Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

If he is somehow succesful, I guess Antonio Costa will 100% get an overall majority? Either that or because of infighting CDS rises a lot

It remains to be seen what kind of success this could have. Yes, he could get the 2,500 signatures to force a snap party congress, in a party with more than 130,000 members that's quite easy, but, who would face Rio? Luís Montenegro, the strongest challenger against Rio, is being pressured to face Rio but, until now, he's planning to run just after the 2019 general elections. Ventura himself isn't a real contender in a snap leadership race because he's not a very popular figure within the PSD. Plus, Ventura says he wants PSD district structures to join his campaign but, just last week, all PSD district parties, except Lisbon, signed a document in which they pledge loyalty and support to Rio and ask for the internal infighting to stop.

Of course, PS and CDS are smiling as they see all of this. PS, because with a divided PSD, they can win a majority easily, and CDS because the dream of becoming Portugal's second largest party could become a reality, although it's still a very, very, very remote possibility. Also, there's the possibility that many people in the PSD who oppose Rio don't want Ventura to be successful, as they want Rio to lose catastrophically the 2019 elections and reshape the PSD. A snap PSD congress without no real alternative against Rio would only strength Rui Rio and could damage irremediably his opposition. Rio could be last PSD leader that comes from the "Social Democratic" wing of the party, and many in the "Liberal" wing would be happy to see Rio lead the party to the 2019 elections and be humiliated. It would be a way for them to take overall control of the party for good. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Two controversies surrounding the government this week, one more than the other:

The first, reported today, has less impact on the government, but even so. The Police has arrested many army officials and police officials for allegedly covering up the famous Tancos air base robbery of July 2017. The police suspects that the police branch of the army (PJM) falsified the investigation of the robbery in 2017. According to the police, the PJM, and also some police officials, knew who was the real culprit of the robbery was, but they, instead, helped him give back the stolen weapons and, at the same time, covered up any trace of him. According to Público newspaper, the culprit is a 45 year old man, already referenced for drug traffic.


Tancos air base, Santarém district.

This creates a bit of discomfort for the government, particularly for the minister of defense, Azeredo Lopes. For months, the minister has been very vague and inconsistent with his statements about the event, which have created huge criticisms, particularly from the PSD and their leader, Rui Rio.

The second, has a clear impact on the government because it's, literally, a trainwreck. A few months ago, out of the blue, the government announced that the headquarters of Infarmed, Portugal main medicines and health products supervisor, would be transferred from Lisbon to Porto. The government and the health minister forgot to announce this to the administration and the workers of Infarmed. Against the wishes of the workers, the minister of health, Adalberto Campos Ferreira, pressed on the idea of transferring the headquarters in order to promote decentralization of governmental agencies, a hot topic in Portugal. There were studies that showed moving Infarmed to Porto would be more efficient financially. But, this week, the government stopped everything. The health minister said that, after all, Infarmed would not move to Porto and it will continue in Lisbon, because of the... workers.


Infarmed building in Lisbon.

North and Porto politicians, particularly Rui Moreira, mayor of Porto, were furious by the, again, sudden decision of the government. Rui Moreira was very harsh saying that "Once again, the political class was succumbed by the power of the state", and that Costa didn't kept his promises to him and the people of Porto.

[Mike88]

Interesting development in the Sócrates case:

Today, a new judge was selected to analyze if José Sócrates and others, involved in the Marquês case, will go forward to trial or if the case is dropped. The judge selected is Ivo Rosa, the favourite of Sócrates, Ricardo Salgado and others. The other possible judge was Carlos Alexandre, the man who accused José Sócrates of 31 crimes including corruption, fraud, money laundering and others.

If the Sócrates case is dropped, the political consequences would be huge for all parties, but especially to the PS. Developments to watch closely, particularly because we're entering an election year.

[Mike88]

PSD-Azores chooses the man that will face Vasco Cordeiro in 2020:


The 2 candidates: Alexandre Gaudêncio (left), Pedro Nascimento Cabral (right).

Members of PSD-Azores are voting today for a new leader. The previous leader, Duarte Freitas, resigned in July saying he didn't had political grounds to continue as leader. There are 2 candidates: Alexandre Gaudêncio, the popular mayor of the 3rd largest city in Azores, Ribeira Grande, and Pedro Nascimento Cabral, a big critic of Duarte Freitas leadership. The new leader will face the incumbent president of the region, Vasco Cordeiro (PS), in 2020. The PSD is out of power in Azores since 1996. Results will be released during Saturday night.

