Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Marine Le Pen's attendance, that has been revoked, to the Web Summit is creating a big controversy in Portugal:


Marine Le Pen.

It was the big story, politically, in Portugal this week. Earlier this week, newspapers reported the Marine Le Pen, leader of the French National Front, would be one of the main speakers in this year Web Summit in Lisbon. After this was reported, many MPs on the left, from the PS and BE, plus social media, were outraged by her invitation and demanded that the Le Pen should be forbidden to come to the Web Summit in Portugal. Her name was eventually withdrawn from the main speakers list. But, it seems that her name wasn't withdrawn.

After it was reported her name was still on the list, the controversy escalated. Anti-Racism associations and leftwing parties put pressure over the government to forbid her to come to the Summit. On the center-right, the PSD didn't vetoed Le Pen's presence, but said that if the PS/BE are so against Le Pen, then the government should stop funding the Web Summit in Lisbon. The government refused to be part in this controversy and didn't asked for Le Pen's name to be dropped, putting pressure on Paddy Cosgrave to make a stand. He, today, announced that Le Pen was then not invited to the Summit, after the government cornered him. Nonetheless, this controversy is still hot, in the left parties, PS and BE, and with the media which has mix reactions.

[Mike88]

Santana Lopes's new party will be called "Alliance": (Aliança in Portuguese)


Logo of Santana's new party.

Santana Lopes has chosen a name for his new party. The party will be called "Alliance", its main colour will be blue, and according to him, and reported by Expresso newspaper, the party will be a personalistic, supportive and liberal party. On values it will a conservative party and it will be a pró-European party, but with criticisms, and liberal on the NHS and Social Security (SS). He also proposes lowering taxes and a balance budget. The main policies, and goals, of Santana's new party are almost a copy paste of the PSD, although on the NHS and SS, Santana seems to be more to the right than the PSD. In the next few weeks, Santana will start to collect signatures to legalize his party, as it is needed 7,500 legal signatures to register a party in Portugal.

The Alliance, or Santana Lopes himself, defends also changes in the Portuguese political system. He proposes the creation of a Senate, making the Assembly of the Republic a bicameral assembly, and the introduction of FPTP to elect MPs balanced with a national constituency to create proportionality. Before the creation of his new party, Santana made contacts with other smaller parties, like the Liberal Initiative or Democracy XXI (which is still in formation also), but both refused to merge with him.

With Santana's new party, the number of political parties in Portugal will increase to 23, from the current 22 (already counting Democracy XXI).

[VPH]

Santana Lopes's new party will be called "Alliance": (Aliança in Portuguese)


Logo of Santana's new party.

Santana Lopes has chosen a name for his new party. The party will be called "Alliance", its main colour will be blue, and according to him, and reported by Expresso newspaper, the party will be a personalistic, supportive and liberal party. On values it will a conservative party and it will be a pró-European party, but with criticisms, and liberal on the NHS and Social Security (SS). He also proposes lowering taxes and a balance budget. The main policies, and goals, of Santana's new party are almost a copy paste of the PSD, although on the NHS and SS, Santana seems to be more to the right than the PSD. In the next few weeks, Santana will start to collect signatures to legalize his party, as it is needed 7,500 legal signatures to register a party in Portugal.

The Alliance, or Santana Lopes himself, defends also changes in the Portuguese political system. He proposes the creation of a Senate, making the Assembly of the Republic a bicameral assembly, and the introduction of FPTP to elect MPs balanced with a national constituency to create proportionality. Before the creation of his new party, Santana made contacts with other smaller parties, like the Liberal Initiative or Democracy XXI (which is still in formation also), but both refused to merge with him.

With Santana's new party, the number of political parties in Portugal will increase to 23, from the current 22 (already counting Democracy XXI).

Do you think realistically this will gain any traction? It seems a little redundant and too similar to CDS-PP and PSD to have its niche. Maybe the reformism element of it lets the party stand out, but I struggle to see this doing well.

[Mike88]

Do you think realistically this will gain any traction? It seems a little redundant and too similar to CDS-PP and PSD to have its niche. Maybe the reformism element of it lets the party stand out, but I struggle to see this doing well.

