthanasia bill fails. Would love to see some principled members of PS vote against it.

Actually, i'm in favour of euthanasia legalization. If the law is well made and sets out very strict rules on how to use it, i'm in favour, but the outcome of the bill is still very, very uncertain. Here's the current state of voting intentions:

In Favour: majority of PS MPs (until now, only 1 MP will vote against); at least 7 MPs from PSD; all BE MPs; all PEV MPs; 1 PAN MP. This gives, without counting possible abstentions, 114 votes in favour.

Against: majority of PSD MPs (at least 82); all CDS MPs; all PCP MPs. This gives, also without counting possible abstentions, 116 votes against.

The abstentions, in the PS and PSD, plus the exact number of PSD MPs that will vote in favour will be crucial. But, like i said in a post above, the vote can still be postponed and it has to pass the approval of the President of the Republic, Marcelo is a staunch Catholic, so he may veto the law, and the President, or parties and/or movements against Euthanasia, can also send the bill to the Constitutional Court, which can, if the surrogacy law is seen as a precedent, struck down the Euthanasia bill.

And then, there's the idea, of some MPs, of calling a referendum about this issue. So, a lot can still happen until the law is in fact, or not, established.

[Mike88]

The Euthanasia debate has escalated in the last few hours, after being almost muted in the last few weeks:

Cavaco Silva, former PM, 1985-1995, and PR, 2006-2016, said he's totally against Euthanasia and said he cannot vote for a party that supports it. Don't know if this a criticism of Rio because Cavaco supported him in the leadership elections, and because the PSD doesn't have a clear position.

And then, the support page for the Euthanasia legalization movement on Facebook, with a video of celebrities supporting the bill that more than 500,000 views, was deleted by Facebook. The leaders of the movement blame the anti-euthanasia side for the blockade.

My hunch, now, is that the vote will probably postponed sine die. If the marijuana vote was canceled, why would a more polarizing vote happen insted? We'll see.

[Mike88]

PS's 22nd congress is starting right now:


The stage of the PS congress. The late Mário Soares is a central figure in the congress.

The Socialists congress is starting tonight in Batalha city, Leiria district. The main questions of these congress are if anyone will talk about Sócrates, and another topic that has come to dominate conversation is: Who will succeed Costa? Right now, the strongest contender is Pedro Nuno Santos, Parliamentary secretary. He is from the "young turks" of the PS and is from the left faction of the Socialists. He is proposing a motion in the congress:


Pedro Nuno Santos.

In his motion, Pedro Nuno Santos is against Private-Public Partnerships in roads, hospitals, etc, and says the state should focus more on social and economic innovations with more interventions in the economy, rather than only in helping the poor.

If you understand Portuguese, somewhat, Expresso and Observador newspapers will have full coverage of the congress:

Expresso coverage;
Observador coverage;

[Mike88]

The PS congress has ended:


António Costa giving his speech.

The Socialists congress, in Batalha city, has ended. António Costa finalized the congress with a speech in which he laid out what will the PS do until the 2019 general elections. Costa talked about an increase in the NMW, legislation to increase wages for young workers plus trying to woo back young emigrants to come back to Portugal. He also talked about Education and Housing. The media, and pundits, are portraying the congress as "dull", but very well organized. There was little excitement for the vast majority of speeches, as, for example, there was much more excitement for the Champions League final than the speeches that were happening at the time of the game.   


Pedro Nuno Santos delivering his speech.

Nonetheless, the congress was also weird in one other thing. In a time when Costa dominates the party, there was a strong discussion of who will succeed him. In that discussion, Pedro Nuno Santos won by a landslide. In his speech, Pedro Nuno Santos fired up the congress with a very leftwing speech quoting Karl Marx, that the PS should fight against liberalism and that the party should look more and more to the left, BE and PCP, and not to the center-right, PSD and CDS. Fernando Medina, was the clear loser in this congress.

Costa speech: (starts around minute 3:20:00)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2DQl_VtuDY

[Josecardoso17]

i think if the eutanásia bill fails,the BE will just wait until the next election where the left is expected to have a better majority.

Looks like ,in my oppinion that the next leadership contest in PS its gonna be : Medina(center-left) vs Pedro Santos(a good performance but never forget the things he said about not paying debt) vs Ana Catarina Mendes(she is the second in command xD)

[Mike88]

i think if the eutanásia bill fails,the BE will just wait until the next election where the left is expected to have a better majority.

Looks like ,in my oppinion that the next leadership contest in PS its gonna be : Medina(center-left) vs Pedro Santos(a good performance but never forget the things he said about not paying debt) vs Ana Catarina Mendes(she is the second in command xD)

I think the Euthanasia bill will pass, by a hair, but it will pass, if the vote even happens. The pressure many undecided PSD MPs are having will likely make them abstain than vote in favour or against. But, like i said in a post above, Marcelo could veto it, and it could also go the Constitutional Court and get stucked there. So, a lot will still happen.

I think Medina will be out of the picture by 2023, if the PS leadership elections happen then, i honestly think that. He achieved a weak result with no opposition in 2017, so, in 2021, with a likely united PSD/CDS alliance, he could, or will, be toasted. I think the real race will be, like you also said, Ana Catarina Mendes vs Pedro Nuno Santos. The economy will be crucial by that time. If the economic cycle is negative, nothing can beat a PSD led by Luís Montenegro or Carlos Moedas. If the economic cycle is still good, it would be too close to call, but Pedro Nuno Santos would probably win the leadership narrowly, not sure about a general election.

[Mike88]

Croca parish by-election: Independent (supported by PSD/CDS) gain from PS:

The independent "Movement for Croca (MPC)", supported by PSD/CDS, has gained Croca parish from the PS. Of the 1,566 registered voters, 1,046 cast a ballot. Of those who voted, the MPC got 636 votes, PS got 364, CDU just 24 votes and 22 votes were Invalid. The share of vote was the following:

60.8% MPC (+33.2), 6 seats (+4)
34.8% PS (-2.3), 3 (-1)
  2.3% CDU (-0.6)
  2.1% Blank/Invalid (-0.7)

66.8% Turnout (-4.1)

[Josecardoso17]

do you think 2021 will be like 2001? xD

[Mike88]

do you think 2021 will be like 2001? xD

It's a possibility, no doubt. The 2017 local elections were a bit out of the box because in midterm local elections, the incumbent party normally is punished and the opposition makes significant gains. The opposite happened last year. 2021 will be another time, in my view. The economy will probably be bad, i think the current economic momentum will not last because of the structural problems our country has, not to mention a possible worldwide recession, plus the PSD will probably have a new leader, and Costa could be in the same position Cavaco Silva was in 1993, and Guterres was in 2001, meaning a lame duck.

Adding to this, in the 2021 local elections, a big number of PS incumbents, in swing cities, will be term limited, and that's an opportunity for the PSD. In fact, the PSD is already preparing the 2021 elections.

But, we still have 3 elections next year, let's see how those elections play out. Will Costa have a majority or not? Will Rio surprise or be a disappointment? How will the 3 other parties, BE, CDS and CDU, poll? And will Madeira swing to the PS or continue to be a PSD bastion?