[Mike88]

PSD-Azores chooses the man that will face Vasco Cordeiro in 2020:


The 2 candidates: Alexandre Gaudêncio (left), Pedro Nascimento Cabral (right).

Members of PSD-Azores are voting today for a new leader. The previous leader, Duarte Freitas, resigned in July saying he didn't had political grounds to continue as leader. There are 2 candidates: Alexandre Gaudêncio, the popular mayor of the 3rd largest city in Azores, Ribeira Grande, and Pedro Nascimento Cabral, a big critic of Duarte Freitas leadership. The new leader will face the incumbent president of the region, Vasco Cordeiro (PS), in 2020. The PSD is out of power in Azores since 1996. Results will be released during Saturday night.

Alexandre Gaudêncio wins PSD-Azores leadership election:

60.9% 1,716 Alexandre Gaudêncio
37.5% 1,058 Pedro Nascimento Cabral
  1.6%      46 Blank/Invalid ballots

[Mike88]

Political update:

Leading up to 2019, political leaders are starting to give big interviews to the media and António Costa gave one last night. The interview, broadcast by TVI, was conducted in São Bento Palace, the official residence of the PM. In the interview, Costa talked about the budget, taxes, strikes, the choice of the new Attorney General (AG), and the possible electoral outcomes in 2019: Overall, the interview can be summed in a few points:


António Costa giving an interview to TVI.

- The 2019 budget: Costa said that negotiations, between BE and CDU, are going well, adding that the recovery of families incomes will continue and that the budget will not be an "electoral" one;

- Taxes/Pensions: IRS taxes will be lowered with the end of the IRS surcharge and with the creation of some new IRS grades. On the other hand, taxes in electricity and others, that were somewhat expected to be lowered, will remain untouched. Pensions will also be increased. According to the PM, 98% of pensions will be increased and 68% above inflation.

- Public workers: Costa hinted that wages for Public workers could increase but was vague on how many would see that increase. According to him, there is around 50 million euros for public workers.

- The new AG: The PM says that there weren't no problems in finding a successor for the current attorney-general, Joana Marques Vidal. He added that the new name, Lucília Gago, is a consensual name.

- 2019 outcomes: The PM refuses any coalition ideas with the PSD and says that is bad for democracy for the two main parties to be in coalition. He adds he's happy with the current arrangement, but isn't willing to include BE or CDU politicians in a future PS government.

- Pedrógão Grande and Tancos scandals: About Pedrógão Grande, the PM says that all cases need to be investigated by the police and the DA office, and about Tancos, Costa says that the government did everything they could and defended his minister of defence, refusing calls for his resignation.

- Time change: It seems that Portugal will continue in the old system, one time for the summer and another for winter. The PM said that science says it's the best option and who is he to go against science.

Political parties already reacted to Costa's interview. PSD and CDS said that Costa wasted people's time with an interview where he offered "a hand full of nothing" to the country. PCP reacted saying that it will be very difficult to be part of a second PS cabinet and that the differences between both parties are becoming bigger and bigger. BE didn't liked many of Costa stances in the interview, but will continue negotiating, with the PS, the 2019 budget.  

Full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZM5YxDCw-Qg
(It can be translated from Português to Inglês)

The next party leader to give an interview is Rui Rio, PSD leader, this Thursday on RTP1.

[Mike88]

The Tancos scandal just hit the government with full force:

The Tancos air base robbery scandal just dropped in the government like a bomb. Today, newspapers started reporting that the Defense minister, Azeredo Lopes, and his secretary knew about the alleged cover up to find the stolen weapons and the name of the alleged robber of the weapons. The minister and his secretary, according to the media, knew about this in December and hid the information. The revelation was made in court by one investigator of the military police who was arrested.


Azeredo Lopes, Defense minister.

The minister has already denied he had any knowledge of the case, and Costa has already said he has "full confidence in the Defense minister". Parties have already reacted to this. Rui Rio, PSD leader, said that if he was PM, the minister would he exonerated immediately. CDS is willing to call Costa himself to testify in a committee in Parliament, while BE and PCP want the defense minister to testify in Parliament.