At first, the party could have a similar fate like all the parties that wanted, in the past, to "shake up the system" had, meaning, zero success. The reaction from the PSD about his departure was very negative and there isn't a big wave of PSD members willing to support Santana. Nonetheless, the PSD is currently very, very divided towards Rui Rio and Santana's party could be a way for Rio's opposition, within the PSD, to weaken and attack him. Santana's idea is to recreate in Portugal what Macron did in France and Rivera/Iglesias did in Spain, but the problem is that Santana Lopes is an old figure in Portugal, ridiculed by some and heavily rejected by the electorate, as one poll says that 80% would never support him. So, my view, like you VPH, is that Santana may crash in a wall. But we have to wait for new polling to see how much traction he's having.

Keep in mind also that during 2014 and early 2015, Livre and PDR, also new parties at the time, were polling around 3% and 5% respectively, and ended with 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively, in the 2015 elections. The element of novelty will fade as time passes, and that means that unless Santana offers something new and different from the PSD and CDS, he could poll very badly.

[VPH]

Do you think realistically this will gain any traction? It seems a little redundant and too similar to CDS-PP and PSD to have its niche. Maybe the reformism element of it lets the party stand out, but I struggle to see this doing well.

At first, the party could have a similar fate like all the parties that wanted, in the past, to "shake up the system" had, meaning, zero success. The reaction from the PSD about his departure was very negative and there isn't a big wave of PSD members willing to support Santana. Nonetheless, the PSD is currently very, very divided towards Rui Rio and Santana's party could be a way for Rio's opposition, within the PSD, to weaken and attack him. Santana's idea is to recreate in Portugal what Macron did in France and Rivera/Iglesias did in Spain, but the problem is that Santana Lopes is an old figure in Portugal, ridiculed by some and heavily rejected by the electorate, as one poll says that 80% would never support him. So, my view, like you VPH, is that Santana may crash in a wall. But we have to wait for new polling to see how much traction he's having.

Keep in mind also that during 2014 and early 2015, Livre and PDR, also new parties at the time, were polling around 3% and 5% respectively, and ended with 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively, in the 2015 elections. The element of novelty will fade as time passes, and that means that unless Santana offers something new and different from the PSD and CDS, he could poll very badly.

Maybe they do alright in European Parliament elections and then not in any normal elections, kinda like MPT.

[Mike88]

Do you think realistically this will gain any traction? It seems a little redundant and too similar to CDS-PP and PSD to have its niche. Maybe the reformism element of it lets the party stand out, but I struggle to see this doing well.

At first, the party could have a similar fate like all the parties that wanted, in the past, to "shake up the system" had, meaning, zero success. The reaction from the PSD about his departure was very negative and there isn't a big wave of PSD members willing to support Santana. Nonetheless, the PSD is currently very, very divided towards Rui Rio and Santana's party could be a way for Rio's opposition, within the PSD, to weaken and attack him. Santana's idea is to recreate in Portugal what Macron did in France and Rivera/Iglesias did in Spain, but the problem is that Santana Lopes is an old figure in Portugal, ridiculed by some and heavily rejected by the electorate, as one poll says that 80% would never support him. So, my view, like you VPH, is that Santana may crash in a wall. But we have to wait for new polling to see how much traction he's having.

Keep in mind also that during 2014 and early 2015, Livre and PDR, also new parties at the time, were polling around 3% and 5% respectively, and ended with 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively, in the 2015 elections. The element of novelty will fade as time passes, and that means that unless Santana offers something new and different from the PSD and CDS, he could poll very badly.

Maybe they do alright in European Parliament elections and then not in any normal elections, kinda like MPT.

The EP elections will be, without any doubt, a crucial test for Santana. If he fails to be elected, Portugal has just 21 seats and with that you can only elect MEPs with more than 4%, he will be toasted and people would just forget him, and for the general elections he could even beg for a coalition with the PSD, but, who knows, it's Santana Lopes we're talking about.

On a funny side, the name is being a bit mocked on social media. One joke i saw is that the name "Alliance" is an homage to Santana's failed 3 marriages (Alliance in Portuguese means "Aliança" which also means wedding ring) and the other is that Santana could lose the leadership election in his own party.

