Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Darque local by-election - CDU gain from PS:

44.5% CDU (+16.4), 6 seats (+2)
35.5% PS (-2.1), 5 (n.c.)
  9.6% PSD (-12.7), 1 (-2)
  8.1% CDS (+1.7), 1 (n.c.)
  2.3% Blank/Invalid (-3.2)

28.0% Turnout (-18.1)

A low turnout by-election, but with a significant swing from PSD to CDU. Maybe it was tactical voting from PSD voters to CDU in order to block a PS victory.

[Mike88]

Terena (S. Pedro) by-election - Independent hold:

49.6% Indy (+9.6), 4 seats (+1)
32.6% PS (+6.9), 2 (n.c.)
15.8% CDU (-7.3), 1 (-1)
  2.0% Blank/Invalid (-1.4)

65.2% Turnout (-13.4)

[Mike88]

After Sunday's local by-elections, the PS lost its second parish this year. During this year, these were the overall results of the 4 local by-elections:

Vacalar, Armamar - PSD hold
Croca, Penafiel - Independent gain from PS
Darque, Viana do Castelo - CDU gain from PS
Terena (S. Pedro), Alandroal - Independent hold

Therefore, since the 2017 elections, and after these 4 local by-elections, the current standings by party, in terms of control of parishes, is the following: (compared with the 2017 elections)

1,300 PS (-2)
1,165 PSD (n.c.)
   403 Independent (+1)
   140 CDU (+1)
     60 CDS (n.c.)
       7 JPP (n.c.)
       5 Livre (n.c.)
       3 NC (n.c.)
       0 BE (n.c.)

The next by-election will be held in Marmeleiro, Guarda, on October 7. The race will be between the PSD and CDS.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from September:

Vote share %:

39.9% PS (+0.9)
24.1% PSD (-3.1)
  9.2% CDS (+1.8 )
  7.8% BE (-1.7)
  7.1% CDU (+0.1)
10.0% Others/Invalid (+2.4)
  1.9% Undecided (-0.4)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

11.9 António Costa (-0.3)
  9.9 Catarina Martins (-0.4)
  9.8 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.6)
  9.2 Rui Rio (-1.4)
  8.1 Assunção Cristas (+0.1)

Preferred PM:

57.6% António Costa (+0.6)
28.0% Rui Rio (-2.1)

Poll conducted between 1 and 2 September 2018. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Political news update:

Politicians are back in full after the summer recess, and the controversies also. First, the controversy surrounding funds for the Pedrogão Grande wildfire disaster, plus the shady reconstruction permants given to people who didn't have a first home in the region. It was reported that EU funds, to help victims of the wildfires, are being held up by the government to reinforce public entities to fight wildfires and not the actual victims. This is creating a big controversy and the government had to defend itself. The opposition, by the voice of the PSD leader, Rui Rio, calls the government's actions as "shamefull and immoral".


A second home reconstructed that violates the rules.

Then there's the controversy surrounding reconstructed houses in Pedrógão Grande. TVI news is reporting that many houses in Pedrógão Grande, that were reconstructed, were second homes and that they should had been reconstructed last, according to the rules, as many first homes are still in ruins. The mayor of Pedrógão, Valdemar Alves (PS), knew, allegedly, all the schemes and did nothing. The mayor was outraged by TVI's report and sued them, but it seems that the content of the report is true. The population of Pedrógão is infuriated by the situation and there's already a petition to remove the mayor and to call a by-election.


More teachers strikes and protests are expected.

On more political news, negotiations between teachers unions and the government once again failed. The government refused to count all 9 years of repayments and job progressions for teachers and unions will go, again, on strike. A teacher strike was called for the first week of October and it will last 4 days.

The nomination of a new attorney-general (AG) is heating up the political scene. The current attorney-general, Joana Marques Vidal, will end her term in the next few weeks and a successor, or her reappointment, has to be decided. This is creating a huge debate on whether she should go on or should someone else take the job. Since AG Cunha Rodrigues long term (1984-2000), the norm is that AGs should serve just one term, but this time the decision is becoming politicized.