The big question, if the accusations are true, is how long will the defense minister last in office.

[Mike88]

Political update:

Today marks the 108th anniversary of the implantation of the republic, but celebrations were overshadowed by the Tancos scandal, involving the minister of defense, and the teachers protests in Lisbon. In the Republic commemorations in Lisbon city hall, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic (PR), said that "there isn't democracy without democrats and without giving the proper attention to the armed forces", clearly alluding to the Tancos scandal. The PR warned also of the dangers of neglecting the armed forces, citting examples from the past, and said also "everyday we built or destroy democracy".


The President of the Republic giving his speech in Lisbon city hall.

Arriving at the ceremony, António Costa was received, far behind, with protests from teachers unions and with many reporters making questions about the future of the defense minister. Costa, once again, reaffirmed his confidence in the defense minister adding that both the minister and his former secretary have denied any previous knowledge of the cover up. Nonetheless, the PM said that there are still many questions to be answered.


Teachers protests in front of the Finance ministry.

Like i said above, teachers unions ended a 4 day strike with a rally against the government in Lisbon. Many teachers from across the country protested in Lisbon against the government's plan to only count 2 years of the teachers progressions and past salaries rather than 9 years. According to the police, more than 20,000 teachers protested in Lisbon. Teachers unions will sue the government and will put forward a complaint against the government to the International Labor Organization.

Yesterday was also the interview of Rui Rio, PSD leader, on RTP1. The interview was mainly dominated with national affairs, with Rio demanding the resignation of the defense minister saying "if and when i am PM, and if the allegations are true, the minister would be sacked immediately". Rio also said that he's on the teachers unions side saying "the government promissed something that they couldn't keep and that's wrong". He also acknowledged that the PSD isn't in a good moment right know, but he believes that by September 2019, the PSD will be neck and neck with the PS. He also said he wants to win the 2019 elections and asked for his critics to stop because their only helping the PS.


Rui Rio in a interview to RTP1/RTP3.

With André Ventura's campaign still ongoing, it seems he has around 3,000 signatures of PSD voters and members, many of the possible candidates against Rio are saying that Rio should lead the party on to the 2019 elections and refuse a snap leadership contest. Ventura's campaign could be condemn to be a failure, but, many development could still shake things up. We'll see.

[Mike88]

André Ventura plans to suspend his campaign to bring down Rui Rio after all PSD local/district structures refused to support him:


André Ventura in a campaign event in 2017.

André Ventura is planning to stop his campaign to bring down Rui Rio after all PSD party structures, local and district, refused to support him. He's also thinking of resigning from his post as councillor from Loures city. Mr Ventura says he's disappointed with Luís Montenegro, Rio's strongest opponent, because he said that the party needs unity and maturity, and that Rio should lead the party on to the 2019 elections. Ventura added that he also feels like he was "stabbed in the back" by all PSD party structures particularly PSD-Loures and PSD-Lisbon, which totally refused any support to his campaign and pledge total support to Rui Rio.  

Rui Rio may have just had a huge sigh of relief.

[Mike88]

Marmeleiro parish, Guarda, local by-election this Sunday:


Location of Marmeleiro parish in Guarda municipality.

A total of 478 registered voters are being called, today, to elect a new parish assembly in Marmeleiro parish, Guarda. The previous PSD minority assembly fell after disagreements between PSD and PS/CDS on the composition of the parish government. Marmeleiro is a PSD bastion in general elections, it has voted PSD or in PSD-led coalitions in all general elections since 1979, but in parish elections it is a swing parish. It has been run by CDS, Independents, PS and, since 2005, by the PSD. Only PSD and CDS have submitted candidates for this by-election.

This will be the last local by-election this year, probably.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Question:

Why were the turnouts in the 1998 and 2007 Abortion Referendums in Portugal so low?

[Mike88]

Question:

Why were the turnouts in the 1998 and 2007 Abortion Referendums in Portugal so low?

Referendums in Portugal have always very low turnout rates. It's one of the main reasons that everytime there's a discussion about a possible referendum about something, gay marriage, euthanasia, you name it, pundits and politicians raise to, basically, say it's useless and a waste of money to hold referendums.

Now, the 1998 referendum had low turnout because it was held on a hot summer day and because voters just didn't care, i believe. In 2007, the history was somewhat similar, although turnout increased to 44%, against the 32% in 1998. But, overall, voters just don't care about referendums and the issues that are brought up in those referendum. Even the Nov. 1998 regionalization referendum only had a 48% turnout.