[Mike88]

Liberal Initiative accuses Santana Lopes of stealing their ideas:

The Liberal Initiative (IL), one of the parties Santana considered merging with but that refused to have anything to do with Santana, is accusing Santana Lopes of stealing their election manifesto and ideas. The leader of IL, Miguel Ferreira da Silva, accused Santana of doing all of this just out of revenge against the PSD and that his goal is to personally defeat Rui Rio. He adds that Santana isn't proposing anything new that the IL hasn't proposed yet.

Also, Santana Lopes says he will not be a candidate for the 2019 EP elections.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on the legalization of recreational marijuana:

Q: Do you favor or oppose the legalization of marijuana for recreational purposes?

53.4% Oppose
40.2% In favor
  6.4% Undecided

Distribution by party %:

PSD: 70.3%/26.0%
PS: 53.4%/42.0%
BE: 53.0%
CDS: 62.8%/27.0%
CDU: 47.9%

Poll conducted between 13 and 16 July 2018. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

The political scene, today, was dominated by tweets:

First, it was Mário Centeno's video about the end of the 3rd bailout in Greece.
https://twitter.com/EUCouncil/status/1031429591078977538
The tweet received harsh criticisms, even from the PS. João Galamba, PS MP and former spokesperson for the PS, called Centeno's video as "pitiful", while BE says that the video is ridiculous and insulting for the Greek people. The PSD also mocked Centeno.

The other tweet came from the PSD. In the last few days, reports, from Público newspaper, say that Rio's team is divided about Health policy, in which is discussed if private hospitals should have a bigger importance in the NHS, and even a few members of Rio's team threatened to resign if the policy wasn't changed. The PSD, it seems, is fed up with the reporting and tweeted this, this afternoon:
https://twitter.com/ppdpsd/status/1031574910848708608

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The tweet is raising eyebrows for its direct criticism to the reporter for Publico newspaper. Rui Rio always had a very bad relation with the press. During his term as mayor of Porto, he usually criticized the media, particularly Público and Jornal de Notícias, for their reports and stories about him. During his victory speech in 2005 local elections, when he was reelected with a majority, he said that the biggest loser wasn't the PS, but the media because it spent 4 years making up lies and intrigue towards him.

[Mike88]

Political update:

There are few political news this month, after all, it's August and politicians are, the vast majority, on vacations but, some political stories are being reported.

First, the government is planning to change the 2013 parish reform done by the PSD/CDS government. In that reform, more than 1,000 parishes were extint and merged with other parishes. The government now wants to change the reform, a little. Insted of scraping the whole reform, the PS minority government wants to create an option where municipalities decide if they want to maintain the reform or scrap it all together.


Protest against the merger of parishes in 2012.

Parties have already reacted to the government's plan: PS, BE and CDU are on board, with BE wanting local referendums; PSD, on the other hand, is totally against. The Social Democrats brand the government's plan as "nonsense and stupid" and that the government is only doing this for electoral reasons. The plan will be presented to Parliament after September, when the last legislative session, before the 2019 elections, starts.

Second, a weird story. The government is also planning a new weapons law that would restrain the use of fire arms in Portugal. The law will also be presented to Parliament in September, but pró-arms lobbies are pressuring MPs to vote against the new law. Members of Parliament are receiving emails from pró-arms lobbies from Spain and they are also receiving emails in English. The emails demand the MPs vote against the government's bill as the bill makes a "direct attack on the freedoms of honorable Portuguese citizens". Spanish involvement is very strong and there are, on social media, criticisms to police forces and PS/PSD politicians for their support for the new bill. Wrongly they hailed Nuno Melo, CDS MEP, as a hero for arms defenders but he also supports, apparently, the new bill.


New fire arms legislation is creating some controversy.

The new arms bill, proposed by the government, will limit even more the number of weapons owned by person and will end the figure of weapon holder. The new law limits to 25 the number of weapons that each person or hunter may have, on the other hand, it will be possible to rent weapons for hunting in Portugal. The government says that the new bill will solve many problems, adding "a lot of people have guns, but they do not have the training to have them. Nor reason. There has to be more control."

