Portugal's politics and elections

[Babeuf]

What is the relationship between BE and cDU like?

Not very good. One feels threatened by the other, and because they compete for a similar or the same section of the electorate, they tend to campaign pretty much against each other, sometimes in a very, very ugly way.

The tension between both of them is a constant threat to the PS minority government.

What are the major tensions between the two?

[Mike88]

What is the relationship between BE and cDU like?

Not very good. One feels threatened by the other, and because they compete for a similar or the same section of the electorate, they tend to campaign pretty much against each other, sometimes in a very, very ugly way.

The tension between both of them is a constant threat to the PS minority government.

What are the major tensions between the two?

There aren't major policy differences, altought there is a difference between an Orthodox communist party like the PCP and a Trotsky party like the BE, but it's more the space that the BE is holding right now that creates the tension. For example, the PS finds much more easy to negotiate with the BE, which gives them more power to announce or discuss policies, while the PCP is much harder in negotiations and also wants the upper hand in the negotiations, particularly in relation to the unions. This is one reason wky the PS negotiates separately between the two parties

In summary, the PCP doesn't like the power and the news attention that the BE has. They feel that they are occupying their space as the dominant anti-system, prostest party in Portugal.

One example of this tension was on the presidential election night in January. While delivering his speech, as the PCP candidate achieve the worst result in the history of the party, Jerónimo de Sousa said that the party could have chosen a cute "engraçadinha" candidate but we don't want to change. Of course this was a cheesy mouth to BE candidate, Marisa Matias, who got 10% of the vote.

[Mike88]

New poll from Eurosondagem to SIC and Expresso

PS: 36,3% (+0,3%)
PSD: 30,7% (-1,4%)
BE: 9,5% (+0,6%)
CDU: 8,3% (+0,2%)
CDS: 7,0% (+0,1%)
PAN: 1,3% (-0,2%)
Others: 6,9% (+0,4%)

MoE: 3,08%
Conducted between 6 and 12 October. Polled 1,010 voters.

Link.

[Mike88]

Today, the 2017 budget will be delivered in Parliament by the Finance minister, Mário Centeno. But during the morning, the Prime Minister announced some policies included in the budget. The PM announced that the so called "Mortágua Tax", that will tax properties above 600,000 euros, will finance Social Security and generate an annual revenue of about 170 million euros; Indirect taxes will increase, again, on tobacco, alcohol, and on cars; Plus a new "fat tax" will be created to finance the National Heathcare Service, they say of course, that will target sugar drinks but is yet to be know if this for all sugar drinks or only foreign sugar drinks. Also, the meal allowance will rise for the first time since 2009; and the controversial extra tax on the IRS, will not disappear in January 2017, as promissed, but phased during the next year.
As i said the budget will be presented in Parliament today, at 5 o'clock, and by then more details will be know.
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-10-13-Oito-certezas-sobre-o-Orcamento-que-ai-vem

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

btw what's your thoughts on the new UN SG?

[Mike88]

btw what's your thoughts on the new UN SG?

Guterres was destined to do this. He is a good person and an extraordinary humanitarian, as his work as refugee commissioner and his handling of the East Timor crisis in the 90's proves. On the other hand, as a prime minister he was quite bad.

[Mike88]

Apparently the Budget is not yet closed. The PS and BE/PCP are still working on many points in budget. And at the same time, the whole budget, all 300 pages, has been leaked to the press. In good portuguese fashion everthing is done at the last minute.

http://www.tvi24.iol.pt/economia/oe2017/negociacoes-de-ultima-hora-entre-governo-e-pcp-atrasam-orcamento

[Mike88]

Finance Minister finally announced the Budget numbers for 2017. The government projects the economy to grow 1.5% (still down from the 1.6% in 2015); The deficit will stand at 1.6%; Public debt will stand at 128.3% (the government also projects that the public debt figure in 2016 will stood at 129.7%, 0.7% higher than is 2015) and the unemployment rate will continue to fall standing at 10.3%.

The government also annouced budget cuts of around 1100 millions euros, to reduce the estrutural deficit from 1,7% this year to 1,1% in 2017. This is a clear cession to the EU and will afect intermediate spending, which will fall from 2.5% to 0.8% in 2017. Plus, the so called, "Mortágua Tax" will be paid in September and it exclude properties involving business and tourism.
IRS tables will be updated to 0.8%, but if inflacion is above that taxpayers will pay more tax; and pensions to around 628 euros will rise 10 euros, but only after August; The "fat tax" will tax all sugar drinks which have 50% or more of sugar in their content.
 

[crals]

Hi, long time lurker here. I'm glad there's finally a thread for my country, thank you Mike88. As an Azorean I'd like to share my feelings about today's election.

PS have been in power for too long. They have cast a clientelistic net over the archipelago that ensures that this will remain the case, at least for now. People will vote for PS because they've done so all their lives or because they/their relatives are employed by the regional government or receive benefits from it. There's no appetite for change, older people still remember the period of PSD's dominance, which they say was no better, and many younger people such as myself live outside the islands to study or work, and can't be hassled by the bureaucracy of early voting. Apathy and the certainty of the result will lead to low turnout as usual. The relative popularity of the national PS government will further help PS (although the budget presentation yesterday may have an effect but that's unlikely), as well as the fact that PSD's candidate isn't well known (being a MEP) and that the policies proposed by PSD and CDS are virtually indistinguishable from those of PS. 4 years ago PSD's candidate was the popular Mayor of Ponta Delgada Berta Cabral, but the unpopularity of the national PSD/CDS government killed her chances. This whole situation of no alternance of power is frustrating for me, hence this rant, but the silver lining is that the government in the end isn't that bad and PSD might be worse.