[Mike88]

Marmeleiro parish by-election: PSD hold

52.9% PSD (+10.3), 4 seats (+1)
41.6% CDS (+6.0), 3 (nc)
  5.5% Invalid/Blank (-1.7)

62.9% Turnout (+3.7)

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from October:

Vote share %:

38.9% PS (-1.0)
24.0% PSD (-0.1)
  9.2% CDS (nc)
  9.1% BE (+1.3)
  7.4% CDU (+0.3)
  9.4% Others/Invalid (-0.6)
  2.0% Undecided (+0.1)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

10.8 António Costa (-1.1)
  9.8 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
  9.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
  8.8 Assunção Cristas (+0.7)
  8.3 Rui Rio (-0.9)

Preferred PM:

55.3% António Costa (-2.3)
30.1% Rui Rio (+2.1)

Poll conducted between 1 and 3 October 2018. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

After being ignored by everybody in the PSD, André Ventura will leave the PSD and form a new social conservative party:


André Ventura in a PSD rally for the 2017 local elections.

After his campaign to remove Rui Rio from the PSD leadership failed, no major PSD figures nor any PSD local structure wanted to be associated with him or his campaign, André Ventura is now leaving the PSD. The still councillor from Loures wants to form a new party called "Enough!" and its main policies will be forbiding same sex marriages, introducing life sentences and implementing chemical castration of pedophiles. It will also be, according to him, a full liberal party in terms of economics.

[VPH]

After being ignored by everybody in the PSD, André Ventura will leave the PSD and form a new social conservative party:


André Ventura in a PSD rally for the 2017 local elections.

After his campaign to remove Rui Rio from the PSD leadership failed, no major PSD figures nor any PSD local structure wanted to be associated with him or his campaign, André Ventura is now leaving the PSD. The still councillor from Loures wants to form a new party called "Enough!" and its main policies will be forbiding same sex marriages, introducing life sentences and implementing chemical castration of pedophiles. It will also be, according to him, a full liberal party in terms of economics.

This combined with Santana Lopes' new party is pretty hilarious. The right looks a bit in disarray due to Rui Rio. Neither one of my grandfathers likes Rio, and my maternal grandfather (who votes at the consulate) says he will back Santana Lopes' party if it gains traction.

[crals]

Honestly these defections only made it more likely for me to vote for PSD.

[Former President tack50]

After being ignored by everybody in the PSD, André Ventura will leave the PSD and form a new social conservative party:


André Ventura in a PSD rally for the 2017 local elections.

After his campaign to remove Rui Rio from the PSD leadership failed, no major PSD figures nor any PSD local structure wanted to be associated with him or his campaign, André Ventura is now leaving the PSD. The still councillor from Loures wants to form a new party called "Enough!" and its main policies will be forbiding same sex marriages, introducing life sentences and implementing chemical castration of pedophiles. It will also be, according to him, a full liberal party in terms of economics.

Will it get any traction? Also, will it be just a socially conservative party, or will it also try to become some sort of right wing populist party? (being against inmigration and the like)

[Mike88]

This combined with Santana Lopes' new party is pretty hilarious. The right looks a bit in disarray due to Rui Rio. Neither one of my grandfathers likes Rio, and my maternal grandfather (who votes at the consulate) says he will back Santana Lopes' party if it gains traction.

Well, André Ventura isn't comparable with Santana. Santana could have a lot of credibility issues, but he was still admired by many in the PSD. That's not the case with Ventura. He was relatively unknown until he made the "romani/gypsy remarks" in the 2017 election campaign. Since then, many in the PSD want distance from him and his departure is more about the lack of acknowledgement from Luís Montenegro and others, than Rui Rio himself. Rui Rio isn't perfect, i my self a regular PSD voter, supported him in the primaries earlier this year, and i acknowledge that he is sometimes a bit awkward and inconsistent, but his internal opposition is also tiring. It seems they have toned down a bit, elections are just around the corner of course, but Rio will have to prove his tough in campaigning. The EU elections will be a critical test for him.