And finally, a political party that is internal crisis because of... António Costa, and it's not the PS. The Liberal Initiative (IL) is in turmoil after their leader resigned after it was discovered that their facebook page was in the past a page supporting António Costa. The leader of the party wanted the page deleted, but the party refused that, so he resigned. The page was created in 2014 by his deputy, back then a Costa supporter. And jut like that, another new party in Portugal falls into total irrelevance.

[Mike88]

Controversy surrounding a special PS train is making headlines:

The media had a field day with the report that the PS rented trains to sent, and pick up, Socialists members for the Socialists summer rally in Caminha, Viana do Castelo, this weekend. The public company Trains of Portugal (CP) is willing to delay regular passenger trains in order for the special PS train can pass without any problems. The problem is that CP has refused this kind of renting to other organizations, like S. L. Benfica, and this happens in a time when train services in Portugal are in near collapse. Trains are old and without proper maintenance which leads to several delays and cancellation of many lines almost every day. Many strikes are also hitting hard the services with one already schedule to next week.


Trains stationed in Lisbon.

The PS is downplaying the controversy saying that this is a normal service done by CP and that any customer can rent trains, which isn't entirely true. As for CP, the company says that special trains always existed and that no train is expected to be delayed. The opposition is, of course, hitting hard on the government. The PSD says that the attitude from the PS is "unacceptable", while CDS asks for an urgent debate on Parliament because of the state of railways and trains in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Adding to the "special PS train" controversy, another blow for the government: Spain will not rent trains to Portugal.

The government was hoping that the chaos in railway services would be mitigated if Portugal rented some trains from Spain, but according to Público newspaper, Spain will not rent any train to Portugal because they don't have any to give. Trains of Portugal company (Comboios de Portugal CP) is already renting 20 trains that cost more than 7 million euros per year, plus many trains that run on diesel are in near colapse and there is a lack of workers to maintain trains functional.

[Josecardoso17]

Political update:

There are few political news this month, after all, it's August and politicians are, the vast majority, on vacations but, some political stories are being reported.

First, the government is planning to change the 2013 parish reform done by the PSD/CDS government. In that reform, more than 1,000 parishes were extint and merged with other parishes. The government now wants to change the reform, a little. Insted of scraping the whole reform, the PS minority government wants to create an option where municipalities decide if they want to maintain the reform or scrap it all together.


Protest against the merger of parishes in 2012.

Parties have already reacted to the government's plan: PS, BE and CDU are on board, with BE wanting local referendums; PSD, on the other hand, is totally against. The Social Democrats brand the government's plan as "nonsense and stupid" and that the government is only doing this for electoral reasons. The plan will be presented to Parliament after September, when the last legislative session, before the 2019 elections, starts.

Second, a weird story. The government is also planning a new weapons law that would restrain the use of fire arms in Portugal. The law will also be presented to Parliament in September, but pró-arms lobbies are pressuring MPs to vote against the new law. Members of Parliament are receiving emails from pró-arms lobbies from Spain and they are also receiving emails in English. The emails demand the MPs vote against the government's bill as the bill makes a "direct attack on the freedoms of honorable Portuguese citizens". Spanish involvement is very strong and there are, on social media, criticisms to police forces and PS/PSD politicians for their support for the new bill. Wrongly they hailed Nuno Melo, CDS MEP, as a hero for arms defenders but he also supports, apparently, the new bill.


New fire arms legislation is creating some controversy.

The new arms bill, proposed by the government, will limit even more the number of weapons owned by person and will end the figure of weapon holder. The new law limits to 25 the number of weapons that each person or hunter may have, on the other hand, it will be possible to rent weapons for hunting in Portugal. The government says that the new bill will solve many problems, adding "a lot of people have guns, but they do not have the training to have them. Nor reason. There has to be more control."