I'm not voting because I am in the mainland and I missed the deadline for early voting, but if I did I'd probably vote for PAN because I appreciate their trolling of the bullfighters.

[aross]

Fairly minor, but what's up with that PPM seat on Corvo?

[Mike88]

Hi there crals!

Welcome to the forum and thank you for your thoughts on today's Azores election.

I live in mainland Portugal and i do not know a lot about Azores and frankly the election was just unknown to people here in mainland, it just passed by and no one noticed. But, personally, i think that because Azores is one of Portugal's poorest regions, with a high poverty rate, the biggest in the country i think, and a high dependency in government subsdies, are some of the reasons the PS is so strong here. In the long run, Azores will probally be the PS "Madeira".

[Mike88]

Fairly minor, but what's up with that PPM seat on Corvo?

Frankly, i don't know. The seat is from Corvo, an island with 350 people, but the PPM is quite strong there, even in general elections.

[Mike88]

Well, the Azores election is today. Voters will renovate the 57 seat chamber and, in effect, elect the President of the Government.

There are 228,160 registered voters and polls will close at 19:00 Azores Time (20:00 in Lisbon)

This is the site that during the night will post the official results:
http://www.vpgr.azores.gov.pt/sites/alr2016/escrutinio

Also turnout is turning out to be very, very low. At 11:00 (midday in Lisbon) only 7,47% of the electorate had cast a ballot, lower than 10,34% that had already voted in 2012.

[crals]

Fairly minor, but what's up with that PPM seat on Corvo?

PPM is the only party whose regional leader/top candidate is from Corvo, and they focus much of their campaigning there to get him elected.

[crals]

Hi there crals!

Welcome to the forum and thank you for your thoughts on today's Azores election.

I live in mainland Portugal and i do not know a lot about Azores and frankly the election was just unknown to people here in mainland, it just passed by and no one noticed. But, personally, i think that because Azores is one of Portugal's poorest regions, with a high poverty rate, the biggest in the country i think, and a high dependency in government subsdies, are some of the reasons the PS is so strong here. In the long run, Azores will probally be the PS "Madeira".

Thank you!

I know, we are not as noisy as the Madeirans:P

Yes, despite being the more conservative part of the country the Azores lean very much to the left. PSD have tried to counter this by moving to the left as well, but I guess when the national party says one thing and the regional party says another people get suspicious.

[Mike88]

At 16:00 Azores time (17:00 in Lisbon) 29,29% of the electorate had cast a ballot. At this time in 2012, 34,37% had voted.

This is election will probably have the lowest turnout in the history of regional elections in Azores, breaking the 2008 record low of 46,6%.

[Mike88]

One hour left until polls close.
At the top of the hour, RTP Açores will revealed an exit poll commissioned by Universidade Católica. It polled 6,000 voters in the Islands of São Miguel and Terceira.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder what the effect geopolitical wrangling between China and the US in the Azores has on the ground?

[Mike88]

RTP Açores turnout projection: 38%-43%

Lowest turnout is Azores regional election history.

Link:
http://www.rtp.pt/acores/politica/eleicoes-nos-acores-abstencao-devastadora-_51690

[Mike88]

RTP Açores exit poll:

PS: 50-55% 31/35
PSD: 27-31% 17/21
CDS: 5-7% 2/3
BE: 2-4% 0/1
CDU:1-3% 0/1
PAN: 1-3% 0/1
PPM: 0-1% 0/1

Turnout: 38-43%

[Mike88]

First resuts: 2,56% counted

PSD: 42,7%
PS: 35,5%
CDS: 9,8%
CDU: 5,6%
BE: 1,8%

Turnout: 53,5%

[Mike88]

42% counted

PS: 47,6% 2
PSD: 29,1%
CDS: 9,0%
BE: 3,2%
CDU: 2,9%

Turnout: 43,2%

[Mike88]

58% counted

PS: 47,8% 4
PSD: 29,7% 2
CDS: 7,8%
BE: 3,3%
CDU: 2,4%

Turnout: 41,1%

[Mike88]

Final Results:

PS: 46,4% 30 (-1)
PSD: 30,9% 19 (-1)
CDS: 7,2% 4 (+1)
BE: 3,7% 2 (+1)
CDU: 2,6% 1 (-)
PAN: 1,4%
PPM: 0,9% 1 (-)

Turnout: 40,8%

[Mike88]

My thoughts on the Azores results:
The PS maintained their majority but it is a bitter victory, as the PS lost one seat and was the party that drooped more in votes compared to 2012. This was the worst result for the PS, in vote share, since 1996; The PSD, well, they maintained their vote share, 31%, lost one seat, but in summary not a great result but however better than expectations; great result for CDS-PP, increasing their vote share and also in seats. This is very good news for Assunção Cristas; BE, like the PSD, maintained their electorate but, in this case, gain one seat; CDU also had a great result, increasing their vote share and winning in the island of Flores; PAN showing it that their here to stay and PPM maintained their seat in Corvo as expected.  

Turnout was the bad news, only 40,8% voted, the lowest turnout ever.

PS: Fun fact: This is the first victory of António Costa as secretary-general of the PS.