Will it get any traction? Also, will it be just a socially conservative party, or will it also try to become some sort of right wing populist party? (being against inmigration and the like)

Most likely not. Like i said above, Ventura isn't Santana. He doesn't have the connections or the popularity, in party ranks, that Santana has, or had. And creating a party, at least in Portugal, is hard work. You have to collect a minimum of 7,500 signatures, write very precise party rules and have a good structure. You also need money. Santana clearly has, Ventura, well, i doubt but, who knows.

Ventura, if his party, goes ahead, would lead a right-wing populist party, focused on law and order, end political correctness, against abortion, gay marriage, etc. Immigration isn't an issue in Portugal. Unlike the rest of Europe, we need more immigrants to maintain the population stable and to have new minds and people in our economy. Ventura himself is in favour of more immigration to Portugal.

Honestly these defections only made it more likely for me to vote for PSD.

Good to see you back, Crals. Would like to hear your thoughts on how is Azores politics right now. The PSD-Azores just elected a new leader. How do you rate him? Do you think he has any chances against Vasco Cordeiro in 2020?

[Mike88]

More updates in the Tancos scandal:

It was reported yesterday, and during today, that unlike initial reports, the former chief of staff of the minister of defense, Azeredo Lopes, had info that the recovery of the Tancos base weapons was all a cover-up and a hoax. The former chief of staff had, in fact, the info since mid 2017, and, initially, he denied any knowledge. He has already sent the documents, after the press reported their existence, to the DA office, but lawyers involved in the case say that the former chief of staff of the minister of defense may had committed several crimes and want him questioned.

Azeredo Lopes' position as minister is becoming more and more unstable.

[Mike88]

Average of polls and projected seats:

Vote share and seats: (seats compared with 2015)
(116 for a majority)

40.5% PS, 112 seats (+26)
26.1% PSD, 71 (-18)
  8.7% BE, 17 (-2)
  8.5% CDS, 16 (-2)
  7.2% CDU, 14 (-3)
  1.1% PAN, 0 (-1)
  7.9% Others/Invalid

From here.

[Republican Left]

After being ignored by everybody in the PSD, André Ventura will leave the PSD and form a new social conservative party:


André Ventura in a PSD rally for the 2017 local elections.

After his campaign to remove Rui Rio from the PSD leadership failed, no major PSD figures nor any PSD local structure wanted to be associated with him or his campaign, André Ventura is now leaving the PSD. The still councillor from Loures wants to form a new party called "Enough!" and its main policies will be forbiding same sex marriages, introducing life sentences and implementing chemical castration of pedophiles. It will also be, according to him, a full liberal party in terms of economics.

Wouldn't joining the CDS be a more practical move?

[Mike88]

Wouldn't joining the CDS be a more practical move?

Not really, because the CDS hates his guts. They withdrew their support from him in 2017 and since then want nothing to do with him.

Also, big news yesterday: Azeredo Lopes, defense minister, resigned.

The minister of defense, Azeredo Lopes, tendered his resignation to the PM, this Friday, in order to prevent wearing the armed forces. Azeredo Lopes was in the middle of a very complicated scandal involving the robbery and subsequent discovery of weapons from Tancos air base, Santarém district. In the letter he continues to deny any knowledge of the cover-up and did absolutely nothing to protect the robbers. António Costa accepted the resignation of Mr. Lopes and in a statement sent to the press, he thanked the minister for the service to his country.


António Costa and Azeredo Lopes hugging during the swearing in of the new AG.

Azeredo Lopes was seen with the PM, on Friday morning, in the swearing in of the new Attorney General (AG), and hours later he announced his resignation. Party leaders have already reacted to the resignation. Rui Rio, PSD leader, said that Mr. Lopes resignation only failed to be late and that he showed more sense of duty than António Costa.

[Lord Halifax]

Wouldn't joining the CDS be a more practical move?

Not really, because the CDS hates his guts. They withdrew their support from him in 2017 and since then want nothing to do with him.

Why is that?

[Mike88]

Wouldn't joining the CDS be a more practical move?

Not really, because the CDS hates his guts. They withdrew their support from him in 2017 and since then want nothing to do with him.

Why is that?

They didn't liked his comments about the gypsy/romani community in Portugal and immediately withdrew their support from him in the 2017 elections, and started campaigning against him. Cristas pressured the CDS-Loures to drop their support to Ventura because she doesn't want CDS candidates, or CDS supported candidates, to say or defend comments that could be labeled as racist.