And finally, a political party that is internal crisis because of... António Costa, and it's not the PS. The Liberal Initiative (IL) is in turmoil after their leader resigned after it was discovered that their facebook page was in the past a page supporting António Costa. The leader of the party wanted the page deleted, but the party refused that, so he resigned. The page was created in 2014 by his deputy, back then a Costa supporter. And jut like that, another new party in Portugal falls into total irrelevance.

the thing is that the VP from the Liberal Initiative was seen as the real president in social and internet media ,and made his entire internet activity making fun of the socialist party and criticizing the state of the portuguese socialist way of governing and etc.....His name is alexandre krauss,if you want to check on facebook or twitter .So for a guy so against the PS or the PSD ,and always criticizing the big government interference ,he had like a previous crush on that xD

[Mike88]

And finally, a political party that is internal crisis because of... António Costa, and it's not the PS. The Liberal Initiative (IL) is in turmoil after their leader resigned after it was discovered that their facebook page was in the past a page supporting António Costa. The leader of the party wanted the page deleted, but the party refused that, so he resigned. The page was created in 2014 by his deputy, back then a Costa supporter. And jut like that, another new party in Portugal falls into total irrelevance.

the thing is that the VP from the Liberal Initiative was seen as the real president in social and internet media ,and made his entire internet activity making fun of the socialist party and criticizing the state of the portuguese socialist way of governing and etc.....His name is alexandre krauss,if you want to check on facebook or twitter .So for a guy so against the PS or the PSD ,and always criticizing the big government interference ,he had like a previous crush on that xD

Didn't knew him or ever heard about him. Well, he's another Portuguese politician who saw "the light", if you know what i mean. His facebook post explaining his support for Costa in the past is hilarious and, in my view, full of BS, also, i especially liked the part when he says "as each day passes, the Liberal Initiative (IL) is getting bigger"... yeah, right, sure.

[Mike88]

Well, the 4th, and last, session of the 13th Parliament will convene in the next few weeks and parties are, or will, start to be more active in the campaign trail. The 2019 general elections will be held in September/October 2019, with the most likely date being October 6, 2019. The PS held a summer rally, last weekend, in Caminha, Viana do Castelo, and Costa, without saying it, asked voters to give the PS a clear mandate, meaning a majority.

The PSD continues in its usual state of civil war: half of the party doesn't like Rio and they aren't ashamed of saying it. Santana Lopes departure from the party made thing even more tense and everyone is waiting to see how the PSD will perform in the next few months. The PSD has 0% chances of winning next year. They lost the expectation game created by them when Costa became PM. Ahead in the polls back then, the PSD proclaimed that Costa would fail and leave Portugal in hell. Well, the opposite happened and the party was hammered by voters. The 2017 local results proves it. Overall, the main question right now is: Will the PS gain a majority or not, and will they ask voters, directly, for it?

The smaller parties, BE, CDU, CDS, Alliance and PAN will try to gain or, at least, hold on to their ground. BE and CDU will, probably, make a though campaign warning voters of the danger of a PS majority and hail every good economic data as their own also, as they fear that many left voters could be more willing to vote for a stable majority PS government rather than in a BE/CDU support to a PS minority. CDS will try to gain from the PSD mess, as will Santana Lopes Alliance, although it's still unclear what his party will be, but, for now, it's almost consensual that it will hurt the PSD. PAN, the surprise of 2015, is down in the polls lately and they will have to fight hard to hold on to their seat.

With all of that, here's my prediction of the state of the parties one year from the actual vote in 2019:

Vote projection (MoE of +/-1%):
(116 needed for a majority)

39.8% PS, 112/116 seats
27.0% PSD, 73/77
  7.3% CDU, 14/16
  7.2% CDS, 10/12
  7.0% BE, 11/13
  2.8% Alliance, 1/3
  1.3% PAN, 1
  0.7% PCTP
  0.6% PDR
  0.5% Livre
  0.5% PNR
  2.2% Other parties (bellow 0.5%)
  3.1% Blank/Invalid ballots

Most voted by district:

Also, PS wins Azores; PSD wins Madeira.

Feel free to post predictions, analysis and hints of what could happen during the following months.

[windjammer]

I wouldn't be surprised about a PS-BE coalition

[Mike88]

I wouldn't be surprised about a PS-BE coalition

That's the most likely outcome in the event of a PS minority, although Costa, in the event of a PS/BE coalition, would have to make a very difficult decision: Should BE have seats in the cabinet? Half of the PS would freak out about this, plus it could cost Centeno's job in the Eurogroup, as the BE could demand that Centeno shouldn't be the Finance Minister. Would Costa take that risk? I doubt it.

But Costa is extremely lucky. The fact his opposition is divided and in almost civil war, makes his chances of getting a majority grew by the day. A few months ago i wouldn't believe that a PS majority was possible, but, currently it's almost a 50/50 chance.