Current AG Joana Marques Vidal.

The PS wants to name a new AG, while some members of the PSD are 100% in favour of a second term for Ms Vidal and say that if Costa nominates someone new it would be an "incomprehensible decision". The PSD leader, Rui Rio, is silent about all of this, but says that any politicization of the AG is bad for the country.

And then there's the current situation of the PSD. After 31 days on holiday, where Rio didn't said a word or appeared publically, Rui Rio is back, and according to pundits, he came back more aggressive against everybody: the government and his internal opposition. In an interview today, Rio said bluntly to his critics that if they want to continue to criticize his leadership in public and give the elections to the PS, then they should leave the PSD.


Rui Rio during his speech last Sunday.

Last Sunday, Rio also gave a similar attack to his opposition within the PSD, saying that they only see "their little seats", meaning power, disappearing. According to the reaction of his audience, around 500 PSD members, they liked Rio's attacks to his critics. Rui Rio will give another speech this Sunday to mark the end of the PSD summer university.  

[Mike88]

New real estate tax, proposed by BE, creates controversy:


Urban landscape of upper Lisbon.

A new real estate tax, proposed by BE, is creating a considerable controversy. It started this weekend, when the BE announced they believe that a new real estate tax to punish real estate speculation would be approved by the PS and the government. The problem is that this sounds like hypocrisy, according to pundits, coming, of all parties, from the BE. Last July, the party suffered a huge blow when it was discovered that their councillor for Lisbon, Ricardo Robles, bought a house by around 400,000 euros and sold it by 5.7 million euros. The councillor had to resign.

Nonetheless, the BE expected the PS to support the tax, but the Socialist said, basically, hell no. Costa said that the tax is badly done and that there's already a similar tax. PCP accused BE of opportunism, while CDS said the tax was stupid and labeled the "Robles tax". The most curious reaction was from the PSD. Rui Rio, PSD leader, when asked about the tax, said the idea, although he didn't said he supports the BE plan, isn't that stupid because, in his own words, "the market has to do its job, but there are times when one can try to adjust in order to avoid the very heavy social costs that free supply and demand can produce".

[warandwar]

What would the proposed tax do, Mike?

[Mike88]

What would the proposed tax do, Mike?

The idea of the tax, it seems, is to punish investors who buy for little and sell for 3, 4, 5 times higher than the original value. But, the problem, is that, currently, individuals who sell houses already pay a 50% tax on their profit if the house isn't for their own use, meaning the state already has 50% of what you earn in a sale. So, the tax idea fails to meet the point.

So, you can imagine how Rui Rio's reaction to the tax is being felt in the PSD ranks...

[VPH]

3 of the 6 European United Left-Nordic Green Left MEPs who voted against punishing #Hungary are Portuguese. All three (João FERREIRA,  João PIMENTA LOPES, and Miguel VIEGAS) are members of the Portuguese Communist Party and rank quite low on loyalty to their political group. (679, 680, 685) Wonder why they voted this way.

[Mike88]

3 of the 6 European United Left-Nordic Green Left MEPs who voted against punishing #Hungary are Portuguese. All three (João FERREIRA,  João PIMENTA LOPES, and Miguel VIEGAS) are members of the Portuguese Communist Party and rank quite low on loyalty to their political group. (679, 680, 685) Wonder why they voted this way.

Well, according to a statement sent to the press, they voted against because, in their view, the EU doesn't have any legitimacy to approve or impose sanctions against Hungary. Although they say they are against Hungary's attacks on civil liberties and free speech, they also say the EU is one of the reasons this kind of actions occur in countries because, in the PCP words, "the deepening of the supranational character of the EU, and its policies, is paving the way for the advancement of the far right and fascist forces in Europe."

[warandwar]

What would the proposed tax do, Mike?

The idea of the tax, it seems, is to punish investors who buy for little and sell for 3, 4, 5 times higher than the original value. But, the problem, is that, currently, individuals who sell houses already pay a 50% tax on their profit if the house isn't for their own use, meaning the state already has 50% of what you earn in a sale. So, the tax idea fails to meet the point.

So, you can imagine how Rui Rio's reaction to the tax is being felt in the PSD ranks...

Sorry, I mean literally, what would it be taxing.

[Mike88]

What would the proposed tax do, Mike?

The idea of the tax, it seems, is to punish investors who buy for little and sell for 3, 4, 5 times higher than the original value. But, the problem, is that, currently, individuals who sell houses already pay a 50% tax on their profit if the house isn't for their own use, meaning the state already has 50% of what you earn in a sale. So, the tax idea fails to meet the point.

So, you can imagine how Rui Rio's reaction to the tax is being felt in the PSD ranks...

Sorry, I mean literally, what would it be taxing.

Profits of individuals who sell or buy houses in a short period for a lot of money. But, again, the details of the tax are unknown and it seems we'll never really know them.

At the same time, there is a war of words between PS and BE about the tax, with the PS saying it was never really discussed while BE says it was. And Rui Rio, PSD leader, unveiled his own idea: split the IRS tax on gains/profits between those who have housing properties for long periods, would pay almost 0%, and those who buy and sell just for profit in a short period.

[Mike88]

The last few days have been dominated by the internal row in the PSD:

After being silent for 31 days, he was on holiday, Rui Rio is under fire by his opposition in the PSD, but some of his supporters are also unhappy. September started with Rio being very aggressive towards the government but also his internal opposition. Last weekend, he even suggested that if there are people more willing to bring down the leader and hurt the party, then they should leave the PSD. This created a huge uproar in many parts of the party, and adding Rio's stance about the BE's "Robles tax, things escalated.


PSD national council meeting held last Wednesday.

Yesterday's PSD national council, the 3rd during Rio's leadership, was very tense with many criticisms towards Rio and his strategy. Many party members, who registered to speak, were very angry towards Rio because of his harsh words and accuse him of being, for example, "a general without troops". In fact, of the 9 people who registered to speak towards Rio, only 2 defended him. Also, there were criticisms for Rio's plan to sue PSD candidates who spent more, without permission, in local elections. These attacks seemed to not affect Rio. According to reports, he responded to very criticism and, talking to reporters before the meeting, when asked if he feared his internal opposition he replied "Ohh, i'm so scared", meaning he doesn't care about them.

But, it seems that Rio also heard some unpleasant words from members of his own team. According to Expresso newspaper, many of Rio's vice-presidents and supporters didn't like his vague reaction to the BE tax. Some accuse him of making a "shot in the foot" or of ideologically depriving the PSD.

Nonetheless, the PSD presented, today, their proposals towards the NHS and the Health sector. Presented by the PSD's "shadow minister of health", Luís Filipe Pereira, former minister of health 2002-2004, the party proposes more public-private partnerships (PPP) to run Hospitals. The PSD want to, progressively, give hospital management to private individuals, while the State continues to have a majority share.


A hospital waiting room in Portugal.

The party wants to increase competition between Hospitals and give more freedom of choice to people. The party says they want to save the NHS, saying that people don't care if health is private or public, people just want to be covered and treated, citting OCDE numbers that show Portugal as one of the countries where families pay more for healthcare. This health plan also divides the party. Some fear that the PSD will be accused of trying to privatize the NHS, an idea Rio refuses.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from September:

Vote share %:

41.4% PS (-0.6)
27.5% PSD (+0.2)
  8.0% BE (+0.1)
  7.7% CDS (+0.2)
  6.9% CDU (-0,4)
  1.1% PAN (n.c.)
  7.4% Others/Invalid (+0.5)

Popularity ratings: (approval/disapproval; margin and change)

73.0%/8.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa +64.3% (+0.1)
49.6%/15.9% António Costa +33.7% (-0.5)
39.7%/29.8% Rui Rio +9.9% (-1.0)
36.7%/31.5% Assunção Cristas +5.2% (-1.2)
32.2%/29.0% Jerónimo de Sousa +3.2% (-0.5)
31.9%/30.8% Catarina Martins +1.1% (-0.3)
30.1%/29.8% Government +0.3% (-1.5)

Poll conducted between 5 and 12 September 2018. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.09%

[Mike88]

More numbers from the Eurosondagem poll from September:

Q1: Do you think the government should accept teachers unions demands?