[windjammer]

I wouldn't be surprised about a PS-BE coalition

That's the most likely outcome in the event of a PS minority, although Costa, in the event of a PS/BE coalition, would have to make a very difficult decision: Should BE have seats in the cabinet? Half of the PS would freak out about this, plus it could cost Centeno's job in the Eurogroup, as the BE could demand that Centeno shouldn't be the Finance Minister. Would Costa take that risk? I doubt it.

But Costa is extremely lucky. The fact his opposition is divided and in almost civil war, makes his chances of getting a majority grew by the day. A few months ago i wouldn't believe that a PS majority was possible, but, currently it's almost a 50/50 chance.

I'm not sure him getting an absolute majority is the best scenario.

Based on some empirical evidences in Europe, a coalition of leftwing parties from the far left to the center left with the center left not having the absolute majority tends to be more popular than a government where the center left party has the majority.

When the center left party rules alone, there is a quite big risk that they lose a lot of support among the leftwing base as often center left party leaders are a little out of touch with the leftwing voters.

[EPG]

Larger coalitions are usually more popular than smaller coalitions, because they are larger.

[Josecardoso17]

Well, the 4th, and last, session of the 13th Parliament will convene in the next few weeks and parties are, or will, start to be more active in the campaign trail. The 2019 general elections will be held in September/October 2019, with the most likely date being October 6, 2019. The PS held a summer rally, last weekend, in Caminha, Viana do Castelo, and Costa, without saying it, asked voters to give the PS a clear mandate, meaning a majority.

The PSD continues in its usual state of civil war: half of the party doesn't like Rio and they aren't ashamed of saying it. Santana Lopes departure from the party made thing even more tense and everyone is waiting to see how the PSD will perform in the next few months. The PSD has 0% chances of winning next year. They lost the expectation game created by them when Costa became PM. Ahead in the polls back then, the PSD proclaimed that Costa would fail and leave Portugal in hell. Well, the opposite happened and the party was hammered by voters. The 2017 local results proves it. Overall, the main question right now is: Will the PS gain a majority or not, and will they ask voters, directly, for it?

The smaller parties, BE, CDU, CDS, Alliance and PAN will try to gain or, at least, hold on to their ground. BE and CDU will, probably, make a though campaign warning voters of the danger of a PS majority and hail every good economic data as their own also, as they fear that many left voters could be more willing to vote for a stable majority PS government rather than in a BE/CDU support to a PS minority. CDS will try to gain from the PSD mess, as will Santana Lopes Alliance, although it's still unclear what his party will be, but, for now, it's almost consensual that it will hurt the PSD. PAN, the surprise of 2015, is down in the polls lately and they will have to fight hard to hold on to their seat.

With all of that, here's my prediction of the state of the parties one year from the actual vote in 2019:

Vote projection (MoE of +/-1%):
(116 needed for a majority)

39.8% PS, 112/116 seats
27.0% PSD, 73/77
  7.3% CDU, 14/16
  7.2% CDS, 10/12
  7.0% BE, 11/13
  2.8% Alliance, 1/3
  1.3% PAN, 1
  0.7% PCTP
  0.6% PDR
  0.5% Livre
  0.5% PNR
  2.2% Other parties (bellow 0.5%)
  3.1% Blank/Invalid ballots

Most voted by district:

Also, PS wins Azores; PSD wins Madeira.

Feel free to post predictions, analysis and hints of what could happen during the following months.

I agree with the majority of the prediction but i think that BE is coming in third ,and CDS is still coming in last .BE usually does far better or far worse than polls actually predict .CDS will  face  backlash from Assunção Cristas popularity with the electorate ,which i consider as being low.
BE standing in polls is because the left electorate of the party is relatively young and doesn´t use the phone or take answer poll from there.

A curiosity is that i see the Porto district being a toss up ,that because Rui Rio still as some political power in the region .

[Josecardoso17]

i also believe that there is a 50% chance of the PS at this moment gaining a majority.But there is a 25% chance that the PS comes close to a majority ,so they will try to repeat the left wing support to the government ,if not ,Costa will claim that is party won without a doubt,and demand support from the PSD or the rest of the parties,ending in the worst case scenario for PS with a minority government without support .