69.0% No
19.4% Yes
11.6% Undecided

Q2: Which party will be more affected by Santana Lopes new party, Alliance?

38.2% PSD
  9.9% CDS
  4.4% PS
36.6% Santana isn't a threat
10.9% Undecided

Q3: How do you rate Rui Rio's silence during the month of August, so criticized by pundits?

45.5% Normal
31.8% Wrong
13.9% Good idea
  8.8% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 12 September 2018. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.09%

Also, it seems that Costa will renominate Joana Marques Vidal for a second term as Attorney General. There was a huge pressure to renominate Ms Vidal, that came from PSD+CDS plus some of her predecessors. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was instrumental in persuading her to accept a second term.

In the PSD, the internal row continues. The internal opposition to Rio isn't backing down and they are looking for someone strong to stand against Rio in a possible leadership race before the 2019 elections. But, who? That's the problem. Luís Montenegro, the most likely successor of Rio, has repeatedly said that until 2020, he will not run. Carlos Moedas, European Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation, has also said he will not run before 2020, and that leaves Pedro Duarte, but his intentions were ignored since August. So, the next polling, it's still unclear how Santana's party will perform, and Rio's strategy will be crucial.


Rio and Casado shake hands in Lisbon.

Rui Rio met today with the leader of the Spanish PP, Pablo Casado. Casado will also meet with Assunção Cristas, CDS leader.

[Josecardoso17]

The Alliance seems irrelevant so far

[Mike88]

The Alliance seems irrelevant so far

I don't think pollsters are putting the Alliance alongside the other parties when they ask voters. Eurosondagem didn't asked, Aximage, well, that 2% increase in the others category could be the Alliance polling around 2-2.5%.

Nonetheless, it seems that Santana already has the 7,500 signatures to form his party and will deliver them to the Constitutional Court this week. The hard part comes next. The Court then has to analyze all the signatures, approve party rules and structures and that takes some time. My view is that the Alliance will only be legal by mid November or early December.

[Mike88]

Average of polls, Sep 2018:

Party trends since Oct. 2015:

From here.

Vote share %: (seat change compared with 2015)

40.9% PS, 114 seats (+28)
26.6% PSD, 72 (-17)
  8.2% BE, 16 (-3)
  8.2% CDS, 14 (-4)
  7.1% CDU, 14 (-3)
  1.2% PAN, 0 (-1)
  7.8% Others/Invalid

From here.

[Mike88]

A bit of comic relief:

Remember all the fuss when Obama wore that white suite? Well, today, António Costa had a similar moment. During his state visit to Angola, the PM appeared in Luanda airport and met with the foreign affairs minister of Angola in jeans, with a blazer and without a tie. The media is labelling this as weird and social media isn't forgiving Costa.

My favourite:

https://twitter.com/insoniascarvao/status/1041723328006905856

[Mike88]

Santana Lopes delivers more than 12,000 signatures to formalize his party, the Alliance:


Santana Lopes delivering signatures to legalize his party.

The Alliance, party founded by Pedro Santana Lopes, former PM, PSD leader and 4 times defeated for the PSD leadership, started, today, the official process of legalization by delivering more than 12,000 signatures. Santana Lopes himself delivered some signatures in the building of the Constitutional Court. Surrounded by some supporters but mainly friends, Santana said this was a happy day and that he will be tough towards everybody: the Government and the President of the Republic. He also said that his party will be "low cost" but "high profile and that he wants to create a "good mood in the country."

[Mike88]

After months of doubts, a decision about a new attorney-general has been announced:

It was one of the biggest political questions of this year: Would the current attorney-general (AG), Joana Marques Vidal, be nominated for a second term? The question divided left and right and the role of attorney-general jumped to the political arena, something uncommon in Portugal. The politicization of the role of the attorney-general was highly debated and criticized. For a time, it was reported by the media that Ms Vidal was willing to continue in her job and that Costa and Marcelo were on board. But, it seems that it was fake news, literally. Yesterday, the Presidency of the Republic announced that the new attorney-general will be Lucília Gago, Ms Vidal deputy.


Portugal's new attorney general, Lucília Gago.

All parties reacted to the nomination. The PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, didn't understand the change saying that if it was to have the same line of Ms Vidal, then she should have remained in office. Rio was in favour of the continuation of Ms Vidal as AG but was open to negotiate a new name with the government. The PS says the new AG will ensure the independence of the justice system, CDS, the most fierce supporter of a second term for Ms Vidal, hopes that the new AG will follows the same line of Ms Vidal, while CDU and BE criticized the politicization done by PSD and CDS of the nomination process.

One the harshest reactions came from Passos Coelho, former PM and PSD leader. Passos Coelho, who nominated Ms Vidal in 2012, said that there was a lack of "decency" to justify dropping Joana Marques Vidal and blamed Marcelo and Costa for the decision.

A poll, done by Eurosondagem and released a a week ago, showed how divided the electorate was towards a 2nd term for the current AG:

Q1: Should Joana Marques Vidal be nominated for a 2nd term?

44.4% No
43.8% Yes
11.8% Undecided

Q2: How do you rate the job of the current AG?

47.5% Acceptable
22.0% Good
  6.8% Very good
  4.8% Bad
18.9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 12 September 2018. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.09%

Another development, that is making headlines, is the current taxis protests:

More than 1,300 taxis have been blocking or delaying traffic in Lisbon, Porto and Faro to protest against the government's new bill that legalizes Uber and other similar platforms in Portugal. Taxi organizations say that the new bill could jeopardize more than 30,000 jobs in the taxi sector.


Taxis blocking a road in Faro city.

Taxi organizations have met with all parties in Parliament and found little or no support other than from PCP, which has already presented a motion to abolish the bill approved by the government with the support of PSD and CDS. The government has also refused any negotiations with taxi organizations. The protest started Thursday and has no end in sight.

[bigic]

Legalisation of Uber AFAIK is positive for employment, so even if some taxi jobs are lost, this would be compensated with Uber jobs. Also it's good for the consumer. The government shouldn't cave in to rentseekers.

[Mike88]

Legalisation of Uber AFAIK is positive for employment, so even if some taxi jobs are lost, this would be compensated with Uber jobs. Also it's good for the consumer. The government shouldn't cave in to rentseekers.

Everything points that the government will never cave to the demands of taxi organizations, even if it is pressured by PCP or BE. Public opinion is overwhelmingly against taxi organizations and the media are reporting, alongside the protests, the losing battle of the taxi drivers because people just don't care about their demands. A poll, from Eurosondagem done back in January, showed an overwhelming support for the legalization of Uber or other applications:

Q: Do you believe Parliament should approve a bill that legalizes Uber services in Portugal?

83.3% Yes
  4.4% No
12.3% Undecided

[Mike88]

André Ventura will launch a campaign to oust Rui Rio from the PSD leadership:


André Ventura during the 2017 election campaign.

André Ventura, the controversial PSD councillor from Loures, will start a campaign, called "Enough!," to oust Rui Rio from the PSD leadership. Ventura said to the press, a few days ago, that he was willing to collect 2,500 signatures to force a snap party congress to ditch Rio. The campaign will be an online website where PSD members and voters could subscribe. In a statement sent to the media, Ventura says the PSD should stop "being cozy to the center-left or the leftwing" or continue its war "against some members and party candidates". He also says the PSD should be anti-euthanasia, anti-gay marriage and stop being neutral towards minorities.

[Former President tack50]

If he is somehow succesful, I guess Antonio Costa will 100% get an overall majority? Either that or because of infighting CDS rises a lot