The last 25% is that the year of 2019 ,is full of scandals or fires affect the country yet again or a economic downturn ,something that leaves the Socialists in a bad position .In that case,Costa will campaign that is only a stepback and will point the sucesses of past years.That could lead to a small win and a very divided parliament ,and in that case,well,you can imagine a thousand outcomes .....

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Has the PAN man done anything interesting in office?

What is Costa's record like in environmental and energy issues?

[Mike88]

i also believe that there is a 50% chance of the PS at this moment gaining a majority.But there is a 25% chance that the PS comes close to a majority ,so they will try to repeat the left wing support to the government ,if not ,Costa will claim that is party won without a doubt,and demand support from the PSD or the rest of the parties,ending in the worst case scenario for PS with a minority government without support .

The last 25% is that the year of 2019 ,is full of scandals or fires affect the country yet again or a economic downturn ,something that leaves the Socialists in a bad position .In that case,Costa will campaign that is only a stepback and will point the sucesses of past years.That could lead to a small win and a very divided parliament ,and in that case,well,you can imagine a thousand outcomes .....

I don't think Costa has much to worry, honestly. Even if there are some scandals, more signs of an economic downturn, the first signs have already arrived, or wildfires, he would still easily win the elections. Like i said in a post above, he won the expectation game and that's enough for voters, just like Passos Coelho did in 2014/2015 and clearly won the 2015 elections. Plus, voters feel more money in their pockets and feel somewhat secure. The problems come after 2019. If he wins a majority, he will have CDU and BE in full opposition mode and he never had this. So, he would have a full blown real opposition from his former allies, hitting him with everything they got. If he wins without a majority, then he would have to decide: do i form a real coalition with BE or CDU? Repeat the 2015 agreement? or do i negotiate with both sides, left or right? The first would create huge tensions in the PS, the second could continue to work if there isn't an economic downturn, because if there's one... well, Costa is toasted, and the third, that's what Guterres and Sócrates did in their final terms and it ended badly. So, Costa will have a happy 2019, but i'm not that confident for the rest of his term.

I agree with the majority of the prediction but i think that BE is coming in third ,and CDS is still coming in last .BE usually does far better or far worse than polls actually predict .CDS will  face  backlash from Assunção Cristas popularity with the electorate ,which i consider as being low.
BE standing in polls is because the left electorate of the party is relatively young and doesn´t use the phone or take answer poll from there.

A curiosity is that i see the Porto district being a toss up ,that because Rui Rio still as some political power in the region .

I think the Robles scandal will end the "virginity" of the BE. They will not be seen as a clean party, on the contrary. So, many of their voters, particularly young voters on urban centers, could be put off by the party and vote either on the PS or don't even bother to show up to vote. CDS, in my opinion, will gain a few with the PSD mess and could gain some votes like it did in 2009. I also think Porto will vote decisively in the PS. Yes, Rio could have some appeal but the map, in the district, will probably look all pink with that orange spot in the top of the district, Póvoa de Varzim, which is my hometown.

Has the PAN man done anything interesting in office?

What is Costa's record like in environmental and energy issues?

PAN has put forward some policies towards animals rights: the end of Animal slaughter sites, taxes deductions for pet owners and a strong opposition towards bullfighting. Their latest proposal is to ban wagons in public streets.

Costa doesn't have a very strong record in terms of environmental issues. The government has recently approved an offshore oil drilling in the west coast of the Algarve, which is highly unpopular in the region. In terms of energy issues, there are few policies but the main investements are in solar power stations.

[Mike88]

Update on local by-elections:

Only two parties, all from the center-right, have registered for the Marmeleiro, Guarda, local by-election on October 7. There are 478 registered voters:

CDS - People's Party
PSD - Social Democratic Party

Also, local by-elections will be held in Darque, Viana do Castelo, and Terena (S. Pedro), Alandroal, this Sunday, September 2. A total of 7,967 voters will be able to cast their ballots in these two parishes.

[Mike88]

Polls have closed in Darque and Terena local by-elections. It's expected that the PS in Darque and the Independents in Terena will hold on to power, while the main doubt is if they will win a majority in both parishes.